Apple forecast to sell 28M iPads in 2011, chipping away at PC sales
Apple's competitively priced iPad is expected to reduce sales of low-end notebook PCs in 2011, when consumers are projected to buy at least 28 million of the touchscreen tablet, one analyst believes.
Maynard Um with UBS Investment Research issued a note to investors this week, in which he increased his price target for AAPL stock to $350, up from $340. He said there is no evidence that the iPad is having a negative effect on Mac sales, but it is "adversely affecting the PC industry."
"Sales of traditional notebooks appear to be feeling pressure from the iPad, causing a scramble by vendors to launch iPad-like tablets," Um wrote. "We believe that a majority of this impact is occurring on the lower end of PC sales as the iPad is priced close enough to this range that it becomes attractive to consumers looking to make purchases within this segment."
He continued: "We are not sold that the iPad is purely cannibalizing PC sales, as the functionality of the iPad cannot yet deliver the functionality of notebook PCs. However, consumers who purchase iPads may be more willing to delay purchases and upgrades of existing PCs."
Um sees Apple selling 28 million iPads in 2011, a number he cautioned could be "conservative."
Um's note was issued as another report indicated that the popularity of the iPad is helping to drive down the prices of digital random access memory in PCs. Devices like the iPad are less reliant on DRAM than a traditional notebook or desktop PC, and Samsung warned this week that there is currently an oversupply of memory in the market due to weakening PC sales.
Um also reiterated rumors that Apple will launch a new CDMA-compatible iPhone 4 in January of 2011. He has raised his sales forecast for the calendar year to include a CDMA option on potential carriers like Verizon in the U.S., bringing his estimate for 2011 to 52 million units.
"We continue to favor product plays such as Apple as the company should have some of the most highly sought after products in the holiday quarter," Um wrote. "Despite tough economic conditions, consumers remain willing to pay for innovation Despite increasing competition in smartphones and that which is soon to come in tablets, Apple's ability to keep its products fresh and innovative gives us confidence in our estimates going forward."
Maynard Um with UBS Investment Research issued a note to investors this week, in which he increased his price target for AAPL stock to $350, up from $340. He said there is no evidence that the iPad is having a negative effect on Mac sales, but it is "adversely affecting the PC industry."
"Sales of traditional notebooks appear to be feeling pressure from the iPad, causing a scramble by vendors to launch iPad-like tablets," Um wrote. "We believe that a majority of this impact is occurring on the lower end of PC sales as the iPad is priced close enough to this range that it becomes attractive to consumers looking to make purchases within this segment."
He continued: "We are not sold that the iPad is purely cannibalizing PC sales, as the functionality of the iPad cannot yet deliver the functionality of notebook PCs. However, consumers who purchase iPads may be more willing to delay purchases and upgrades of existing PCs."
Um sees Apple selling 28 million iPads in 2011, a number he cautioned could be "conservative."
Um's note was issued as another report indicated that the popularity of the iPad is helping to drive down the prices of digital random access memory in PCs. Devices like the iPad are less reliant on DRAM than a traditional notebook or desktop PC, and Samsung warned this week that there is currently an oversupply of memory in the market due to weakening PC sales.
Um also reiterated rumors that Apple will launch a new CDMA-compatible iPhone 4 in January of 2011. He has raised his sales forecast for the calendar year to include a CDMA option on potential carriers like Verizon in the U.S., bringing his estimate for 2011 to 52 million units.
"We continue to favor product plays such as Apple as the company should have some of the most highly sought after products in the holiday quarter," Um wrote. "Despite tough economic conditions, consumers remain willing to pay for innovation Despite increasing competition in smartphones and that which is soon to come in tablets, Apple's ability to keep its products fresh and innovative gives us confidence in our estimates going forward."
Comments
That number sounds pretty optimistic to me. That's almost as many iPhones as Apple has sold in the last 4 quarters, and the iPhone is a more established product with a lower price. I'd be surprised if they sold 20 of them million in 2011, although I guess it depends on what they change in its first revision.
If you look at the two quarters the iPad has sold what are the numbers compared to the iPhone at that same time frame? Which iPhone is most comparable to the current iPhone sales? I can't look it up now but I think the iPad is already as good as the iPhone 3GS. Perhaps better if we account for the iPad rollout. (will look up stats later today if no one beats me to it)
edit: Okay, here are some and dirty figures.By comparison, the first holiday season for the original iPhone only sold 2.3 million units. They are apparently selling 2 million per month now and still haven?t completed the roll out? Is that correct? iOS 4.x and the G2 iPad with a FaceTime camera surely won?t hurt sales. 2 million x 12 equals 24 million, without accounting for holiday growth or year over year growth of the product. I think 28 million may be low now that I?ve looked at these numbers.
Once again, Apple leads and the rest "scramble" to catch up.
GQB — No, putting the antenna on the outside to improve reception was a brilliant idea. Putting it into the hands of self-righteous idiots was the big mistake.
Love your quote! Here's to intelligent technology users.
That number sounds pretty optimistic to me. That's almost as many iPhones as Apple has sold in the last 4 quarters, and the iPhone is a more established product with a lower price. I'd be surprised if they sold 20 of them million in 2011, although I guess it depends on what they change in its first revision.
While I agree that 28M is overly optimistic, you can't fairly compare iPads sales to iPhones sales. I think you have to compare iPad sales to iPhone + iPod Touch sales, because the iPad can be either a big iPod Touch or a big iPhone (minus voice calling) depending on which model the buyer chooses.
Apple's competitively priced iPad...
don't get me wrong, i love ours, and i'm psyched about the numbers, but this thing is $$$.
If you look at the two quarters the iPad has sold what are the numbers compared to the iPhone at that same time frame? Which iPhone is most comparable to the current iPhone sales? I can't look it up now but I think the iPad is already as good as the iPhone 3GS. Perhaps better if we account for the iPad rollout. (will look up stats later today if no one beats me to it)
I suspect that 3GS sales tanked after Gizmodo.
- netbooks are slow laptops
- netbooks are not as "easy" and "creative snappy feeling" as the iPad
I myself use it daily as a great productivity tool...
My favourite iPad apps for business (and many free or very cheap) and my experience with the ipad
Cheers,
Daniel
Apple needs to pressure Unicom by coming with a phone that works with China Mobile SCDMA network... and ask for a tax break from China for pushing standard. Also, it may not have to pay much in royalties to Qualcomm, Nokia, etc... that is over $50/phone.
Meanwhile, flood the HK market with unlocked iPhone 4 as soon as manufacturing catches up.
While I agree that 28M is overly optimistic, you can't fairly compare iPads sales to iPhones sales. I think you have to compare iPad sales to iPhone + iPod Touch sales, because the iPad can be either a big iPod Touch or a big iPhone (minus voice calling) depending on which model the buyer chooses.
Isn't an "iPhone (minus voice calling)" just an iPod Touch anyway? Therefore, I think the correct comparison is to to the iPod Touch and not iPhones, too. IOW, you don't get voice calling with an iPad and no one I know bought an iPhone without intending to use it as a telephone.
Isn't an "iPhone (minus voice calling)" just an iPod Touch anyway?
the iPhone has a better camera: 5MP w/ flash vs. 1MP w/o flash.
the iPhone also has GPS, and [obviously] cellular capability - pentaband 850, 900, 1900, and 2100 MHz; [what's the 5th band?] UMTS/HSDPA chipset
that's all i know of.
Whoa.... not a good headline. Anything that starts "Apple forecast..." implies that this is Apple's forecast which the text then claims it's not. And I'm not even a journalism major.
The headline would normally be understood (and very clearly so) to mean "Apple [is] forecast [by people who are not Apple] to sell 28M..." There's no problem here.
don't get me wrong, i love ours, and i'm psyched about the numbers, but this thing is $$$.
$500 is expensive? At worst that's $100 more than a good net book though it's hard to compare devices that are not the same form factor. I suspect this is what's behind the 7" iPad rumors -- a $399 entry level price point.
I suspect that 3GS sales tanked after Gizmodo.
Gizmodo is irrelevant.
The iPhone 3GS crushed sales numbers. Just go look at Apple SEC filings. You don't need to "suspect" anything. Apple sold tons of phones and whatever Gizmodo did or didn't do was totally inconsequential. There was no tanking of iPhone 3GS sales.
The headline would normally be understood (and very clearly so) to mean "Apple [is] forecast [by people who are not Apple] to sell 28M..." There's no problem here.
I think most would say the headline should start with something like "Analyst predicts iPad sales of..." However clear the original headline is, this one is far more clear.