iPad, Apple's 'Mac of the masses,' predicted to sell 21M in 2011
One prominent Wall Street analyst has increased is forecast for iPad sales in 2011 to 21 million, citing expansion of the device's availability, as well as rapid adoption in the enterprise sector.
Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Thursday he believes the the iPad is poised to outsell the Mac in 2011. He had previously called for 14.5 million iPads to be sold in 2011, but now sees Apple selling 21 million.
"We believe the iPad represents a meaningful product category for Apple as a secondary computing device for those who already have a primary computer, a primary device for those who could not previously afford a Mac, and the first Apple product that will be a success in the enterprise," he wrote. "We see the iPad as the Mac for the masses."
His prediction is based on three factors: increased supply and expanded distribution channels, international rollout and adoption in price-sensitive markets, and uptake in the enterprise sector.
Munster said that increased presence of the iPad in retail stores will help to drive sales. Best Buy recently announced that it will expand iPad sales to all its U.S. stores this week, while Target is rumored to sell the device beginning next month.
Earlier this month, the iPad launched in China and 5 Latin American countries. In these "price-sensitive markets," the iPad is more likely to be used as a primary computing device by people who could not previously afford a Mac, Munster said.
Finally, he said the iPad has the potential to take the largest percentage of its sales from enterprise customers. He noted that the company revealed in June that more than 50 percent of the Fortune 100 are deploying or testing the iPad.
Munster believes Apple will control 94 percent o the worldwide tablet market in calendar year 2010, with 10.7 million of the total 11.3 million tablet sales for the year. In the future, he sees Android as the iPad's primary competition, as the next 3.0 release, codenamed "Gingerbread," is said to support tablet devices.
Piper Jaffray has increased its price target for AAPL stock to $390, with revenue estimates increased from $78.96 billion to $83.13 billion. The calendar year 2011 earnings per share estimate has also been increased from $16.87 to $17.75.
Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Thursday he believes the the iPad is poised to outsell the Mac in 2011. He had previously called for 14.5 million iPads to be sold in 2011, but now sees Apple selling 21 million.
"We believe the iPad represents a meaningful product category for Apple as a secondary computing device for those who already have a primary computer, a primary device for those who could not previously afford a Mac, and the first Apple product that will be a success in the enterprise," he wrote. "We see the iPad as the Mac for the masses."
His prediction is based on three factors: increased supply and expanded distribution channels, international rollout and adoption in price-sensitive markets, and uptake in the enterprise sector.
Munster said that increased presence of the iPad in retail stores will help to drive sales. Best Buy recently announced that it will expand iPad sales to all its U.S. stores this week, while Target is rumored to sell the device beginning next month.
Earlier this month, the iPad launched in China and 5 Latin American countries. In these "price-sensitive markets," the iPad is more likely to be used as a primary computing device by people who could not previously afford a Mac, Munster said.
Finally, he said the iPad has the potential to take the largest percentage of its sales from enterprise customers. He noted that the company revealed in June that more than 50 percent of the Fortune 100 are deploying or testing the iPad.
Munster believes Apple will control 94 percent o the worldwide tablet market in calendar year 2010, with 10.7 million of the total 11.3 million tablet sales for the year. In the future, he sees Android as the iPad's primary competition, as the next 3.0 release, codenamed "Gingerbread," is said to support tablet devices.
Piper Jaffray has increased its price target for AAPL stock to $390, with revenue estimates increased from $78.96 billion to $83.13 billion. The calendar year 2011 earnings per share estimate has also been increased from $16.87 to $17.75.
Comments
When home I tend to just use my iPhone for a quick internet session or turn to my MacBook for anything else.
I'm sure there are many people like me who will continue to use the iPad as an intermdediate device.
RIM believes this, which I'm sure is the motivating factor for their Blackpad. And I can't blame them for putting out a "me too" product. They have to protect their home turf, because if big business takes a shine to the iPad, they might look at the iPhone as a viable device as well. Then it's game over for the Blackberry.
The potential good contenders so far are Blackberry's offering next week - but that's running on an entirely new QNX based platform, so there aren't any applications yet, and in addition the price isn't known yet, nor the feature set.
Also HP will have a WebOS offering at some point.
And early next year the Tegra 2 based tablets with Android 3 will arrive. So far these are overpriced for the featureset, many have poor build quality. They make the iPad look like a complete bargain.
To contend that Apple will control 94 percent of the worldwide tablet market is a bit bullish, but I do believe the iPad will do surprising well in the enterprise market.
I think 94% of 2010 is perfectly reasonable. 2011 is probably much lower, at probably only 50-70%. The problem is that effectively the only tablet on the market as of today is the iPad. Once competitors come out with their products the percentage definitely will go down.
To contend that Apple will control 94 percent of the worldwide tablet market is a bit bullish, but I do believe the iPad will do surprising well in the enterprise market.
In 2010? I can see that, if not a little more. Who else is has been competing with them from April through September?
Looking at the other tablets coming to market, they seem to have equivalent price points to the iPad, not the high-volume, low-price, and low-price choices that saturate the PC market that Apple doesn?t play in.
Futhermore, without the iPad having to be bought with an AT&T contract shouldn?t that make it even more appealing as this is stated one reason that Android phones are selling as well as they are on in the US?
I think 94% of 2010 is perfectly reasonable. 2011 is probably much lower, at probably only 50-70%. The problem is that effectively the only tablet on the market as of today is the iPad. Once competitors come out with their products the percentage definitely will go down.
I missed the 2010 reference. Thanks for pointing that out, Jarina.
For 2011, I think Apple will have about 70 to 80 percent market share. Their app store is what will really make a difference for them. Whether you're a major corporation, a small business, or an average joe, every iPad comes out of the box with the same set of apps. But when you pick and choose from what's available in the iTunes store, you have a device that is capable of so many things, and is customized for each individual's needs.
Apps is where it's at. And I don't see any other tablet device that could come close to Apple's current, and growing, selection.
To contend that Apple will control 94 percent of the worldwide tablet market is a bit bullish, but I do believe the iPad will do surprising well in the enterprise market.
RIM believes this, which I'm sure is the motivating factor for their Blackpad. And I can't blame them for putting out a "me too" product. They have to protect their home turf, because if big business takes a shine to the iPad, they might look at the iPhone as a viable device as well. Then it's game over for the Blackberry.
But RIM doesn't have the software chops like Apple. RIM can't touch the software prowess of Apple.Not by a million miles. And what about customer service? RIM has it in the celly market but a tablet?. They need security for their tablet,customization etc. Those types of factors are vitally important.RIM ain't going to have s*** with that complexity ready for game day and I don't think they will ever invest time in developing a well rounded tablet.They'll throw out a me to tablet, get some buzz, then allow it to die.
Just my 2 cents.
but the ipad makes up for that with all that it can do. it isn't ready to make me retire my macbook yet but its very close.
and i don't see anyone with a product that looks like serious competition yet.
One prominent Wall Street analyst has increased is forecast for iPad sales in 2011 to 21 million, citing expansion of the device's availability, as well as rapid adoption in the enterprise sector.
Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Thursday he believes the the iPad is poised to outsell the Mac in 2011. He had previously called for 14.5 million iPads to be sold in 2011, but now sees Apple selling 21 million.
Not bad for a device being nether a Notebook nor a iPod touch and that isn't ever going to be useful to anybody.
who could not previously afford a Mac
They still can't: an iPad is not a Mac.
But RIM doesn't have the software chops like Apple. RIM can't touch the software prowess of Apple.Not by a million miles. And what about customer service? RIM has it in the celly market but a tablet?. They need security for their tablet,customization etc. Those types of factors are vitally important.RIM ain't going to have s*** with that complexity ready for game day and I don't think they will ever invest time in developing a well rounded tablet.They'll throw out a me to tablet, get some buzz, then allow it to die.
Just my 2 cents.
You're totally right. And being that this Blackpad will have an entirely new OS to go with it, makes it harder for them to ever get a decent amount of apps to compete with Apple's. There is one advantage RIM has, and it's their installed base of Blackberry users. They'll be pushing the Blackpad hard in the enterprise market, just as a preemptive strike against the iPad. But in the long run? It's doubtful RIM can succeed.
You're totally right. And being that this Blackpad will have an entirely new OS to go with it, makes it harder for them to ever get a decent amount of apps to compete with Apple's. There is one advantage RIM has, and it's their installed base of Blackberry users. They'll be pushing the Blackpad hard in the enterprise market, just as a preemptive strike against the iPad. But in the long run? It's doubtful RIM can succeed.
i honestly dont' see RIM surviving unless they do something drastic (like firing everyone on design team and getting someone good).
the biggest threat could come from MS if phone 7 is any good and ports well to tablet. but they better get it in gear times a wasting.
They still can't: an iPad is not a Mac.
In time, you won't be able to tell the difference. THAT is the plan.
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
aaahhhhhhhhhhh
Now, down to buzinessss.
I think the estimates for iPad units are way too low.
An earlier article mentioned "Fidacaro expects Apple to sell a record 11.6 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of the company's fiscal 2010. That would be a 39 percent increase from the 8.4 million handsets the company sold in the third quarter of fiscal 2010."
And "As for the iPad, suppliers were said to have plans to build 7 million units for the current quarter, a 56 percent increase from the previous three-month frame. Fidacaro expects Apple to ship 4.75 million units int he current quarter, which would be 45 percent growth from last quarter, to reach a total of 13.4 million units in calendar 2010."
Munster says "14.5 million iPads to be sold in 2011, but now sees Apple selling 21 million."
Let's say we model that iPhone 4 is doing about say 4 million units a month, and global availability is limited, but ahead of iPad releases.
Assuming iPad production is as big a priority as iPhone 4, due to wild success of the iPad, the big issue is that the iPad rollout is behind iPhone 4 with no news of many more countries where it has not launched yet.
By late June they sold 3 million iPads total. 7 million units for the current quarter breaks down to 2.3 million per month. But we know iPad production is ramping up, and has to, if it has any chance of launching beyond to initial-launch countries, let alone have a reach equal to where Macs are sold.
Thus I believe 2011 targets will be around 3 million to 4 million a month. Assuming the iPad 2 announced in January, we could be looking at 5 million a month if they can make that much.
Even a conservative estimate of 3 million iPads a month puts the 2011 total at 36 million iPads sold. (Factor in a very, very conservative estimate of 4 million iPhones a month puts the 2011 total at 48 million sold... 3 million iPod touch a month puts the total iOS devices at 120+ million in 2011, about what they sold in total prior to 2011.
The iPad situation is highly underrated by analysts, I think. Honestly, my gut tells me we're looking at 4 million iPad, 5 million iPhone and 3.5 million iPod touch per month in 2011, bringing the total to 48 million, 60 million and 42 million respectively for 2011.
i honestly dont' see RIM surviving unless they do something drastic (like firing everyone on design team and getting someone good).
the biggest threat could come from MS if phone 7 is any good and ports well to tablet. but they better get it in gear times a wasting.
I think the only way RIM has even a ghost of a chance of surviving long term is if either Nokia or Microsoft acquires it. RIM is like Palm (the original Palm of PDA fame), it had a great product idea but is unable to break out into new areas successfully either because of a lack of imagination, lack of financial heft, or a narrow talent base in the organization. Who knows really?
And even if RIM gets acquired by Nokia or MS, there's still no guarantee because the latter two are also in a downward trend that they may or may not be able to reverse.
He's probably also factoring in how rubbish other companies tablets have been so far.
The potential good contenders so far are Blackberry's offering next week - but that's running on an entirely new QNX based platform, so there aren't any applications yet, and in addition the price isn't known yet, nor the feature set....
You have to wonder when RIM got serious about tablet development. And then ask what they can come up with in MONTHS compared to YEARS Apple had. Along with mature technology to go hand in hand with the iPad.
I think calling the first Blackpad a "Me Too" product will turn out to be a gross understatement.
Microsoft is making their way in all kinds of non-traditional markets. Ford and Microsoft's Sync is one example. Maybe that's the key - Apple doesn't want to integrate into 3rd party products but rather interface to them. Gotcha Apple.
With Apple's success in music players, phones, computers, and now slate computing devices I am surprised they haven't taken their iOS to the next level as an embedded OS in cars for entertainment systems and in appliances. I can see refrigerators, ovens, dishwashers, and microwaves having touch screens for input devices and making suggestions for cooking, shopping, sales on flatware and dishes etc.
Microsoft is making their way in all kinds of non-traditional markets. Ford and Microsoft's Sync is one example. Maybe that's the key - Apple doesn't want to integrate into 3rd party products but rather interface to them. Gotcha Apple.
Jobs won't do that, unless you buy an apple icar, apple ioven, apple iwasher, ha.
which i wouldn't mind them doing....would love a 'real' 55" apple tv and a ibrew espresso machine....
You have to wonder when RIM got serious about tablet development. And then ask what they can come up with in MONTHS compared to YEARS Apple had. Along with mature technology to go hand in hand with the iPad.
I think calling the first Blackpad a "Me Too" product will turn out to be a gross understatement.
RIM has to ditch the blackberry enterprise server too. hate that i have to have yet another server to manage just for those devices...
Futhermore, without the iPad having to be bought with an AT&T contract shouldn’t that make it even more appealing as this is stated one reason that Android phones are selling as well as they are on in the US?
Off topic, Sol, but I looove your new sig ....lmao ..... reminds me, it's time to change mine, but no matter how hard I try, yours will still be tops.
PS .. For a second there, I thought I was reading a post from Newtron ... same logic and all.