Three things. First, after-hours trading is thin and notoriously volatile. If you don't trade off the regular markets, then why do you even care? Second, every time AAPL moves down for reasons people don't understand, it seems like somebody automatically claims (literally) that a federal crime has been committed. For some reason, we never hear this accusation when it goes up. Third, using an anonymous poster as evidence of anything is about as desperate as it gets. If the same anonymous poster was claiming that every iPhone in the world was about recalled as defective, you'd be shouting BS and stock manipulation. Right?
Regardless of the source (i.e. the ranting message board poster) I did learn something new from this link. Apparently a typo came across the wire last night, suggesting that Apple was guiding to 26% margins rather than 36%. Such a thing could easily be a trigger in the AH. (Not necessarily because everyone saw or believed it, but because it only takes a few people in AH to light a spark, inadvertently or otherwise, and get the ball rolling.)
We all know that the AH is fairly meaningless and can be easily influenced by such trivial things. But then, in the morning, when the media gets involved, they actually post things that sound as if Apple has issued a new warning. One story suggested this was the beginning of the end for Apple's "meteoric" climb. I guess they feel like they need to explain things as quickly as possible these days, else they'll be scooped by someone else. Then the herd mentality takes over, and entropy increases some more.
Having said all of that, and since I'm a long term investor, I agree with the "broader picture" you presented in a different post (above)... AAPL is on a terrific run over the past few months, and in the grand scheme of things, falling back to the low 300's is not that big of a deal considering it only spiked above 310 (and nearly 320) for about a day. And that's not much higher than we are now, on a percentage basis.
So I'm not worried about it. In fact, I feel quite good about things when FUD can be tossed and acted upon, but we still hover near all time highs.
... And I'd imagine there are a large number of casual investors in aapl that are easily spooked by # 1 above.
I was expecting, actually hoping for, a 10% decline on a knee-jerk reaction from those reading the words "Apple warns..." knowing most won't read anything else. Whatever movement the stock made today - what, a percent? - is completely meaningless.
Markets are not rational, which is a good thing for investors.
Regardless of the source (i.e. the ranting message board poster) I did learn something new from this link. Apparently a typo came across the wire last night, suggesting that Apple was guiding to 26% margins rather than 36%. Such a thing could easily be a trigger in the AH. (Not necessarily because everyone saw or believed it, but because it only takes a few people in AH to light a spark, inadvertently or otherwise, and get the ball rolling.)
We all know that the AH is fairly meaningless and can be easily influenced by such trivial things. But then, in the morning, when the media gets involved, they actually post things that sound as if Apple has issued a new warning. One story suggested this was the beginning of the end for Apple's "meteoric" climb. I guess they feel like they need to explain things as quickly as possible these days, else they'll be scooped by someone else. Then the herd mentality takes over, and entropy increases some more.
Having said all of that, and since I'm a long term investor, I agree with the "broader picture" you presented in a different post (above)... AAPL is on a terrific run over the past few months, and in the grand scheme of things, falling back to the low 300's is not that big of a deal considering it only spiked above 310 (and nearly 320) for about a day. And that's not much higher than we are now, on a percentage basis.
So I'm not worried about it. In fact, I feel quite good about things when FUD can be tossed and acted upon, but we still hover near all time highs.
Thompson
All true. One of the problems is the media's need to explain everything, even when the explanations are so vague and post-hoc that they hardly explain anything. You won't find a financial report saying "Western Widget shares dropped 5% today for no reason anyone can figure out."
Apple's inventory increased ca $600,000,000 year to year. I suspect that they were building inventory, largely iPad, for the sales blitz now under way. This would be reflected in their cost of sales for the quarter, but not in the revenue. The inventory would probably be at cost of manufacture, which is about $300 for both the iPhone and the iPad, a=nd represent ca 2,000,000 units. This would drop the gross margin by about 3 percentage points, to be recovered when they are sold in the current quarter.
Inventory level of $1 billion isn't a lot at all when you consider that Apple's revenue is nearly $7 billion a month.
Inventory level of $1 billion isn't a lot at all when you consider that Apple's revenue is nearly $7 billion a month.
You are right, but Apple has traditionally sold most of their product direct so production could be closely matched to sales. The major exception has been the iPhone, but since demand has exceeded production there has been no need to build a finished goods inventory.
In preparation for the iPad blitz, Apple added about 5000 points of distribution: Target, Walmart, Verizon, AT&T, and so on. On site inventory must be built and on hand to fill the distribution channels on day 1. 200,000,000 units does not seem to be too much.
Three things. First, after-hours trading is thin and notoriously volatile. If you don't trade off the regular markets, then why do you even care?
I care because I own Apple stock, and when I see it get sandbagged for no good reason like it got sandbagged today, I want to know why. It's clear to even the dimmest bulb that the trouble started in after-hours trading, and lo and behold, there's a highly suspicious stock dump just two minutes before a "typo" hits the wire. The typo is fixed, of course, but the stock has been pulled down when it looked likely to go up.
Result: Apple is pulled all the way back down to 300 a share before it reverses.
Quote:
Second, every time AAPL moves down for reasons people don't understand, it seems like somebody automatically claims (literally) that a federal crime has been committed. For some reason, we never hear this accusation when it goes up.
Do you seriously believe that this kind of stock manipulation doesn't happen? Is your middle name Pollyanna by any chance?
Quote:
Third, using an anonymous poster as evidence of anything is about as desperate as it gets. If the same anonymous poster was claiming that every iPhone in the world was about recalled as defective, you'd be shouting BS and stock manipulation. Right?
Now, that's just dumb, using false analogies and personal attacks to try to bluster your way out of being on the wrong side of this issue. I credited you with more intelligence than that.
I care because I own Apple stock, and when I see it get sandbagged for no good reason like it got sandbagged today, I want to know why. It's clear to even the dimmest bulb that the trouble started in after-hours trading, and lo and behold, there's a highly suspicious stock dump just two minutes before a "typo" hits the wire. The typo is fixed, of course, but the stock has been pulled down when it looked likely to go up.
Result: Apple is pulled all the way back down to 300 a share before it reverses.
Do you seriously believe that this kind of stock manipulation doesn't happen? Is your middle name Pollyanna by any chance?
Now, that's just dumb, using false analogies and personal attacks to try to bluster your way out of being on the wrong side of this issue. I credited you with more intelligence than that.
I own AAPL too, and have had for over 13 years now. I've seen an awful lot of ups and downs over that time. I know enough to realize that what happens in after-hours trading makes little difference to me. I was simply pointing out that I have yet to hear any cries of stock manipulation when AAPL goes up for no apparent reason, only when it goes down. Are you saying this is wrong, or are you simply trying to avoid the point?
Calling dumb and Polyanna isn't the best way to protest what you incorrectly term a personal attack.
I own AAPL too, and have had for over 13 years now. I've seen an awful lot of ups and downs over that time. I know enough to realize that what happens in after-hours trading makes little difference to me. I was simply pointing out that I have yet to hear any cries of stock manipulation when AAPL goes up for no apparent reason, only when it goes down. Are you saying this is wrong, or are you simply trying to avoid the point?
I am saying that stock manipulation happens, and you know it.
Quote:
Calling dumb and Polyanna isn't the best way to protest what you incorrectly term a personal attack.
not very funny really. The guy that did it is clearly not being engaged enough at work. Nobody really did anything wrong, and I dont see the point of the exercise. It is interesting that the guy doesnt want respond to questions about this. Maybe someone should post up HIS private details and see what happens.
Comments
Three things. First, after-hours trading is thin and notoriously volatile. If you don't trade off the regular markets, then why do you even care? Second, every time AAPL moves down for reasons people don't understand, it seems like somebody automatically claims (literally) that a federal crime has been committed. For some reason, we never hear this accusation when it goes up. Third, using an anonymous poster as evidence of anything is about as desperate as it gets. If the same anonymous poster was claiming that every iPhone in the world was about recalled as defective, you'd be shouting BS and stock manipulation. Right?
Regardless of the source (i.e. the ranting message board poster) I did learn something new from this link. Apparently a typo came across the wire last night, suggesting that Apple was guiding to 26% margins rather than 36%. Such a thing could easily be a trigger in the AH. (Not necessarily because everyone saw or believed it, but because it only takes a few people in AH to light a spark, inadvertently or otherwise, and get the ball rolling.)
We all know that the AH is fairly meaningless and can be easily influenced by such trivial things. But then, in the morning, when the media gets involved, they actually post things that sound as if Apple has issued a new warning. One story suggested this was the beginning of the end for Apple's "meteoric" climb. I guess they feel like they need to explain things as quickly as possible these days, else they'll be scooped by someone else. Then the herd mentality takes over, and entropy increases some more.
Having said all of that, and since I'm a long term investor, I agree with the "broader picture" you presented in a different post (above)... AAPL is on a terrific run over the past few months, and in the grand scheme of things, falling back to the low 300's is not that big of a deal considering it only spiked above 310 (and nearly 320) for about a day. And that's not much higher than we are now, on a percentage basis.
So I'm not worried about it. In fact, I feel quite good about things when FUD can be tossed and acted upon, but we still hover near all time highs.
Thompson
2 words: BUYING OPPORTUNITY
... And I'd imagine there are a large number of casual investors in aapl that are easily spooked by # 1 above.
I was expecting, actually hoping for, a 10% decline on a knee-jerk reaction from those reading the words "Apple warns..." knowing most won't read anything else. Whatever movement the stock made today - what, a percent? - is completely meaningless.
Markets are not rational, which is a good thing for investors.
Regardless of the source (i.e. the ranting message board poster) I did learn something new from this link. Apparently a typo came across the wire last night, suggesting that Apple was guiding to 26% margins rather than 36%. Such a thing could easily be a trigger in the AH. (Not necessarily because everyone saw or believed it, but because it only takes a few people in AH to light a spark, inadvertently or otherwise, and get the ball rolling.)
We all know that the AH is fairly meaningless and can be easily influenced by such trivial things. But then, in the morning, when the media gets involved, they actually post things that sound as if Apple has issued a new warning. One story suggested this was the beginning of the end for Apple's "meteoric" climb. I guess they feel like they need to explain things as quickly as possible these days, else they'll be scooped by someone else. Then the herd mentality takes over, and entropy increases some more.
Having said all of that, and since I'm a long term investor, I agree with the "broader picture" you presented in a different post (above)... AAPL is on a terrific run over the past few months, and in the grand scheme of things, falling back to the low 300's is not that big of a deal considering it only spiked above 310 (and nearly 320) for about a day. And that's not much higher than we are now, on a percentage basis.
So I'm not worried about it. In fact, I feel quite good about things when FUD can be tossed and acted upon, but we still hover near all time highs.
Thompson
All true. One of the problems is the media's need to explain everything, even when the explanations are so vague and post-hoc that they hardly explain anything. You won't find a financial report saying "Western Widget shares dropped 5% today for no reason anyone can figure out."
Apple's inventory increased ca $600,000,000 year to year. I suspect that they were building inventory, largely iPad, for the sales blitz now under way. This would be reflected in their cost of sales for the quarter, but not in the revenue. The inventory would probably be at cost of manufacture, which is about $300 for both the iPhone and the iPad, a=nd represent ca 2,000,000 units. This would drop the gross margin by about 3 percentage points, to be recovered when they are sold in the current quarter.
Inventory level of $1 billion isn't a lot at all when you consider that Apple's revenue is nearly $7 billion a month.
Inventory level of $1 billion isn't a lot at all when you consider that Apple's revenue is nearly $7 billion a month.
You are right, but Apple has traditionally sold most of their product direct so production could be closely matched to sales. The major exception has been the iPhone, but since demand has exceeded production there has been no need to build a finished goods inventory.
In preparation for the iPad blitz, Apple added about 5000 points of distribution: Target, Walmart, Verizon, AT&T, and so on. On site inventory must be built and on hand to fill the distribution channels on day 1. 200,000,000 units does not seem to be too much.
Three things. First, after-hours trading is thin and notoriously volatile. If you don't trade off the regular markets, then why do you even care?
I care because I own Apple stock, and when I see it get sandbagged for no good reason like it got sandbagged today, I want to know why. It's clear to even the dimmest bulb that the trouble started in after-hours trading, and lo and behold, there's a highly suspicious stock dump just two minutes before a "typo" hits the wire. The typo is fixed, of course, but the stock has been pulled down when it looked likely to go up.
Result: Apple is pulled all the way back down to 300 a share before it reverses.
Second, every time AAPL moves down for reasons people don't understand, it seems like somebody automatically claims (literally) that a federal crime has been committed. For some reason, we never hear this accusation when it goes up.
Do you seriously believe that this kind of stock manipulation doesn't happen? Is your middle name Pollyanna by any chance?
Third, using an anonymous poster as evidence of anything is about as desperate as it gets. If the same anonymous poster was claiming that every iPhone in the world was about recalled as defective, you'd be shouting BS and stock manipulation. Right?
Now, that's just dumb, using false analogies and personal attacks to try to bluster your way out of being on the wrong side of this issue. I credited you with more intelligence than that.
I care because I own Apple stock, and when I see it get sandbagged for no good reason like it got sandbagged today, I want to know why. It's clear to even the dimmest bulb that the trouble started in after-hours trading, and lo and behold, there's a highly suspicious stock dump just two minutes before a "typo" hits the wire. The typo is fixed, of course, but the stock has been pulled down when it looked likely to go up.
Result: Apple is pulled all the way back down to 300 a share before it reverses.
Do you seriously believe that this kind of stock manipulation doesn't happen? Is your middle name Pollyanna by any chance?
Now, that's just dumb, using false analogies and personal attacks to try to bluster your way out of being on the wrong side of this issue. I credited you with more intelligence than that.
I own AAPL too, and have had for over 13 years now. I've seen an awful lot of ups and downs over that time. I know enough to realize that what happens in after-hours trading makes little difference to me. I was simply pointing out that I have yet to hear any cries of stock manipulation when AAPL goes up for no apparent reason, only when it goes down. Are you saying this is wrong, or are you simply trying to avoid the point?
Calling dumb and Polyanna isn't the best way to protest what you incorrectly term a personal attack.
I own AAPL too, and have had for over 13 years now. I've seen an awful lot of ups and downs over that time. I know enough to realize that what happens in after-hours trading makes little difference to me. I was simply pointing out that I have yet to hear any cries of stock manipulation when AAPL goes up for no apparent reason, only when it goes down. Are you saying this is wrong, or are you simply trying to avoid the point?
I am saying that stock manipulation happens, and you know it.
Calling dumb and Polyanna isn't the best way to protest what you incorrectly term a personal attack.
You're correct. I apologize.
from ElReg:
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