In battle of iPad vs. Android-based Galaxy Tab, 85% prefer Apple
A new consumer poll pitting the Samsung Galaxy Tab against the iPad discovered that an overwhelming majority -- 85 percent -- prefer Apple's touchscreen tablet.
Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray revealed the results of a survey he and his team recently conducted. The Galaxy Tab got off to a relatively strong start, selling 600,000 worldwide in its first month of availability.
In the survey of 65 consumers, customers were asked to share what they believe the "perceived value" of each tablet is. Those polled indicated they felt the 3G-capable iPad is worth about $417 -- less than its actual price of $629, but also much higher than the $283 perceived value of the Galaxy Tab.
The survey indicates that customers believe both products should have lower prices, but also shows that respondents felt that the iPad is a product of more valuable than the Android-based Galaxy Tab.
"We note that the Galaxy Tab is not available in a Wi-Fi only model, which would compare to the Wi-Fi only iPad at $499," Munster wrote. "That said, we would expect the results of a similar survey conducted with the less expensive Wi-Fi only iPad to amplify the difference in perceived value relative to the MSRP. In other words, the perceived value of an iPad is actually slightly closer to its base-MSRP than our survey suggests."
Munster said he expects both the iPad and Android-based tablets to succeed, but Apple has the advantage of a head start. He has forecast that the tablet market will grow 205 percent year over year in calendar year 2011, hitting 44.2 million units.
He has predicted that Apple will sell 13 million iPads in calendar year 2010, representing an 89 percent market share. But Apple's share is projected to dip to 53 percent in calendar year 2011, with sales of 23.3 million units. He sees Android taking a 33 percent share, with 14.4 million total units.
Munster has referred to the iPad as the "Mac of the masses," as Apple's tablet is already outselling the Mac. After tracking sales on Black Friday last week, Piper Jaffray found that consumer interest in the iPad was significantly strong for the holidays.
Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray revealed the results of a survey he and his team recently conducted. The Galaxy Tab got off to a relatively strong start, selling 600,000 worldwide in its first month of availability.
In the survey of 65 consumers, customers were asked to share what they believe the "perceived value" of each tablet is. Those polled indicated they felt the 3G-capable iPad is worth about $417 -- less than its actual price of $629, but also much higher than the $283 perceived value of the Galaxy Tab.
The survey indicates that customers believe both products should have lower prices, but also shows that respondents felt that the iPad is a product of more valuable than the Android-based Galaxy Tab.
"We note that the Galaxy Tab is not available in a Wi-Fi only model, which would compare to the Wi-Fi only iPad at $499," Munster wrote. "That said, we would expect the results of a similar survey conducted with the less expensive Wi-Fi only iPad to amplify the difference in perceived value relative to the MSRP. In other words, the perceived value of an iPad is actually slightly closer to its base-MSRP than our survey suggests."
Munster said he expects both the iPad and Android-based tablets to succeed, but Apple has the advantage of a head start. He has forecast that the tablet market will grow 205 percent year over year in calendar year 2011, hitting 44.2 million units.
He has predicted that Apple will sell 13 million iPads in calendar year 2010, representing an 89 percent market share. But Apple's share is projected to dip to 53 percent in calendar year 2011, with sales of 23.3 million units. He sees Android taking a 33 percent share, with 14.4 million total units.
Munster has referred to the iPad as the "Mac of the masses," as Apple's tablet is already outselling the Mac. After tracking sales on Black Friday last week, Piper Jaffray found that consumer interest in the iPad was significantly strong for the holidays.
Comments
Rivals to match the iPhones user experience took a lot longer to arrive than anyone expected.
Also the main appeal of an iPad is that it is a big sceen app console and Android isn't anywhere near as strong a platform for apps and games. Also the Android Marketplace does not have the global reach as the App Store.
He has predicted that Apple will sell 13 million iPads in calendar year 2010, representing an 89 percent market share. But Apple's share is projected to dip to 53 percent in calendar year 2011.
Did Munster forget the next gen. iPad2 in his calculations?
Even considering there would be no successor of the current iPad, it is hard to imagine that the market share would be dropping that much.
In the survey of 65 consumers
I'm sure the iPad *is* preferred, but a survey of 65 people has a margin of error of like +/- 25% or something.
Lemme put it this way: Political polls generally survey at least 400 voters, and even then the MoE is around 5%; to drop it down to 3% they have to bump it up to around 1,000 voters.
It's like going to the race track and betting on the horse with the bum leg.
Survey of 65 people? Munster is making up stories now, what a guy
Still it's more than believeable. Apple experience vs Samsung/google bastard? One must be special to take Tab and the price difference is just 30 bucks.
Did Munster forget the next gen. iPad2 in his calculations?
Even considering there would be no successor of the current iPad, it is hard to imagine that the market share would be dropping that much.
There hasn't really been much in the way of competition all year long. It's basically been iPad and the Joojoo. heh. With the Tab finally out and other tablets hitting now or the first half of next year, it won't be surprising at all for Apple to lose a larger chunk of next year's total sales. This happens when you go from no competition to several competitors.
Those crazy 15%!
One of them was DaHarder...
BTW South Korea only got the iPad on Tuesday 30th Nov. I'm sure the stories coming out will be hundreds of thousands sold, out of stock fast, etc etc over the next few months.
No iPad 3G in China at all apparently (see the Apple China Online Store). Buying a 32GB 3G iPad here in Malaysia for my friend in Shanghai.
Did Munster forget the next gen. iPad2 in his calculations?
Even considering there would be no successor of the current iPad, it is hard to imagine that the market share would be dropping that much.
Not just Munster... I see arguments on here constantly where it seems that some people think that what you see from Apple now is the way it will be forever... as if Apple has stopped innovating, stopped upgrading and will remain dormant from here forward.
Sorry... just something I've been noticing and had to mention.
Back to regular programming...
Wow! 65! I feel really good about that sample being representative of the BILLIONS of people on the planet.
65 is a small number, but it appears that even with this number, the results are significant.
With a sample of 65, the error margin is +/- 12%.
http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html
So we know that somewhere between 73% and 97% prefer the iPad (given a certain probability). That's a meaningful result, even with the large error margin.
If they had chosen a larger sample, the error margin would have been smaller, but the result wouldn't have been different - the iPad wins by a wide margin.
The real problem is not the size of the sample, but how representative it is. For example, if they sampled a group of people coming out of the Apple Store, the answer would have been very different than if they sampled people coming out of 'Geeks 'R Us'. Particularly with these small samples, you have to be VERY careful to avoid sample bias.
Did Munster forget the next gen. iPad2 in his calculations?
Even considering there would be no successor of the current iPad, it is hard to imagine that the market share would be dropping that much.
The other 50% of the tablet market in 2011 will probably be cheapo tablets promising everything under the sun. Apple is only one company. They could supply 50 million or so iPads that would be sold in 2011 should they be able to make that much. Every other company in total could sell 30-60 million or so. But it has been one year and no real iPad competitors still. Who knows.
Apple's goal in 2011: no slip ups on iPhone5 and iPad2, and make about 100 million of them or more. That's a lot to do. Among all the other stuff they do.
I've played with the Tab a bit. Other than the supposed Flash playback... Meh
BTW South Korea only got the iPad on Tuesday 30th Nov. I'm sure the stories coming out will be hundreds of thousands sold, out of stock fast, etc etc over the next few months.
No iPad 3G in China at all apparently (see the Apple China Online Store). Buying a 32GB 3G iPad here in Malaysia for my friend in Shanghai.
as i'm in china now, i know it sucks not to get iPad 3g... luckily hongkong is very near for us and it is easily available in grey market in china for 675 dollars... that's how i got it.
I could never be an analyst because I could never live with myself if this is the level of quality that was expected of my work.
65 is a small number, but it appears that even with this number, the results are significant.
With a sample of 65, the error margin is +/- 12%.
http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html
So we know that somewhere between 73% and 97% prefer the iPad (given a certain probability). That's a meaningful result, even with the large error margin.
If they had chosen a larger sample, the error margin would have been smaller, but the result wouldn't have been different - the iPad wins by a wide margin.
The real problem is not the size of the sample, but how representative it is. For example, if they sampled a group of people coming out of the Apple Store, the answer would have been very different than if they sampled people coming out of 'Geeks 'R Us'. Particularly with these small samples, you have to be VERY careful to avoid sample bias.
Great points, and by the way i love that link. However, I would call a 73% to 97% range pathetic for any meaningful conclusions. On your point of representative sample ... isn't the point of this type of logic not to be representative, but totally random? I guess the answer to this question is how you define the population, which the article does not mention.
The other 50% of the tablet market in 2011 will probably be cheapo tablets promising everything under the sun. Apple is only one company. They could supply 50 million or so iPads that would be sold in 2011 should they be able to make that much. Every other company in total could sell 30-60 million or so. But it has been one year and no real iPad competitors still. Who knows.
Apple's goal in 2011: no slip ups on iPhone5 and iPad2, and make about 100 million of them or more. That's a lot to do. Among all the other stuff they do.
Hmm I just remember, the pre-iPad age where everyone said "nah nobody needs a tablet PC. " Still there where quite some tablets around. Cheap ones and not so cheap ones. But they never sold millions of units probably even if you count them all together. So apple has definitely got the trick there. And I believe People noticed this and won't go for the cheapos, because they are as useless as ever. Even the galaxy tab which is probably one of the best competitors around sucks, because the apps on the android marketplace don't really take advantage of the extra screen size. And google has not even come out with an android version for tablets.
Not just Munster... I see arguments on here constantly where it seems that some people think that what you see from Apple now is the way it will be forever... as if Apple has stopped innovating, stopped upgrading and will remain dormant from here forward.
Sorry... just something I've been noticing and had to mention.
Back to regular programming...
People make those sorts of arguments all the time. One that's been popping up recently is that tablets/iOS devices will displace "traditional" computers in a couple of years because soon tablets will be able to do "everything" desktops and laptops do today, as though desktop and laptop development will immediately stop dead. I think it's mostly an expression of wishful thinking, from those who are excited about the possibility of a certain outcome, or panic by those horrified. Rational thought processes cease and wild prognostications are made.