Android's weak sales drive Verizon toward Apple's iPhone

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  • Reply 101 of 108
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    You might not recall it, but my original point was your putting analysis in scare quotes. You said it was because of sales figures, I pointed out that the analysis went beyond that to structural analysis of Verizon's sales mix. So yes, you were dismissing that out of hand as well.



    Quotes were used because they presented as sales figures derived from "proprietary research." It isn't as accurate as actual sales from VZW vs. Att, but notice how I said on my very first post, "So far, so good."



    Quote:

    Nope, they're doing a good Android business. As is Verizon. Who doesn't have the iPhone to balance things out. Point of the article. Again.



    But you said:



    Quote:

    ...for instance it includes observations about the danger to Verizon of becoming a single platform vendor,...



    They said it was a danger for them. Well, why? Putting all the eggs in one basket?



    Quote:

    Verizon is facing the prospect of a single OS supplier who may or may not maintain alignment with Verizon?s core profit algorithm. If they diverge, Verizon?s bargaining power will be strictly limited.



    Perhaps, but that goes for Att too. As mentioned, if the iphone goes to Verizon, sales could drop from Att to Verizon, and Android may or may not stay the same.



    Now, I won't assume that this is your belief as well, but you brought it up.



    Quote:

    "Logical fallacy" isn't a slur that you can just level because you feel like it, like "dumb fuck." It means something. You failed to demonstrate any logical inconsistency, and instead just changed the subject.



    Premise made by the original article:



    Quote:

    Strike three, the site states, is that Android is simply not competitive with Apple's iPhone.



    Supportive evidence? From the original article



    Quote:

    In an apples-to-apples comparison, in Q3 the iPhone at AT&T outsold Android at Verizon (remember, same addressable market) by a factor of 2.5. This is with a variety of devices and vendors thrown in the market. We hardly ever get to see this finely grained a comparison when looking at platforms.



    But they only addressed the iphone on Att in that graph when they sell more than iOS devices.



    What was Att's split of Smartphone OSes? 95% Apple? Who knows.



    IF VZW was the only source of Android, just as Att is the only source of iphones, it would be a fair comparison. But, that isn't the case, as already explained.



    If the premise was "Sales of Android phones at Verizon have not matched sales at Att", that can be supported. But to support the oringinal claim, one needs to show a sales of all iphones vs. all android phones.



    Quote:

    Fair enough, Daniel may have changed the emphasis from the original article. But the context even there still makes it clear that we're talking about Verizon vs. AT&T, not some failure of Android in the market at large.



    True. But as of late DED has been on a role of taking as many pot shots as he can, even if it makes no sense.



    Quote:

    If that's the only point you wanted to make, it's a) trivial, and b) irrelevant to the point being discussed. Nothing in the original article or Daniel's gloss suggest that Android is doomed, or that it is failing in the market place, or that somehow excellent AT&T sales eclipse excellent Android sales on vendors other than Verizon. Not sure why you're so dead set on turning this into "Android is so kicking ass, liars!"



    Sure, and that Att sells more than 2.5x phones than Verizon does Android isn't trying to say something without saying it?



    Or,



    Quote:

    Unlike popular comparisons of global device activation numbers, mobile web "market share" and mobile advertising analytics, all of which can gerrymander markets that either include or exclude iPods and iPads and other devices, or group third world cheap devices into the same pool as high end smartphones, the report's comparison of AT&T and Verizon is one of the clearest looks yet at how iPhone sales compare to Android-based smartphones in similar circumstances.



    Funny how comparing global activations of numbers on iOS vs. Android would be better than "let's see how many smartphones were found to be sold by a third party analyst from VZW and Att. Include Sprint and T-Mobile, oh why would I need to include them?"



    Quote:

    And, again, talking about people you know doesn't add anything to the discussion. I can say "Everyone I know is waiting on an iPhone from Verizon" and it doesn't mean a thing.



    I clarified this for you on my second reply. You proceded to jump on me about me committing the fallacy of relying on anecdotes on your subsequent reply.



    Quote:

    Except that, outside of a minor point of emphasis, you haven't actually cited any "bullshit" in the article at hand. Instead, you've mounted a spirited defense of the idea of Android's competitiveness in general, without addressing any of the points regarding Android sales on Verizon vs. iOS sales on AT&T specifically, which, yet again, was the topic of the article.



    I'm not the one who asserted that "Android is simply not competitive with Apple's iPhone," then quoted it, thus agreeing with it, without proof. Had DED said "while this isn't entirely conclusive, it does show how much Att is leading with the iphone..." I'd be just fine with that.



    All of DED's articles about him recalling the past are fun to read. And, as being around for those days, I independently can verify what he posted is true.



    This? No.
  • Reply 102 of 108
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by penchanted View Post


    You continue to post as if you are an insider privy to what are Verizon's expectations for Android. If you are, please state your affiliation with Verizon.



    As for Verizon's stated goals of maintaining and improving profit margins, are you suggesting that a Verizon iPhone would be at odds with these stated goals? Seems to me that a Verizon iPhone would increase postpaid subscriptions and ARPU and also increase churn for ATT. This could allow Verizon to increase their lead in postpaid subscriptions even further, another metric the industry follows. Don't pretend that Verizon does not concern itself with the very metrics used to analyze the industry.



    It seems to me that the crux of the article is true - Verizon would like to add the iPhone to its handset arsenal. Do you have any substantive arguments that a Verizon iPhone would disadvantage Verizon?



    You seem to be arguing for argument's sake (I have said nothing disrespectful of Verizon or Android) which is why some wonder if you are not a Verizon shill.



    As the technewsworld article that I linked --- the original article is flawed because it only counted retail sales, when most of Blackberry's sales in the US are corporate enterprise. Of course, the Blackberry market share within Verizon "collapsed".



    The entire line of analysis is idiotic. The article painted Verizon as being backed in a corner --- meanwhile if you look at the real data, Verizon beats AT&T in ARPU, beats AT&T in data ARPU, beats AT&T in churn, beats AT&T in profit and profit margins, tie AT&T in postpaid net adds... I don't see how anyone can agree with even a single line of that article.



    Of course, Verizon would like to add the iPhone to its handset arsenal --- they have been saying that since day 1. But that doesn't mean that they will give the farm away just to have it.
  • Reply 103 of 108
    noirdesirnoirdesir Posts: 1,027member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sprockkets View Post


    Uh, I freely admitted that based on the available evidence. Hope you aren't thinking you just gave me a revelation, cause you didn't.



    You freely admitted that Android is not as competitive as the iPhone? This is news to me. I do not read your sentence: "To come to the conclusion that Android cannot compete with the iphone based on how it sells at Verizon is downright retarded." as admitting this.

    Quote:

    Also too, if the iphone is sold on all carriers is is likely that Att's sales will go down since most find Att to be crap, Consumer Reports included. As I already said, we will find out soon enough.



    Of the 14 m iPhones sold at AT&T, 10 m came from existing subscribers and 4 m from new subscribers. At worst, the switching from any carrier (ie, also from Sprint and T-Mobile) comes to a halt and AT&T looses these 4 m new subscribers and Verizon gets an equivalent 10 m iPhone customers out of its own subscriber base. In the short term, there will be some pent-up demand, in the mid-term, the total number of smartphone customers will increase noticeably (and this will likely help both leading platforms).
  • Reply 104 of 108
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bidmaconline View Post


    why the cost of apple is too cheap? and sell dear?



    I'll answer those questions if you rewrite them to become actual questions.
  • Reply 105 of 108
    Does Verizon understand that AT&T sells are higher because in the US you can't get an iPhone any where else. With Android, you can buy them with any carrier. If Verizon was the only carrier for Android them trust me the numbers would be a lot different.
  • Reply 106 of 108
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macnyc View Post


    Give me a break, you had the first Android phone and liked it? Compared to an iPhone? You're not very demanding apparently...



    I love Apple products but lets not fool ourselves. They are making big inroads. if Apple does not choose another carrier, Android will own the top Smartphone spot. The HTC is a reputable device even though I love my iPhone4... Maybe this competition will keep Apple honest and not taking customers for granted...
  • Reply 107 of 108
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tutumiles1 View Post


    I love Apple products but lets not fool ourselves. They are making big inroads. if Apple does not choose another carrier, Android will own the top Smartphone spot. The HTC is a reputable device even though I love my iPhone4... Maybe this competition will keep Apple honest and not taking customers for granted...



    Top smartphone OS spot by counting unit numbers. Apple has a huge lead in profits and mindshare that still appears to be growing. Even if Apple releases an iPhone to all US carriers Android should still take overtake Symbian as the number handset OS in the world. It certainly won?t be Apple at the top of with an OS that is only on their HW and their HW starting a much higher price than you can get other mobiles for.
  • Reply 108 of 108
    nhtnht Posts: 4,522member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Top smartphone OS spot by counting unit numbers. Apple has a huge lead in profits and mindshare that still appears to be growing. Even if Apple releases an iPhone to all US carriers Android should still take overtake Symbian as the number handset OS in the world. It certainly won?t be Apple at the top of with an OS that is only on their HW and their HW starting a much higher price than you can get other mobiles for.



    Yes, Apple had no shot at dominating the phone market whether talking about total market or just smartphones. Too many phones for Apple to build and sell enough at the margins they want.



    The tablet market? Possibly. It's a much more discretionary buy for folks with more discretionary income. For the moment, the major players (not the Shenzhen specials) seem to be settling around Apple's iPad price points and that hugely favors Apple.



    The primary outlier is the Nook Color and that's not a real tablet and likely subsidized by B&N based on expected e-book sales.
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