Apple's holiday iPhone, iPad and Mac sales stronger than expected - report

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
Apple is poised to report yet another record-breaking quarter this month, with channel checks indicating sales of the company's iPhone, iPad and Mac computers are tracking ahead of already lofty expectations.



Analyst Chris Whitmore with Deutsche Bank said in a note to investors on Tuesday that checks over the holidays indicated that Apple saw better-than-expected demand for both the iPad and the Mac. In addition, consumer demand for the iPhone showed no signs of slowing down, even as rumors of a Verizon iPhone loomed over the holiday buying season.



Over the holidays, Deutsche Bank checked in at more than 50 Apple retail and partner stores, and found lines and crowds driving "robust" demand for the iPhone. Despite this high demand, these checks found Apple was well prepared, with few stock-outs ahead of Christmas.



Whitmore said demand for the iPad, which remains "largely unchallenged" in the market, is tracking ahead of his model, and has accordingly increased sales estimates from 6 million to 6.5 million for the fourth quarter of calendar 2010. He also sees Apple selling 28 million iPads in 2011, up from his previous estimate of 22 million.



Checks suggested that the 32GB iPad with 3G connectivity was the most popular seller during the holiday season. And the attractive $999 price tag of the new 11-inch MacBook Air also prompted noteworthy demand.



"Apple continues to benefit from the strongest product offering in its history and the strong double-barreled product cycle is driving massive global demand for iPads and iPhones," he wrote. "Both categories are benefiting from additional carriers, international expansion, and limited competition."



The analyst also upped his iPhone sales projections for the holiday period to 16 million, up a million from the previous estimate of 15 million. He now expects Apple to sell 60 million iPhones in calendar year 2011, up from 55 million.







Whitmore's estimates do not, however, include the prospect of a Verizon iPhone, widely reported to become available in early 2011. He believes that the addition of Verizon as a U.S. carrier could bump Apple's iPhone sales up by 5 million to 7 million units.



"We expect a CDMA based iPhone to be a significant positive for AAPL with limited cannibalization at AT&T," he said. "Our DB colleague Brett Feldman, who covers Telecom Services, estimates that Verizon will add roughly 15M iPhones in 2011 with 6M cannibalized from AT&T."



Wall Street analysts will continue to share and revise their predictions in the weeks to come on what is generally expected to be another record breaking quarter for Apple. The Cupertino, Calif., company is set to report the earnings for its first fiscal quarter of 2011 on Tuesday, Jan. 18, and AppleInsider will have full live coverage as it happens.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 40
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,471member
    It depends on whose expectations you are judging by doesn't it



    I totally expected a blow out although many held back for iPad v2 so that launch is also going to be way past 'expectations' too.



    Buy that AAPL folks .. it is only just getting started ...
  • Reply 2 of 40
    801801 Posts: 271member
    I wonder how many other retail outlets Deutsche bank did this sort of research to.



    Did they station guys outside of Walmart?

    Did they have them outside of GM dealerships?

    How about Yankee Candle outlets? Why Apple only? I mean, this was concerted effort, with at least 100 people, plus support personal, to measure Apples performance. How much is this data worth, anyway?
  • Reply 3 of 40
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,471member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 801 View Post


    I wonder how many other retail outlets Deutsche bank did this sort of research to.



    Did they station guys outside of Walmart?

    Did they have them outside of GM dealerships?

    How about Yankee Candle outlets? Why Apple only? I mean, this was concerted effort, with at least 100 people, plus support personal, to measure Apples performance. How much is this data worth, anyway?



    redacted... error Will Robinson.
  • Reply 4 of 40
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,608member
    The closer scrutiny is required due to AAPL's secretive nature in many regards, and also because of it's growth rate. The do similar things in different ways for other companies. It gives a very good sanity check.



    Maybe international sales aren't as solid as US, but I see about 5-10x as many iPads on the street as 3 months ago. That makes it hard for me to believe they didn't sell 8-9MM units this quarter, and it seems like it should be closer to 15MM... but I don't think that is physically possible.
  • Reply 5 of 40
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,962member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 801 View Post


    I wonder how many other retail outlets Deutsche bank did this sort of research to.



    Did they station guys outside of Walmart?

    Did they have them outside of GM dealerships?

    How about Yankee Candle outlets? Why Apple only? I mean, this was concerted effort, with at least 100 people, plus support personal, to measure Apples performance.



    I was at an Apple store last week waiting at the Genius Bar and I saw a guy sitting on a bench just outside the store doors. He was there for over an hour. When I left, I looked over his shoulder and he had two crossword puzzles on a clipboard except that he was filling in sections with tally marks instead of letters.



    I don't know how many people like him were in malls around the country, but there is no doubt. In my mind that he was working for some analyst...



    Quote:

    How much is this data worth, anyway?



    Thats easy. If you can get information about how a publicly traded company is doing before anyone else, it can be worth millions (assuming you have enough money to act on that information).

    In articles yesterday, there was a great deal of discussion about AAPL being under valued for it's growth rate (for whatever reason--enormous market cap/disrespect/anti-Apple bias...) so any indication that sales growth is exceeding expectations could be expected to have a spring-loaded impact on it's price!
  • Reply 6 of 40
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,471member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


    I was at an Apple store last week waiting at the Genius Bar and I saw a guy sitting on a bench just outside the store doors. He was there for over an hour. When I left, I looked over his shoulder and he had two crossword puzzles on a clipboard except that he was filling in sections with tally marks instead of letters.



    I don't know how many people like him were in malls around the country, but there is no doubt. In my mind that he was working for some analyst...



    I was in ther Boston Apple Store during the blizzard and it was still absolutely packed! Didn't see any one outside though! It was a whiteout out there so there could have been.
  • Reply 7 of 40
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,471member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


    The closer scrutiny is required due to AAPL's secretive nature in many regards, and also because of it's growth rate. The do similar things in different ways for other companies. It gives a very good sanity check.



    Maybe international sales aren't as solid as US, but I see about 5-10x as many iPads on the street as 3 months ago. That makes it hard for me to believe they didn't sell 8-9MM units this quarter, and it seems like it should be closer to 15MM... but I don't think that is physically possible.



    I already mentioned this on another thread, but it is worth repeating. While stranded in Boston from Christmas to New Year I was amazed to see the hotel lounge / lobby area filled with people sipping coffee and hot cider using Apple products everywhere I looked. I was there five days and only saw a single PC on the last day. It was like being in an Apple store!
  • Reply 8 of 40
    j1h15233j1h15233 Posts: 274member
    In other news, today is Tuesday!



    Why are they always so surprised that Apple exceeds their expectations? When do they not?
  • Reply 9 of 40
    tenguytenguy Posts: 21member
    I own a ton of AAPL stock (as well as a ton of their "stuff") plus I visit Apple Stores whenever I can just for giggles. I am always amazed at how "surprised" these analysts are every time the earnings are announced. A person doesn't need to sit outside a Store & tally the visitors. All they need to do is go in, hang around for a few minutes & see the high volume of customers & browsers inside AND, more importantly, the high percentage that have boxes in their hands. The only thing that will hurt Apple stock is some health issue with Jobs.
  • Reply 10 of 40
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by j1h15233 View Post


    In other news, today is Tuesday!



    Why are they always so surprised that Apple exceeds their expectations? When do they not?



    Especially during this quarter...
  • Reply 11 of 40
    wonderwonder Posts: 229member
    Wait for the doom and gloom to follow....



    You know what happened last time the analysts bigged up the expected sales numbers, they never happened and then the Apple Stock was hit.



    It needs to be said that these are NOT Apple's estimated sales, but some analyst who may get them wrong and ultimately screw up the Apple stock price again!
  • Reply 12 of 40
    wonderwonder Posts: 229member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by j1h15233 View Post


    In other news, today is Tuesday!



    Why are they always so surprised that Apple exceeds their expectations? When do they not?



    They did not exceed the iPad sales they forecasted last quarter and as a result the Apple stock price was hit. Not because Apple did anything wrong, but just because analysts over predicted sales.
  • Reply 13 of 40
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,962member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    I was in ther Boston Apple Store during the blizzard and it was still absolutely packed! Didn't see any one outside though! It was a whiteout out there so there could have been.



    Lol! This guy had a cushy job inside a mall... He was very focussed though--all business.



    I suppose AI could start some monitoring system where we watch the analysts' watchers to track how, when and where they are getting their info...
  • Reply 14 of 40
    alandailalandail Posts: 702member
    I think they are way underestimating 2011 iPad sales. I suspect that carrier subsidized sales will be a big part of iPad 2.0. Verizon and AT&T in the US as part of a deal to keep the iPad and iPhone off of Sprint and T-Mobile for a year.
  • Reply 15 of 40
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by alandail View Post


    I suspect that carrier subsidized sales will be a big part of iPad 2.0. Verizon and AT&T in the US as part of a deal to keep the iPad and iPhone off of Sprint and T-Mobile for a year.



    I can?t say I agree but it is an intriguing thought. They could sell more units but how many more that way? How well did the 3G enabled netbooks sells from carriers compared to non-subsidized netbooks? Is it worth it to enough customers to save $200-300 up front just to be tied to a binding a contract for 2 years for an items that currently has a month-to-month option? Also, as of 2010 we need to consider the MyWi units they are pushing which can connect multiple devices.
  • Reply 16 of 40
    wonderwonder Posts: 229member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by alandail View Post


    I think they are way underestimating 2011 iPad sales. I suspect that carrier subsidized sales will be a big part of iPad 2.0. Verizon and AT&T in the US as part of a deal to keep the iPad and iPhone off of Sprint and T-Mobile for a year.



    Carrier subsidised sales of the iPad in the UK has not been a success.

    Orange expected big sales but only managed 1,000 in it's first week of sales:



    http://www.macrumors.com/2011/01/04/...w-start-in-uk/
  • Reply 17 of 40
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tenguy View Post


    I visit Apple Stores whenever I can just for giggles.



    Totally off subject, but I wonder if Apple has given any thought to creating a specialized shirt for each Apple store just like Harley-Davidson stores do. Whenever I travel, I grab shirts for the kids as souvenirs and it would be much cooler if they were Apple Store shirts from the various locations.
  • Reply 18 of 40
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wonder View Post


    Carrier subsidised sales of the iPad in the UK has not been a success.

    Orange expected big sales but only managed 1,000 in it's first week of sales:



    http://www.macrumors.com/2011/01/04/...w-start-in-uk/



    The article says "or Orange (and possibly the other UK carriers) failed to appropriately bring the offerings to the attention of customers who might have been interested in the packages"



    I suspect that was the real problem. The iPad works best with continuous data access. That's how I am posting this message right now.
  • Reply 19 of 40
    801801 Posts: 271member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    So you are now on record it seems as saying you don't think Apple had a 'beyond analysts expectations' holiday season.



    We will soon see.



    Whoa, Whoa, Whoa, I am in no position to comment one way or the other. I am only saying that Deutche bank went to a lot of trouble for.... what? Is this standard for them to monitor retail stores in the US? Did they check germany? Does Apple let them?Only Apple? Is this insider trading? I mean, if a guy finds an Iphone, and opens it for research, they sue him. A guy sits outside a store watching your customers, well, at my shop, the Philadelphia police would get his ID and give him the bum rush.
  • Reply 20 of 40
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I can’t say I agree but it is an intriguing thought. They could sell more units but how many more that way? How well did the 3G enabled netbooks sells from carriers compared to non-subsidized netbooks? Is it worth it to enough customers to save $200-300 up front just to be tied to a binding a contract for 2 years for an items that currently has a month-to-month option? Also, as of 2010 we need to consider the MyWi units they are pushing which can connect multiple devices.



    The myfii is an extra device to carry around and keep charged. I am sure that bundle goes away when the verizon iPad 2 is available. I have a Myfi and still upgraded to the 3G iPad because I found I didnt always have the myfi with me when I needed wireless access from my iPad.
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