Report: Tablet buyers will rapidly upgrade, lion's share will be iPads
Tablet sales are expected to more than double this year, thanks in large part to buyers rapidly upgrading to the latest models in the same way iPod users did. And most tablet buyers will be choosing Apple's iPad.
A report by Forrester Research analyst Sarah Rotman Epps predicts tablet sales will "grow as fast as MP3 players," more than doubling to 24 million this year and reaching 44 million by 2015.
"Of those sales, the lion's share will be iPads, and despite many would-be competitors that will be released at CES, we see Apple commanding the vast majority of the tablet market through 2012," Epps wrote.
Tablet users will increase even faster, hitting 82.1 million by 2015, the report projects. In explaining this predicted phenomenon, the report states that "one major assumption that changed in our model is the replacement rate, which we think will be closer to that of MP3 players or iPhones than to that of PCs."
The report states that "tablets are proving themselves to be 'lifestyle devices' at home and at work, and as such we think consumers will upgrade to newer models more rapidly than they would a more utilitarian device like a PC."
The report added, "we think a significant number of first-generation iPad buyers will buy iPad 2 when it comes out this year ? many first-gen iPads will end up entertaining the kids in the back of the car while Mom and Dad get the shiny new (likely Facetime-compatible) model."
If current buyers are really going to be snatching up every new model (much like many early iPod and iPhone adopters did), it would seem like the number of tablet buyers should be closer to the number of tablets being sold, not twice as much as modeled by Forrester.
"As for Android tablets," the report notes, "Research In Motion's BlackBerry PlayBook, Microsoft's Windows-based tablets, and tablets that run on HP's and Nokia's platforms, they'll take a backseat to Apple, but in a market this big, there's room for more than one player. By 2015, 82 million US consumers -- one-third of US online consumers -- will be using a tablet, and not all of them will be iPads."
"Consumers didn't ask for tablets"
Interestingly, the same analyst at Forrester predicted last summer that tablet computers would cannibalize netbooks and overtake them in sales by 2012, but that the total number of tablets would only reach 3.5 million by the end of 2010.
By the time of that report, Apple had already sold 2 million iPads, suggesting that Forrester believed the iPad to be a flash in the pan that would quickly fizzle out.
"Consumers didn't ask for tablets," Epps wrote in her summary last June. "In fact, Forrester's data shows that the top features consumers say they want in a PC are a complete mismatch with the features of the iPad."
Forrester now reports that 10.3 million tablets have sold in 2010, despite the fact that Apple has already reported sales of more than 7 million though September, and that analysts expect the company to have sold between 5 to 7.5 million more in the winter quarter. Other manufacturers have also sold some tablets.
Forrester analyst James McQuivey previously predicted through 2006 and 2007 that Apple's iTunes would fail as video content moved to an ad supported model.
A report by Forrester Research analyst Sarah Rotman Epps predicts tablet sales will "grow as fast as MP3 players," more than doubling to 24 million this year and reaching 44 million by 2015.
"Of those sales, the lion's share will be iPads, and despite many would-be competitors that will be released at CES, we see Apple commanding the vast majority of the tablet market through 2012," Epps wrote.
Tablet users will increase even faster, hitting 82.1 million by 2015, the report projects. In explaining this predicted phenomenon, the report states that "one major assumption that changed in our model is the replacement rate, which we think will be closer to that of MP3 players or iPhones than to that of PCs."
The report states that "tablets are proving themselves to be 'lifestyle devices' at home and at work, and as such we think consumers will upgrade to newer models more rapidly than they would a more utilitarian device like a PC."
The report added, "we think a significant number of first-generation iPad buyers will buy iPad 2 when it comes out this year ? many first-gen iPads will end up entertaining the kids in the back of the car while Mom and Dad get the shiny new (likely Facetime-compatible) model."
If current buyers are really going to be snatching up every new model (much like many early iPod and iPhone adopters did), it would seem like the number of tablet buyers should be closer to the number of tablets being sold, not twice as much as modeled by Forrester.
"As for Android tablets," the report notes, "Research In Motion's BlackBerry PlayBook, Microsoft's Windows-based tablets, and tablets that run on HP's and Nokia's platforms, they'll take a backseat to Apple, but in a market this big, there's room for more than one player. By 2015, 82 million US consumers -- one-third of US online consumers -- will be using a tablet, and not all of them will be iPads."
"Consumers didn't ask for tablets"
Interestingly, the same analyst at Forrester predicted last summer that tablet computers would cannibalize netbooks and overtake them in sales by 2012, but that the total number of tablets would only reach 3.5 million by the end of 2010.
By the time of that report, Apple had already sold 2 million iPads, suggesting that Forrester believed the iPad to be a flash in the pan that would quickly fizzle out.
"Consumers didn't ask for tablets," Epps wrote in her summary last June. "In fact, Forrester's data shows that the top features consumers say they want in a PC are a complete mismatch with the features of the iPad."
Forrester now reports that 10.3 million tablets have sold in 2010, despite the fact that Apple has already reported sales of more than 7 million though September, and that analysts expect the company to have sold between 5 to 7.5 million more in the winter quarter. Other manufacturers have also sold some tablets.
Forrester analyst James McQuivey previously predicted through 2006 and 2007 that Apple's iTunes would fail as video content moved to an ad supported model.
Comments
The simple fact of the matter is the competition cannot compete on hardware or software.
Other manufacturers have also sold some tablets.
Love that line.
Unless there's some sort of price drop, it doesn't seem likely that people will jump to replace a $500-800 device every year.
I might be convinced. It depends on what's in the newer model.
Unless there's some sort of price drop, it doesn't seem likely that people will jump to replace a $500-800 device every year.
Current users will simply eBay their 1st-gen iPads, or they will be eagerly taken by spouses, kids, etc.
2nd-gen iPad will certainly outsell the 1st-gen now that it hit the market and has brand recognition.
Make your mind up ... you just said "... first-gen iPads will end up entertaining the kids in the back of the car"
Current users will simply eBay their 1st-gen iPads, or they will be eagerly taken by spouses, kids, etc.
2nd-gen iPad will certainly outsell the 1st-gen now that it hit the market and has brand recognition.
What do you mean 'brand recognition'? You can't mean it in the ordinary sense where a relatively unknown company and product gain enough market awareness to where people will recognize the brand as a solid choice. Apple has to be one ofthe best known brands in the world and the iPad launched to much fanfare. I definitely believe some people had to be made aware of what the product could do for them before the iPad could break wide, but not that it existed at all.
80M in 2015 and not 44M is my belief.
And, no people won't buy a new iPad (and some other tablets, LOL) EVERY year, but they will do it EVERY OTHER year.
I don't buy a new iMac every year, but I do buy one every 2-2.5 years as the new features are cool and I justify it for my business.
My 2 year old son already owns my iPad. He took it off my hands literally and I never got it back since. Thought about getting another one but decided to hold off for iPad 2.
Same thing with my son. I can't even touch it now except to put my iTunes password in to get updates or buy a new game.
My wife wants (she says needs) one for work, so we're waiting for gen 2 for her...
For example, many upgraded iPods until there were no more features... Black and white, color, camera, video, touchscreen... Etc.
Lion's share? Noooo It's an iOS product remember?
Good eye! I missed that. Seems so obvious now!
I have to agree with the article...I upgraded my iPod shuffles and nano's giving the older ones to my daughter and niece.
I was an original adopter of the 1st gen. iPhone, the first intel iMac and the first intel MacBook. (I have sold my MacBook for $300)
I've sold 2 generations of iPhones (1st gen., and a 3Gs) to now have the iPhone 4 and if ATT lets me, I will sell it and upgrade to the iPhone 5 when it comes out sometime this year.
If my business was doing better, I definitely would have bought an iPad, an MBA and a 27" iMac.
And I would upgrade by selling my older models...for example, let's say I did buy the first gen iPad for $500, used it for 10 months and then sold it for $250 and bought a new one. Essentially, I've "rented" the first one for $25/mo...pretty good deal!
Anyway, perhaps I'm stating the obvious...but I like to have the latest and greatest Apple stuff...but only been able to really accomplish it lately with the iPhones.
Best
Unless there's some sort of price drop, it doesn't seem likely that people will jump to replace a $500-800 device every year.
If you don't get to use your iPad because the kids always have it you might. I'd say that most people will use it enough to upgrade every 2-3 years. Enthusiasts and wealthier consumers will upgrade every year. Right now a significant number of users either have others in their households or are enthusiasts. So there will probably be a significant number of repeat buyers.
Unless there's some sort of price drop, it doesn't seem likely that people will jump to replace a $500-800 device every year.
I'm sure there are quite a few people who will be adding another iPad to the household... I'm not sure if this scenario counts as upgrading.
What do you mean 'brand recognition'? You can't mean it in the ordinary sense where a relatively unknown company and product gain enough market awareness to where people will recognize the brand as a solid choice. Apple has to be one ofthe best known brands in the world and the iPad launched to much fanfare. I definitely believe some people had to be made aware of what the product could do for them before the iPad could break wide, but not that it existed at all.
Sorry for being vague. I meant to iterate that that consumers are much more aware of the "iPad" name and product, just like folks know of "iPod".
I'm sure there are quite a few people who will be adding another iPad to the household... I'm not sure if this scenario counts as upgrading.
Agreed, if my GF was nicer to me, I would get her an iPhone 4 and an iPad!
She's out right now with her "best friend."
I never did like that guy!
Best
Agreed, if my GF was nicer to me, I would get her an iPhone 4 and an iPad!
She's out right now with her "best friend."
I never did like that guy!
Best
Hmmmmm... buy her a Zune!
Although, I am curious to see what Motorola has up their sleeve at CES.
Good eye! I missed that. Seems so obvious now!
I have to agree with the article...I upgraded my iPod shuffles and nano's giving the older ones to my daughter and niece.
I was an original adopter of the 1st gen. iPhone, the first intel iMac and the first intel MacBook. (I have sold my MacBook for $300)
I've sold 2 generations of iPhones (1st gen., and a 3Gs) to now have the iPhone 4 and if ATT lets me, I will sell it and upgrade to the iPhone 5 when it comes out sometime this year.
If my business was doing better, I definitely would have bought an iPad, an MBA and a 27" iMac.
And I would upgrade by selling my older models...for example, let's say I did buy the first gen iPad for $500, used it for 10 months and then sold it for $250 and bought a new one. Essentially, I've "rented" the first one for $25/mo...pretty good deal!
Anyway, perhaps I'm stating the obvious...but I like to have the latest and greatest Apple stuff...but only been able to really accomplish it lately with the iPhones.
Best
I am curious about Verizon offerings if they materialize. Our iPhone 3Gs are over 2 years with AT&T so could switch if better plan without penalty. Also tethering might be better deal, since AT&T don't offer a very good deal (I understand you give up the grandfathered unlimited data plan). We have FiOS here so everything else is Verizon so I am also hoping there may be some bundle deal for iPads and iPhones in with that. I hope we will know soon .. I am dying for an iPhone 4 and an iPad 2 also being an Apple junky