Well, my analog cranium says mid-Feb announcement for a mid-March launch. Remember this is a new product launch so the 5 million iPad2s will be the opening salvo, meaning they need to stock up massively on it. For example, if there is a mid-March launch in 10 countries, that 5 million will pretty much be gone by the end of March.
Yeah, I don’t see much reason for Apple to jump the gun on the iPad release. I can see a March release if we assume the original iPad had some growing pains getting to market. The WiFi and WiFi+3G models were too far spread out for an Apple product, IMO, which tells me there could be something to that.
I think if any release should have been earlier than usual it was the iPhone 4 and Apple didn’t budge, even with the Gizmodo dissecting it 2 months earlier.
iPad in Spring (Equinox is 20-MAR-2011*)
iPhone in Summer (Solstice is 21-JUN-2011*)
iPods in Autumn (Equinox is 23-SEPT-2011*)
Hold the line in Winter.
Macs are all over the place due to Intel’s cycles.
* Reference points, not when I think these items will be released.
I am going to take your last paragraph and rephrase it for a specific situation:
What would happen if Apple delayed the iPad2 until, say August 2011 (at the latest) with a a 2x ppi display and all the other goodies?
They could announce the iPad2 any time before July and offer the iPad1 models at reduced prices.
The developers would have more robust hardware (and iOS) to exploit and could offer for pay upgrades.
The consumer would have the option to buy now for less or wait and pay/get more.
If the iPad 2 did not obsolete the iPad 1 then this could benefit all.
I wan't that 2x ppi iPad 2 and I don't want to wait until April 2012.
That's a tough one! With all the new tablets coming out in the spring to early summer, I don't know if Apple could wait that long. I was hoping that they would release the iPad 2 a month or two early. Then that would give them a headstart, and next year, they would be a month after the holidays. But, if they released a month, or so early next year, it could be available in December some time. That wouldn't knock things out of kilter for them.
It seemed possible, because the tablet was delayed for a month last year because of production ramp-up problems due to higher than expected demand. It was thought that Apple wouldn't have this problem this year, and so the tablet would be available in early March. It still may be! I think Apple could get away with shortening the delivery time a month or two for a couple of years to align their releases. but they may NOT want to do that. This timing may be deliberate.
It certainly possible that the Rez of the screen will hold up for another year. Apple thinks in longer terms than most other manufacturers. There is a good article about that which I just though of. If I have the time I'll post it here. It's about Apple and Jobs's philosophy. Very interesting.
If Apple doesn't think that this screen, abet improved, won't hurt sales to any serious degree, they will be willing to wait until the QC and price is where they need it. It's thought that some, if not most of that recent $3.9 billion they gave for machinery and tooling is for displays for iOS devices. It could be for these screens specifically. Samsung is ahem, coincidentally building a 3.4 Billion dollar factory to produce screens here, in the USA. Thoughts are that it may be for Apple. True? Maybe.
I am going to take your last paragraph and rephrase it for a specific situation:
What would happen if Apple delayed the iPad2 until, say, August 2011 (at the latest) with a a 2x ppi display and all the other goodies?
They could announce the iPad2 any time before July and offer the iPad1 models at reduced prices.
The developers would have more robust hardware (and iOS) to exploit and could offer for pay upgrades.
The consumer would have the option to buy now for less or wait and pay/get more.
If the iPad 2 did not obsolete the iPad 1 then this could benefit all.
I want that 2x ppi iPad n and I don't want to wait until April 2012.
Rather than edit, I will reply to my own question.
It makes more sense to get the Dual-Core CPU, Dual-Core GPU and more RAM (cameras & gyroscope) iPad2 out there ASAP. That way Apple can support OpenCL and GCD (and a few new APIs rumored to be in iOS). Developers can start taking advantage of these immediately.
Then, whenever practical (Aug-Dec), add a 2x ppi display with more RAM, SSD -- call it an iPad 2X -- these would not be disruptive to developers. The consumer that needs the added capability could buy it. It would not obsolete the iPad 2 -- rather add 2 high-end SKUs and for 2011, have a 2-model year.
But you have to know that Apple doesn't buy the Flash at those prices. I've read that it costs them $25 for 16GB. They buy in bulk plus they are "the number one flash storage users" so they must get discounts for that.
Yeah, but they got discounts on NAND before and they are the most notable reason the prices aren’t dropping. There is little reason to give Apple better and better discounts when NAND manufactures will be able to sell all they can make regardless. In other words, you get to a point when the discount may save Apple millions but it’s a nominal discount per NAND chip or per GB that could be passed onto the customer. I’d even say there is a chance that Apple’s negotiations these days aren’t focused as much about getting cheaper NAND as they are about getting NAND productions before others.
But you have to know that Apple doesn't buy the Flash at those prices. I've read that it costs them $25 for 16GB. They buy in bulk plus they are "the number one flash storage users" so they must get discounts for that.
It doesn't matter. Apple is still in the basic cycle. While they lock memory up in large amounts, what happens if spot prices drop below what they've locked up? Most likely, and this is from experience, they're stuck with their pricing.
I don't know what you've "heard" about what Apple pays, but whatever it is, it costs the customer anywhere from two to three times that price at retail. I was a manufacturer of electronics, so I've got some understanding of how this works.
We need a new generation of flash for prices to drop significantly. While Samsung is just starting production of that new generation, whether it's advanced enough in its schedule to meet Apple's needs, I don't know. and it will take some time for that new process to drop a lot in price. A few months, anyway. Apple COULD have a deal with Samsung on overall pricing over the next year for this new memory that will bring pricing down to where they need it, but can Samsung meet the need so early? I don't have that answer, and it's a secret. Only if they have problems, or the new iPad starts at 32 GB and ends at 128 for the same price will we know.
That's a tough one! With all the new tablets coming out in the spring to early summer, I don't know if Apple could wait that long. I was hoping that they would release the iPad 2 a month or two early. Then that would give them a headstart, and next year, they would be a month after the holidays. But, if they released a month, or so early next year, it could be available in December some time. That wouldn't knock things out of kilter for them.
It seemed possible, because the tablet was delayed for a month last year because of production ramp-up problems due to higher than expected demand. It was thought that Apple wouldn't have this problem this year, and so the tablet would be available in early March. It still may be! I think Apple could get away with shortening the delivery time a month or two for a couple of years to align their releases. but they may NOT want to do that. This timing may be deliberate.
It certainly possible that the Rez of the screen will hold up for another year. Apple thinks in longer terms than most other manufacturers. There is a good article about that which I just though of. If I have the time I'll post it here. It's about Apple and Jobs's philosophy. Very interesting.
If Apple doesn't think that this screen, abet improved, won't hurt sales to any serious degree, they will be willing to wait until the QC and price is where they need it. It's thought that some, if not most of that recent $3.9 billion they gave for machinery and tooling is for displays for iOS devices. It could be for these screens specifically. Samsung is ahem, coincidentally building a 3.4 Billion dollar factory to produce screens here, in the USA. Thoughts are that it may be for Apple. True? Maybe.
So, Feb announce iPad 2 Dualies at current rez -- Mar delivery.
Nov announce iPad 2X (High-end Dualies) + Retina + RAM + SSD bump -- Dec delivery)
Well guys. I just had to break this up with something completely different. This is something that Apple should have thought of! A bit out of their field, but...
Well guys. I just had to break this up with something completely different. This is something that Apple should have thought of! A bit out of their field, but...
Well guys. I just had to break this up with something completely different. This is something that Apple should have thought of! A bit out of their field, but...
This is another case of the customer not knowing what they want. If price was the only issue, the cheap tablet that had come out before the iPad would have been a smashing success.
Well guys. I just had to break this up with something completely different. This is something that Apple should have thought of! A bit out of their field, but...
Another thing that does bother me is the stupid rear camera. How efficient can it be to take a picture with a device that is almost ten inches tall? It is too big to be taking pictures with! If they do add this rear facing camera it is pure competition pressure.[/QUOTE]
It is not stupid if it is used in Face Time as shown in the ad for the Apple phone.
Another thing that does bother me is the stupid rear camera. How efficient can it be to take a picture with a device that is almost ten inches tall? It is too big to be taking pictures with! If they do add this rear facing camera it is pure competition pressure.
It is not stupid if it is used in Face Time as shown in the ad for the Apple phone.[/QUOTE]
This is not for photographs. It is more likely for uses like barcodes and augmented reality apps.
I don't understand your logic at all. The iPad and iPhone are products designed for different markets and neither truly replaces the other.
I understand it. The data features of the iPhone and the 3G iPad overlap so much that having both doesn't make sense to many folks. And spending the added fee for the larger screened iPad isn't a bad call
I have never found FAS to be convenient. I have pretty much every app on my home screen, expect for my 2nd page for new apps I?m still debating on keeping. I prefer the multi-touch swipes found in the 4.3 betas. It does the same thing as FAS, it cycles through your apps as they were last used without having to first double-tap the Home Button and then choose an app.
I loved FAS - or more accurately FAS along with more (or all?) developers implementing it.
On the iPhone it was nice but it totally changed the way I used the iPad.
Most of the time though, (like 99%) I'm just jumping back to the previous app, so I don't need the full list of previous applications.
A back button would be better, or maybe a triple home tap to go back to the previous app.
The multi-touch swipes look like the best solution by far, but I'm not sure how Apple will enforce them in 3rd party apps. Maybe it will be an optional thing that we can control and can be turned off for any apps that implement similar gestures.
Another thing that does bother me is the stupid rear camera. How efficient can it be to take a picture with a device that is almost ten inches tall? It is too big to be taking pictures with! If they do add this rear facing camera it is pure competition pressure.
Screw pictures, it's got to be for augmented reality.
The augmented reality implementations have been limited so far but with a dual core CPU and a GPU 3x faster than an iPhone4 things are going to get interesting.
Maybe not quite as interesting as a pair of glasses that beam an augmented reality overlay directly on to your retina (that still might be 10 years away) but interesting never-the-less
1 - BEST) Apple includes the above rumoured specs, along with a retina display, and keeps the same price. Everyone is blown away and happy. People need to realize that the ONLY thing apple can include that will really be a big upgrade and blow people away in a retina display, everything else is minor. It's not like PC's where the second new hardware is released, there are already games/programs coming out that need something better. Everything is made to run perfect on the iPad 1, and for the next year it will probably be the same. Having way better specs on the iPad 2 will really only allow it to run more advanced apps that come out in a year or two (when the iPad 1 is basically discontinued from app support). Until then the iPad 1/2 will be basically interchangeable.
2 - most likely and WORST) Apple will include the above rumoured specs, and keep the price the same. There is no real incentive to upgrade from iPad 1, and no real reason for new buys NOT to buy one. They get to say 'hey I have the NEW iPad, jealous?" and use all of the same apps as iPad 1 users.
3 - medium ground) Apple will include the above mentioned specs (big speed upgrade but as I said before, no real big changes in functionality) and drop the prices $50-100 across the board. Everyone in the know recognizes that the upgrade was minimal, like going from the iPhone 3G to 3GS, BUT it's gotten cheaper and so balances out. This will also help to get more people to buy into the iTunes ecosystem and further tighten Apples stronghold on the mobile computing world.
My vote is for #2 because, well, you know, this is Apple we're talking about.
Comments
Keeping yer brain active, I see.
Well, my analog cranium says mid-Feb announcement for a mid-March launch. Remember this is a new product launch so the 5 million iPad2s will be the opening salvo, meaning they need to stock up massively on it. For example, if there is a mid-March launch in 10 countries, that 5 million will pretty much be gone by the end of March.
Yeah, I don’t see much reason for Apple to jump the gun on the iPad release. I can see a March release if we assume the original iPad had some growing pains getting to market. The WiFi and WiFi+3G models were too far spread out for an Apple product, IMO, which tells me there could be something to that.
I think if any release should have been earlier than usual it was the iPhone 4 and Apple didn’t budge, even with the Gizmodo dissecting it 2 months earlier.
iPad in Spring (Equinox is 20-MAR-2011*)
iPhone in Summer (Solstice is 21-JUN-2011*)
iPods in Autumn (Equinox is 23-SEPT-2011*)
Hold the line in Winter.
Macs are all over the place due to Intel’s cycles.
* Reference points, not when I think these items will be released.
Sigh...
very good points, all!
I am going to take your last paragraph and rephrase it for a specific situation:
What would happen if Apple delayed the iPad2 until, say August 2011 (at the latest) with a a 2x ppi display and all the other goodies?
They could announce the iPad2 any time before July and offer the iPad1 models at reduced prices.
The developers would have more robust hardware (and iOS) to exploit and could offer for pay upgrades.
The consumer would have the option to buy now for less or wait and pay/get more.
If the iPad 2 did not obsolete the iPad 1 then this could benefit all.
I wan't that 2x ppi iPad 2 and I don't want to wait until April 2012.
That's a tough one! With all the new tablets coming out in the spring to early summer, I don't know if Apple could wait that long. I was hoping that they would release the iPad 2 a month or two early. Then that would give them a headstart, and next year, they would be a month after the holidays. But, if they released a month, or so early next year, it could be available in December some time. That wouldn't knock things out of kilter for them.
It seemed possible, because the tablet was delayed for a month last year because of production ramp-up problems due to higher than expected demand. It was thought that Apple wouldn't have this problem this year, and so the tablet would be available in early March. It still may be! I think Apple could get away with shortening the delivery time a month or two for a couple of years to align their releases. but they may NOT want to do that. This timing may be deliberate.
It certainly possible that the Rez of the screen will hold up for another year. Apple thinks in longer terms than most other manufacturers. There is a good article about that which I just though of. If I have the time I'll post it here. It's about Apple and Jobs's philosophy. Very interesting.
If Apple doesn't think that this screen, abet improved, won't hurt sales to any serious degree, they will be willing to wait until the QC and price is where they need it. It's thought that some, if not most of that recent $3.9 billion they gave for machinery and tooling is for displays for iOS devices. It could be for these screens specifically. Samsung is ahem, coincidentally building a 3.4 Billion dollar factory to produce screens here, in the USA. Thoughts are that it may be for Apple. True? Maybe.
Sigh...
very good points, all!
I am going to take your last paragraph and rephrase it for a specific situation:
What would happen if Apple delayed the iPad2 until, say, August 2011 (at the latest) with a a 2x ppi display and all the other goodies?
They could announce the iPad2 any time before July and offer the iPad1 models at reduced prices.
The developers would have more robust hardware (and iOS) to exploit and could offer for pay upgrades.
The consumer would have the option to buy now for less or wait and pay/get more.
If the iPad 2 did not obsolete the iPad 1 then this could benefit all.
I want that 2x ppi iPad n and I don't want to wait until April 2012.
Rather than edit, I will reply to my own question.
It makes more sense to get the Dual-Core CPU, Dual-Core GPU and more RAM (cameras & gyroscope) iPad2 out there ASAP. That way Apple can support OpenCL and GCD (and a few new APIs rumored to be in iOS). Developers can start taking advantage of these immediately.
Then, whenever practical (Aug-Dec), add a 2x ppi display with more RAM, SSD -- call it an iPad 2X -- these would not be disruptive to developers. The consumer that needs the added capability could buy it. It would not obsolete the iPad 2 -- rather add 2 high-end SKUs and for 2011, have a 2-model year.
But you have to know that Apple doesn't buy the Flash at those prices. I've read that it costs them $25 for 16GB. They buy in bulk plus they are "the number one flash storage users" so they must get discounts for that.
Yeah, but they got discounts on NAND before and they are the most notable reason the prices aren’t dropping. There is little reason to give Apple better and better discounts when NAND manufactures will be able to sell all they can make regardless. In other words, you get to a point when the discount may save Apple millions but it’s a nominal discount per NAND chip or per GB that could be passed onto the customer. I’d even say there is a chance that Apple’s negotiations these days aren’t focused as much about getting cheaper NAND as they are about getting NAND productions before others.
The Streak Struck Out.
I think the technical term is it "crept in, crapped, then crept out"
But you have to know that Apple doesn't buy the Flash at those prices. I've read that it costs them $25 for 16GB. They buy in bulk plus they are "the number one flash storage users" so they must get discounts for that.
It doesn't matter. Apple is still in the basic cycle. While they lock memory up in large amounts, what happens if spot prices drop below what they've locked up? Most likely, and this is from experience, they're stuck with their pricing.
I don't know what you've "heard" about what Apple pays, but whatever it is, it costs the customer anywhere from two to three times that price at retail. I was a manufacturer of electronics, so I've got some understanding of how this works.
We need a new generation of flash for prices to drop significantly. While Samsung is just starting production of that new generation, whether it's advanced enough in its schedule to meet Apple's needs, I don't know. and it will take some time for that new process to drop a lot in price. A few months, anyway. Apple COULD have a deal with Samsung on overall pricing over the next year for this new memory that will bring pricing down to where they need it, but can Samsung meet the need so early? I don't have that answer, and it's a secret. Only if they have problems, or the new iPad starts at 32 GB and ends at 128 for the same price will we know.
I think the technical term is it "crept in, crapped, then crept out"
I was trying to be cute. You're trying to be accurate.
That's a tough one! With all the new tablets coming out in the spring to early summer, I don't know if Apple could wait that long. I was hoping that they would release the iPad 2 a month or two early. Then that would give them a headstart, and next year, they would be a month after the holidays. But, if they released a month, or so early next year, it could be available in December some time. That wouldn't knock things out of kilter for them.
It seemed possible, because the tablet was delayed for a month last year because of production ramp-up problems due to higher than expected demand. It was thought that Apple wouldn't have this problem this year, and so the tablet would be available in early March. It still may be! I think Apple could get away with shortening the delivery time a month or two for a couple of years to align their releases. but they may NOT want to do that. This timing may be deliberate.
It certainly possible that the Rez of the screen will hold up for another year. Apple thinks in longer terms than most other manufacturers. There is a good article about that which I just though of. If I have the time I'll post it here. It's about Apple and Jobs's philosophy. Very interesting.
If Apple doesn't think that this screen, abet improved, won't hurt sales to any serious degree, they will be willing to wait until the QC and price is where they need it. It's thought that some, if not most of that recent $3.9 billion they gave for machinery and tooling is for displays for iOS devices. It could be for these screens specifically. Samsung is ahem, coincidentally building a 3.4 Billion dollar factory to produce screens here, in the USA. Thoughts are that it may be for Apple. True? Maybe.
So, Feb announce iPad 2 Dualies at current rez -- Mar delivery.
Nov announce iPad 2X (High-end Dualies) + Retina + RAM + SSD bump -- Dec delivery)
When can I pre-order?
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=cuIJRsAuCHQ
Well guys. I just had to break this up with something completely different. This is something that Apple should have thought of! A bit out of their field, but...
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=cuIJRsAuCHQ
Neat...
How would that work with a hula-hoop?
Edit: I wonder if there is a Dualie model?
Best not let Woz see this -- he'll add Recaro Seats.
Well guys. I just had to break this up with something completely different. This is something that Apple should have thought of! A bit out of their field, but...
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=cuIJRsAuCHQ
Honda looked at the Segway and realized they could make personal transport even lazier. The next advancement will have the rider laying down.
Interesting perspective:
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart...eat-the-ipad-3
This is another case of the customer not knowing what they want. If price was the only issue, the cheap tablet that had come out before the iPad would have been a smashing success.
Well guys. I just had to break this up with something completely different. This is something that Apple should have thought of! A bit out of their field, but...
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=cuIJRsAuCHQ
Oh great. Another way for people to get fatter.
It is not stupid if it is used in Face Time as shown in the ad for the Apple phone.
Another thing that does bother me is the stupid rear camera. How efficient can it be to take a picture with a device that is almost ten inches tall? It is too big to be taking pictures with! If they do add this rear facing camera it is pure competition pressure.
It is not stupid if it is used in Face Time as shown in the ad for the Apple phone.[/QUOTE]
This is not for photographs. It is more likely for uses like barcodes and augmented reality apps.
I don't understand your logic at all. The iPad and iPhone are products designed for different markets and neither truly replaces the other.
I understand it. The data features of the iPhone and the 3G iPad overlap so much that having both doesn't make sense to many folks. And spending the added fee for the larger screened iPad isn't a bad call
I have never found FAS to be convenient. I have pretty much every app on my home screen, expect for my 2nd page for new apps I?m still debating on keeping. I prefer the multi-touch swipes found in the 4.3 betas. It does the same thing as FAS, it cycles through your apps as they were last used without having to first double-tap the Home Button and then choose an app.
I loved FAS - or more accurately FAS along with more (or all?) developers implementing it.
On the iPhone it was nice but it totally changed the way I used the iPad.
Most of the time though, (like 99%) I'm just jumping back to the previous app, so I don't need the full list of previous applications.
A back button would be better, or maybe a triple home tap to go back to the previous app.
The multi-touch swipes look like the best solution by far, but I'm not sure how Apple will enforce them in 3rd party apps. Maybe it will be an optional thing that we can control and can be turned off for any apps that implement similar gestures.
Another thing that does bother me is the stupid rear camera. How efficient can it be to take a picture with a device that is almost ten inches tall? It is too big to be taking pictures with! If they do add this rear facing camera it is pure competition pressure.
Screw pictures, it's got to be for augmented reality.
The augmented reality implementations have been limited so far but with a dual core CPU and a GPU 3x faster than an iPhone4 things are going to get interesting.
Maybe not quite as interesting as a pair of glasses that beam an augmented reality overlay directly on to your retina (that still might be 10 years away) but interesting never-the-less
What if they discontinued the wifi only iPad and the line up were like this?
$699 = 32GB Wifi + 3G (Cheaper than the current 32GB Wifi + 3G model)
$799 = 64GB Wifi + 3G (Cheaper than the current 64GB Wifi + 3G model)
$899 = 128GB Wifi + 3G (Only 70$ more than the most expensive iPad model)
Would you buy these iPads?
No. The point of the Wifi is to make the platform ubiquitous and NOT tied to a TELCO.
1 - BEST) Apple includes the above rumoured specs, along with a retina display, and keeps the same price. Everyone is blown away and happy. People need to realize that the ONLY thing apple can include that will really be a big upgrade and blow people away in a retina display, everything else is minor. It's not like PC's where the second new hardware is released, there are already games/programs coming out that need something better. Everything is made to run perfect on the iPad 1, and for the next year it will probably be the same. Having way better specs on the iPad 2 will really only allow it to run more advanced apps that come out in a year or two (when the iPad 1 is basically discontinued from app support). Until then the iPad 1/2 will be basically interchangeable.
2 - most likely and WORST) Apple will include the above rumoured specs, and keep the price the same. There is no real incentive to upgrade from iPad 1, and no real reason for new buys NOT to buy one. They get to say 'hey I have the NEW iPad, jealous?" and use all of the same apps as iPad 1 users.
3 - medium ground) Apple will include the above mentioned specs (big speed upgrade but as I said before, no real big changes in functionality) and drop the prices $50-100 across the board. Everyone in the know recognizes that the upgrade was minimal, like going from the iPhone 3G to 3GS, BUT it's gotten cheaper and so balances out. This will also help to get more people to buy into the iTunes ecosystem and further tighten Apples stronghold on the mobile computing world.
My vote is for #2 because, well, you know, this is Apple we're talking about.