Report details iPad 2 components, 5 million unit supply

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  • Reply 101 of 149
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    It seems as though most people are not trying to track memory prices. Both RAM and flash memory has seen pretty steady pricing over the past 18 months or so. While the most expensive parts have come down a lot in price for RAM, the lower density parts have not. Indeed, they went way up for some time.



    As far as flash goes, the price of fast, dense memory is still very expensive. You can look to fast SD and Compact Flash cards for cameras. While slow memory is pretty cheap, fast dense memory is very expensive. Look at the prices for SSD's. They came down a lot, and then stopped dropping. I bought a 60 Gb drive from OWc for $134 on sale. Reg. Price is $150. The 120 GB version is $240. The 240 GB drive is $480, and the 480 GB version is a whopping $1,580! They tell me the price of that fast dense flash is still VERY expensive.



    So what do you expect Apple to do?



    But you have to know that Apple doesn't buy the Flash at those prices. I've read that it costs them $25 for 16GB. They buy in bulk plus they are "the number one flash storage users" so they must get discounts for that.
  • Reply 102 of 149
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post


    Keeping yer brain active, I see.



    Well, my analog cranium says mid-Feb announcement for a mid-March launch. Remember this is a new product launch so the 5 million iPad2s will be the opening salvo, meaning they need to stock up massively on it. For example, if there is a mid-March launch in 10 countries, that 5 million will pretty much be gone by the end of March.



    Yeah, I don’t see much reason for Apple to jump the gun on the iPad release. I can see a March release if we assume the original iPad had some growing pains getting to market. The WiFi and WiFi+3G models were too far spread out for an Apple product, IMO, which tells me there could be something to that.



    I think if any release should have been earlier than usual it was the iPhone 4 and Apple didn’t budge, even with the Gizmodo dissecting it 2 months earlier.



    iPad in Spring (Equinox is 20-MAR-2011*)

    iPhone in Summer (Solstice is 21-JUN-2011*)

    iPods in Autumn (Equinox is 23-SEPT-2011*)

    Hold the line in Winter.

    Macs are all over the place due to Intel’s cycles.





    * Reference points, not when I think these items will be released.
  • Reply 103 of 149
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,253member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    Sigh...



    very good points, all!



    I am going to take your last paragraph and rephrase it for a specific situation:





    What would happen if Apple delayed the iPad2 until, say August 2011 (at the latest) with a a 2x ppi display and all the other goodies?



    They could announce the iPad2 any time before July and offer the iPad1 models at reduced prices.



    The developers would have more robust hardware (and iOS) to exploit and could offer for pay upgrades.



    The consumer would have the option to buy now for less or wait and pay/get more.



    If the iPad 2 did not obsolete the iPad 1 then this could benefit all.



    I wan't that 2x ppi iPad 2 and I don't want to wait until April 2012.



    That's a tough one! With all the new tablets coming out in the spring to early summer, I don't know if Apple could wait that long. I was hoping that they would release the iPad 2 a month or two early. Then that would give them a headstart, and next year, they would be a month after the holidays. But, if they released a month, or so early next year, it could be available in December some time. That wouldn't knock things out of kilter for them.



    It seemed possible, because the tablet was delayed for a month last year because of production ramp-up problems due to higher than expected demand. It was thought that Apple wouldn't have this problem this year, and so the tablet would be available in early March. It still may be! I think Apple could get away with shortening the delivery time a month or two for a couple of years to align their releases. but they may NOT want to do that. This timing may be deliberate.



    It certainly possible that the Rez of the screen will hold up for another year. Apple thinks in longer terms than most other manufacturers. There is a good article about that which I just though of. If I have the time I'll post it here. It's about Apple and Jobs's philosophy. Very interesting.



    If Apple doesn't think that this screen, abet improved, won't hurt sales to any serious degree, they will be willing to wait until the QC and price is where they need it. It's thought that some, if not most of that recent $3.9 billion they gave for machinery and tooling is for displays for iOS devices. It could be for these screens specifically. Samsung is ahem, coincidentally building a 3.4 Billion dollar factory to produce screens here, in the USA. Thoughts are that it may be for Apple. True? Maybe.
  • Reply 104 of 149
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    Sigh...



    very good points, all!



    I am going to take your last paragraph and rephrase it for a specific situation:





    What would happen if Apple delayed the iPad2 until, say, August 2011 (at the latest) with a a 2x ppi display and all the other goodies?



    They could announce the iPad2 any time before July and offer the iPad1 models at reduced prices.



    The developers would have more robust hardware (and iOS) to exploit and could offer for pay upgrades.



    The consumer would have the option to buy now for less or wait and pay/get more.



    If the iPad 2 did not obsolete the iPad 1 then this could benefit all.



    I want that 2x ppi iPad n and I don't want to wait until April 2012.







    Rather than edit, I will reply to my own question.





    It makes more sense to get the Dual-Core CPU, Dual-Core GPU and more RAM (cameras & gyroscope) iPad2 out there ASAP. That way Apple can support OpenCL and GCD (and a few new APIs rumored to be in iOS). Developers can start taking advantage of these immediately.



    Then, whenever practical (Aug-Dec), add a 2x ppi display with more RAM, SSD -- call it an iPad 2X -- these would not be disruptive to developers. The consumer that needs the added capability could buy it. It would not obsolete the iPad 2 -- rather add 2 high-end SKUs and for 2011, have a 2-model year.
  • Reply 105 of 149
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lgutie20 View Post


    But you have to know that Apple doesn't buy the Flash at those prices. I've read that it costs them $25 for 16GB. They buy in bulk plus they are "the number one flash storage users" so they must get discounts for that.



    Yeah, but they got discounts on NAND before and they are the most notable reason the prices aren’t dropping. There is little reason to give Apple better and better discounts when NAND manufactures will be able to sell all they can make regardless. In other words, you get to a point when the discount may save Apple millions but it’s a nominal discount per NAND chip or per GB that could be passed onto the customer. I’d even say there is a chance that Apple’s negotiations these days aren’t focused as much about getting cheaper NAND as they are about getting NAND productions before others.
  • Reply 106 of 149
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    The Streak Struck Out.







    I think the technical term is it "crept in, crapped, then crept out"
  • Reply 107 of 149
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,253member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lgutie20 View Post


    But you have to know that Apple doesn't buy the Flash at those prices. I've read that it costs them $25 for 16GB. They buy in bulk plus they are "the number one flash storage users" so they must get discounts for that.



    It doesn't matter. Apple is still in the basic cycle. While they lock memory up in large amounts, what happens if spot prices drop below what they've locked up? Most likely, and this is from experience, they're stuck with their pricing.



    I don't know what you've "heard" about what Apple pays, but whatever it is, it costs the customer anywhere from two to three times that price at retail. I was a manufacturer of electronics, so I've got some understanding of how this works.



    We need a new generation of flash for prices to drop significantly. While Samsung is just starting production of that new generation, whether it's advanced enough in its schedule to meet Apple's needs, I don't know. and it will take some time for that new process to drop a lot in price. A few months, anyway. Apple COULD have a deal with Samsung on overall pricing over the next year for this new memory that will bring pricing down to where they need it, but can Samsung meet the need so early? I don't have that answer, and it's a secret. Only if they have problems, or the new iPad starts at 32 GB and ends at 128 for the same price will we know.
  • Reply 108 of 149
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,253member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post






    I think the technical term is it "crept in, crapped, then crept out"



    I was trying to be cute. You're trying to be accurate.
  • Reply 109 of 149
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    That's a tough one! With all the new tablets coming out in the spring to early summer, I don't know if Apple could wait that long. I was hoping that they would release the iPad 2 a month or two early. Then that would give them a headstart, and next year, they would be a month after the holidays. But, if they released a month, or so early next year, it could be available in December some time. That wouldn't knock things out of kilter for them.



    It seemed possible, because the tablet was delayed for a month last year because of production ramp-up problems due to higher than expected demand. It was thought that Apple wouldn't have this problem this year, and so the tablet would be available in early March. It still may be! I think Apple could get away with shortening the delivery time a month or two for a couple of years to align their releases. but they may NOT want to do that. This timing may be deliberate.



    It certainly possible that the Rez of the screen will hold up for another year. Apple thinks in longer terms than most other manufacturers. There is a good article about that which I just though of. If I have the time I'll post it here. It's about Apple and Jobs's philosophy. Very interesting.



    If Apple doesn't think that this screen, abet improved, won't hurt sales to any serious degree, they will be willing to wait until the QC and price is where they need it. It's thought that some, if not most of that recent $3.9 billion they gave for machinery and tooling is for displays for iOS devices. It could be for these screens specifically. Samsung is ahem, coincidentally building a 3.4 Billion dollar factory to produce screens here, in the USA. Thoughts are that it may be for Apple. True? Maybe.



    So, Feb announce iPad 2 Dualies at current rez -- Mar delivery.



    Nov announce iPad 2X (High-end Dualies) + Retina + RAM + SSD bump -- Dec delivery)



    When can I pre-order?
  • Reply 110 of 149
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,253member
    Well guys. I just had to break this up with something completely different. This is something that Apple should have thought of! A bit out of their field, but...



    http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=cuIJRsAuCHQ
  • Reply 111 of 149
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Well guys. I just had to break this up with something completely different. This is something that Apple should have thought of! A bit out of their field, but...



    http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=cuIJRsAuCHQ



    Neat...



    How would that work with a hula-hoop?





    Edit: I wonder if there is a Dualie model?



    Best not let Woz see this -- he'll add Recaro Seats.



  • Reply 112 of 149
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Well guys. I just had to break this up with something completely different. This is something that Apple should have thought of! A bit out of their field, but...



    http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=cuIJRsAuCHQ



    Honda looked at the Segway and realized they could make personal transport even lazier. The next advancement will have the rider laying down.
  • Reply 113 of 149
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    Interesting perspective:









    http://www.businessinsider.com/chart...eat-the-ipad-3



    This is another case of the customer not knowing what they want. If price was the only issue, the cheap tablet that had come out before the iPad would have been a smashing success.
  • Reply 114 of 149
    penchantedpenchanted Posts: 1,070member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Well guys. I just had to break this up with something completely different. This is something that Apple should have thought of! A bit out of their field, but...



    http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=cuIJRsAuCHQ



    Oh great. Another way for people to get fatter.
  • Reply 115 of 149
    Another thing that does bother me is the stupid rear camera. How efficient can it be to take a picture with a device that is almost ten inches tall? It is too big to be taking pictures with! If they do add this rear facing camera it is pure competition pressure.[/QUOTE]



    It is not stupid if it is used in Face Time as shown in the ad for the Apple phone.
  • Reply 116 of 149
    penchantedpenchanted Posts: 1,070member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Charel View Post


    Another thing that does bother me is the stupid rear camera. How efficient can it be to take a picture with a device that is almost ten inches tall? It is too big to be taking pictures with! If they do add this rear facing camera it is pure competition pressure.



    It is not stupid if it is used in Face Time as shown in the ad for the Apple phone.[/QUOTE]

    This is not for photographs. It is more likely for uses like barcodes and augmented reality apps.
  • Reply 117 of 149
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Realistic View Post


    I don't understand your logic at all. The iPad and iPhone are products designed for different markets and neither truly replaces the other.



    I understand it. The data features of the iPhone and the 3G iPad overlap so much that having both doesn't make sense to many folks. And spending the added fee for the larger screened iPad isn't a bad call
  • Reply 118 of 149
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I have never found FAS to be convenient. I have pretty much every app on my home screen, expect for my 2nd page for new apps I?m still debating on keeping. I prefer the multi-touch swipes found in the 4.3 betas. It does the same thing as FAS, it cycles through your apps as they were last used without having to first double-tap the Home Button and then choose an app.



    I loved FAS - or more accurately FAS along with more (or all?) developers implementing it.



    On the iPhone it was nice but it totally changed the way I used the iPad.



    Most of the time though, (like 99%) I'm just jumping back to the previous app, so I don't need the full list of previous applications.



    A back button would be better, or maybe a triple home tap to go back to the previous app.



    The multi-touch swipes look like the best solution by far, but I'm not sure how Apple will enforce them in 3rd party apps. Maybe it will be an optional thing that we can control and can be turned off for any apps that implement similar gestures.
  • Reply 119 of 149
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lgutie20 View Post


    Another thing that does bother me is the stupid rear camera. How efficient can it be to take a picture with a device that is almost ten inches tall? It is too big to be taking pictures with! If they do add this rear facing camera it is pure competition pressure.



    Screw pictures, it's got to be for augmented reality.



    The augmented reality implementations have been limited so far but with a dual core CPU and a GPU 3x faster than an iPhone4 things are going to get interesting.



    Maybe not quite as interesting as a pair of glasses that beam an augmented reality overlay directly on to your retina (that still might be 10 years away) but interesting never-the-less
  • Reply 120 of 149
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lgutie20 View Post


    What if they discontinued the wifi only iPad and the line up were like this?



    $699 = 32GB Wifi + 3G (Cheaper than the current 32GB Wifi + 3G model)

    $799 = 64GB Wifi + 3G (Cheaper than the current 64GB Wifi + 3G model)

    $899 = 128GB Wifi + 3G (Only 70$ more than the most expensive iPad model)



    Would you buy these iPads?



    No. The point of the Wifi is to make the platform ubiquitous and NOT tied to a TELCO.
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