Apple may be prepping iPad 3 for fall 2011 launch - rumor

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  • Reply 21 of 104
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ecphorizer View Post


    I figure that the April release will be a small upgrade, say to iPad 1.5. This will keep the momentum going and help keep the product fresh in consumers' minds. The real deal will be the September release, which might be the iPad version 2.



    My own feeling is that Gruber is spot on with the theory that Apple wants to move its iPad refresh cycle to September. That way it can clear out inventory to students returning to school but have something new for the fall and Xmas shopping seasons. Having an April refresh cycle for a product like the iPad doesn't make sense to me.



    I agree except for the version numbers... the next iPad will be v. 2 but the release in the fall will be v. 2.5. I think the fall release (if there is one) would be the iPad that SJ really wants to show everyone. The v. 2 release in the next month or so is "now" a stop gap product because I think SJ saw the writing on the wall and decided something better would be necessary for the holiday quarter line-up.
  • Reply 22 of 104
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cwfrederick View Post


    it won't be the same product, it will be a "pro" product (non essential features that are very nice if you can pony up the cash, eg lighter, slimmer, new material such as liquid metal or carbon fiber) that will sell at a premium.



    I would have to say that this is unlikely. It just doen't fit Apple's pattern. Plus rarely do they care about what the other guys are doing when it comes to product or calendars.



    They dropped the Xserve because it was too premimum and wasn't selling. A premimum phone or iPad is just as bad



    If something is happening in the late summer it is likely software or service related. Like say a video subscription service.
  • Reply 23 of 104
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 2,004member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nagromme View Post


    Not so obvious to me. It?s obvious they wouldn?t call it an iPad 3, and nearly as obvious that they?d update only the top-end model(s) at first. I also think it might make sense to launch it 2 months later than September?just in time for holiday shopping.



    I'm with you here.

    My guess is that they really wanted to put the retina display out on the iPad2 but just couldn't get production up to scale. If they wait until after the pent up iPad2 rush and roll it out internationally they may be able to handle volume on a high end or "pro" model.

    I don't think very many iPad2 consumers would find this the betrayal some are FUDding on about...

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post


    Seriously? This is awesome news! I'm gonna skip the iPad 2 and go straight to 3....



    Normally I would be worried about this kind of thinking, but I think it is possible that they might still be able to sell every iPad they can make in the next 6 months regardless...

    What a crazy predicament to have product release after product release!
  • Reply 24 of 104
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


    I would have to say that this is unlikely. It just doen't fit Apple's pattern. Plus rarely do they care about what the other guys are doing when it comes to product or calendars.



    They dropped the Xserve because it was too premimum and wasn't selling. A premimum phone or iPad is just as bad



    If something is happening in the late summer it is likely software or service related. Like say a video subscription service.



    good points. i was thinking along the lines of a macbook vs macbook pro analogy, but now that i think of it it, seems as if apple is phasing out that distinction in favor of a more unified line-up, macbook air with MBP. i think i'm just eager to see apple release products at their full potential, but i guess there's no point to moving by leaps and bounds when you're so far ahead of your competition to begin with
  • Reply 25 of 104
    I can tell you right now that this is NOT happening. This would totally butcher iPad 2 sales and they are not going to ruin that.



    Maybe a new revolutionary product?



    We need PDAs with voice controls... just a thought
  • Reply 26 of 104
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by frankie View Post


    Talk about a good way to piss a lot of people off.



    I already know of people who are gonna be mad when the 2nd one comes out!





    Agreed, v2 is not even out yet, and when it does release, then a few months later v3!

    This is unlikely to happen. Just think of the iPhones. New version at each consecutive year from the previous release, not within months.
  • Reply 27 of 104
    d-ranged-range Posts: 396member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post


    Note quite the same thing being predicted here, though. Gruber said: "a new higher-end model that sits atop the iPad product family, not a replacement for the iPad 2 models."



    Introducing a new higher end model that sits on top of the existing family is very different from totally replacing the existing lineup.



    Yes, and I don't think it would be impossible they would do this either. Maybe they will go the way I've been speculating (and quietly hoping) they would go: differentiate the iPad line a little bit, offering a lower-cost version that's the iPad as we know it, and a more expensive high-end/HD iPad with a retina display. Instead of doing this straight away with iPad 2 they'd be smearing it out over 6 months. Of course this is just guesswork but to me it makes sense: keep the iPad buzz going throughout the whole of 2011, offer something the competition can't match (a tablet with retina display), without having to increase the entry-level price or cut into their own margins.



    I'm not so sure doing something similar would 'butcher iPad 2 sales' or make people feel 'screwed over' because they just bought the iPad 2: the way things are looking there will be next to no reason at all for iPad 1 owners to upgrade to iPad 2 anyway, and if the high-end 'iPad 2.5 HD' edition would be more expensive it would be targetting a different demographic.



    I'm all for it! An iPad with a retina display would be an instant buy for me, even if it were $100 more expensive than the non-HD version, and right now I'm still so happy with my iPad 1 I have no problem using it for another 9 months anyway.
  • Reply 28 of 104
    Isn't it a little soon to start talking about the iPad 3, because of you know, the lack of iPad 2?

    I can understand his theory with changing the release cycle to be competitive, but people are always releasing stuff, only Apple seems to have a reliable schedule about it. Apple isn't stupid, they know their competitors and what the competitors are capable of. I dont think Apple is shaking one bit.
  • Reply 29 of 104
    The most outrageous part of this article is that I didn't even read it. My dog was barking about something that was far more interesting.
  • Reply 30 of 104
    pokepoke Posts: 506member
    I think Gruber knows the retina display is real but not shipping in April. The rest is guesswork.
  • Reply 31 of 104
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,665member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post


    Yeah, but the problem is that the importance of the iPod is becoming relatively smaller all the time. I could imagine that the non-iOS iPod is heading towards a state of suspended animation. Heck, the Classic is already there. The form factors we see now for the non-iOS iPods could be the last form factors we'll ever see -- just evolutionary capacity upgrades from here on out. And if that's true, then using September for iPods alone wouldn't make sense.



    I bet September becomes an event focused on iOS devices that aren't the iPhone, which would include the iPod Touch, iPad, and AppleTV. I can also imagine that Apple might introduce a 7" iPod Touch (but they would call it an iPod, not an iPad).



    Yep, the decline of the iPod as a significant part of Apple's product line is a pretty important factor, as is, of course, the rise of iOS in its stead.



    It makes pretty good sense that Apple might want to move the iPad yearly refresh to the fall and combine it with the iPod Touch (which amounts to the micro-iPad), because those are the significant products that have eclipsed the old iPods.



    For those who claim this is crazy talk, does it then follow that Apple can never change the product rollout schedule they are now on, no matter how their product lineup changes? Because to do that they necessarily have to have at least one foreshortened cycle to bring things into alignment. And apparently that's impossible? Of course not. Apple can do this however they please, and bringing out a new model 6 months after the last refresh is hardly some kind of crazed betrayal of the public trust.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cwfrederick View Post


    i'm with gruber on this one. i thought they were going to do this with the first ipad. it makes sense and i hope apple does it. it won't be the same product, it will be a "pro" product (non essential features that are very nice if you can pony up the cash, eg lighter, slimmer, new material such as liquid metal or carbon fiber) that will sell at a premium. then all the apple haters can justify getting the base model and leave the pro model to the "snobby apple lovers". that said, i definitely wouldn't wait for it. it appears the the upcoming ipad will fulfill anybody's legitimate needs. i think they'll keep the spring release schedule though. with a relatively low margin product, it seems like it would make sense to have lower component prices during the holiday shopping season.



    Makes sense, particularly for a one time only shift in the schedule. They get the new hotness out there without triggering too much buyer's remorse, and then just go on the fall schedule from there on out.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    This sounds like pure BS.



    The people making these ridiculous predictions should put their money where their mouth is.



    There are international sites where people can wager on almost anything. Those people who truly believe that the iPad3 will come out in the fall would place a bet on that. And those people who believe that this is pure BS would place a bet on that outcome.



    I know which one I would put my money on.



    For heaven's sake, Gruber is making an educated guess based on some pretty sound reasoning. Doesn't mean that's going to happen, but it's not like some affront to decency that requires money be put down so that score can be kept.



    I'm not really getting the hostility. Gruber has a pretty good track record with this stuff, and is a thoughtful analyst of Apple's place in the tech world. Yes, he's generally pro-Apple, but he has real reasons and he explains what they are. From the way people are carrying on you'd think he'd just made rude noises.
  • Reply 32 of 104
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post


    Seriously? This is awesome news! I'm gonna skip the iPad 2 and go straight to 3.... Wait, Hans Gruber says his gut tells him this???? I don't trust that guy after he said we can take over Nakatomi Plaza without resistence. He totally missed the mark on that one.



    That's John... Hans did the Silent Night thing.
  • Reply 33 of 104
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    No technology company worth it's salt is going to care about pissing previous customers off because of a newer higher specced version coming out or they would never release anything. Nor does it collapse sales unless it is a confirmed release, not a rumour. There is a rumour (in fact it is more than a rumour) that there is an iPhone 5 coming out in June. Are sales collapsing? no. When will sales be harmed - when Apple offically announces the iPhone 5 - and for that reason they should announce much closer to release than they did last year.



    The mistake people here make is assuming that everybody reads tech sites. They dont care. An actual announcement is however, covered in full and on page one by non-tech papers and television news. That's when people notice. Last year Steve Jobs came onstage and joked about people recognising the iPhone. It was old news to tech heads because of Gizmodo's adventures in Pub crawling. What happened after the official announcement - sales of the iPhone 3GS collapsed ( as they later admitted in their conference call). We all knew about the iPhone 4, the rest of the world - potential iPhone buyers - did not care. The official announcement was when they took notice.



    And Apple need to up their game this year, of all years. There will be dozens of Android announcements between April 2010 and April 2011. Hardware will matter. The iPad2 may look quite dated by mid next year. A retina display, where Apple have the supply of 9.7 inch high resolution displays sown up, well that will matter. That will show the rest of them who is boss.



    Two releases this year, makes sense.
  • Reply 34 of 104
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by d-range View Post


    Yes, and I don't think it would be impossible they would do this either. Maybe they will go the way I've been speculating (and quietly hoping) they would go: differentiate the iPad line a little bit, offering a lower-cost version that's the iPad as we know it, and a more expensive high-end/HD iPad with a retina display. Instead of doing this straight away with iPad 2 they'd be smearing it out over 6 months. Of course this is just guesswork but to me it makes sense: keep the iPad buzz going throughout the whole of 2011, offer something the competition can't match (a tablet with retina display), without having to increase the entry-level price or cut into their own margins.



    I'm not so sure doing something similar would 'butcher iPad 2 sales' or make people feel 'screwed over' because they just bought the iPad 2: the way things are looking there will be next to no reason at all for iPad 1 owners to upgrade to iPad 2 anyway, and if the high-end 'iPad 2.5 HD' edition would be more expensive it would be targetting a different demographic.



    I'm all for it! An iPad with a retina display would be an instant buy for me, even if it were $100 more expensive than the non-HD version, and right now I'm still so happy with my iPad 1 I have no problem using it for another 9 months anyway.



    If it were only going to be a $100 they would already be in the iPad 2.. Would you still by it if it was $400 - $500 more?
  • Reply 35 of 104
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by d-range View Post


    Yes, and I don't think it would be impossible they would do this either. Maybe they will go the way I've been speculating (and quietly hoping) they would go: differentiate the iPad line a little bit, offering a lower-cost version that's the iPad as we know it, and a more expensive high-end/HD iPad with a retina display. Instead of doing this straight away with iPad 2 they'd be smearing it out over 6 months. Of course this is just guesswork but to me it makes sense: keep the iPad buzz going throughout the whole of 2011, offer something the competition can't match (a tablet with retina display), without having to increase the entry-level price or cut into their own margins.



    I'm not so sure doing something similar would 'butcher iPad 2 sales' or make people feel 'screwed over' because they just bought the iPad 2: the way things are looking there will be next to no reason at all for iPad 1 owners to upgrade to iPad 2 anyway, and if the high-end 'iPad 2.5 HD' edition would be more expensive it would be targetting a different demographic.



    I'm all for it! An iPad with a retina display would be an instant buy for me, even if it were $100 more expensive than the non-HD version, and right now I'm still so happy with my iPad 1 I have no problem using it for another 9 months anyway.



    If it were only going to be a $100 it would already be in the iPad 2.. Would you still by it if it was $400 - $500 more?
  • Reply 36 of 104
    Well I've been waiting to get an iPad 2 since 1 came out just like the original iPhone I waited to get the 3GS. The only way I can see them doing anything is an iPad 2.5 "mid-cycle refresh" then release the iPad 3 in early 2012.
  • Reply 37 of 104
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nagromme View Post


    The headline is wrong: there is no such ?rumor." Only an educated guess. Any ?rumors? dervied from a guess rather than sources of any kind is not headline-worthy :



    Calling it an "educated guess" is being far too charitable.
  • Reply 38 of 104
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ecphorizer View Post


    I figure that the April release will be a small upgrade, say to iPad 1.5. This will keep the momentum going and help keep the product fresh in consumers' minds. The real deal will be the September release, which might be the iPad version 2.



    My own feeling is that Gruber is spot on with the theory that Apple wants to move its iPad refresh cycle to September. That way it can clear out inventory to students returning to school but have something new for the fall and Xmas shopping seasons. Having an April refresh cycle for a product like the iPad doesn't make sense to me.



    I was really looking forward to something big in April and I have my heart set on finally getting an iPad. However, if the April release is only a 1.5 version, then I'm tempted to wait until September. I suspect that I won't be alone in this. While I'm not waiting for any single new feature (like those who won't buy one until a retina display is an option), a 1.5 upgrade just might not be enough for me.



    Of course this is all a big gamble: We don't know a thing about any plans for a September iPad 2 or iPad 3. (cue music "The Long Hot Summer" sung by Jimmie Rodgers..."...the long hot summer oh so slowly creeps along...)



    Tod...



    I thought you were more of the "Big Bat John" type.



    .
  • Reply 39 of 104
    kibitzerkibitzer Posts: 1,114member
    Whenever the next version is on the verge of coming out, there should always be strong rumors afoot about the impending development of the version to follow. That way we can enjoy all these comments from people who have plans to purchase an iPad but want to hold off until they can get a version with still more bells and whistles. It's a great way to save money because they'll never end up purchasing a tablet until years down the road - when tablets themselves inevitably become obsolete as a form factor and product by the introduction of the next great game-changer.



    Congratulations to these brave folks - those who are willing to put their courage to the test by indefinitely delaying the their personal intersections with the iPad user experience.



    My wife and I envy them, since she and I - weak souls that we are - capitulated by each getting WiFi + 3G iPads on April 30, the day they went on sale. We call on those who are heroically holding off to pity us for our lack of fortitude. It has been a trying nine months, using our iPads continuously to support and supplement our daily activities. For those of us who have already crossed the iPad Rubicon, we can envy those who have never partaken of the experience. Consider our suffering should we be deprived of our daily iPad addiction now that we have enjoyed them so very much these many months.
  • Reply 40 of 104
    If anyone could pull it off it's Apple.



    I hope the iPad 2 isn't going to have a glossy plastic back like the iPhone 3Gs...I think I did see a rumor that it may come out in a choice of two colors. If true, that would have to mean black and white.



    If they do go to a plastic back, I hope it has the "suede" finish like I've seen on some phones and laptop covers. Not sure "suede" is the right word but it has a definite softness to it.



    I never liked the bit of flat black plastic on the back of the 3G iPads. I know it's to facilitate the cell antenna, but the wifi only one looks so much cleaner.



    Oh well, knowing Apple, it'll be lighter, thinner, faster and have a few tricks we all haven't thought of! Can't wait!



    Best
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