Arrival of Apple's iPhone on Verizon predicted to disrupt 1M Android sales
With Verizon the strongest carrier for the Google Android mobile operating system, the arrival of Apple's iPhone on the largest network in America is expected to displace around a million Android handset sales in the first quarter of availability.
Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said on Thursday that Verizon typically would have sold between 4 million and 5 million Android handsets this quarter if Apple's iPhone were not available. But he sees the arrival of the iPhone taking a chunk out of Android sales on Verizon, disrupting them by about a million.
The analyst sees Apple selling about 1.5 million iPhones on Verizon in the carrier's first fiscal quarter of 2011. The iPhone, which formally launched today, will only be available for a portion of the quarter.
On AT&T, where the iPhone was exclusive in the U.S. until today, Munster sees Apple selling 2.9 million units in the March 2011 quarter, a number which assumes Verizon sales will cannibalize 740,000 sales from its rival. AT&T also has the benefit of a full quarter of iPhone sales.
The arrival of the iPhone on Verizon is a key strategic move, Munster believes, as he estimates that the carrier accounts for roughly 20 percent of total Android users worldwide.
The sales forecast from Piper Jaffray would have Android continue to outsell the iPhone on Verizon in the carrier's first quarter. Munster said that he believes Android is garnering higher unit share than the iPhone due to a wider selection of phones, greater supply, and lower pricing.
But in his eyes, unit sales aren't as important as profitability, a measurement where Apple holds a considerable lead. The iPhone's share of smartphone profits was over 50 percent of the market in 2010, while Android was responsible for less than 25 percent, split among several device manufacturers.
Looking long term, the analyst sees Android and the iPhone controlling over half of the smartphone market by the fourth quarter of calendar 2012. And by 2015, he has forecast Android and Apple to control over 65 percent of the total smartphone market.
Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said on Thursday that Verizon typically would have sold between 4 million and 5 million Android handsets this quarter if Apple's iPhone were not available. But he sees the arrival of the iPhone taking a chunk out of Android sales on Verizon, disrupting them by about a million.
The analyst sees Apple selling about 1.5 million iPhones on Verizon in the carrier's first fiscal quarter of 2011. The iPhone, which formally launched today, will only be available for a portion of the quarter.
On AT&T, where the iPhone was exclusive in the U.S. until today, Munster sees Apple selling 2.9 million units in the March 2011 quarter, a number which assumes Verizon sales will cannibalize 740,000 sales from its rival. AT&T also has the benefit of a full quarter of iPhone sales.
The arrival of the iPhone on Verizon is a key strategic move, Munster believes, as he estimates that the carrier accounts for roughly 20 percent of total Android users worldwide.
The sales forecast from Piper Jaffray would have Android continue to outsell the iPhone on Verizon in the carrier's first quarter. Munster said that he believes Android is garnering higher unit share than the iPhone due to a wider selection of phones, greater supply, and lower pricing.
But in his eyes, unit sales aren't as important as profitability, a measurement where Apple holds a considerable lead. The iPhone's share of smartphone profits was over 50 percent of the market in 2010, while Android was responsible for less than 25 percent, split among several device manufacturers.
Looking long term, the analyst sees Android and the iPhone controlling over half of the smartphone market by the fourth quarter of calendar 2012. And by 2015, he has forecast Android and Apple to control over 65 percent of the total smartphone market.
Comments
... And by 215, he has forecast Android and Apple to control over 65 percent of the total smartphone market.
Wow! You have to be good to predict the mix of phone sales over two hundred years after the cataclysim that is coming in 2012. (At least that is the only reason I can see for restarting the calendar any time soon...)
But seriously, how can you predict with any kind of precision even 3-4 years? Things are too fluid.
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...B_N.htm?csp=hf
"ILounge, a website devoted to Apple products, reminded Internet surfers about antenna problems that first surfaced for the iPhone 4 when it was released in June for AT&T's network. The antenna problem is actually "worse" with the Verizon phone, iLounge says, causing both dropped calls and dropped Wi-Fi."
Why do people keep putting a complete HW product up against an OS. Why not say "iOS for iPhone + Android for smartphones”? That is what we’re talking about and that is more clear. I qualified with iPhone and smartphones because i don’t think they are including anything else.
They are using the same Mac vs Windows analogy.
From USATODAY:
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...B_N.htm?csp=hf
"ILounge, a website devoted to Apple products, reminded Internet surfers about antenna problems that first surfaced for the iPhone 4 when it was released in June for AT&T's network. The antenna problem is actually "worse" with the Verizon phone, iLounge says, causing both dropped calls and dropped Wi-Fi."
http://techcrunch.com/2011/02/08/ver...phone-antenna/
http://www.cnn.com/2011/TECH/mobile/...ex.html?hpt=C1
From USATODAY:
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...B_N.htm?csp=hf
"ILounge, a website devoted to Apple products, reminded Internet surfers about antenna problems that first surfaced for the iPhone 4 when it was released in June for AT&T's network. The antenna problem is actually "worse" with the Verizon phone, iLounge says, causing both dropped calls and dropped Wi-Fi."
jeez! (supposing it's true) How is this kind of shit not being caught at development?
They are using the same Mac vs Windows analogy.
Or, in other words, engaging in the fallacy of hasty generalization.
cnn is reporting that there are few in lines for the launch
http://www.cnn.com/2011/TECH/mobile/...ex.html?hpt=C1
Most people are smart. Most are waiting for the iPhone 5 to come out in 4 months. Will it have HSPA+ (14.4mb)?.....CDMA (3mb)?.....LTE(concurrent voice/data for both AT&T and Verizon)? Safer to wait.
Most people are smart. Most are waiting for the iPhone 5 to come out in 4 months. Will it have HSPA+ (14.4mb)?.....CDMA (3mb)?.....LTE(concurrent voice/data for both AT&T and Verizon)? Safer to wait.
Rumor has it the iPhone 5, if it comes in June, will not be LTE for the simple fact that the LTE network is in its infant stages. Why introduce a phone with LTE tech if hardly anyone can use it?
Second, I also hear that a phone will have a hard time switching from LTE to 3G back to LTE without some sort of service interuption.
With LTE no where near where I live, there is no reason for me to get an LTE iPhone. I just got the iPhone for Verizon and I feel like a kid on Christmas. It's an awesome phone and IF the iPhone 5 does debut in June, it does not change the fact that the iPhone 4 is still a remarkable device.
jeez! (supposing it's true) How is this kind of shit not being caught at development?
How about you put your phone between your thighs and then complain you can't get reception?
These tests about signal drop are absurd.
Verizon iPhone sales will be by the high end of the Android customer base. The rest will be happy with... well an Android phone.
Verizon now has a 3-tiered phone lineup, with iPhone at the top. Naturally.
From USATODAY:
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...B_N.htm?csp=hf
"ILounge, a website devoted to Apple products, reminded Internet surfers about antenna problems that first surfaced for the iPhone 4 when it was released in June for AT&T's network. The antenna problem is actually "worse" with the Verizon phone, iLounge says, causing both dropped calls and dropped Wi-Fi."
Sounds like iLounge needs to improve their web traffic. Maybe if AOL bought them it would help. Just ask the Engadget guys.
Consumer reports, who famously did not recommend the AT&T version of iPhone 4, have lavished praise on the Verizon iPhone 4. (And I don't want to hear any talk of payola either here, folks.)
http://blogs.consumerreports.org/ele...y-reviews.html
How about you put your phone between your thighs and then complain you can't get reception?
These tests about signal drop are absurd.
What? Phone between my thighs? What the hell are you talking about?