how do you guys decide it's time to wait for the new phone? <6 months away?
Well for me, there was not a chance of switching to Cingular back on June 29, 2007. No mobile service where I live and from what I was hearing from my friends in D.C. and NYC they couldn't wait to switch back to Verizon. So for me, living in BFE, Wyoming, it only seemed reasonable to wait an extra 3-4 months for the new iphone, after waiting this long. My upgrade date was pre-christmas and I honestly will wait to see what the new technology brings.
as much as I like Apple, I hope this serves as a wake up call that despite all of their research for this potential market, they shouldn't think they are a stronger player than they are.
as much as I don't know you, I hope this serves as a wake up call that despite all of what you might think of yourself, you shouldn't think that you had anything of substance to say.
Having tried an iPhone 3G on AT&T and after waiting for several years, I was more than happy to buy an iPhone 4 on Verizon. If something exceptional comes from Apple mid summer and it probably will, I'll decide what to do at that time. I sold a Droid X to pay for my new iPhone 4. I can always sell my iPhone 4 and buy the new one if need be.
It just means that people are waiting out their contracts. It will be interesting to see - do cell contracts end on the last day of the month or randomly? If the last day that will provide a predictable influx to Verizon monthly.
Perhaps those Marketer's and Accountants failed to factor in that the iphone4 is in mid cycle and an iphone5 is in the pipeline for a June or July release. Also, standing in line in June is quite different than early February unless you only count those in southern California. With heavy snow and blizzard conditions, I doubt that even the biggest fanboy braved an overnight line unless Mr. Jobs was personally handing out hot chocolate.
I was amused to see the stanchions going up at the local Apple Stores. I asked one of the managers, "so given all the obstacles in the way of a huge uptake of these by Verizon customers - do you really think this will be as big as a regular release?" He responded in the negative, but they wanted (at his store anyway) to be prepared to handle any large numbers who might come in to purchase. Release day they were very busy there when I went by, but nothing like a regular release.
So consider the following points:
>This is a mid-stream carrier release of the iPhone 4 which was introduced seven months ago, not a regular release
>Most people who have wanted iPhones (and continue to do so) have gotten an interim solution, most likely an Android-based model and therefore are locked into a contract with a juicy early release penalty (reduced or no subsidy for the iPhone).
>The new and improved iPhone (5?) is a scant 12 or so weeks away for those who are month to month in anticipation of the move to Verizon
>Migratory ATT users thinking of moving(back?) to Verizon have gotten used to full data/voice use on ATT, the current 3G model may be less desireable.
>Apple has not made a huge deal out of this advertising-wise, no Jobsian fanfare, no special Apple newsflash - they modified/added a Verizon too ad, but that was about it.
>ATT has that pricey anti-migratory early termination fee as well.
>Android is filling out the cheap/lowend semi-smartphone (idiot-savantphone?) transition out of the feature phone segment for those who want to try-out smartphoning before committing to the higher-end true smartphones
Those points alone would give pause to an observer waiting to see the reaction. As it is the release wasn't bad, the best pre-order response Verizon had seen ever - which is pretty solid performance. Anecdotally a handful of my friends who were not contract-bound immediately purchased theirs retiring Blackberries and Androids among them. The rest seem to be poised to act when the contract limitation allows them to do so.
All in all, as good a response as anyone could have reasonably expected, and better than several competing technologies for their releases.
OMG relaunching the same phone 7 months later with the expectation that it will be obsolete in five months an it is selling a little below expectations??? Apple is DOOMED
as much as I don't know you, I hope this serves as a wake up call that despite all of what you might think of yourself, you shouldn't think that you had anything of substance to say.
well then let me elaborate:
-Apple had expectations that they would be a certain number of handsets sold at launch
-expectations would be based on the current generation device and what they perceive as the market demand for it
-this article theorizes that initial sales numbers did not meet those expectations or those of Verizon either
-if the article is in fact true, then it means that what Apple thinks about itself and its products doesn't actually represent where customers are willing to put their money
from that, I'm trying to say:
-Apple should bring their A game to all product releases and stop holding back features. They'll have to work harder to win over the customer whether because of competition, or because their product cycle timelines are becoming more predictable
-Apple does have a lot of sway. But I think they should realize that they shouldn't always use their influence especially when the outcomes don't always meet their expectations. This refers to the tough line they stood on the Verizon deal for years, the current subscription policy, cost of songs on iTunes, Flash (maaaybe not =p)
Unlike ATT last summer, Verizon barely budged in moving people's upgrade dates. There's millions of people who are under contract, literally just since the holiday season when they picked up Droids. Only few diehards would ever consider dropping $600 for a phone.
If they wanted to sell more iphones they should have made it easier for those who didn't want those Droids anymore to get out of their contracts but they did no such thing. As a result....you have less sales.
According to the "Carrier Clash" website http://labs.chitika.com/iZone/ at 1:10PM EST, 4.7% of U.S. iPhones are now Verizon phones. Not bad at all, if the numbers are accurate, and probably more reliable than a rumor from BGR.
Buy 8 month old phone now or buy newly released phone in 4 months!
There's certainly no guarantee that Verizon will have the iPhone5 in 4 months. I personally believe it won't. Either way, plenty of people buy iPhones throughout the 12 month period until about the last 4 weeks when sales drop off as stocks drop. Consumers don't care about unannounced products. Nerds who spend a lot of time on message boards like to think that a product they "know" will be announced in 4 months weighs heavily on consumers' minds, but it doesn't.
I seriously doubt Apple expected people to turn out in February for a 7 month old phone that is soon the be updated the same way the would in July for a brand new phone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OriginalG
I think the point is that if Apple expected a massive amount of buyers (maybe not as much as an initial launch, but still a large number), then they failed. Hopefully this means they don't have an excess of inventory built up if weak sales are true
OMG relaunching the same phone 7 months later with the expectation that it will be obsolete in five months an it is selling a little below expectations??? Apple is DOOMED
While that is without a doubt a factor I also think its a case that people are not just going to cancel their contracts pay an ETF and then have to go out and buy another phone. While people may want an iPhone on Verizon they are going to wait until their contract either ends or is close to ending.
Comments
how do you guys decide it's time to wait for the new phone? <6 months away?
Well for me, there was not a chance of switching to Cingular back on June 29, 2007. No mobile service where I live and from what I was hearing from my friends in D.C. and NYC they couldn't wait to switch back to Verizon. So for me, living in BFE, Wyoming, it only seemed reasonable to wait an extra 3-4 months for the new iphone, after waiting this long. My upgrade date was pre-christmas and I honestly will wait to see what the new technology brings.
Apple claimed they released the CDMA iPhone 4 because Verizon customers demanded it now and couldn't wait for the iPhone 5.
Looks like they were wrong.
Thinking this is a marathon rather then a sprint.
as much as I like Apple, I hope this serves as a wake up call that despite all of their research for this potential market, they shouldn't think they are a stronger player than they are.
as much as I don't know you, I hope this serves as a wake up call that despite all of what you might think of yourself, you shouldn't think that you had anything of substance to say.
how do you guys decide it's time to wait for the new phone? <6 months away?
once i decide it's time to upgrade my apple hardware, i hold out until the next refresh of what i'm planning on buying.
there's another apple rumor site that has a really nice list of apple hardware, launch dates, etc.
http://guides.macrumors.com/Buyer%27s_Guide
i prefer the articles on AppleInsider, but i always point my friends considering buying apple hardware to the link above.
Fantastic.
Overnight, they are selling twice as many phones with verizon and att combined than they were selling with att alone.
Major win for apple.
So consider the following points:
>This is a mid-stream carrier release of the iPhone 4 which was introduced seven months ago, not a regular release
>Most people who have wanted iPhones (and continue to do so) have gotten an interim solution, most likely an Android-based model and therefore are locked into a contract with a juicy early release penalty (reduced or no subsidy for the iPhone).
>The new and improved iPhone (5?) is a scant 12 or so weeks away for those who are month to month in anticipation of the move to Verizon
>Migratory ATT users thinking of moving(back?) to Verizon have gotten used to full data/voice use on ATT, the current 3G model may be less desireable.
>Apple has not made a huge deal out of this advertising-wise, no Jobsian fanfare, no special Apple newsflash - they modified/added a Verizon too ad, but that was about it.
>ATT has that pricey anti-migratory early termination fee as well.
>Android is filling out the cheap/lowend semi-smartphone (idiot-savantphone?) transition out of the feature phone segment for those who want to try-out smartphoning before committing to the higher-end true smartphones
Those points alone would give pause to an observer waiting to see the reaction. As it is the release wasn't bad, the best pre-order response Verizon had seen ever - which is pretty solid performance. Anecdotally a handful of my friends who were not contract-bound immediately purchased theirs retiring Blackberries and Androids among them. The rest seem to be poised to act when the contract limitation allows them to do so.
All in all, as good a response as anyone could have reasonably expected, and better than several competing technologies for their releases.
as much as I don't know you, I hope this serves as a wake up call that despite all of what you might think of yourself, you shouldn't think that you had anything of substance to say.
well then let me elaborate:
-Apple had expectations that they would be a certain number of handsets sold at launch
-expectations would be based on the current generation device and what they perceive as the market demand for it
-this article theorizes that initial sales numbers did not meet those expectations or those of Verizon either
-if the article is in fact true, then it means that what Apple thinks about itself and its products doesn't actually represent where customers are willing to put their money
from that, I'm trying to say:
-Apple should bring their A game to all product releases and stop holding back features. They'll have to work harder to win over the customer whether because of competition, or because their product cycle timelines are becoming more predictable
-Apple does have a lot of sway. But I think they should realize that they shouldn't always use their influence especially when the outcomes don't always meet their expectations. This refers to the tough line they stood on the Verizon deal for years, the current subscription policy, cost of songs on iTunes, Flash (maaaybe not =p)
Apple claimed they released the CDMA iPhone 4 because Verizon customers demanded it now and couldn't wait for the iPhone 5.
Looks like they were wrong.
As usual everybody spins this to agree with their personal bias for or against Apple and the iPhone. Wall Street doesn't seem to be bothered though.
If they wanted to sell more iphones they should have made it easier for those who didn't want those Droids anymore to get out of their contracts but they did no such thing. As a result....you have less sales.
Buy 8 month old phone now or buy newly released phone in 4 months!
There's certainly no guarantee that Verizon will have the iPhone5 in 4 months. I personally believe it won't. Either way, plenty of people buy iPhones throughout the 12 month period until about the last 4 weeks when sales drop off as stocks drop. Consumers don't care about unannounced products. Nerds who spend a lot of time on message boards like to think that a product they "know" will be announced in 4 months weighs heavily on consumers' minds, but it doesn't.
I think the point is that if Apple expected a massive amount of buyers (maybe not as much as an initial launch, but still a large number), then they failed. Hopefully this means they don't have an excess of inventory built up if weak sales are true
OMG relaunching the same phone 7 months later with the expectation that it will be obsolete in five months an it is selling a little below expectations??? Apple is DOOMED
While that is without a doubt a factor I also think its a case that people are not just going to cancel their contracts pay an ETF and then have to go out and buy another phone. While people may want an iPhone on Verizon they are going to wait until their contract either ends or is close to ending.