Iran's Next Revolution
Michael Ledeen seems to be the only person in the U.S. press writing about Iran these days. This was in the WSJ last week.
June 5, 2002
COMMENTARY
<a href="http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110001818"; target="_blank">Iran's Next Revolution</a>
By MICHAEL A. LEDEEN
[quote]Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Iranian Islamic Republic and the central figure in the creation of modern Islamic terrorism, died in 1989 on the 13th day of Khordad, the third month of the Iranian calendar. Thirteen being a famously unlucky number, the Iranians celebrate Khomeini's death on the lucky 14th of Khordad, which was yesterday. In honor of the great man, amid the obligatory chants of "Death to America! Death to Israel!" 167 top leaders of 25 terrorist organizations gathered in Tehran for a conference on "Support for the Intifada." They included the usual suspects, among them seven representatives from al Qaeda, whose leader, Osama bin Laden, has been reported by local newspapers to be living in a remote region of Iran itself.
The terror summit comes at a time of considerable internal agitation and intense Iranian support for terrorist activities against the U.S., Britain and Israel. The country's internal problems catalyze its external violence. Just two weeks ago, Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini, deputy leader of the Council of Experts - perhaps the most powerful institution in Iran - publicly warned that the country was on the verge of insurrection. Life is so bad for the Iranian people that many have begun fleeing the country. In recent days 10 Iranians were found by Turkish authorities in the city of Van. Three were dead of malnutrition and the others were in desperate physical condition.
People Power
The Iranian people's mounting desperation and disgust with the regime is driving them to take more and more overt action against the mullahs. A week ago, a group of armed young people in the city of Lamerd in Fars Province attacked the Revolutionary Guards' headquarters, badly damaging the building. Troops had to be called in to put down the uprising, the latest of many in the last year...<hr></blockquote>
[ 06-11-2002: Message edited by: spaceman_spiff ]</p>
June 5, 2002
COMMENTARY
<a href="http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110001818"; target="_blank">Iran's Next Revolution</a>
By MICHAEL A. LEDEEN
[quote]Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Iranian Islamic Republic and the central figure in the creation of modern Islamic terrorism, died in 1989 on the 13th day of Khordad, the third month of the Iranian calendar. Thirteen being a famously unlucky number, the Iranians celebrate Khomeini's death on the lucky 14th of Khordad, which was yesterday. In honor of the great man, amid the obligatory chants of "Death to America! Death to Israel!" 167 top leaders of 25 terrorist organizations gathered in Tehran for a conference on "Support for the Intifada." They included the usual suspects, among them seven representatives from al Qaeda, whose leader, Osama bin Laden, has been reported by local newspapers to be living in a remote region of Iran itself.
The terror summit comes at a time of considerable internal agitation and intense Iranian support for terrorist activities against the U.S., Britain and Israel. The country's internal problems catalyze its external violence. Just two weeks ago, Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini, deputy leader of the Council of Experts - perhaps the most powerful institution in Iran - publicly warned that the country was on the verge of insurrection. Life is so bad for the Iranian people that many have begun fleeing the country. In recent days 10 Iranians were found by Turkish authorities in the city of Van. Three were dead of malnutrition and the others were in desperate physical condition.
People Power
The Iranian people's mounting desperation and disgust with the regime is driving them to take more and more overt action against the mullahs. A week ago, a group of armed young people in the city of Lamerd in Fars Province attacked the Revolutionary Guards' headquarters, badly damaging the building. Troops had to be called in to put down the uprising, the latest of many in the last year...<hr></blockquote>
[ 06-11-2002: Message edited by: spaceman_spiff ]</p>
Comments
The governement of Iran is not an exception to this rule.
<strong>all corupt and bad governements collapse one day or another.
The governement of Iran is not an exception to this rule.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Yes, they do but sometimes they go on for decades or longer (dynasties). Iran seems to be 'polarized' between progressive and religious conservative (via edict) with the latter firmly in trenched.
[ 06-11-2002: Message edited by: eat@me ]</p>
I think a more important point is to try to deal withthe corrupt government before they cause too much damage to those around them. I would be very happy if this current regime were to collapse tomorrow and be replaced by a more progressive regime. But what is more likely is that the regime collapses and gets replaced by another like it or worse (If that is possible.) Especially when you have Islam at its base.
there are hundreds of registered political parties. About 40 powerful ones.
The country is democratic.
The only way for a party to gain enough power to win an election is to join forces with 2 or 3 others.
They win.
The power strucutre of the country is thrown out and completely remodeled.
The winners start bickering.
The whole thing falls apart.
There's anothe vote.
mika.
[ 06-11-2002: Message edited by: PC^KILLA ]</p>
As someone important once said, "The poison is in the dose."
Vitamin D will kill you just as surely as arsenic. In fact, I dunno the numbers, but by weight it may actually be more toxic. The multivitamin tablets contain maybe 1/20 of a lethal dose.
The only problem with italy's system is that there's too many names.
Each American party has multiple factions within it, but they're all willing to call eachother Republicans. Most don't approve of abortion, some do. Some approve of a strong military, some don't. The thing is, the party ITSELF evolves, not the system. The people respond to the changing of society by changing the character of the party they represent, rather than making a new party to trumpet fron.
The danger in the back of everyone's head with regard to the highly atomized political scene in countries like Italy is that the old Weimar Republic of Germany had this problem, and Hitler used the situation to his advantage.
Italy is like the US in that no amount of government turmoil will really stop everyday life over there. The system works well enough that life will go on. But where in the US the greater ideas of republican rule and human rights maintains a peaceful transition of power in pretty much any event, in Italy it's more pragmatic. There's a certain sense that ultimately, governments are a dime-a-dozen. So they love their politics and get very involved, but they don't get too phased by the spectacle. It's more sport than anything else.
<strong>Powerdoc,
I think a more important point is to try to deal withthe corrupt government before they cause too much damage to those around them. I would be very happy if this current regime were to collapse tomorrow and be replaced by a more progressive regime. But what is more likely is that the regime collapses and gets replaced by another like it or worse (If that is possible.) Especially when you have Islam at its base.
You are right, what i wanted to say in that post, is that they where doomed, and when you are doomed nothing good occurs. And i won't teach you, that the best way to escape the damnation is the ... redemption
More practicaly, you are right (and eat@me too) to say that the sunlight will not occur automaticaly after the (long?) collapse of this dark governement.
<strong>
More practicaly, you are right (and eat@me too) to say that the sunlight will not occur automaticaly after the (long?) collapse of this dark governement.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Which is the point of Mr. Ledeen's report. We need a strategy for toppling the Ayatollahs. It won't require the same resources that Afghanistan needed or what Iraq will require, for that matter. But it does need planning.