Gartner sees Apple's iPad dominating tablet market through 2015
Research firm Gartner sees Apple's iPad controlling the lion's share of the tablet market for the next three years, and remaining the top mobile platform in terms of sales through at least 2015.
Gartner announced its predictions on Monday, in which it said it believes Apple's iOS will control 68.7 percent of tablet sales in 2011. That would be down from the firm's estimate of 83.9 percent share in 2010, but still gives Apple a commanding lead over its competitors.
Next year, Gartner sees Apple's iPad representing 63.5 percent of tablet sales, while the entirety of the Google Android platform, bolstered by its appearance on multiple devices, is expected to grow to 24.4 percent. And in 2015, Gartner sees Apple's share of sales dipping below 50 percent to 47.1 percent, while tablets running Google Android are projected to grow to 38.6 percent of devices.
Gartner said that the iPad has done to the tablet market what the iPhone did to the smartphone market: re-invent it. With the iPad, Apple has a rich ecosystem of content that will serve as a strong pull for consumers in the years to come.
"Seeing the response from both consumers and enterprises to the iPad, many vendors are trying to compete by first delivering on hardware and then trying to leverage the platform ecosystem," said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner. "Many, however, are making the same mistake that was made in the first response wave to the iPhone, as they are prioritizing hardware features over applications, services and overall user experience.
"Tablets will be much more dependent on the latter than smartphones have been, and the sooner vendors realize that the better chance they have to compete head-to-head with Apple."
Gartner sees Google's decision to not leave Android 3.0 Honeycomb truly open source will prevent fragmentation of the platform, but it will also slow the price decline and ultimately cap market share.
"Volume will be driven by support from many players, the ecosystem of applications for tablets getting more competitive and some platform flexibility allowing lower price points,? said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner. "The new licensing model Google has introduced with Honeycomb enables Google to drive more control, allowing only optimal tablet implementations that don?t compromise quality of experience. This might mean that prices will drop at a slower pace than what we have seen in the smartphone market."
Gartner defines a "media tablet" as a device with a touchscreen display used primarily for consuming media. Devices must have a screen size greater than 5 inches, and can be up to roughly 15 inches in size. Media tablets also run a lightweight operating system, as opposed to a full-featured OS like Windows.
The firm sees Research in Motion's QNX platform making a splash once it is available on the company's phones, in addition to the PlayBook tablet, starting in 2012. Having QNX on all of its devices will allow RIM to offer a consistent experience across its whole product portfolio and create a single developer community.
And Gartner analysts see other platforms like MeeGo and WebOS having limited appeal unless they can also grow in the smartphone business. Currently, MeeGo and WebOS do not have a major presence in the smartphone market.
"Smartphone users will want to buy a tablet that runs the same operating system as their smartphone. This is so that they can share applications across devices as well as for the sense of familiarity the user interfaces will bring," Milanesi said. "Vendors developing on Android should be prepared to see more cross brand ownership as some users might put OS over brand when it comes to the purchasing decision. Improvements on usability and brand recognition are the strongest differentiators they can focus on."
Gartner's tablet market share predictions come just days after the firm issued its projections for smartphone mobile operating system share, also through 2015. It predicted that Google Android would be on 49 percent of smartphones sold by 2012, but also prompted questions about the firm's "radically revised" forecast since 2009.
In March, Gartner lowered its forecast for PC sales in 2011 and 2012, citing the iPad as a device that will weaken demand for traditional computers. The firm believes that "media tablets" like the iPad are "redefining" the PC's place in consumers' lives.
Gartner announced its predictions on Monday, in which it said it believes Apple's iOS will control 68.7 percent of tablet sales in 2011. That would be down from the firm's estimate of 83.9 percent share in 2010, but still gives Apple a commanding lead over its competitors.
Next year, Gartner sees Apple's iPad representing 63.5 percent of tablet sales, while the entirety of the Google Android platform, bolstered by its appearance on multiple devices, is expected to grow to 24.4 percent. And in 2015, Gartner sees Apple's share of sales dipping below 50 percent to 47.1 percent, while tablets running Google Android are projected to grow to 38.6 percent of devices.
Gartner said that the iPad has done to the tablet market what the iPhone did to the smartphone market: re-invent it. With the iPad, Apple has a rich ecosystem of content that will serve as a strong pull for consumers in the years to come.
"Seeing the response from both consumers and enterprises to the iPad, many vendors are trying to compete by first delivering on hardware and then trying to leverage the platform ecosystem," said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner. "Many, however, are making the same mistake that was made in the first response wave to the iPhone, as they are prioritizing hardware features over applications, services and overall user experience.
"Tablets will be much more dependent on the latter than smartphones have been, and the sooner vendors realize that the better chance they have to compete head-to-head with Apple."
Gartner sees Google's decision to not leave Android 3.0 Honeycomb truly open source will prevent fragmentation of the platform, but it will also slow the price decline and ultimately cap market share.
"Volume will be driven by support from many players, the ecosystem of applications for tablets getting more competitive and some platform flexibility allowing lower price points,? said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner. "The new licensing model Google has introduced with Honeycomb enables Google to drive more control, allowing only optimal tablet implementations that don?t compromise quality of experience. This might mean that prices will drop at a slower pace than what we have seen in the smartphone market."
Gartner defines a "media tablet" as a device with a touchscreen display used primarily for consuming media. Devices must have a screen size greater than 5 inches, and can be up to roughly 15 inches in size. Media tablets also run a lightweight operating system, as opposed to a full-featured OS like Windows.
The firm sees Research in Motion's QNX platform making a splash once it is available on the company's phones, in addition to the PlayBook tablet, starting in 2012. Having QNX on all of its devices will allow RIM to offer a consistent experience across its whole product portfolio and create a single developer community.
And Gartner analysts see other platforms like MeeGo and WebOS having limited appeal unless they can also grow in the smartphone business. Currently, MeeGo and WebOS do not have a major presence in the smartphone market.
"Smartphone users will want to buy a tablet that runs the same operating system as their smartphone. This is so that they can share applications across devices as well as for the sense of familiarity the user interfaces will bring," Milanesi said. "Vendors developing on Android should be prepared to see more cross brand ownership as some users might put OS over brand when it comes to the purchasing decision. Improvements on usability and brand recognition are the strongest differentiators they can focus on."
Gartner's tablet market share predictions come just days after the firm issued its projections for smartphone mobile operating system share, also through 2015. It predicted that Google Android would be on 49 percent of smartphones sold by 2012, but also prompted questions about the firm's "radically revised" forecast since 2009.
In March, Gartner lowered its forecast for PC sales in 2011 and 2012, citing the iPad as a device that will weaken demand for traditional computers. The firm believes that "media tablets" like the iPad are "redefining" the PC's place in consumers' lives.
Comments
Didn't we just go thru one of these "Gartner prediction" threads? So this one is just as reliable an indicator as the last one, correct?
Didn't we just go thru one of these "Gartner prediction" threads? So this one is just as reliable an indicator as the last one, correct?
So given their accuracy thus far we can safely assume iPad will dominate through 2050.
They are dead wrong to conclude the iPad is just a Media Tablet (their definition). While copy cats may well that, the iPad is far from being limited to consumption of data.
So given their accuracy thus far we can safely assume iPad will dominate through
No no - in 2016 iOS will have 13% of the tablet market. MS will have 45% and the rest will go to Android.
Hopefully Apple Insider will make a post about how these are also wrong.
No, no. Gartners predictions are only wrong when they have Apple losing market share.
So if you JUST did an article about how Gartner's predictions should be trusted because of how much they vary, why are you posting their predictions for tablets?
You can't call a analyst untrustworthy and then turn around and agree with their analysis when it suddenly agrees with what you think will happen.
Either you accept all their predictions (you can still disagree if you want, you just can't dismiss them). or you dismiss all of them.
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...nd_a_half.html
You can't call a analyst untrustworthy and then turn around and agree with their analysis when it suddenly agrees with what you think will happen.
Too true.
But in AI defense, I don't think they're agreeing to anything in this article. I just see it as prove to show how confused people working at Gartner are.
And I am greatly comforted to know that Apple will sell 138 497 000 iPads in 2015. If they would only sell 138 496 000 iPads, they would have been in great trouble.
Seriously, anybody predicting things with more than two digits of accuracy is just blowing steam.
Too true.
But in AI defense, I don't think they're agreeing to anything in this article. I just see it as prove to show how confused people working at Gartner are.
If they were trying to prove that, they would link back to other articles.
No, what they're doing here is taking advantage of the fact that most people have the memory of goldfish (yes, I know the 3 second thing is a myth soph) and will just read this article by itself, without remembering history.
If this prediction showed Apple anywhere but first place, you can be sure that DED or one of the other writers would pen a screed that would show how pointless Gartner is again. But since it shows Apple in a positive light, they're content to just repost it and let people believe it.
So of course they're agreeing with it. Well, maybe the author isn't because they know better, but they want you (and I) and other readers to agree with it. Since it paints a positive picture they're fine with spreading it. Until the next time Gartner puts another OS ahead and suddenly they're not trustworthy again.
So much about these predictions I disagree with. This looks even more outrageous than their smartphone predictions.
Exactly.
My iPhone 4 doesn't charge, it says 6% battery but once I plug it in, the plug shows in thebattery symbol and it doesn't charge.
Anyone have any ideas?
So given their accuracy thus far we can safely assume iPad will dominate through 2050.
They are dead wrong to conclude the iPad is just a Media Tablet (their definition). While copy cats may well that, the iPad is far from being limited to consumption of data.
The iPad will morph into a laptop replacement for many less demanding folk. Obviously each new version will be more powerful and software will develop alongside the hardware.
Netbooks are all but finished and laptops are already losing market share to devices like the iPad. Apple let the other PC makers bumble around with that whole ill-conceived netbook initiative and now have stepped up to show how it should be done. If competitors falls way behind, they have themselves to blame
Seriously, anybody predicting things with more than two digits of accuracy is just blowing steam.
More often than not, for that far ahead and for these types of technologies, anything much more than 'well' or 'so-so' or 'poorly' is just blowing steam.
My prediction: The iPad will do very well.
Who predicted Nokia giving up the lead in market share so quickly? Who here predicted any successful competition from Android in smartphones? Before they went on sale, how many of us predicted 20 million iPads sold already? And how many have already written off Android and WM7 as potential challengers for the iPad before they've even started? Things are way more fluid than most of us can imagine.
And I predict water will run downhill!
And you would be wrong in some cases.
http://www.livescience.com/688-scien...un-uphill.html