Supplier indicates Apple will begin iPhone 5 production in Sept. - report
Lending even more support to rumors of a later-than-usual launch for the fifth-generation iPhone, a new report cites a key component supplier as saying Apple doesn't plan to begin production of the iPhone 5 until September.
Avian Securities issued a note to investors on Monday in which it revealed the alleged plans for a September production start. The report said the latest information is "consistent" with other findings the organization has heard in recent months.
The information also supports a report from March, which claimed that Apple is not yet aligning part suppliers for the iPhone 5. That overseas report claimed that the fifth-generation iPhone wouldn't debut until Apple's 2012 fiscal year, which begins in late September.
In addition, Avian also claimed in its note that it has heard that Apple has a lower-priced iPhone with less expensive internal components in the company's roadmap. However, the handset is currently a "placeholder," and specific components and production timing remain unknown.
If Apple does in fact introduce a low-cost handset with limited features, Avian said it does not see the product being introduced until very late in 2011, or more likely in 2012.
Rumors have continued to swirl that Apple plans to introduce a contract-free iPhone, particularly to increase sales in prepaid handset markets like China. Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook said in an interview earlier this year that his company is planning "clever things" to compete in prepaid markets.
In February, both Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal reported that Apple is working on a smaller and cheaper iPhone that it could sell contract-free. But those reports were followed up by The New York Times, which claimed that Apple is in fact not working on a smaller iPhone. However, it did state that Apple has explored opportunities in developing a cheaper handset.
Avian Securities issued a note to investors on Monday in which it revealed the alleged plans for a September production start. The report said the latest information is "consistent" with other findings the organization has heard in recent months.
The information also supports a report from March, which claimed that Apple is not yet aligning part suppliers for the iPhone 5. That overseas report claimed that the fifth-generation iPhone wouldn't debut until Apple's 2012 fiscal year, which begins in late September.
In addition, Avian also claimed in its note that it has heard that Apple has a lower-priced iPhone with less expensive internal components in the company's roadmap. However, the handset is currently a "placeholder," and specific components and production timing remain unknown.
If Apple does in fact introduce a low-cost handset with limited features, Avian said it does not see the product being introduced until very late in 2011, or more likely in 2012.
Rumors have continued to swirl that Apple plans to introduce a contract-free iPhone, particularly to increase sales in prepaid handset markets like China. Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook said in an interview earlier this year that his company is planning "clever things" to compete in prepaid markets.
In February, both Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal reported that Apple is working on a smaller and cheaper iPhone that it could sell contract-free. But those reports were followed up by The New York Times, which claimed that Apple is in fact not working on a smaller iPhone. However, it did state that Apple has explored opportunities in developing a cheaper handset.
Comments
I can't see Apple making a smaller (read to be "cheaper") phone because at the sizes we're already at, it would probably cost as much or more to make than it does now. So, the probability that they might cut some features (cameras, audio out port etc) to get at a less expensive device might be what they are looking into. The only sure thing is that because Tim Cook expressly discussed getting into the prepaid arena, you can bank that Apple will do it.
I reckon we'll have to wait and see what Apple comes up with.
Some how I just don't buy that Apple will put out a no contract iphone. It just does not make sense unless they plan on putting out a non contract iphone 3g. But why would they waste their time and money developing a subpar phone?
Does anyone else have thoughts on how this could be cost effective for Apple here in the US?
I doubt they'll sell it in the US. There are many markets where prepaid phones dominate. Not just developing countries but in some European countries prepaid phones are more popular than contracts. Apple needs to a lower cost phone to compete in those markets. In the US the prepaid market is much smaller so it's not a priority.
Some how I just don't buy that Apple will put out a no contract iphone. It just does not make sense unless they plan on putting out a non contract iphone 3g. But why would they waste their time and money developing a subpar phone?
Does anyone else have thoughts on how this could be cost effective for Apple here in the US?
If they include the integrated CDMA/GSM chips in the iP5 that let's them have one phone that will work on both Verizon and AT&T networks, I could very well see them doing that. There has been discussion in the past with Apple looking into allowing the user to essentially let the telcos compete for their business by allowing them to pick a plan directly from their phone.
I see this happening eventually.
I always thought we wouldn't see the next iPhone until next year anyway. I see the LTE version coming next year if the networks are ready!
I think if we don?t get a new iPhone this Summer that the odds will start looking good the next iPhone will be LTE compatible.
Will Apple still release iOS 5.0 this Summer as usual? I sure hope so. Will they fork the iPhone platform to offer a 3.5? and 4.x? model? I sure hope so.
Apple has patience, which has often served them very well. If I'm putting money on an iOS device, do I want Apple to get it done right, or done by this summer?
If they include the integrated CDMA/GSM chips in the iP5 that let's them have one phone that will work on both Verizon and AT&T networks, I could very well see them doing that. There has been discussion in the past with Apple looking into allowing the user to essentially let the telcos compete for their business by allowing them to pick a plan directly from their phone.
I see this happening eventually.
They have the Gobi chip in the Verizon iPhone 4, sans the needed radios. But I can?t see that happening unless they can make the chip considerably more efficient.
And with the A5 being slightly bigger than the A4, the additional chips for radios, adding back the SIM card slot, and then adding LTE on top of that, not to mention antennas, it seems hard to think Apple has the ability to make that leap in the next model. But maybe that?s why they?d delay the release by several months.
I want them to get it done right in time for this summer.
Guess I'm just kind of anxious for a new iPhone. My 3GS is starting to show it's age, and this one was swapped out by Apple maybe 6 months or so ago when the external volume increase button stopped working. I really don't want to get an iPhone 4 and be locked into 2 years before I can upgrade, but...
Oh well. I guess we'll all find out in another couple months.
1. In many countries outside US and top-tier EU countries (and Japan maybe - I do not have direct observations there) iPhones are CURRENTLY sold mostly at their unsubsidized price or with a small subsidy (say, %20 off the unsubsidized price). That price is $850 - $1000, local taxes included (e.g. 18% - 22% VAT). Even a phone at $450 - $600 range could triple the sales numbers.
2. Apple can easily meat the $450 - $600 target price by:
- using the last generation processor (e.g. A4 after releasing an A5 phone)
- using non-retina display with decent but not top image quality
- using reasonable capacity, e.g. 8 - 16 GB
The risk/problem for Apple is that they will need to sell the phone worldwide, including US and EU (black market and re-export, negative publicity etc.), and this will cannibalize part of the high-end phones The one-billion question is, to what extend.Get it done right, or get it in time for this summer???
I want them to get it done right in time for this summer.
Guess I'm just kind of anxious for a new iPhone. My 3GS is starting to show it's age, and this one was swapped out by Apple maybe 6 months or so ago when the external volume increase button stopped working. I really don't want to get an iPhone 4 and be locked into 2 years before I can upgrade, but...
Oh well. I guess we'll all find out in another couple months.
In July I'll be at my early upgrade eligibility and even that has been torturus to wait for, I really hope something is released in the summer, even if it's white iPhone 4. My 3GS is all kinds of beat up. I don't think I could wait till sept or even early 2012
A phone with specs equivalent to the original iPhone is not a bad place to start conceptually. A single VGA camera, non-retina display, 4GB Flash... Theyve got to decontent where the costs are, yet retain as much capability as is prudent. They need a phone that it targetted directly at the developing world, typical users in China, India, and South America. I'm not sure it should be called the iPhone Nano, because it won't be any smaller, but it does need to be a cheaper.
Here's the amazing thing. Over 5 Billion people have mobile phones, yet only 2 Billion have access to the internet. A developing-country iPhone could be the internet portal for billions of people across the globe. If Steve Jobs wants to change the world, that's where he does it.
The biggest hurdle to this vision is not the hardware. Scale and ASIC integration will push the cost down, down, down. There may always be a cutting edge $600 phone for the rich, but there is plenty of room for a $100 phone for the other 4 billion. The most immediate hurdle is the software. The developing-world iPhone can't be a computer peripheral like the current iPhone. It won't be successful if it needs to be tethered to a PC for activation and software updates. It needs to exist autonomously and sync to the cloud. My hope is that this is the reason for the deployment delays. The hardware is relatively easy, but the software is not yet ready.
The most immediate hurdle is the software. The developing-world iPhone can't be a computer peripheral like the current iPhone. It won't be successful if it needs to be tethered to a PC for activation and software updates. It needs to exist autonomously and sync to the cloud.
It seems you don't travel a lot. Have you ever been in a "developing country"?
Some how I just don't buy that Apple will put out a no contract iphone. It just does not make sense unless they plan on putting out a non contract iphone 3g. But why would they waste their time and money developing a subpar phone?
If they were able to make a 3GS or 4 model for say $125-150 and sell it no contract for prepaid systems it could be a huge sell. Especially if it was unlocked. The carriers would probably jump for it if they don't have to revenue share or if Apple's cut was much smaller.
And Apple could keep the 5 playing by current rules making them the big bucks while the 'baby' phone covers the PR of the folks whining for a prepaid supporting iphone
The iPhone4 is simply too expensive for the vast majority of people in the world.
This vast majority you speak of is too worried with having clean water, shoes etc to waste even $5 on a phone
Also, Apple has never and probably never back track the way you are suggesting. If only due to the nightmare of supporting the various lineups.
I assume from your quip that you believe I underestimate the markey penetration of PCs in the developing world.
Here's a chart that compares mobile phone vs. PC market penetration.
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart...uld-get-2011-3
A mobile phone subscriber has less than a 25% chance of having a PC.
A cheaper iPhone is the next growth driver for Apple and absolutely fundamental to their future. The iPhone4 is simply too expensive for the vast majority of people in the world. If I recall correctly, the average sell price of an iPhone is over $600. It's the best phone in the world, but it's priced for the wealthiest 10%. If Apple is going to continue their phenomenal growth then they will need to field a product for the next 50% of the market.
A phone with specs equivalent to the original iPhone is not a bad place to start conceptually. A single VGA camera, non-retina display, 4GB Flash... Theyve got to decontent where the costs are, yet retain as much capability as is prudent. They need a phone that it targetted directly at the developing world, typical users in China, India, and South America. I'm not sure it should be called the iPhone Nano, because it won't be any smaller, but it does need to be a cheaper.
Here's the amazing thing. Over 5 Billion people have mobile phones, yet only 2 Billion have access to the internet. A developing-country iPhone could be the internet portal for billions of people across the globe. If Steve Jobs wants to change the world, that's where he does it.
The biggest hurdle to this vision is not the hardware. Scale and ASIC integration will push the cost down, down, down. There may always be a cutting edge $600 phone for the rich, but there is plenty of room for a $100 phone for the other 4 billion. The most immediate hurdle is the software. The developing-world iPhone can't be a computer peripheral like the current iPhone. It won't be successful if it needs to be tethered to a PC for activation and software updates. It needs to exist autonomously and sync to the cloud. My hope is that this is the reason for the deployment delays. The hardware is relatively easy, but the software is not yet ready.
I think you nailed it. Great read.
I think if we don?t get a new iPhone this Summer that the odds will start looking good the next iPhone will be LTE compatible.
Will Apple still release iOS 5.0 this Summer as usual? I sure hope so. Will they fork the iPhone platform to offer a 3.5? and 4.x? model? I sure hope so.
I don't agree with you. LTE kills battery life at this time. AT&T is running far behind the other carriers. LTE iPhone by September of 2012 is much more likely. Plus LTE components are more costly than 3G and we've got the whole uncertainty with AT&T-Mobile as well.
Second, iOS 5 won't be shown until June. That means developers are not going to get a beta build until then. Last year iOS 4 was shown in April giving developers three months to work with it and get their apps up to speed. So going with that thinking, developers get the beta iOS 5 in June means we won't see iOS 5 gold master until at the earliest, August or September.
No way in hell Apple will show off iOS 5 for the first time to developers in June and then release it later in the month with new hardware. That is not enough time for developers to work with it. This is one point Apple has over Android. iOS is released with apps that take advantage of the new APIs.