Suppliers believe Apple could ship 45 million iPads in 2011

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Sales of the iPad in 2011 could exceed some of the highest expectations, as overseas component makers have indicated that Apple could sell 45 million of its touchscreen tablet this year.



Analyst Brian White with Ticonderoga Securities is on day 6 of his tech trip to China and Taiwan. In his meetings with component suppliers, sources have revealed expectations that Apple will sell between 40 million and 45 million iPads in 2011.



White said he heard those same figures in a separate visit to Asia last fall, but "at the time, this number was difficult for many investors and some in the media to get their heads around."



Sales of 45 million iPads would be well beyond the 30.9 million units White has forecast that Apple will sell in 2011. For comparison, analyst Charlie Wolf with Needham & Company sees Apple selling 30 million iPads, and Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets has called for 28 million in 2011. Taiwanese publication DigiTimes also cited industry sources in March, who suggested Apple would ship 40 million iPads in 2011.



To put the totals in perspective, Apple sold 15 million of the first-generation iPad in 2010, when it was only available for nine months. Last year's expansion of availability, both to new stores domestically and launching in new countries internationally, was also considerably slower than this year's rapid rollout.



AAPL investors will get their first look at calendar 2011 iPad sales next week, when Apple will report its earnings for the second quarter of its fiscal 2011. That period covers the first three months of 2011, including the few weeks where the iPad 2 was on sale.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 41
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,294member
    Now can AAPL go back to where it should be?
  • Reply 2 of 41
    mdriftmeyermdriftmeyer Posts: 7,282member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    Now can AAPL go back to where it should be?



    45 Million iPads in 2011 should put the stock well over $400/share.
  • Reply 3 of 41
    All I can think to say is "holy crap"
  • Reply 4 of 41
    Analysts are already certain that Apple is going to forecast "weak" guidance, so maybe 45 million iPad 2s are a bit of an exaggeration. More than doubling iPad's sales numbers from last year shouldn't be considered "weak" but you never know.
  • Reply 5 of 41
    I think it's hugely optimistic.



    But it's fun to speculate: 45M at an average price of $600 @ 20% profit margin implies $5.4B in profit from $27B in revenue from just iPads. If a PE of 16x is justified, given ~900M shares, that's $96 per share just from this one product!
  • Reply 6 of 41
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    At the next earnings call they will probably mention the 100 millionth iPhone sold milestone. By Summer they will probably mention the 200 millionth iOS device sold milestone, though they might be able to get that next week with shipping units. A year from that milestone they?ll have already achieved the 300 millionth iOS devices sold.
  • Reply 7 of 41
    stock price has nothing to do with how many iPads Apple sells. it should, but it doesn't. i wish it did, believe me.
  • Reply 8 of 41
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,294member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post


    45 Million iPads in 2011 should put the stock well over $400/share.



    You'd think. Until some 'expert' pundit says the Wi-Fi fails if you wrap it in a lead lined cloth.
  • Reply 9 of 41
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,294member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post


    stock price has nothing to do with how many iPads Apple sells. it should, but it doesn't. i wish it did, believe me.



    I know, hence my plea. So should the profit margin but that doesn't either.
  • Reply 10 of 41
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,294member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by massconn72 View Post


    All I can think to say is "holy crap"



    Wasn't some of that recently found? Oh no it was nails, my bad.
  • Reply 11 of 41
    I'm on record with a SWAG estimate of 60 million iPads (all models) sold in CY 2011 -- I'll stick with that!
  • Reply 12 of 41
    ltmpltmp Posts: 204member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post


    stock price has nothing to do with how many iPads Apple sells. it should, but it doesn't. i wish it did, believe me.



    Sure it does. When 3rd FQ sales of iPad failed to reach the consensus, Apple was penalized in the market.



    Furthermore, if AAPL can sell 45 million iPads, that's 30 million more than they had on last years balance sheet.



    So 30,000,000 x ASP of say $650 = $19.5 billion in revenue.



    Let's be conservative and say AAPL net margin after tax is 21% (I'm looking for 22.5% myself) that's $4.095Billion in earnings.



    Last I checked, there were 934,000,000 outstanding shares which gives us an earnings per share of $4.38.



    At a P/E of about 16 (I'm expecting the market to continue to lower the P/E), that is an added $70.08 per share in value.



    When you also figure in the increase to cash holdings, ($4 Billion divided by 934 million shares) thats another $4.25 or so per share.



    So, if AAPL does sell 45 million iPads this year, that SHOULD increase share price by something over $74.



    Of course, you're also correct in that their are millions of other factors that influence share value, such as banks causing another market crash.
  • Reply 13 of 41
    matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member
    Way optimistic. If it sold 45m. the tablet war might be over before it even begin. At that number the mind share Apple got would be so huge the public and developer have no choice but stick with iPad for a few years at least.
  • Reply 14 of 41
    tribalogicaltribalogical Posts: 1,181member
    I'm not so sure it's too optimistic. I think Apple will sell as many as they can build. There's no question the demand is there, and I see no reason for that not to continue and grow.



    As always for me, the bigger question is how many can they produce? That's where the limit will be first and foremost, not the market demand.



    iPad 1 finally got to the point where they were meeting demand with inventory flow. It took months. We see the same with iPad 2, but I think they're ramping it faster. I recall hearing they would be at roughly 3 million / mo. production capacity soon? And the fourth quarter demands even more, so presumably they'll be at 5 million plus by the last three months of the year. My math puts that pretty close to the 40 million mark, limited only by production capacity...



    Everyone I know that has spent any time using an iPad, really loves it. Especially when the apps they use have direct personal or professional relevance... everyone that has spent any time observing me using mine wants one. Everyone.



    Don't base a poll on people I know, it'd skew the numbers! Or maybe.... they reflect a bigger reality?



    In any case, I don't think the 'analysts' are right... once again they're off by about 10 million units... last year they crowed that Apple would *maybe* sell 2 ~ 3 million, and they sold what, 10?



    Now they say maybe 30... no, I'd say they could sell 50 million if they could make enough of them...



    Just my humble, unsubstantiated opinion....
  • Reply 15 of 41
    sambansamban Posts: 171member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post


    Way optimistic. If it sold 45m. the tablet war might be over before it even begin. At that number the mind share Apple got would be so huge the public and developer have no choice but stick with iPad for a few years at least.



    I thinks thats the whole idea flood the market with so many iPads that there is nothing left for the next year. Once, people that get used to the iPads & will only upgrade forward by transferring all their purchases to the newer ones.
  • Reply 16 of 41
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,294member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tribalogical View Post


    I'm not so sure it's too optimistic. I think Apple will sell as many as they can build. There's no question the demand is there, and I see no reason for that not to continue and grow.



    As always for me, the bigger question is how many can they produce? That's where the limit will be first and foremost, not the market demand.



    iPad 1 finally got to the point where they were meeting demand with inventory flow. It took months. We see the same with iPad 2, but I think they're ramping it faster. I recall hearing they would be at roughly 3 million / mo. production capacity soon? And the fourth quarter demands even more, so presumably they'll be at 5 million plus by the last three months of the year. My math puts that pretty close to the 40 million mark, limited only by production capacity...



    Everyone I know that has spent any time using an iPad, really loves it. Especially when the apps they use have direct personal or professional relevance... everyone that has spent any time observing me using mine wants one. Everyone.



    Don't base a poll on people I know, it'd skew the numbers! Or maybe.... they reflect a bigger reality?



    In any case, I don't think the 'analysts' are right... once again they're off by about 10 million units... last year they crowed that Apple would *maybe* sell 2 ~ 3 million, and they sold what, 10?



    Now they say maybe 30... no, I'd say they could sell 50 million if they could make enough of them...



    Just my humble, unsubstantiated opinion....



    Fear not. to paraphrase a movie title ... 'If they come Apple will build'.
  • Reply 17 of 41
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,511member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post


    Analysts are already certain that Apple is going to forecast "weak" guidance, so maybe 45 million iPad 2s are a bit of an exaggeration. More than doubling iPad's sales numbers from last year shouldn't be considered "weak" but you never know.



    Then again, what Apple guides and what Apple does are two completely different things. I could certainly see them accelerating towards 4 million units per month and even beyond as we head into the seasonally stronger second part of the year, and as Apple ramps its builds. But I can also see them maintaining very conservative guidance, especially for the next quarter in which their build ramp may be challenged by the supply chain management that they are reportedly performing.



    Thompson
  • Reply 18 of 41
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post


    stock price has nothing to do with how many iPads Apple sells. it should, but it doesn't. i wish it did, believe me.



    Amen to that, brother!
  • Reply 19 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    I'm on record with a SWAG estimate of 60 million iPads (all models) sold in CY 2011 -- I'll stick with that!



    Took the words out of my mouth; 60...not bad for a "oversized iPod Touch:
  • Reply 20 of 41
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,580member
    If the suppliers are saying 45MM build capacity, Apple will sell 45MM. I'd guess the numbers are 20% high based on companies exagerating, but equally likely they are 10% low...
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