Is this guy serious. Windows down as Apple rises, look at Microsofts profit and revenue, as successful as Apple has been it so far hasn't made any impact. People haven't switched from a $1000 pc at work to an iPad, they've just got an iPad as well.
All this forecasts in various flavors are well and good to read about. Althhough i'd like to read more what Apple is doing product wise, like how are they going to break into the Microwave market. With the Apple branded television set coming, everything is fairgame now i guess.
I also see Apple having just taken all the wind out of Microsofts sails.
I'm 64, an Apple guy. I go for the 10 year dominance rap! Been watching it unfold for
the past 7 years.
I teach High School. I do not know one teenager who salivates over a windows device. They moan to use the old Dulls, but settle only because that is all the school has. ( contract nonsense!) shorts the youngsters?.....
All of them, use or want an Apple computer, iPad, iPhone, touch, on n on, not anything else.
These are the people who will be running the world in 15 years or so.
I don't think they will be running it with Windozzz!
Did I forget the auto industry with iPod plug ins. Never know, a microwave could be
in the works...what is Apple doing product wise...EVERYTHING! Well at least all things electronic, media, communication on n on. Just pick a product to improve. Then Appleize it! he..he..
Forget that little product called Office and that with 20 years of programs Windows isn't going to disappear in 5 years.
No it isn't going away soon, that's a pretty safe bet, but at the rate Microsoft is fading, I wouldn't be surprised if a bigger fish buys them within 10 years.
MS rose to power via mostly damn good luck. IBM wanted to license the OS for the PC from Digital Research, and when Digital Research wouldn't negotiate Microsoft made a sharp move to buy the license from a third part and then entered negotiations with IBM. Quickly MS became king of the hill, and ever since they have used their strength to bully their competition and the market, manipulating things to their advantage. They've totally lagged when it comes to good products.
Other kids on the block (Google, Apple, Facebook) have grown up and MS can't manipulate things the way they used to. Well... they did buy Nokia which has been one of their primary strategies in the past. I don't see that as helping MS, and will likely only hurt Nokia. But, I digress... MS isn't king anymore, and they have virtually no experience in producing good products (aside from Excel & XBOX), and are innovative only in the slightest.
Apple may not be king in 10 years, but without some major changes in leadership I can imagine MS as only a footnote.
Uh oh... The man who said "not one" person who bought the original iPhone "will still be using an iPhone a month" is now recommending Apple... are you worried yet?
This is EXACTLY like Gartner: whenever their negative predictions about Apple turns out wrong, AI (and others) jump (correctly) on the "look what a bunch of idiots they turned out to be" bandwagon. But when Gartner makes a positive prediction about Apple, AI (and others) will then quote the suddenly "legitimate" news/prediction ad infinitum...
Well, you can't have it both ways. McNamee (and Gartner) have just about the same amount of cred they did before: Zero. You can't cherry back their validity.
...20 page report? Let's do it on a 10" touchscreen.
Heck, yes! Why not? The crap that people put out with MS Office, they are better off concentrating on 1/4 page at a time anyway. When I get my iPad2 I am looking forward to plugging it in to a large monitor.
Pages at 9.99 is far more intuitive and usable with its media and inspector pallets; get a bluetooth Apple keyboard, and you are away. Sit in a meeting with it and type notes directly into it; finish it up over lunch, save as a Word doc or PDF, voila.
He was wrong then, why should I think he's right now?
Depends how you think about "right" and "wrong", I guess.
If you are a thorough-going Post Modern, then there is no reason to think he's "right" now. Heck, what is "right" anyway, right? And who cares, anyway? Pick any 7 positions on something and they could all be "right" or all be "wrong", and who's to say which is "right" and which is "wrong"? And from who's perspective? All 7 positions have to be treated as equally valid no matter their individual merits.
If a Post-Modern found him "wrong" then, they'd just as likely find him "wrong" now -- and it may be to do with the color of his underwear. Post Modernism can be a cosy place to live, but it doesn't always cut it in the real world where people's money is involved.
Without putting too much stock in its excesses, some elements of Modernism (and Pre-Modernism) are still required to make decisions or value judgements. One could look at "right" and "wrong" as being on some kind of continuum, or the flip-sides of a coin -- with some kind of outside, objective or internally logical criteria to distinguish the two ends of the spectrum. That being the case, when someone who was "wrong" before essentially makes a 180 degree turn, they are very likely to be moving into "right" territory.
Maybe he is just taking a stab in the dark with a couple of his new predictions; but since he is showing some re-assessment and realignment in his thinking regarding his reverse turn on Apple, then maybe others of his new predictions have some coherence or internal logic, too (there would seem to be some merit to his new views on Apple at least, since it matches the reality of the situation more closely).
Come on. I don't like Microsoft products very much, but Sync rocks. It is also pretty hard to put the Virus on a vehicle. You either need direct access or have to hack the bluetooth (also very hard) and requires one to be a short distance from the vehicle.
What you are talking about happened in a lab setting by researchers studying the issue with OnStar and Sync vehicles. While possible, you aren't going to see virus infected vehicles for a while unless they are Saabs who are allowing one to control most of the functions of the vehicle using an Android phone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charel
The MS sync software has been compromised allowing hackers to take complete control of the car.
That includes the internet connection, locks, engine controls, brakes and accelerator.
They made the mistake of full integration of all software functions as in Windows. We all know how vulnerable to viruses that system is.
Funny. I was watching the very same interview this morning, and remember thinking two things: one, that he's making a tremendously cogent argument about where tech is headed in the near term, and two, that he's done a 180 degree turn on Apple. I agree strongly with his sentiments on both fronts (although the latter should have at least warranted a meaculpa).
McNamee is a superbly smart and perceptive guy, and it's obvious that in his prior running down of Apple, he was simply trying to put a floor on the value of his Palm investment.
Incidentally, the other area where I agree with him completely is on his bearish view of Google. As I have been saying in these forums for over a year now, Google's best days are behind it.
I saw it too and had the same reaction. I couldn't agree more with your assessment.
Incidentally, the other area where I agree with him completely is on his bearish view of Google. As I have been saying in these forums for over a year now, Google's best days are behind it.
Your expectations of Google's demise may be just a tad premature. Somehow they managed to eke out $2.3 billion profit in the first quarter. Peanuts compared to Apple profits, but with $37 billion in cash laying around, they might be able to find some way to hang around just awhile longer.
Seriously tho, Neither Apple nor Google needs to stumble for the other to be successful. They both bring things to the mobile market that the other may not. There's room for both.
Look at it this way: Investing $10,000 in either of them in 2004 would make you a pretty darn happy guy today
Your expectations of Google's demise may be just a tad premature. Somehow they managed to eke out $2.3 billion profit in the first quarter. Peanuts compared to Apple profits, but with $37 billion in cash laying around, they might be able to find some way to hang around just awhile longer.
Seriously tho, Neither Apple nor Google needs to stumble for the other to be successful. They both bring things to the mobile market that the other may not. There's room for both.
Look at it this way: Investing $10,000 in either of them in 2004 would make you a pretty darn happy guy today
Yeah, Google will be fine. I can't wait to see what they do with their car project. That is going to be huge I think.
"Apple will likely lead a 10-year technology growth cycle"
Sorry Bubba Bucks - but you're 10 years too late
.
Tried to learn some about McNamee, his background, how he got his money/creds
Not many details available ...
Appears he's from a family with Father who was some kind of Regional Banker/Investor in NY State years ago - McNamee goes to Yale, then later gets involved with Seagate. And along the way he fancies himself a 'Rock and Roll Musician' - even managed to make friends with Bono.
Ok, interesting, but no "Steve Jobs starting in parent's garage" story. Maybe McNamee's Dad had a pile of cash and helped Son along the way ? Seems safe to assume McNamee got fortunate in his timing with Seagate and whatever money he made there.
Ergo - could be just a "Rich Kid" who thinks he knows what he's doing and what he's talking about ?
Or - could just be someone who got dumb ass lucky when he did the equivalent of "hitting the Tech/Digital Lottery" 15 to 20 years ago ?
Either way, sounds like he's still a "wannabe" (in Tech as well as Music) - and sorry, but all the money in the World won't be able to change that.
.
So follow McNamee's advice with caution
Doubt he could give credible guidance on how to find a bathroom
.
p.s.
And curious if he's just pissed off now cause 10 years ago he passed on buying a chitload of APPL at $12 ?
Comments
All this forecasts in various flavors are well and good to read about. Althhough i'd like to read more what Apple is doing product wise, like how are they going to break into the Microwave market. With the Apple branded television set coming, everything is fairgame now i guess.
I also see Apple having just taken all the wind out of Microsofts sails.
I'm 64, an Apple guy. I go for the 10 year dominance rap! Been watching it unfold for
the past 7 years.
I teach High School. I do not know one teenager who salivates over a windows device. They moan to use the old Dulls, but settle only because that is all the school has. ( contract nonsense!) shorts the youngsters?.....
All of them, use or want an Apple computer, iPad, iPhone, touch, on n on, not anything else.
These are the people who will be running the world in 15 years or so.
I don't think they will be running it with Windozzz!
Did I forget the auto industry with iPod plug ins. Never know, a microwave could be
in the works...what is Apple doing product wise...EVERYTHING! Well at least all things electronic, media, communication on n on. Just pick a product to improve. Then Appleize it! he..he..
Forget that little product called Office and that with 20 years of programs Windows isn't going to disappear in 5 years.
No it isn't going away soon, that's a pretty safe bet, but at the rate Microsoft is fading, I wouldn't be surprised if a bigger fish buys them within 10 years.
MS rose to power via mostly damn good luck. IBM wanted to license the OS for the PC from Digital Research, and when Digital Research wouldn't negotiate Microsoft made a sharp move to buy the license from a third part and then entered negotiations with IBM. Quickly MS became king of the hill, and ever since they have used their strength to bully their competition and the market, manipulating things to their advantage. They've totally lagged when it comes to good products.
Other kids on the block (Google, Apple, Facebook) have grown up and MS can't manipulate things the way they used to. Well... they did buy Nokia which has been one of their primary strategies in the past. I don't see that as helping MS, and will likely only hurt Nokia. But, I digress... MS isn't king anymore, and they have virtually no experience in producing good products (aside from Excel & XBOX), and are innovative only in the slightest.
Apple may not be king in 10 years, but without some major changes in leadership I can imagine MS as only a footnote.
Well, you can't have it both ways. McNamee (and Gartner) have just about the same amount of cred they did before: Zero. You can't cherry back their validity.
...
Did I forget the auto industry with iPod plug ins...
No, but you did forget all the Ford cars with Microsoft Sync software built in.
...20 page report? Let's do it on a 10" touchscreen.
Heck, yes! Why not? The crap that people put out with MS Office, they are better off concentrating on 1/4 page at a time anyway. When I get my iPad2 I am looking forward to plugging it in to a large monitor.
Pages at 9.99 is far more intuitive and usable with its media and inspector pallets; get a bluetooth Apple keyboard, and you are away. Sit in a meeting with it and type notes directly into it; finish it up over lunch, save as a Word doc or PDF, voila.
No, but you did forget all the Ford cars with Microsoft Sync software built in.
The MS sync software has been compromised allowing hackers to take complete control of the car.
That includes the internet connection, locks, engine controls, brakes and accelerator.
They made the mistake of full integration of all software functions as in Windows. We all know how vulnerable to viruses that system is.
He was wrong then, why should I think he's right now?
Depends how you think about "right" and "wrong", I guess.
If you are a thorough-going Post Modern, then there is no reason to think he's "right" now. Heck, what is "right" anyway, right? And who cares, anyway? Pick any 7 positions on something and they could all be "right" or all be "wrong", and who's to say which is "right" and which is "wrong"? And from who's perspective? All 7 positions have to be treated as equally valid no matter their individual merits.
If a Post-Modern found him "wrong" then, they'd just as likely find him "wrong" now -- and it may be to do with the color of his underwear. Post Modernism can be a cosy place to live, but it doesn't always cut it in the real world where people's money is involved.
Without putting too much stock in its excesses, some elements of Modernism (and Pre-Modernism) are still required to make decisions or value judgements. One could look at "right" and "wrong" as being on some kind of continuum, or the flip-sides of a coin -- with some kind of outside, objective or internally logical criteria to distinguish the two ends of the spectrum. That being the case, when someone who was "wrong" before essentially makes a 180 degree turn, they are very likely to be moving into "right" territory.
Maybe he is just taking a stab in the dark with a couple of his new predictions; but since he is showing some re-assessment and realignment in his thinking regarding his reverse turn on Apple, then maybe others of his new predictions have some coherence or internal logic, too (there would seem to be some merit to his new views on Apple at least, since it matches the reality of the situation more closely).
Let's see, he obviously didn't get it right the first time. Everything he says we've been reading from the news and bloggers. So why is he news?
I was gonna say that!
No really. I'm getting sick and tired of these pundits showing up on TV and re-wording comments and analysis from forums... like this one!
plus he really bombed on the whole Palm thing last year... he had to get it right this time, or he would lose all financial cred.
What you are talking about happened in a lab setting by researchers studying the issue with OnStar and Sync vehicles. While possible, you aren't going to see virus infected vehicles for a while unless they are Saabs who are allowing one to control most of the functions of the vehicle using an Android phone.
The MS sync software has been compromised allowing hackers to take complete control of the car.
That includes the internet connection, locks, engine controls, brakes and accelerator.
They made the mistake of full integration of all software functions as in Windows. We all know how vulnerable to viruses that system is.
Funny. I was watching the very same interview this morning, and remember thinking two things: one, that he's making a tremendously cogent argument about where tech is headed in the near term, and two, that he's done a 180 degree turn on Apple. I agree strongly with his sentiments on both fronts (although the latter should have at least warranted a mea culpa).
McNamee is a superbly smart and perceptive guy, and it's obvious that in his prior running down of Apple, he was simply trying to put a floor on the value of his Palm investment.
Incidentally, the other area where I agree with him completely is on his bearish view of Google. As I have been saying in these forums for over a year now, Google's best days are behind it.
I saw it too and had the same reaction. I couldn't agree more with your assessment.
Incidentally, the other area where I agree with him completely is on his bearish view of Google. As I have been saying in these forums for over a year now, Google's best days are behind it.
Your expectations of Google's demise may be just a tad premature. Somehow they managed to eke out $2.3 billion profit in the first quarter. Peanuts compared to Apple profits, but with $37 billion in cash laying around, they might be able to find some way to hang around just awhile longer.
Seriously tho, Neither Apple nor Google needs to stumble for the other to be successful. They both bring things to the mobile market that the other may not. There's room for both.
Look at it this way: Investing $10,000 in either of them in 2004 would make you a pretty darn happy guy today
He was wrong then, why should I think he's right now?
Because you're on an Apple fan forum and he likes Apple now.
Your expectations of Google's demise may be just a tad premature. Somehow they managed to eke out $2.3 billion profit in the first quarter. Peanuts compared to Apple profits, but with $37 billion in cash laying around, they might be able to find some way to hang around just awhile longer.
Seriously tho, Neither Apple nor Google needs to stumble for the other to be successful. They both bring things to the mobile market that the other may not. There's room for both.
Look at it this way: Investing $10,000 in either of them in 2004 would make you a pretty darn happy guy today
Yeah, Google will be fine. I can't wait to see what they do with their car project. That is going to be huge I think.
"Apple will likely lead a 10-year technology growth cycle"
Sorry Bubba Bucks - but you're 10 years too late
.
Tried to learn some about McNamee, his background, how he got his money/creds
Not many details available ...
Appears he's from a family with Father who was some kind of Regional Banker/Investor in NY State years ago - McNamee goes to Yale, then later gets involved with Seagate. And along the way he fancies himself a 'Rock and Roll Musician' - even managed to make friends with Bono.
Ok, interesting, but no "Steve Jobs starting in parent's garage" story. Maybe McNamee's Dad had a pile of cash and helped Son along the way ? Seems safe to assume McNamee got fortunate in his timing with Seagate and whatever money he made there.
Ergo - could be just a "Rich Kid" who thinks he knows what he's doing and what he's talking about ?
Or - could just be someone who got dumb ass lucky when he did the equivalent of "hitting the Tech/Digital Lottery" 15 to 20 years ago ?
Either way, sounds like he's still a "wannabe" (in Tech as well as Music) - and sorry, but all the money in the World won't be able to change that.
.
So follow McNamee's advice with caution
Doubt he could give credible guidance on how to find a bathroom
.
p.s.
And curious if he's just pissed off now cause 10 years ago he passed on buying a chitload of APPL at $12 ?
.