76% of iPhone owners plan to use Apple's iCloud, 30% interested in iTunes Match
A new survey of iPhone users indicates that Apple's iCloud service could gain 150 million users, while nearly as many are also interested in using iMessage.
Mike Abramsky, analyst with RBC Capital Markets, revealed on Monday the results of a new proprietary survey of 1,500 respondents conducted between June 7 and 14. The poll found that 76 percent of iPhone users said they are "very" or "somewhat" likely to use Apple's iCloud service, which would amount to 150 million users.
If Apple were to have 150 million iCloud users, it would be competing with services like Google's Gmail, at 200 million users, Yahoo, with 300 million registered users, and Twitter, also at 300 million.
iCloud was unveiled earlier this month at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference. The free service will become available this fall, replacing Apple's existing MobileMe product.
The survey also found 73 percent of iPhone users indicated they are "very" or "somewhat" likely to use iMessage, Apple's new proprietary chat service, similar to Research in Motion's BlackBerry Messenger. Abramsky said the results show Apple is likely to enhance the loyalty of existing iPhone users, as well as its 60-million-plus iPod touch users.
"Because it stores user data, iCloud, along with iTunes is expected to enhance loyalty and stickiness of Apple's customers, helping defend against threats from Android, helping grow a defensible install base of users who continually upgrade to next generation Macs, iPhones, iPads, and iPods," Abramsky wrote.
In addition, the survey also found that 30 percent of iPhone users said they are either "very" or "somewhat" likely to spend $24.99 on the new iTunes Match service. Through iTunes Match, Apple will scan a user's library of songs, including those ripped from their own CDs, and match the tracks up with the library of 18 million songs available through iTunes, even upgrading them to high-quality 256Kbps AAC audio files.
Abramsky said the survey suggests that Apple could earn a "nominal" $1.5 billion per year in revenue, or 1 percent of annual revenue. Assuming that the gross margins associated with iTunes Match are around 10 percent, which is in line with iTunes content sales, he would also expect the service to have a nominal impact on Apple's earnings per share.
Mike Abramsky, analyst with RBC Capital Markets, revealed on Monday the results of a new proprietary survey of 1,500 respondents conducted between June 7 and 14. The poll found that 76 percent of iPhone users said they are "very" or "somewhat" likely to use Apple's iCloud service, which would amount to 150 million users.
If Apple were to have 150 million iCloud users, it would be competing with services like Google's Gmail, at 200 million users, Yahoo, with 300 million registered users, and Twitter, also at 300 million.
iCloud was unveiled earlier this month at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference. The free service will become available this fall, replacing Apple's existing MobileMe product.
The survey also found 73 percent of iPhone users indicated they are "very" or "somewhat" likely to use iMessage, Apple's new proprietary chat service, similar to Research in Motion's BlackBerry Messenger. Abramsky said the results show Apple is likely to enhance the loyalty of existing iPhone users, as well as its 60-million-plus iPod touch users.
"Because it stores user data, iCloud, along with iTunes is expected to enhance loyalty and stickiness of Apple's customers, helping defend against threats from Android, helping grow a defensible install base of users who continually upgrade to next generation Macs, iPhones, iPads, and iPods," Abramsky wrote.
In addition, the survey also found that 30 percent of iPhone users said they are either "very" or "somewhat" likely to spend $24.99 on the new iTunes Match service. Through iTunes Match, Apple will scan a user's library of songs, including those ripped from their own CDs, and match the tracks up with the library of 18 million songs available through iTunes, even upgrading them to high-quality 256Kbps AAC audio files.
Abramsky said the survey suggests that Apple could earn a "nominal" $1.5 billion per year in revenue, or 1 percent of annual revenue. Assuming that the gross margins associated with iTunes Match are around 10 percent, which is in line with iTunes content sales, he would also expect the service to have a nominal impact on Apple's earnings per share.
Comments
A new survey of iPhone users indicates that Apple's iCloud service could gain 150 million users, while nearly as many are also interested in using iMessage.
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iCloud was unveiled earlier this month at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference. The free service will become available this fall, replacing Apple's existing MobileMe product.
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I am curious about the old .Mac addresses and resumption of using them under iCloud. There are several threads at Apple support where posters (who aren't indicated to be Apple employees) say that the old e-mail addresses are gone and their current use as an Apple ID is just a textual placeholder. There are also several threads that say that .Mac and MobileMe addresses do come forward to iCloud. My specific question is can I resume using a .Mac address (that I initially created back in the iTools days [11 years ago] that I never converted over to the pay system when Apple changed their terms)?
I am certain that iCloud will get over 95% adoption rate.
I'm sure there are the privacy zealots who don't want their data in big brother's cloud...but that is probably only 1-2%.
One of the best things about the Apple ecosphere is that, for the most part, there is this great integration between all the pieces and parts. The morning that the 3GS iPhone went on sale, all my MobileMe contacts and calendars were available on my new iPhone, before I even left the AT&T store. I think once most people figure that out about iTunes Match, my guess is that it'll have a lot more than 30% penetration amongst iPhone/iTouch/iPad users.
I am curious about the old .Mac addresses and resumption of using them under iCloud. There are several threads at Apple support where posters (who aren't indicated to be Apple employees) say that the old e-mail addresses are gone and their current use as an Apple ID is just a textual placeholder. There are also several threads that say that .Mac and MobileMe addresses do come forward to iCloud. My specific question is can I resume using a .Mac address (that I initially created back in the iTools days [11 years ago] that I never converted over to the pay system when Apple changed their terms)?
I seriously doubt that @mac.com address that have not been used since the Dot Mac days will be re-instated. There is a possibility that @mac.com address that have been kept active through MobleMe may continue to be used with iCloud. At this point Apple hasn't said for sure either way, but I don't see why currently used @mac.com addresses wouldn't be supported with iCloud.
I get the impression that most of the 13% who say they won't use it...don't even understand what it is.
I am certain that iCloud will get over 95% adoption rate.
I'm sure there are the privacy zealots who don't want their data in big brother's cloud...but that is probably only 1-2%.
If it's just for storing movies and music and other non sensitive/private information, I have no problem with that data in the cloud.
I get the impression that most of the 13% who say they won't use it...don't even understand what it is.
I am certain that iCloud will get over 95% adoption rate.
I'm sure there are the privacy zealots who don't want their data in big brother's cloud...but that is probably only 1-2%.
This shows that most don't understand what it is or how it will work. I'll weigh in with 99.99% for iOS-based devices. Why? Because iCloud will be invisible in most regards.
If you've ever downloaded a song from iTunes? you're part of iCloud.
If you've ever bought an iOS App Store app? you're part of iCloud.
If you've ever bought a Mac App Store app? you're part of iCloud.
That excludes iOS, Mac OS, Apple apps and 3rd-party apps that will backup your content and save your state between devices.
Whatever happened to the rumours of a new higher quality format to replace all these different options?
One of the best things about the Apple ecosphere is that, for the most part, there is this great integration between all the pieces and parts.
That is true, until they abandon the product. I speak of iWeb whose integration with all things Mac including hosting was fabulous. I adopted it and use it extensively and exclusively. Now it appears I am being dumped. No more development and go find yourself another host. I will continue to use my MobileMe mail, calendars, contacts for free on iCloud. But the only thing I am willing to pay for is hosting my iWeb sites. I just don't use my iTunes for music all that much anymore. Just for podcasts and managing my iOS devices. Certainly don't want to pay just for music enhancements.
I seriously doubt that @mac.com address that have not been used since the Dot Mac days will be re-instated. There is a possibility that @mac.com address that have been kept active through MobleMe may continue to be used with iCloud. At this point Apple hasn't said for sure either way, but I don't see why currently used @mac.com addresses wouldn't be supported with iCloud.
I am in the same boat. My .Mac address is also my iTunes account address ([email protected]). I am hopeful of somehow I can start using my .Mac address again for free.
I get the impression that most of the 13% who say they won't use it...don't even understand what it is.
I am certain that iCloud will get over 95% adoption rate.
I'm sure there are the privacy zealots who don't want their data in big brother's cloud...but that is probably only 1-2%.
I think I've got one foot in the door of the privacy zealot category. I love the feature that auto saves and pushes to each of my devices, but what I wonder about is my ability to choose when I want to have large pieces of my work kept local. I don't expect legions of fans to be trying to gain illegal access to my files, but I would like to retain the ability to store locally. So, my question is, given there is no "save" button in Pages for Lion, will I be able to turn icloud "off" on my mac as well? I suppose so, now that I think about it. I saw a picture of the iphone showing an icloud "on/off" switch, so that would make sense. I'm not too worried about big brother...then again, I don't want to have my stuff investigated just because some random character wants to commit x and such terrorist act. If I'm being paranoid, maybe someone could give me a hug.
I am curious about the old .Mac addresses and resumption of using them under iCloud. There are several threads at Apple support where posters (who aren't indicated to be Apple employees) say that the old e-mail addresses are gone and their current use as an Apple ID is just a textual placeholder. There are also several threads that say that .Mac and MobileMe addresses do come forward to iCloud. My specific question is can I resume using a .Mac address (that I initially created back in the iTools days [11 years ago] that I never converted over to the pay system when Apple changed their terms)?
Unless something has changed again, you should be able to resurrect any ID back to the iTools days, but only as a .me address. They gave us 'one last chance' to keep them .mac a couple of years ago or so, when .mac became MobileMe.
Any .Mac address that was ever registered can only be retaken by the original owner, assuming you have the password (or registration info?). But again, only as .me.
I get the impression that most of the 13% who say they won't use it...don't even understand what it is.
I am certain that iCloud will get over 95% adoption rate.
I'm sure there are the privacy zealots who don't want their data in big brother's cloud...but that is probably only 1-2%.
They could be jail breakers, people with lots of illegally downloaded music or apps, and the tin foil hat wearing privacy crowd.
They could be jail breakers
Jailbroken devices won't be prevented from using iCloud, though.
people with lots of illegally downloaded music or apps
*coughiTunesMatchcough*
I get the impression that most of the 13% who say they won't use it...don't even understand what it is.
I am certain that iCloud will get over 95% adoption rate.
I'm sure there are the privacy zealots who don't want their data in big brother's cloud...but that is probably only 1-2%.
I am certain that post launch all new iphone users will be using iCloud. Why? because Apple will have their sales folks sign the buyers up as part of their 'personal setup'. They won't be given a choice. ANd in a way it's a good thing. Because apparently something like 75% of folks showing up at the Genius Bar never synced their phones ever. So they just lost everything or have to go home to do it (Apple won't do to privacy liability) before getting a swap
I have a lot of music ripped from CDs into Apple Lossless. Presumably I would have to convert them to AAC 256 before using iTunes Match.
Nope. It is matching title/artist etc. Doesn't care about format so long as it is in your itunes library. but you won't get Loseless if you are accessing the Match version. You'll get 256. But you can still have your Loseless version at home.
In some instances, surveys are about as useful as styrofoam windchimes.
and .mac email addresses still work- sure they may just be an alias for .me but it still works, for now at least, an I don't see how a transition from MobileMe to iCloud would require than change.
It seems to me that way too many folks are still confused and thinking that iCloud and iTunes Music Match are synonymous.
Okay - maybe as a total package of services and offerings and branding - iCloud has not yet completely replaced MobileMe and there will be some changes in the next year in store that will impact past users of MobileMe - but I just don't see how it is really that radical a shift for the vast majority of users to the point where many will either not notice or just think oh cool looky at the new button on my iOS device.
I am certain that iCloud will get over 95% adoption rate.
Given that the necessary OS is installed on way less than 95% of the iPhones out there, I don't understand your reasoning.