I assume this includes all of the £50 shitty Android 1.6 and 2.2 tablets with resistive screens that are selling in the bargain bin shops in the UK?
And all of these half price or less, unsubsidized, than iPhone sold here. I don't know why people think this number has a deep meaning. Android will always has volume. What else is news?
Funny... my kids and their friends all want iPads, but will settle for iPod Touches. They're too young for phones (kindergarten and younger), but are amassing quite a few iOS apps they like that they'll probably be able to transfer to an iPhone someday.
Yes, they want the iPad too. They play COD Zombies on it interminably. Sounds like this game is about undead fish, but it turns out COD stands for Call of Duty, a popular game series. Wanting iPads is not mutually exclusive with wanting a cool Android phone, I guess. The 12 year old wants a Kindle also...
If you imagine that a wave of products that aren't iPad which will double the market for tablets in that region is somehow good for Apple, your imagination is far more active than my own.
I know that Android fans think the inevitable decline of the iPad is inevitable, but I am wondering why it hasn't happened yet, and doesn't look like happening this year. This year was the year of the HoneyComb, which was apparently a iPad OS killer, and the Playbook, apparently an iPad killer, and the 100 tablets which were al also iPad killers. And yet, it remains unbloodied and unbowed. 2012 will be the year of the next 100 tablets, honeycomb 1.2, and probably not the Playbook. I cant see Apple losing.
The iPod was also under threat and it's brand and low price points kept it safe. Apple have, unlike the iPhone, started low in price ( and yes given component costs: the iPad is cheap) and may go lower as their specialised factories come on line - they have spent 11B on something or other.
The iPod started expensive, and now protects all price points.
In the iPhone space I see them coming in a low-mid range this year, a cheap 3GS, and doing something "special" next year along with an expensive model. Apple needs an expensive model for two reasons: it probably needs to add LTE and NFC to one model, but most people wont need that; and the higher price point of the top end model can subsidise the lower entry models. If you sell that top model at a $100 premium, and 10% of your userbase buy that, you can afford to sell 20-30% of your stuff as cheaper low end models without effects on margin.
a touch UI is a generic feature common among all smartphones. do you think that the phonemaker who first introduces touch gets to have the feature exclusive in perpetuity? also, smartphones run applications....is it that shocking that they would have an app store too? again a completely generic feature that you are suggesting android took from apple. not very persuasive. does it really bother you that much that android is activating more devices than iOS.
look it doesn't matter how many devices android or iOS activate. as long as they both do well and keep pushing the technological envelope it benefits everyone. apple makes the best hardware, bar none. iOS is a fantastic OS. but so is android, and i happen to like different features that both OS's have. android had better notifications and maps w/ navigation. iOS has the best music player and store ever! also the camera is much better on iPhone 4. i like windows phone too. they all offer something different and interesting...
yes, phones have all these features in common now.. but none of them had them before the iPhone. as for your comment about pushing technology, I agree, and of course innovation is great wherever it comes from. I like what windows did with windows phone 7, and webOS as well. I just find it funny to hear fandroids brag about thier system when it would not be here as we know it today were it not for apple (and eric schmitt's mole efforts while on the apple board).
That settles it. If someone here can read Tim Cook's mind, how can the rest of you argue?
It's not that hard. He speaks in regular english. All they talk about are expanding to more carriers, selling pre-paid models (no-contract models), and adopting TD-LTE. You know, basically the same questions analysts ask Apple every time during conference calls. Nary a word about lower end models or moving downmarket.
I'll go out on a limb here and predict that tablet sales, including iPad, will decline in a period shorter than the previous netbook dominance. If 2011 is The Year of the Tablet, that would mean decline by 2014 at the latest. There will always be a solid niche for tablets, such as in the medical field, factory floor management, and other workflows in which people are already used to working with one hand holding a clipboard. But their popularity as an end-user device will not sustain itself.
I wont go out on a limb and suggest that there will be more tablet sales than laptop sales in a few years. The future is not a "phone" because it obviously compliments that category. The tablet is probably an additional device. I have a laptop, tablet and e-reader and the phone. Owning some, or all of these, is common enough. Apple are not quite at the price point where they can make that inflection curve, but they will get there. An e-reader is not a tablet, and doesnt do what a tablet does. It would have been hopeless playing my video last night - on the other hand a tablet can do pretty much what a laptop does, although you do need a keybord to do it well.
I think you are down on tablets because Apple is winning the tablet war.
I wont go out on a limb and suggest that there will be more tablet sales than laptop sales in a few years. The future is not a "phone" because it obviously compliments that category. The tablet is probably an additional device. I have a laptop, tablet and e-reader and the phone. Owning some, or all of these, is common enough. Apple are not quite at the price point where they can make that inflection curve, but they will get there. An e-reader is not a tablet, and doesnt do what a tablet does. It would have been hopeless playing my video last night - on the other hand a tablet can do pretty much what a laptop does, although you do need a keybord to do it well.
I think you are down on tablets because Apple is winning the tablet war.
I think MacRulez is down on tablets because he has no vision.
He's the guy who, in 1989, said that Mac portables won't take off because they're cumbersome and slow.
An e-reader is not a tablet, and doesnt do what a tablet does. It would have been hopeless playing my video last night - on the other hand a tablet can do pretty much what a laptop does, although you do need a keybord to do it well.
But some e-readers, like the Barnes & Noble Nook Color, do most of the common tasks a full-fledged tablet does. Besides reading magazines and books, my wife uses it for her email and general web-browsing, looking up recipes and researching med info for her clients. And she enjoys listening to Pandora while reading. My son loaded a couple of games (AngryBirds was one) to it that he enjoys more than she does. There's nothing she's needed to do that the Nook doesn't handle as adequately as an iPad would. But the Nook is at least half the price of the least expensive iPad2.
I think perhaps a large percentage of tablet users would be served just as well by a device like the Nook as by Apple's iPad. And it's much more transportable. Just my opinion.
But some e-readers, like the Barnes & Noble Nook Color, do most of the common tasks a full-fledged tablet does. Besides reading magazines and books, my wife uses it for her email and general web-browsing, looking up recipes and researching med info for her clients. And she enjoys listening to Pandora while reading. My son loaded a couple of games (AngryBirds was one) to it that he enjoys more than she does. There's nothing she's needed to do that the Nook doesn't handle as adequately as an iPad would. But the Nook is at least half the price of the least expensive iPad2.
I think perhaps a large percentage of tablet users would be served just as well by a device like the Nook as by Apple's iPad. And it's much more transportable. Just my opinion.
Possibly, I see the iPad trending down to those prices as component costs get cheaper over time.
I'm talking about HUDs three years before Apple will roll them out and you say I have no vision?
On the contrary, in 1989 I predicted portables would outsell desktops as soon as the price/performance ratio became favorable.
Five years later I predicted the top-selling device would become the one that combines the best of the telephone, the television, and the computer.
I bought my Apple stock in 1999, when the prevailing "wisdom" said the market was so bloated in its bubble I'd be lucky to break even.
In 2000 I predicted that Apple would switch to Intel.
"Old timer"? Age has few benefits, but one of them is perspective.
Let's reconvene in 2014 and see where all this lands...
I most often find that people who have a clear recollection of what they predicted in the past are bullshitting (... and what gives you the impression that Apple is rolling out a hud in 3 years).
You're the guy who is saying that tablets are limited... and then you mention huds... how about a tablet that is a hud.
You're the guy who is saying tablets are limited but then you say the future is the phone... huh?
You're the guy who is saying that people would rather drag around a laptop than a larger handheld device... talk about inconvenient.
To me your post looks like you are throwing darts at a product list.
Yes, it is inevitable that Apple will lose unit marketshare in the tablet category. There's a natural tendency in humans to get bored or not like the dominant thing. It really speaks to how incredibly dominant MS was with 95% or 98% OS share 10 years ago. If Apple sells a $200-300 iPad, maybe they are going for it, but as it stands now, with a $500 floor on iPads, they will lose marketshare to cheaper devices, be it from Android, webOS or Windows 8 tablets or spiffed up e-Ink readers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRulez
I'll go out on a limb here and predict that tablet sales, including iPad, will decline in a period shorter than the previous netbook dominance. If 2011 is The Year of the Tablet, that would mean decline by 2014 at the latest. There will always be a solid niche for tablets, such as in the medical field, factory floor management, and other workflows in which people are already used to working with one hand holding a clipboard. But their popularity as an end-user device will not sustain itself.
This is nice. I commend you on your willingness to sacrifice a limb. We all think we have humanity figured out.
The Pew data does suggest a few things. There won't be one device to rule them all. Households will have multiple devices. The laptop and desktop data wasn't combined to one or an overlap number provided to see what the penetration of PCs are. However, I do believe it is around 70% which means there would be considerable numbers of households with both laptops and desktops. Only notable thing is that laptop penetration in households will be greater than desktops soon (no duh). The big surprise is that the penetration for desktops and laptops is only at 57%, a lower number than I would have thought.
Based on this one puny little bit of information, I believe that tablets are to laptops and desktops as laptops were to desktops, with the potential for tablets to have greater penetration, with laptop and desktop penetration to wane a bit. Tablets will eventually grow in size (13" is coming, maybe even 15") and will be able to do 99% of what a desktop and laptop is able to do, and but more enjoyable and easier to do.
It's all in "addressable" market. PCs are indeed relatively hard to use and are not open to the entire population. Tablets on the other hand, especially the Apple model, are supposed to be easy to use: toddlers, centenarians, felines, etc.
We'll see.
Quote:
I'll go even further to suggest that their replacement will be mostly better phones, perhaps with HUDs (Apple has more than a few patents on that already), with a significant minority rediscovering the value of compact lightweight computers like the MacBook Air and the better netbooks.
Ugh. HUDs? In cars, probably, where it can be embedded into the windows and mirrors. Holographic or projector style displays from a phone? Not in the next decade. And I have half a mind to say never. It just seems ergonomically impractical, laden with visibility issues.
Quote:
It's not often that I quote anyone from Microsoft for anything more than lulz, but I think the MS VP two months ago was right: "The tablet of the future is a phone."
You forgot the "... a phone running Windows" part. I kid. He never said that.
Comments
i think my daughter is on her third Android in a year because of hardware issues.
Yeah, my four kids just had to have the latest roid. We are up to 7 roids to my one iPhone this year. Now three of the four kids want an iphone.
I assume this includes all of the £50 shitty Android 1.6 and 2.2 tablets with resistive screens that are selling in the bargain bin shops in the UK?
And all of these half price or less, unsubsidized, than iPhone sold here.
I still feel that Apple has to decrease their product cycle time at some point, or Apple has to change it up in some form.
/QUOTE]
Yea in time to come people will queue for an android phone.....but I don't see that coming ever.
Funny... my kids and their friends all want iPads, but will settle for iPod Touches. They're too young for phones (kindergarten and younger), but are amassing quite a few iOS apps they like that they'll probably be able to transfer to an iPhone someday.
Yes, they want the iPad too. They play COD Zombies on it interminably. Sounds like this game is about undead fish, but it turns out COD stands for Call of Duty, a popular game series. Wanting iPads is not mutually exclusive with wanting a cool Android phone, I guess. The 12 year old wants a Kindle also...
If you imagine that a wave of products that aren't iPad which will double the market for tablets in that region is somehow good for Apple, your imagination is far more active than my own.
I know that Android fans think the inevitable decline of the iPad is inevitable, but I am wondering why it hasn't happened yet, and doesn't look like happening this year. This year was the year of the HoneyComb, which was apparently a iPad OS killer, and the Playbook, apparently an iPad killer, and the 100 tablets which were al also iPad killers. And yet, it remains unbloodied and unbowed. 2012 will be the year of the next 100 tablets, honeycomb 1.2, and probably not the Playbook. I cant see Apple losing.
The iPod was also under threat and it's brand and low price points kept it safe. Apple have, unlike the iPhone, started low in price ( and yes given component costs: the iPad is cheap) and may go lower as their specialised factories come on line - they have spent 11B on something or other.
The iPod started expensive, and now protects all price points.
In the iPhone space I see them coming in a low-mid range this year, a cheap 3GS, and doing something "special" next year along with an expensive model. Apple needs an expensive model for two reasons: it probably needs to add LTE and NFC to one model, but most people wont need that; and the higher price point of the top end model can subsidise the lower entry models. If you sell that top model at a $100 premium, and 10% of your userbase buy that, you can afford to sell 20-30% of your stuff as cheaper low end models without effects on margin.
I am mistaking things?
Why don't I have RichL (the original poster to whom I was responding) address this.
Thanks for your (unneeded) input.
Sorry, I've come back to this thread very late.
Here's the link. The phone is on pre-pay and can be unlocked to work on any network. No contract.
a touch UI is a generic feature common among all smartphones. do you think that the phonemaker who first introduces touch gets to have the feature exclusive in perpetuity? also, smartphones run applications....is it that shocking that they would have an app store too? again a completely generic feature that you are suggesting android took from apple. not very persuasive. does it really bother you that much that android is activating more devices than iOS.
look it doesn't matter how many devices android or iOS activate. as long as they both do well and keep pushing the technological envelope it benefits everyone. apple makes the best hardware, bar none. iOS is a fantastic OS. but so is android, and i happen to like different features that both OS's have. android had better notifications and maps w/ navigation. iOS has the best music player and store ever! also the camera is much better on iPhone 4. i like windows phone too. they all offer something different and interesting...
yes, phones have all these features in common now.. but none of them had them before the iPhone. as for your comment about pushing technology, I agree, and of course innovation is great wherever it comes from. I like what windows did with windows phone 7, and webOS as well. I just find it funny to hear fandroids brag about thier system when it would not be here as we know it today were it not for apple (and eric schmitt's mole efforts while on the apple board).
That settles it. If someone here can read Tim Cook's mind, how can the rest of you argue?
It's not that hard. He speaks in regular english. All they talk about are expanding to more carriers, selling pre-paid models (no-contract models), and adopting TD-LTE. You know, basically the same questions analysts ask Apple every time during conference calls. Nary a word about lower end models or moving downmarket.
I'll go out on a limb here and predict that tablet sales, including iPad, will decline in a period shorter than the previous netbook dominance. If 2011 is The Year of the Tablet, that would mean decline by 2014 at the latest. There will always be a solid niche for tablets, such as in the medical field, factory floor management, and other workflows in which people are already used to working with one hand holding a clipboard. But their popularity as an end-user device will not sustain itself.
I wont go out on a limb and suggest that there will be more tablet sales than laptop sales in a few years. The future is not a "phone" because it obviously compliments that category. The tablet is probably an additional device. I have a laptop, tablet and e-reader and the phone. Owning some, or all of these, is common enough. Apple are not quite at the price point where they can make that inflection curve, but they will get there. An e-reader is not a tablet, and doesnt do what a tablet does. It would have been hopeless playing my video last night - on the other hand a tablet can do pretty much what a laptop does, although you do need a keybord to do it well.
I think you are down on tablets because Apple is winning the tablet war.
I wont go out on a limb and suggest that there will be more tablet sales than laptop sales in a few years. The future is not a "phone" because it obviously compliments that category. The tablet is probably an additional device. I have a laptop, tablet and e-reader and the phone. Owning some, or all of these, is common enough. Apple are not quite at the price point where they can make that inflection curve, but they will get there. An e-reader is not a tablet, and doesnt do what a tablet does. It would have been hopeless playing my video last night - on the other hand a tablet can do pretty much what a laptop does, although you do need a keybord to do it well.
I think you are down on tablets because Apple is winning the tablet war.
I think MacRulez is down on tablets because he has no vision.
He's the guy who, in 1989, said that Mac portables won't take off because they're cumbersome and slow.
An e-reader is not a tablet, and doesnt do what a tablet does. It would have been hopeless playing my video last night - on the other hand a tablet can do pretty much what a laptop does, although you do need a keybord to do it well.
But some e-readers, like the Barnes & Noble Nook Color, do most of the common tasks a full-fledged tablet does. Besides reading magazines and books, my wife uses it for her email and general web-browsing, looking up recipes and researching med info for her clients. And she enjoys listening to Pandora while reading. My son loaded a couple of games (AngryBirds was one) to it that he enjoys more than she does.
I think perhaps a large percentage of tablet users would be served just as well by a device like the Nook as by Apple's iPad. And it's much more transportable. Just my opinion.
But some e-readers, like the Barnes & Noble Nook Color, do most of the common tasks a full-fledged tablet does. Besides reading magazines and books, my wife uses it for her email and general web-browsing, looking up recipes and researching med info for her clients. And she enjoys listening to Pandora while reading. My son loaded a couple of games (AngryBirds was one) to it that he enjoys more than she does.
I think perhaps a large percentage of tablet users would be served just as well by a device like the Nook as by Apple's iPad. And it's much more transportable. Just my opinion.
Possibly, I see the iPad trending down to those prices as component costs get cheaper over time.
I'm talking about HUDs three years before Apple will roll them out and you say I have no vision?
On the contrary, in 1989 I predicted portables would outsell desktops as soon as the price/performance ratio became favorable.
Five years later I predicted the top-selling device would become the one that combines the best of the telephone, the television, and the computer.
I bought my Apple stock in 1999, when the prevailing "wisdom" said the market was so bloated in its bubble I'd be lucky to break even.
In 2000 I predicted that Apple would switch to Intel.
"Old timer"? Age has few benefits, but one of them is perspective.
Let's reconvene in 2014 and see where all this lands...
I most often find that people who have a clear recollection of what they predicted in the past are bullshitting (... and what gives you the impression that Apple is rolling out a hud in 3 years).
You're the guy who is saying that tablets are limited... and then you mention huds... how about a tablet that is a hud.
You're the guy who is saying tablets are limited but then you say the future is the phone... huh?
You're the guy who is saying that people would rather drag around a laptop than a larger handheld device... talk about inconvenient.
To me your post looks like you are throwing darts at a product list.
I'll go out on a limb here and predict that tablet sales, including iPad, will decline in a period shorter than the previous netbook dominance. If 2011 is The Year of the Tablet, that would mean decline by 2014 at the latest. There will always be a solid niche for tablets, such as in the medical field, factory floor management, and other workflows in which people are already used to working with one hand holding a clipboard. But their popularity as an end-user device will not sustain itself.
This is nice. I commend you on your willingness to sacrifice a limb. We all think we have humanity figured out.
The Pew data does suggest a few things. There won't be one device to rule them all. Households will have multiple devices. The laptop and desktop data wasn't combined to one or an overlap number provided to see what the penetration of PCs are. However, I do believe it is around 70% which means there would be considerable numbers of households with both laptops and desktops. Only notable thing is that laptop penetration in households will be greater than desktops soon (no duh). The big surprise is that the penetration for desktops and laptops is only at 57%, a lower number than I would have thought.
Based on this one puny little bit of information, I believe that tablets are to laptops and desktops as laptops were to desktops, with the potential for tablets to have greater penetration, with laptop and desktop penetration to wane a bit. Tablets will eventually grow in size (13" is coming, maybe even 15") and will be able to do 99% of what a desktop and laptop is able to do, and but more enjoyable and easier to do.
It's all in "addressable" market. PCs are indeed relatively hard to use and are not open to the entire population. Tablets on the other hand, especially the Apple model, are supposed to be easy to use: toddlers, centenarians, felines, etc.
We'll see.
I'll go even further to suggest that their replacement will be mostly better phones, perhaps with HUDs (Apple has more than a few patents on that already), with a significant minority rediscovering the value of compact lightweight computers like the MacBook Air and the better netbooks.
Ugh. HUDs? In cars, probably, where it can be embedded into the windows and mirrors. Holographic or projector style displays from a phone? Not in the next decade. And I have half a mind to say never. It just seems ergonomically impractical, laden with visibility issues.
It's not often that I quote anyone from Microsoft for anything more than lulz, but I think the MS VP two months ago was right: "The tablet of the future is a phone."
You forgot the "... a phone running Windows" part. I kid. He never said that.
I'm talking about HUDs three years before Apple will roll them out and you say I have no vision?
On the contrary, in 1989 I predicted portables would outsell desktops as soon as the price/performance ratio became favorable.
Five years later I predicted the top-selling device would become the one that combines the best of the telephone, the television, and the computer.
I bought my Apple stock in 1999, when the prevailing "wisdom" said the market was so bloated in its bubble I'd be lucky to break even.
In 2000 I predicted that Apple would switch to Intel.
"Old timer"? Age has few benefits, but one of them is perspective.
Let's reconvene in 2014 and see where all this lands...
Lets hope you make it to 2014.
( I jest, I jest).