IDC bumps 2011 tablet forecast to 53M as Apple?s iPad 2 dominates

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 84
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    Iphone sales always fall off the table after the announcement of a new model, which directly contradicts your point.



    Link? The only model where I saw that happen clearly on the data I've seen was for the original model. The data in that graph is somewhat coarse though, so if you have something with finer granularity I'd be interested in seeing it. On this graph the IPhone-3 sales actually start to rise before the new model. The 3+3GS sales dip very slightly before the 4, but that could just be due to supply of 3s drying up.



    Edit: deleted image - solipsism beat me to it
  • Reply 22 of 84
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Link? The only model where I saw that happen clearly on the data I've seen was for the original model. The data in that graph is somewhat coarse though, so if you have something with finer granularity I'd be interested in seeing it. On this graph the IPhone-3 sales actually start to rise before the new model. The 3+3GS sales dip very slightly before the 4, but that could just be due to supply of 3s drying up.



    Edit: deleted image - solipsism beat me to it



    The major drop off in sales from the original iPhone wasn't from people not buying it, but because Apple had stopped production and you couldn't buy it. I, NasserAE and countless others sold our used, original iPhones for more than we bought them for because of this drop in availability.
  • Reply 23 of 84
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Link? The only model where I saw that happen clearly on the data I've seen was for the original model. The data in that graph is somewhat coarse though, so if you have something with finer granularity I'd be interested in seeing it. On this graph the IPhone-3 sales actually start to rise before the new model. The 3+3GS sales dip very slightly before the 4, but that could just be due to supply of 3s drying up.



    Edit: deleted image - solipsism beat me to it



    The OP stated that iPhone sales don't slow down going into a new model. While there are not a lot of data points, the data points all point in one direction, and that is a slow-down in the last few weeks or month before the day of the new iPhone launch. I don't need a link - I've been alive for the past 4 years in June when you practically couldn't find the old model (iPhone, iPhone 3G). Something everyone "knew" all of a sudden becomes in question because I guess it now points against something everyone wants to be true? That the iPad 1 sales were not impacted by its phasing out? OKeeeeee
  • Reply 24 of 84
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    The major drop off in sales from the original iPhone wasn't from people not buying it, but because Apple had stopped production and you couldn't buy it. I, NasserAE and countless others sold our used, original iPhones for more than we bought them for because of this drop in availability.



    Exactly. It was never a question of why it happened, the OP just said that iPhone sales didn't dry up. They did!
  • Reply 25 of 84
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    The sales might drop after the announcement (which we can't really know, only speculate), but we can see trends that show even after a year on the market the sales are still strong, even growing in sales despite being last year's tech and history of annual Summer releases.
    For Q2-2011 the iPhone sales were 18.6M.



    By the way your chart shows zero examples of the bolded text above, but 4 examples of sales dropping during the summer. This year was the only year that Q2 was better than Q1, and I think we can all agree that that was thanks to Verizon.



    Edit: I'm unclear, anyway, on what these quarters are? Are they calendar quarters, or Apple's fiscal quarters? How in 2010 was Q3 lower than Q2, which was lower than Q1? Was the ramp of iP4 that poor in Q3?
  • Reply 26 of 84
    alfiejralfiejr Posts: 1,524member
    IDC reports OEM shipments as if they were actual sales. of course they are not. and that is what their market totals are based on. so they're junk numbers.



    Apple just reports actual sales. i haven't seen any other OEM report of actual tablet sales to consumers/businesses. gee, i wonder why.



    IDC is the same outfit that predicts Windows Phone 7 will overtake the iPhone in sales in two years. while also getting paid by MS for services of some kind. gee, i wonder why.
  • Reply 27 of 84
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    By the way your chart shows zero examples of the bolded text above, but 4 examples of sales dropping during the summer. This year was the only year that Q2 was better than Q1, and I think we can all agree that that was thanks to Verizon.



    Edit: I'm unclear, anyway, on what these quarters are? Are they calendar quarters, or Apple's fiscal quarters? How in 2010 was Q3 lower than Q2, which was lower than Q1? Was the ramp of iP4 that poor in Q3?



    1) Those are fiscal quarters. You can ascertain that by looking at Q3-2007 when the iPhone went on sale in the last weekend in June.



    2) The colours represent each new iPhone model. As the chart indicates the quarters the iPhone 3GS was prime increased since their first full quarter (Q4-2009) of sales, it didn't decline with each subsequent quarter because it was less new. It even grew very slightly by 150k units for the quarter following the holiday quarter, which is impressive.



    3) So for the iPhone 4's reign as prime they've increased their unit sales by over 2 million each consecutive quarter, even as the iPad 2 came out. Based on the growth in the smartphone sector I wouldn't be surprised if they best it by another 2 million units for fiscal Q3-2011.
  • Reply 28 of 84
    I really don't understand these analysts. They are making all of these 'matter of fact' statements that are purely based on their, more than often, ridiculous projections. I find it difficult to read these articles without a little smirk and a head shake.
  • Reply 29 of 84
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Alfiejr View Post


    IDC reports OEM shipments as if they were actual sales. of course they are not. and that is what their market totals are based on. so they're junk numbers.



    Apple just reports actual sales. i haven't seen any other OEM report of actual tablet sales to consumers/businesses. gee, i wonder why.



    IDC is the same outfit that predicts Windows Phone 7 will overtake the iPhone in sales in two years. while also getting paid by MS for services of some kind. gee, i wonder why.



    I realize it's easy to assume that IDC is intentionally boosting Android/MS for nefarious or financial reasons, but it isn't necessarily the case. Back during my misspent youth as a physics grad student I took a course in cosmology, and I still remember how, on the very first day, the professor made several heroic assumptions about the universe. I remember a guy asking why we made these assumptions, and the professor replied that we had to, if we didn't we really couldn't get anywhere at all. The entire field of cosmology is built on these approximations and if the universe is radically different than that then we're just stuffed.



    Often analysts end up making similarly huge assumptions, such as that product shipped is a good indication of product sold, or that Nokia will carry their market share over to WP7, and I suspect it's for the same reason. If they didn't make them then they wouldn't be able to do anything at all.



    The really bad thing is when they make these huge assumptions and don't note it anywhere in the analysis.
  • Reply 30 of 84
    stourquestourque Posts: 354member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive have iPad-equivalent or better hardware, more connectivity options, good build quality, comparable battery life, less expensive add-ons, and yet still manage to meet and/or significantly undercut Apple's iPad2 prices. Dedicated Apple fans may say they can't match the iOS experience. Buyers of those "other" tablets probably don't know that (or don't care if they do) considering the price/feature differences. And if you throw the Nook Color in there, which IMO serves the most common needs for most surfers and readers at just $249, and Apple's higher price is hard to justify for some buyers.



    Nice try.



    Oh I get it. These consumers love their devices so much they can't put them down, and they don't want to leave the house for fear of being stolen. This is why no one ever sees one of these devices in actual use.
  • Reply 31 of 84
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    They may be selling better than many of us might expect. The Samsung Tab 10.1, Asus Transformer and Toshiba Thrive ...



    I think we can safely dismiss the Toshiba Thrive seeing as it hasn't even launched yet, can't imagine vast numbers of people pre-ordered a tablet that they've never seen and has never been reviewed in a major paper.



    Admittedly it may have sold as many units as the Samsung 10.1 or the Asus Transformer
  • Reply 32 of 84
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    Yeah, you said "You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad (although this would inconsistent with historic sales trends of iPhones and iPod Touch)" which is patently false. Iphone sales always fall off the table after the announcement of a new model, which directly contradicts your point.



    Nice trick to take part of my quote and use it as ammo. But let's take my key point in its entirety:



    "You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad (...), but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad."



    I will add back the iPhone reference later. This main point above is absolutely irrefutable because iPad2 was announced on March 2. An announcement at this date cannot possibly account for slower sales in Jan and Feb, unless a time machine was involved. That is why I wrote that "anticipation of iPad2" can possibly be construed as cause but not the actual announcement.



    But even the anticipation of iPad2 is questionable as a cause because no one, absolutely no one but Apple, knew when the announcement was forthcoming. As for the history of iPhone announcement, etc., I think there is enough data here for you to properly understand history. So no need for me to further embarrass you.
  • Reply 33 of 84
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Stourque View Post


    Nice try.



    Oh I get it. These consumers love their devices so much they can't put them down, and they don't want to leave the house for fear of being stolen. This is why no one ever sees one of these devices in actual use.



    The near total absence of Android tablets is indeed astounding. I was in the San Jose airport over Christmas, waiting for a plane to take us to Porto Jimenez. There was 20+ people in the small room, and 8 iPads. Sure, that was before Xoom, Playbook, etc. emerged. Well, I have been traveling regularly since then and, based on my observations, iPads are often equal to laptops in numbers in airports. And I still have not seen a non-iPad tablet yet in the airports of Houston, Chicago, New York, Toronto, Ottawa, Seattle. Have not seen them in Starbucks. Pretty much the only place I have seen them is inside a glass case in Best Buy.
  • Reply 34 of 84
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    Nice trick to take part of my quote and use it as ammo. But let's take my key point in its entirety:



    "You can argue anticipation of iPad 2 slowed sales of iPad (...), but you simply cannot say release of iPad 2 caused people to stop buying iPad."



    I will add back the iPhone reference later. This main point above is absolutely irrefutable because iPad2 was announced on March 2. An announcement at this date cannot possibly account for slower sales in Jan and Feb, unless a time machine was involved. That is why I wrote that "anticipation of iPad2" can possibly be construed as cause but not the actual announcement.



    But even the anticipation of iPad2 is questionable as a cause because no one, absolutely no one but Apple, knew when the announcement was forthcoming. As for the history of iPhone announcement, etc., I think there is enough data here for you to properly understand history. So no need for me to further embarrass you.



    It wasn't a trick. It's a shame when you put something down on paper, get called for it, and still try to explain it away.



    Oh cmon don't stop embarrassing me! You're so good at it! Ha!
  • Reply 35 of 84
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 21,291member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    I think we can safely dismiss the Toshiba Thrive seeing as it hasn't even launched yet. . .



    I watched two go out the door within a few minutes today at Office Depot. Best Buy also had it featured on the front page of their Sunday flyer. But agreed it's not likely to have made much of a market impact yet. I listed it simply as an example of a full size tablet with as good or better hardware and connectivity than Apple's product, but still retailing for less.
  • Reply 36 of 84
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    I watched two go out the door within a few minutes today at Office Depot. Best Buy also had it featured on the front page of their Sunday flyer. But agreed it's not likely to have made much of a market impact yet. I listed it simply as an example of a full size tablet with as good or better hardware and connectivity than Apple's product, but still retailing for less.



    As good or better?



    Weight 130g more.

    Depth 16mm to the iPad-2s 9mm



    The CPU, memory etc are comparable I'll grant you, but the physical specs are way way worse. The only Android tablet that genuinely competes right now on specs is the 10.1 Samsung.
  • Reply 37 of 84
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post


    Save iWeb, sign the petition http://www.PetitionOnline.com/appleweb/petition.html



    If you're a fan of iWeb then please consider signing the petition. Thank you.

  • Reply 38 of 84
    brucepbrucep Posts: 2,823member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    In spite of a seasonal drop in total tablet shipments in the first quarter of 2011, IDC raised its estimates for 2011 shipments to 53.5 million on the belief that Apple?s iPad 2 will continue to carry the tablet market.



    Research group International Data Corp. issued its Worldwide Quarterly Media Tracker and eReader Tracker report for the March quarter last Friday, noting that overall shipments fell short of the predictions. The report emphasized the iPad?s success in the tablet space, noting that ?Apple?s iPad and the recently introduced iPad 2 continue to dominate the media tablet market, as other vendors have had a more difficult time finding market acceptance for their products.?



    But, it wasn?t all good news for the Cupertino, Calif.-based company. According to IDC, the number of Apple shipments in the first quarter fell ?well below expectations.? The group attributed the miss to ?supply-chain hiccups? and the typical ?pre-release announcement of the iPad 2 several weeks before availability.?



    Apple has had difficulty meeting the overwhelming demand for the iPad 2. The company ended last quarter with a substantial backlog, though lead times for the device on its online store recently improved to just 3-5 days, down from estimates of 1-2 weeks.



    The company sold 4.69 million iPads in the March quarter, short of Wall Street consensus expectations of 6.2 million. Given IDC?s estimate of 7.2 million media tablets sold in the first quarter, Apple?s touchscreen tablet made up 65 percent of the market, down from 73 percent share last quarter.



    Tablets running Google?s Android mobile operating system grew to a 34 percent market share on a sequential increase of 8.2 points. On the e-reader side, Barnes & Noble?s Nook Color dethroned Amazon?s Kindle to become the top-selling e-reader for the first time.



    The report noted that the iPad?s primary competitors, Samsung and Motorola, have found ?moderate success? by focusing on preexisting distribution partnerships with mobile phone retailers. However, consumer reluctance to sign up for 3G and 4G data plans for tablets has stunted sales for the mobile handset makers.



    "Like the PC market, Media Tablets had a bit of a challenging quarter in Q1, as concerns about general macroeconomic issues and the post-holiday letdown took a toll on demand," said Bob O'Donnell, IDC Vice President, Clients and Displays. "We expect the rest of the year to be much stronger, but we believe vendors who continue to focus on the telco channel for distribution will face serious challenges."



    Despite the first-quarter hiccups in the tablet market, IDC remained confident in continued growth of the industry, raising its projection for the year from 50.4 million units to 53.5 million units. "Although media tablet sales were not as high as expected in 1Q11 due to slower consumer demand, overall economic conditions, and supply-chain constraints, we believe with the entrance of competitive new devices in second half of 2011, the market will sell close to 53 million units for the year and continue to grow long-term," said research analyst Jennifer Song.



    Competition in the market is expected to heat up even further over the next 12 months as a variety of new tablets join the fray. HP just released the webOS-based TouchPad, while Dell is collaborating with Microsoft on Windows tablets. Meanwhile, Apple is expected to deliver a new iPad, with recent reports suggesting that it will have a higher-resolution display.



    55 million

    wow thats a lot of ipads





    9
  • Reply 39 of 84
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by brucep View Post


    55 million

    wow thats a lot of ipads



    Around half a square kilometer of screen.
  • Reply 40 of 84
    alfiejralfiejr Posts: 1,524member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    I realize it's easy to assume that IDC is intentionally boosting Android/MS for nefarious or financial reasons, but it isn't necessarily the case. Back during my misspent youth as a physics grad student I took a course in cosmology, and I still remember how, on the very first day, the professor made several heroic assumptions about the universe. I remember a guy asking why we made these assumptions, and the professor replied that we had to, if we didn't we really couldn't get anywhere at all. The entire field of cosmology is built on these approximations and if the universe is radically different than that then we're just stuffed.



    Often analysts end up making similarly huge assumptions, such as that product shipped is a good indication of product sold, or that Nokia will carry their market share over to WP7, and I suspect it's for the same reason. If they didn't make them then they wouldn't be able to do anything at all.



    The really bad thing is when they make these huge assumptions and don't note it anywhere in the analysis.



    there is no question IDC provides paid services to MS, that's a fact. eg, see this EULA, search for "IDC". they provide financial info for a lot of MS services. i have to assume they get paid for that.



    http://explore.live.com/microsoft-se...ement?ref=none



    their conflict of interest is blatant. but web "journalism" ethics are so pathetic anyway that no on calls them out for it.
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