46% of smartphone buyers prefer Apple's iOS, 32% choose Google Android

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 69
    shompashompa Posts: 343member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacInsider2 View Post


    It's simple, Android will eventually swarm over the iphone. It's already happening, having 50 Android phones in every cell store in the USA quickly overshadows the two iphones sitting in the corner. Walk into any Verizon store and you will see how huge android is compared to the iphone.



    Iphone isn't dead, but it will be segmented to a smaller and smaller share of the market ... eventually. Unless they get the iphone on every USA carrier FAST.



    Market share does not matter.

    Average Sale Price matter.



    Apple makes over 50 billion in iPhones sales today. That is pretty good.
  • Reply 22 of 69
    addicted44addicted44 Posts: 826member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    These numbers are great, but unconvincing. The problem is that Apple has not had sales figures that match up against these intentions from what we've seen from Nielsen. Look at the 50% for June-10. If you actually look at Nielsen's sales numbers for the 90 days after June-10, Apple never even got close to 50% of the smartphone market - in fact they never even passed Android for those 3 months.



    Unfortunately I'd have to conclude that this survey has either a significant sample bias, or some sort of methodological problem with its questions.



    The reason is simple. The iPhone is not available to everybody. Additionally, a lot of people who get Android are not smartphone customers. They are due for a free upgrade, walk into a store to get a feature phone like they have always owned but walk outmwith a free android instead.
  • Reply 23 of 69
    brutus009brutus009 Posts: 356member
    This article isn't about sales or which OS is better, it's about brand loyalty. Apple has it.
  • Reply 24 of 69
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DaveMcM76 View Post


    This survey is all about OS preference which may not be at all related to what people actually buy... 46% may well prefer iOS but then go on to buy Android or some other phone due to a factor beyond the OS - my guess would be price is a key here...



    If I had to express a preference between a Ferrari or a Ford I'd choose Ferrari.... doesn't mean I'm ever likely to buy one...



    That's what I thought at first, but looking at the survey's press release itself they claim it's purchase intent and not preference.
  • Reply 25 of 69
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Does either of you know how Nielsen comes up with its numbers?



    Nielsen will be getting its numbers from a survey too, though likely a larger one than this since they have the biggest consumer panel in the US. Neilsen's market penetration numbers very closely match ComScore's for iOS and Android, so I'm willing to assume that their sample is representative. There's some difference between the two for WinMo & RIM, which is probably because those two platforms are very concentrated in a few demographics and geographic areas - so hard to get good sample.



    Also Nielsen's numbers are retrospective, not prospective - meaning there's less potential for methdological problems in the way that they're phrasing the questions. There's a big difference between 'What phone do you want to buy' and 'What phone do you plan to buy', but there's really no way to misconstrue 'What phone did you last buy'.
  • Reply 26 of 69
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shompa View Post


    Market share does not matter.

    Average Sale Price matter.



    Apple makes over 50 billion in iPhones sales today. That is pretty good.



    50 billion? I think you're combining the other iOS devices in on that figure. Also, please provide citation. Thanks.



    P.s. Yes, you are off: http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/ar...iOS/1304002204
  • Reply 27 of 69
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by iStud View Post


    But the only data point you pick happens to be the one that does not follow the trend! That is the one that is obviously biased. All the other points seem to follow a credible trend.



    I'm just saying that the raw numbers are clearly off either due to sample bias or because consumers are reporting preference and not purchase intent - in spite of the survey claiming to be the latter.



    I picked the number that was most obviously out because it's clearest in that case, but you can see it with all the 2011 numbers. Apple hasn't outsold android in 2011 in the US - they've done really well but not THAT well.



    The trends in these numbers may well reflect underlying trends, we do see a big increase in Apple preference for 2011 that reflects the increase in actual purchasing that did take place. I'm saying that we shouldn't expect to see Apple at 48% of smartphone sales for the next quarter.
  • Reply 28 of 69
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacInsider2 View Post


    50 billion? I think you're combining the other iOS devices in on that figure. Also, please provide citation. Thanks.



    P.s. Yes, you are off: http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/ar...iOS/1304002204



    They made $22.7billion in iPhone revenue over the last two quarters, $16billion, in the previous two quarters to that. Given that trend we give $28billion for the next two quarters, which would actually mean that he would be right for Apple's fiscal 2011.

    It's not what he said of course, but by his standards that's pretty accurate.
  • Reply 29 of 69
    lamewinglamewing Posts: 742member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacInsider2 View Post


    For me, yes. I am curious to see it and play with Windows Phone 7. But but have no interest in helping MS take over another market and stifle innovation as it historically does.



    I am thrilled MS missed the cellular boat and hope to see MS fail in ever achieving much market share. Fact is, whenever MS gets a monopoly they use that to insert customization that protect their market share rather than continue to innovate.





    Times have changed. The mobile market isn't the same as the PC market of the past. MS isn't going to take over the mobile market. I seriously doubt any one mobile OS will take a majority share of the market. Plus, market share doesn't mean anything. Profits are what matters.
  • Reply 30 of 69
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lamewing View Post


    Times have changed. The mobile market isn't the same as the PC market of the past. MS isn't going to take over the mobile market. I seriously doubt any one mobile OS will take a majority share of the market. Plus, market share doesn't mean anything. Profits are what matters.



    Android is selling 49% of US smartphones currently, and has been for all 2011. I'd say it's pretty plausible that they'll end up with 51% of the total smartphone population at some point - so a narrow majority.



    Nothing like the 90%+ that windows hit of course.
  • Reply 31 of 69
    istudistud Posts: 193member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    What other points follow a credible trend? The only meaningful trend that I can see is what people are actually buying. On that, the surveys have been consistently off. But maybe I missed something you spotted?



    I was talking about the graph shown, and the clear spike that the Jun2010 shows. But, yet again, I understand data analysis and statistics, and obviously you don't. While what you say may be true, it does not refer to the graph, neither to what I pointed out. So . . .
  • Reply 32 of 69
    istudistud Posts: 193member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    I'm just saying that the raw numbers are clearly off either due to sample bias or because consumers are reporting preference and not purchase intent - in spite of the survey claiming to be the latter.



    I picked the number that was most obviously out because it's clearest in that case, but you can see it with all the 2011 numbers. Apple hasn't outsold android in 2011 in the US - they've done really well but not THAT well.



    The trends in these numbers may well reflect underlying trends, we do see a big increase in Apple preference for 2011 that reflects the increase in actual purchasing that did take place. I'm saying that we shouldn't expect to see Apple at 48% of smartphone sales for the next quarter.



    Of course! You are correct. And anyone mistaking purchase intentions with market share, has obviously some issues to solve! What they show is brand presence. Perhaps if you have the data, you could show a correlation graph between actual market share and purchase intentions. If the correlation is low then it means that these surveys are useless, but if there is a correlation, even if the market share numbers are smaller as you suggest, larger purchase intention may correlate with larger market share, in a proportional manner. I don't know. That would be more valuable than just pointing out that the numbers are different. Which of course they are expected to be... I hope I make sense.
  • Reply 33 of 69
    msimpsonmsimpson Posts: 452member
    All these "surveys" and "statistics" about iOS and Android sales or "planned sales" really get old. The only thing that matters to Apple is the Q2 numbers they will be reporting tomorrow. There sure are a lot of "analysts" making a living off of reporting nonsense and speculation.
  • Reply 34 of 69
    lamewinglamewing Posts: 742member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Android is selling 49% of US smartphones currently, and has been for all 2011. I'd say it's pretty plausible that they'll end up with 51% of the total smartphone population at some point - so a narrow majority.



    Nothing like the 90%+ that windows hit of course.



    That is assuming that Apple isn't able to win an injunction against HTC and potentially all of Android in the U.S. Hardly the entire world, but it could change things here. If Apple wins they have the option of licensing the tech to all Android manufacturers, or just saying NO!!!!. Apple doesn't need the extra cash, so they can play hardball and still come out ahead. If this were to happen (long shot), MS would have the opportunity to add SO many new Windows Phone customers. Why? Some people just don't like the iPhone, some don't want to have the most popular device, some don't like Apple, etc.
  • Reply 35 of 69
    matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cnocbui View Post


    This flies in the face of a previous AI article:http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...for_apple.html



    So, people are not actually doing what this survey suggests they should. I think cloudgazer is correct, there is probably some inherent bias in the survey.



    I can also see a lot of people saying one thing in answer to a survey then changing their minds when they actually come to pay for a device and find out how over priced an IP4 is. With my provider, a Samsung Galaxy S II is €470 and a IP4 is €589. The SGSII is quite obviously much better value. Then if you look downmarket a bit, the cheapest iOS offering is an iPhone 3GS 8GB Black at €469 while you could get a Samsung S5570 Galaxy Mini for €120.



    I know in the local high school Android phones are propagating like wildfire while iOS devices are present in single digits.



    And I remembered some people here, not so long ago, defended Android as not being cheaper than iPhone. hey hey
  • Reply 36 of 69
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by iStud View Post


    Perhaps if you have the data, you could show a correlation graph between actual market share and purchase intentions.



    Alas I only have the public data from Nielsen, given in their last press release. Which certainly suggest a correlation is plausible, but there isn't really enough data there for anything conclusive.



  • Reply 37 of 69
    We kinda knew that was coming once Verzon got the iphone. There were quite a few people who went to Android because that's what was available on Verizon. Now their contracts are coming up and I'd say many have switched to iPhones. The trend will likely continue with people buying new phones or switching from a blackberry. If apple does come up with a low cost iPhone that will push the trend even higher.



    Android appeals to some, but not most consumers
  • Reply 38 of 69
    irontedironted Posts: 129member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Nielsen will be getting its numbers from a survey too, though likely a larger one than this since they have the biggest consumer panel in the US. Neilsen's market penetration numbers very closely match ComScore's for iOS and Android, so I'm willing to assume that their sample is representative. There's some difference between the two for WinMo & RIM, which is probably because those two platforms are very concentrated in a few demographics and geographic areas - so hard to get good sample.



    Also Nielsen's numbers are retrospective, not prospective - meaning there's less potential for methdological problems in the way that they're phrasing the questions. There's a big difference between 'What phone do you want to buy' and 'What phone do you plan to buy', but there's really no way to misconstrue 'What phone did you last buy'.



    Hi Cloudgazer! I think your comments are the best and most relevant on AI.
  • Reply 39 of 69
    irontedironted Posts: 129member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post


    And I remembered some people here, not so long ago, defended Android as not being cheaper than iPhone. hey hey



    Droidtards should get lost! All Droid phones are made of cheap-looking plastic! They have no taste! The Vic guy dares to compare SJ to the Big Brother? He himself is a former Microsoft exec. Bill Gates is the Big Brother, not SJ.
  • Reply 40 of 69
    irontedironted Posts: 129member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by FreeRange View Post


    It is obvious that only Wintards are buying windows 7 phones as this company is now irrelevant in the mobile market but the clowns using them haven't figured it out yet.



    Wintards, just like Droidtards, are tasteless!
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