I agree that Windows won't lose its unit share dominance ....
Nothing lasts forever.
I think that 30 or 40 years from now, the 2010s will be remembered (in the history of computing) as the decade in which the iPad turned computing on its head by moving content into the cloud. It's not clear to me that Microsoft will survive the decade.
I agree that Windows won't lose its unit share dominance, but MS and Windows-based vendors do need to worry about the move to OS-agnostic computing in the Enterprise. Web browsers are the most used app and that usage is ever increasing. If Apple puts out a cheaper Mac or Chrome OS gets a foothold Windows could easily be hamstrung, regulated to the middle tier of sales, and potentially make less profit YoY for MS which would negatively affect shareholders.
I agree with that. Its just that there are a lot of custom made legacy apps that enterprise users will move away from at a very slow pace.
When they do, many will, or would be smart to look for platform agnostic solutions.
I'm with you in thinking that Lion may very well be the final OS X release. However, I seriously doubt the idea that OS 11 is going to kill Windows. Apple would have to radically change their business model and release OS 11 to run on commodity PCs. Furthermore it would also require OS 11 to natively handle all of the MS proprietary code such as Visual Basic, DirectX, etc. There is WAY too much software on the market for Windows to simply go away.
Now, if Apple were to license other hardware vendors to sell OS 11 compatible systems... Especially if it were some of the big players like Dell, then I would expect to see Apple take a HUGE bite out of MS core business but even this is not some kind of death knell for MS. Software developers are going to have to start writing more of their apps to run natively on OS 11 (or whatever) before MS has to start seriously worrying about their future.
All that said, I can't say I would be disappointed to see MS taken down a peg or three. Competition however would be really good for the consumer and probably drive both MS and Apple to even more innovation resulting in better products down the line.
I think you're reading my earlier comments in a different light than what I intended.
Windows has been a load of cr*p that takes care of legacies of hardware and software that date back to the early 90s. It is the textbook example defining "spaghetti code" and "bloatware." I feel that consumers don't want to put up with the TCO of running a Windows system, and enterprises are learning that Windows isn't the be-all end-all for IT needs.
Whatever supersedes OS X will be something that MS could never touch in eight years, it will be something that technologists and consumers alike will recognize for the advancement it will be, something that renders Windows as we know it today as a meaningless echo of times gone by.
I don't see any licensing in the next 20 years, though. It will be a time where Apple leads the way and others will jump on board with their own imitations, leaving MS behind as the enterprise weans its way from continual licensing of bloated software from a crumbling behemoth. I feel that by that time MS will be selling only different versions of Office and let Windows stagnate as fewer and fewer mfrs opt out of the hideous licensing fees.
Comments
I agree that Windows won't lose its unit share dominance ....
Nothing lasts forever.
I think that 30 or 40 years from now, the 2010s will be remembered (in the history of computing) as the decade in which the iPad turned computing on its head by moving content into the cloud. It's not clear to me that Microsoft will survive the decade.
...moving content into the cloud...
That won't even be true seventy years from now.
It's not clear to me that Microsoft will survive the decade.
They have at least three decades left.
I agree that Windows won't lose its unit share dominance, but MS and Windows-based vendors do need to worry about the move to OS-agnostic computing in the Enterprise. Web browsers are the most used app and that usage is ever increasing. If Apple puts out a cheaper Mac or Chrome OS gets a foothold Windows could easily be hamstrung, regulated to the middle tier of sales, and potentially make less profit YoY for MS which would negatively affect shareholders.
I agree with that. Its just that there are a lot of custom made legacy apps that enterprise users will move away from at a very slow pace.
When they do, many will, or would be smart to look for platform agnostic solutions.
Keep in mind America is a day behind Australia. !
Or even further behind in some respects!
I'm with you in thinking that Lion may very well be the final OS X release. However, I seriously doubt the idea that OS 11 is going to kill Windows. Apple would have to radically change their business model and release OS 11 to run on commodity PCs. Furthermore it would also require OS 11 to natively handle all of the MS proprietary code such as Visual Basic, DirectX, etc. There is WAY too much software on the market for Windows to simply go away.
Now, if Apple were to license other hardware vendors to sell OS 11 compatible systems... Especially if it were some of the big players like Dell, then I would expect to see Apple take a HUGE bite out of MS core business but even this is not some kind of death knell for MS. Software developers are going to have to start writing more of their apps to run natively on OS 11 (or whatever) before MS has to start seriously worrying about their future.
All that said, I can't say I would be disappointed to see MS taken down a peg or three. Competition however would be really good for the consumer and probably drive both MS and Apple to even more innovation resulting in better products down the line.
I think you're reading my earlier comments in a different light than what I intended.
Windows has been a load of cr*p that takes care of legacies of hardware and software that date back to the early 90s. It is the textbook example defining "spaghetti code" and "bloatware." I feel that consumers don't want to put up with the TCO of running a Windows system, and enterprises are learning that Windows isn't the be-all end-all for IT needs.
Whatever supersedes OS X will be something that MS could never touch in eight years, it will be something that technologists and consumers alike will recognize for the advancement it will be, something that renders Windows as we know it today as a meaningless echo of times gone by.
I don't see any licensing in the next 20 years, though. It will be a time where Apple leads the way and others will jump on board with their own imitations, leaving MS behind as the enterprise weans its way from continual licensing of bloated software from a crumbling behemoth. I feel that by that time MS will be selling only different versions of Office and let Windows stagnate as fewer and fewer mfrs opt out of the hideous licensing fees.