Make that 74.1%. I'm a "phone switcher waiter" for sure - but not to a 15 month (or more) old model.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostface147
Why can't these people poll millions? A couple hundred isn't anything.
Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44
200 can be a sufficient sample size. What is more important is finding a sample that is representative of the population. That determines teh quality of a poll, and not the 200 number (of course, the more the better, but my point is that you don't need millions...a couple of hundred, can be enough).
Given the wide variety of demographics in urban, rural and suburban phone markets around this diverse country of phone users and wanters, you'd likely need a sample size of at least 1500-2000 controlled on a number of variables to get data anywhere close to the "95% confidence range" for being an accurate predictor.
Everyone has such a hard on for 4g. Every 4g user I know says the battery life is just awful right now. Coupled with the extra charges for 4g, just don't get why people care at this point. Give me solid and universal 3g speed (which we don't have especially on AT&T) over an immature 4g any day.
In any case, you sound like an Android user or should be one.
The big deal with my job is that I need to be able to download certain files form the internet and get them on my customer's computers for upgrades. I can Wifi tether to my computer to do it, but that cost an extra $25.00 / month and it is a little more annoying. My step father and sister have the HTC thunderbolt and it seem to last all day on a single charge. I think the battery issues have been greately over stated ( Like the antenna issue on the iPhone 4) I also drive a lot as part of my job, so I can charge the phone on the way to the next customer, so battery life is not an issue for me...
The extra speed of 4G is huge when downloading larger files....
I have a Droid one now and it is getting a little long in the tooth ( broken screen, be under water twice... )
To put the notion of Type 1 and Type 2 errors in remotely the same league as some silly, cute-sy, colloquial, Wikipedia-based, social science researcher catch-phrases ("Type 3" and "Type 4") betrays utter ignorance of the basics of the scientific method of enquiry.
Enough said.
In responding to the question, "What are Type IV errors?", definitions of Types I through III were provided for informational purposes only. Nowhere should it be construed that they should have been or were part and parcle of this study under discussion.
I'ts usually best to read not read into what was posted.
You have a valid point. Larger sample sizes generally lead to increased precision when estimating unknown parameters. This is a function of measures of central tendencey, specifically standard deviation (SD). However, data collection, reduction, and analysis times increase with the number of study participants. Cost then becomes a factor.
When reporting the results of studies such as this, it's best to stick to descriptive statistics in the reporting. Attempting to generalize the results to a larger population (inferential statistics) would be inappropriate (threats to external validity). This is especially true with small and/or non-representative samples, sampling techinques, and the associated Type VI error.
The sample size should be proportionate to the total population size. A properly selection (unskewed) sample of 4% should be sufficient
The problem is that the data is against you. Not only did Apple have their highest ever sales figures for iPhone last quarter, the YoY increase was up too, above levels seen in the previous recent quarters. The iPhone-4 may be old but it still holds up incredibly well compared to upper end Android phones.
The iPhone market seems to be permanently constrained by supply, as fast as markets such as the US move into a supply/demand balance Apple is adding new carriers and new markets.
I'm not saying that this will always be true, or that Apple can switch to 18month product cycles, or anything crazy like that - but the fact is that Apple hasn't paid any kind of price so far for the extended iP-4 lifespan.
High sales figures and high rates of growth do not necessarily indicate lost sales. Some amount of users who previously had iPhones may have switched to a different device primarily because of the age of the handset; the data presented here also doesn't address that issue.
However, Apple is losing out on future sales dollars. From Appleinsider: "In particular, his sampling found that many Verizon customers are waiting for the iPhone 5, as the iPhone 4 only went on sale to Verizon customers in February, a full 8 months after the handset was first sold to AT&T customers."
Since customers now must be under contract for two years before becoming eligible for a discount (which is to say, the Apple advertised price of an iPhone), users who delayed buying an iphone in February because they anticipated a new model in June, won't be replacing their iphones in February of 2013 but will likely be waiting until at least the release date+2years. That's lost revenue; that's 8 months of interest lost on that revenue. That's 8 months of app sales lost.
Comments
Why can't these people poll millions? A couple hundred isn't anything.
200 can be a sufficient sample size. What is more important is finding a sample that is representative of the population. That determines teh quality of a poll, and not the 200 number (of course, the more the better, but my point is that you don't need millions...a couple of hundred, can be enough).
Given the wide variety of demographics in urban, rural and suburban phone markets around this diverse country of phone users and wanters, you'd likely need a sample size of at least 1500-2000 controlled on a number of variables to get data anywhere close to the "95% confidence range" for being an accurate predictor.
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...n_3_years.html
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...ipad_2_ad.html
(By the way, Brazil is now China's #1 trading partner, despite Wal-Mart's best efforts...)
Everyone has such a hard on for 4g. Every 4g user I know says the battery life is just awful right now. Coupled with the extra charges for 4g, just don't get why people care at this point. Give me solid and universal 3g speed (which we don't have especially on AT&T) over an immature 4g any day.
In any case, you sound like an Android user or should be one.
The big deal with my job is that I need to be able to download certain files form the internet and get them on my customer's computers for upgrades. I can Wifi tether to my computer to do it, but that cost an extra $25.00 / month and it is a little more annoying. My step father and sister have the HTC thunderbolt and it seem to last all day on a single charge. I think the battery issues have been greately over stated ( Like the antenna issue on the iPhone 4) I also drive a lot as part of my job, so I can charge the phone on the way to the next customer, so battery life is not an issue for me...
The extra speed of 4G is huge when downloading larger files....
I have a Droid one now and it is getting a little long in the tooth ( broken screen, be under water twice... )
To put the notion of Type 1 and Type 2 errors in remotely the same league as some silly, cute-sy, colloquial, Wikipedia-based, social science researcher catch-phrases ("Type 3" and "Type 4") betrays utter ignorance of the basics of the scientific method of enquiry.
Enough said.
In responding to the question, "What are Type IV errors?", definitions of Types I through III were provided for informational purposes only. Nowhere should it be construed that they should have been or were part and parcle of this study under discussion.
I'ts usually best to read not read into what was posted.
Further deponent sayeth not.
I think Apple may have under estimated how delaying the release of a next generation phone could hurt sales.
iPhone growth....Q2.... 142%
Don't panic!
You have a valid point. Larger sample sizes generally lead to increased precision when estimating unknown parameters. This is a function of measures of central tendencey, specifically standard deviation (SD). However, data collection, reduction, and analysis times increase with the number of study participants. Cost then becomes a factor.
When reporting the results of studies such as this, it's best to stick to descriptive statistics in the reporting. Attempting to generalize the results to a larger population (inferential statistics) would be inappropriate (threats to external validity). This is especially true with small and/or non-representative samples, sampling techinques, and the associated Type VI error.
The sample size should be proportionate to the total population size. A properly selection (unskewed) sample of 4% should be sufficient
The sample size should be proportionate to the total population size. A properly selection (unskewed) sample of 4% should be sufficient
Stop spreading FUD.
Seriously.
The problem is that the data is against you. Not only did Apple have their highest ever sales figures for iPhone last quarter, the YoY increase was up too, above levels seen in the previous recent quarters. The iPhone-4 may be old but it still holds up incredibly well compared to upper end Android phones.
The iPhone market seems to be permanently constrained by supply, as fast as markets such as the US move into a supply/demand balance Apple is adding new carriers and new markets.
I'm not saying that this will always be true, or that Apple can switch to 18month product cycles, or anything crazy like that - but the fact is that Apple hasn't paid any kind of price so far for the extended iP-4 lifespan.
High sales figures and high rates of growth do not necessarily indicate lost sales. Some amount of users who previously had iPhones may have switched to a different device primarily because of the age of the handset; the data presented here also doesn't address that issue.
However, Apple is losing out on future sales dollars. From Appleinsider: "In particular, his sampling found that many Verizon customers are waiting for the iPhone 5, as the iPhone 4 only went on sale to Verizon customers in February, a full 8 months after the handset was first sold to AT&T customers."
Since customers now must be under contract for two years before becoming eligible for a discount (which is to say, the Apple advertised price of an iPhone), users who delayed buying an iphone in February because they anticipated a new model in June, won't be replacing their iphones in February of 2013 but will likely be waiting until at least the release date+2years. That's lost revenue; that's 8 months of interest lost on that revenue. That's 8 months of app sales lost.