Needham sees Apple stock hitting $540 on sales of 54M iPads in 2012

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  • Reply 21 of 41
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 6,092member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by scotty321 View Post


    With the U.S. economy weak and falling, with the U.S. dollar crumbling, and with the halt of most economic growth worldwide, I think it is pretty much IMPOSSIBLE that Apple stock will EVER be trading at $540 a share. I would say the chances of that happening are ZERO. Some reality from these analysts would be much appreciated. Two books that I've recently read, "Aftershock" and "The End of Growth", accurately lay out how the financial party days are over for ALL investors.



    Now now, anything is possible. The "impossible" just takes longer.



    Apple is in a ridiculously great position. They're sitting on a Mt. Everest of cash, making killer products that everyone wants, and are innovating and producing like crazy. They keep that up, then we see.



    I've lost track of how many people (including certain posters here in AI) that preached AAPL would never hit $X per share, and in time, met and exceeded it. $540 seems a bit high, but I certainly think it's not unreachable. It may just take quite a bit longer.



    So you're officially on record Mr. Predictor.
  • Reply 22 of 41
    myapplelovemyapplelove Posts: 1,515member
    so who of you guys has a good track record in apple moves to give us a tip here?
  • Reply 23 of 41
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


    Watching the Canadian market over the past few days makes me wonder if this is just a correction... almost 10% down over the past 10 days and down over 6% in the last 2 days.



    The sky is falling... the sky is falling... Nostradamus warned us about this... etc. etc.



    Yes, also a hangover from the Tea Party orgy of fear-mongering over the past several weeks.



    This story should be read with the earlier one on RBC, where we find:



    "He [analyst Abramsky] came away from the meeting with an overall positive outlook on Apple. The executives affirmed Apple's "untapped global opportunity," especially in China, which has seen tremendous growth in recent years, the analyst said. Other emerging markets such as Latin America, the Middle East and India also provide Apple with a significant opportunity for expansion."



    Apple seems to have the largest possible global strategy in an ascendant industry. The first computer revolution of 20 years ago was just a prelude. The computer in everyone's hand will create a new economy around it in unimaginable ways. At least I can't imagine it, but I know it's going to big, and quick to appear, just like the TV consumer revolution was in the 50s and 60s, and the first information mini-revolution was in the 90s.



    A U.S. budget surplus looms, if we can shut up the fearful hand wringers.
  • Reply 24 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by myapplelove View Post


    so who of you guys has a good track record in apple moves to give us a tip here?



    One thing is for sure: anyone who claims he does is lying.
  • Reply 25 of 41
    October 19, 1987...check that out but, tough to see $500 today...Is it harder to imagine AAPL at $6 bucks a share ? (Oct 26, 1987)
  • Reply 26 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by VinitaBoy View Post


    I've been buying AAPL since the early 1990's, having now accumulated 5700 shares. The equity has split 2 for 1 twice in that time, making my average price per share $12.40. Right now (9:20 MDT), the stock is sitting at $375, give or take a few pennies--and has been as high as the low 400's.



    Now, and with that said, oh wise Scotty321 . . . what would you have said AAPL's chances of rising from 12 to 400 would have been in the past two decades? Zero? Less than zero? Apple, Inc. will be the largest cap company in the world before the end of the year (if not the end of the month), a fact I doubt you will acknowledge now or even have predicted THEN.



    As my daddy used to say to my brother and me, "If you're so smart, how come you ain't rich?" ARE YOU, Scotty? (If so, I'd love to invite you onto my yacht sometime for cocktails. You can predict the future some more for us, one and all!)



    My daddy used to say "if you're so rich why are you so stupid?".
  • Reply 27 of 41
    cvaldes1831cvaldes1831 Posts: 1,832member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by myapplelove View Post


    so who of you guys has a good track record in apple moves to give us a tip here?



    My advice: don't solicit investment tips from anonymous bboards.
  • Reply 28 of 41
    philboogiephilboogie Posts: 7,675member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by polar315 View Post


    24" iMac, 2 Macbook Pros, iPad Version 1, iPhone 3GS, Shuffle and a couple of iTouches somewhere in the house that I can't find.



    Download Find My iPhone as it works on iPod touch as well (provided they are charged, within range of WiFi and all that)
  • Reply 29 of 41
    desarcdesarc Posts: 642member
    he also reports that apple will earn a little over $1.10 per share on fudge factor.

    must have forgotten the y in Apple's top secret Fudge Factory.



    (how do you attribute earning per share to fudge factor in forward looking guesstimates?)
  • Reply 30 of 41
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Interesting piece of iPhone data that I stumbled across today that sheds some light on the piper jaffrey survey that we saw a few days ago.



    http://www.businessinsider.com/iphon...parison-2011-8



    Turns out that the choice of Minneapolis was indeed the reason that iOS was over-represented in their sample, it's quite interesting how this is an east/west thing in the US. Presumably this is due to whether AT&T or Verizon offer the best service in the state?
  • Reply 31 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by myapplelove View Post


    so who of you guys has a good track record in apple moves to give us a tip here?



    Trust me - I've consistently sold large portions of my holding just before a dip, only to buy back the same shares and many more shortly thereafter. I can time the market. I use a combination of sophisticated technical analysis techniques that are rock solid.



    I can tell you with complete certainty that Apple's shares will skyrocket, starting on September 17 at about noon. My advice is to get your hands on as much cash as you can and sink it all into Apple on September 16. Mortgage your house if you have to. Sell your car. Use your kid's college fund. Borrow as much from each of your friends as you possibly can.



    You won't regret it!
  • Reply 32 of 41
    dickprinterdickprinter Posts: 1,060member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleLover2 View Post


    Trust me - I've consistently sold large portions of my holding just before a dip, only to buy back the same shares and many more shortly thereafter. I can time the market. I use a combination of sophisticated technical analysis techniques that are rock solid.



    I can tell you with complete certainty that Apple's shares will skyrocket, starting on September 17 at about noon. My advice is to get your hands on as much cash as you can and sink it all into Apple on September 16. Mortgage your house if you have to. Sell your car. Use your kid's college fund. Borrow as much from each of your friends as you possibly can.



    You won't regret it!





    Your "large portion" could be 75 out of 100 shares for all we know. Some of us have thousands of shares, with me personally picking up 4000 at a split adjusted $4.25 a share back in 1998. Do you understand the capital gains I'd have to pay to play around like that?



    Sorry, but no one can time the market that consistently.
  • Reply 33 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post


    Your "large portion" could be 75 out of 100 shares for all we know. Some of us have thousands of shares, with me personally picking up 4000 at a split adjusted $4.25 a share back in 1998. Do you understand the capital gains I'd have to pay to play around like that?



    Sorry, but no one can time the market that consistently.





    I didn't really think that I needed it, but I added a at the end just to be sure nobody would take me seriously.



    Wrong again, it would seem...





    Ulp! I hope that nobody actually TAKES that advice. I made it as absurd as I could, in the vein of "ask a silly question, get a silly answer".
  • Reply 34 of 41
    reveriereverie Posts: 66member
    His iPad and iPhone unit forecasts are ridiculously low. He is predicting that sales in the second half of 2011 will be lower than in the first half. That would be the first time ever for iProducts. I'm afraid there won't be lines for the iPhone 5. And no Christmas this year, sorry. He's also predicting the worst year-over-year growth ever for iOS products in 2012. And then he even cautions readers this may be too optimistic. Common, this is an AAPL bull? Apple will beat his forecasts within the first 9 months of 2012.
  • Reply 35 of 41
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by reverie View Post


    His iPad and iPhone unit forecasts are ridiculously low. He is predicting that sales in the second half of 2011 will be lower than in the first half. That would be the first time ever for iProducts. I'm afraid there won't be lines for the iPhone 5. And no Christmas this year, sorry. He's also predicting the worst year-over-year growth ever for iOS products in 2012. And then he even cautions readers this may be too optimistic. Common, this is an AAPL bull? Apple will beat his forecasts within the first 9 months of 2012.



    It's possible we will see a small dip in sales on iPhone in Apple's Q4, that has happened in the past in quarters where new iPhone models were launched. But the biggest sequential gains were found in the quarters immediately following new models, so Apple's 1Q2012 (calendar 4Q2011), should be impressive. I'm expecting at least 25million units, but it could easily be 30million.



    As for iPad sales, yeh - he's completely missed the guidance from the last conference call, we have every reason to expect Q4 to be at least 15million units shipped. I personally expect iPads to be outselling iPhones by the end of 2012.
  • Reply 36 of 41
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Imagine this turns true - AAPL shares hit $500, or $600. But what does it mean if the US$ starts tanking even more than it has been the last few years?
  • Reply 37 of 41
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    Imagine this turns true - AAPL shares hit $500, or $600. But what does it mean if the US$ starts tanking even more than it has been the last few years?



    First off I don't think that the dollar is going to tank, though I do think that Asian currencies will rise - they've been undervalued for decades due to dollar pegs or soft pegs.



    Then if the dollar does tank, then Apple's share price will explode, because the result won't be cheaper iPhones in Europe, but more expensive ones in the US, and the dollar profits will inevitably rise once the hedges wind down.



    Really though it depends on how big a tanking you are postulating, and how much it feeds into US inflation. You need to postulate a really really bad global scenario before Apple starts to suffer seriously.
  • Reply 38 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post


    My advice: don't solicit investment tips from anonymous bboards.



    Er, so I shouldn't follow your advice then....which means I should solicit investment tips from anonymous bboards then?
  • Reply 39 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


    Watching the Canadian market over the past few days makes me wonder if this is just a correction... almost 10% down over the past 10 days and down over 6% in the last 2 days.



    The sky is falling... the sky is falling... Nostradamus warned us about this... etc. etc.



    Anyone know if iPads are edible?
  • Reply 40 of 41
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Stock markets got SLAMMED yesterday. Even AUD/USD which was trading at 1.10 during the "debt ceiling crisis" back to 1.00 (parity) during Monday (Aug 8 2011) US stock trading. Due to unwinding of risk. Not surprisingly AAPL got hit too and dropped back to $350.



    Is this reaction to a rating downgrade rational in any way? I don't get it.
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