Still others in the industry expect that demand for tablets will drop significantly, much like the bottom fell out on the netbook market, taking with it hardware makers like Acer. They believe the "traditional" notebook industry will rebound once consumer interest in tablets wanes.
A colleague of mine bought an iPad (after saying for months that he didn't need one) and has found that it has replaced his laptop 90% of the time (pretty much like myself).
I think the "traditional" notebook industry may struggle to bounce back - for the remaining 10% of the time, my laptop will suffice (and because of the reduced handling/usage, will hopefully last much longer).
Similar things were said about Android phones. Now they outsell iOS phones.
Time will tell. Nobody knows the future.
Android phones do not outsell iOS phones, they are given away by cellphone companies, meaning there are more in circulation. Every iPhone out there is purchased either directly or through an upfront cost and loaded monthly fee to the cellphone provider. The majority of Android handsets are free on relatively inexpensive contracts.
Fact: Many here predicted that Android phones would never do well. Fact: Android phones now outsell iOS phones.
Fact: Many here predict that Android tablets will never do well.
Conjecture: Maybe yes, maybe no.
Fact: Nobody knows the future.
In a prior thread, in response to someone saying, "Does the prediction for iPad market share four years form now seem ridiculously optimistic to anyone else here???", you responded, "Yes. Fatuous even."
Actually there's been a few "free iPhone" deals with contract outside the US. IIRC there was one recently in North America as well. One of the higher profile examples is in Japan where the iPhone carrier has had an ongoing "free iPhone with contract" offer since back in 2009. Yet Android still manages to outsell the iPhone nearly 2:1 in Japan. I don't think it's all about the money all the time.
On the other hand, hasn't the iPhone in Japan been limited to just one carrier? That could easily have offset any advantage from having free phones. A better comparison would be sales on that carrier.
The majority of Android handsets are free on relatively inexpensive contracts.
That has already been said, many times, but I've never seen any real analysis done.
Do you have any factual data to back up the assertion? I posted a cite which indicates that the best selling Android phones are the premium models, and not the free ones.
Do you have any evidence that "the majority of Android handsets are free"?
Android phones do not outsell iOS phones, they are given away by cellphone companies, meaning there are more in circulation. Every iPhone out there is purchased either directly or through an upfront cost and loaded monthly fee to the cellphone provider. The majority of Android handsets are free on relatively inexpensive contracts.
Um, there are no free Android phones either. The costs are absorbed by the carrier in return for your long-term commitment to a contract. No different from the iPhone, which is also offered "free" outside the US. So yes, overall Android phone sales as a percentage of market share well exceed those of Apple's iPhone line.
(Disclaimer: This has no direct relationship to profits from smartphone sales, which haven't been updated in a long time AFAIK. Unclear what the current numbers are.)
In a prior thread, in response to someone saying, "Does the prediction for iPad market share four years form now seem ridiculously optimistic to anyone else here???", you responded, "Yes. Fatuous even."
Sure sounds like a prediction on your part to me!
I will stipulate that I am imperfect. Thanks for the feedback.
Quoting professional financial analysts is really a disservice to tech media readers. These guys are really inaccurate. The ones most often quoted: Shaw Wu, Gene Munster, and Katy Huberty are amongst the worst predictors of Apple's behavior. It's quite pathetic, to be honest that educated human beings are forced to confront their garbage in print.
You're forgetting that one thing that accounts for this is that the "analysts" have the additional pressures due to the fact that they are professional analysts. If Joe Blogger says that Apple is going to have $200B in revenue and they are wildly off, then no one cares. If a professional analyst is too far afield (esp to the upside) then there are professional and legal ramifications. The system encourages them to be conservative, there isn't as much downside to under predicting (to a point).
On the other hand, hasn't the iPhone in Japan been limited to just one carrier? That could easily have offset any advantage from having free phones. A better comparison would be sales on that carrier.
According to one of the articles I linked, the Japanese iPhone wasn't selling well at all, which is why they elected to try a "free with contract" offer to give it a boost. Two years later it's still offered free.
Price point is the key! If the Amazon tablet is cheap they will fly off the shelves! Not sure the OS will make a difference to the average consumer, I still think if they cost the same as the iPad then they will still purchase an iPad!
Maybe. I love Amazon, it is my favorite company. But if the rumors are true, it feels like a mistake. No e-ink, fine if you keep the traditional kindle. Two-finger cap touchscreen? WTF, something does not add up here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ConradJoe
Similar things were said about Android phones. Now they outsell iOS phones.
Time will tell. Nobody knows the future.
Android phones are not a single unit you might compare Android to iOS, but please find some actual numbers and don't just extrapolate googles activation numbers, they only report anomalous peaks. Even this will require some substantiation that the Android platforms you are comparing are actually compatible with each other.
You may compare the sales of the S2 against h iPhone 4. You can compare Apple phone sales to Motorola phone sales. You can compare Samsung smartphone sale to Apple smartphone sales. It is absurd to just toss Android out there like it is something.
According to one of the articles I linked, the Japanese iPhone wasn't selling well at all, which is why they elected to try a "free with contract" offer to give it a boost. Two years later it's still offered free.
That was an interesting 2009 article, but it seemed to be just speculation based on the price reduction. It's hard to imagine why the iPhone would sell worse in Japan than elsewhere.
Fact: Many here predicted that Android phones would never do well. Fact: Android phones now outsell iOS phones.
Fact: Many here predict that Android tablets will never do well.
Conjecture: Maybe yes, maybe no.
Fact: Nobody knows the future.
Fact THE most popular smartphone worldwide is the iPhone
Fact The second most popular smartphone is the iPhone 3G
Fact The iPhones account for 50% of the profits in the whole cell phone industry.
So it is important to include all the facts. I suppose that yes, Android has done better than many people expected, but it has not "killed" the iPhone either (as some others have predicted). When all is said and done - the iPhone still dominates.
Still others in the industry expect that demand for tablets will drop significantly, much like the bottom fell out on the netbook market, taking with it hardware makers like Acer. They believe the "traditional" notebook industry will rebound once consumer interest in tablets wanes.
Yes - of course - just like interest in the smartphones has waned!
Still others in the industry expect that demand for tablets will drop significantly, much like the bottom fell out on the netbook market, taking with it hardware makers like Acer. They believe the "traditional" notebook industry will rebound once consumer interest in tablets wanes.
The "others" are retarded. What they and apparently every other tablet company can't seem to grasp is that there isn't a market for tablets....there's a market for iPads and things that are almost iPads. The "tablet" market is extremely limited. If Sharper Image were still around, tablets would be sold there. Computer geeks and people that just want gadgets buy "tablets." Everyone else wants iPads. The same market dynamics basically go for the iPhone. People want iPhones, not smartphones, which is one reason RIM is getting its ass kicked. They'll accept things that are "nearly iPhones," but deep down in places they don't talk about at parties, they know they really just bought a copy.
How this simple fact goes unnoticed year after year is beyond me. At least Samsung had the cojones to copy the iPad and iPhone. Despicable and blatant as it is, they at least seem to understand the market. Everyone else is stuck in 1999, when makers were competing against the iMac in the "all in one" market. It doesn't work like that here.
I think the above nails it on Android. Additionally I question the word "outsells" when you have no cost phones offered or BOGO deals to flood the market place (Quick how much $ you make on a free phone?). As the above note mentions many Android phones are not revenue generators for their providers like an iPhone - but Android does a great job at displaying ads <surprise !>. Lastly it is crazy to think, like the Appleinsider article suggests, that producers of electronics are "waiting" for the next iteration of Android to create a product to compete with iPad. The problem is they can not compete on cost of materials now with a "free" OS.. how is a new "free" OS going to lower their costs of materials in the future... as Apple continues to dominate in parts procurement? Besides the fact that when you say "tablet" to Joe Average he/she responds "... oh you mean an iPad?".
Debating whether an unannounced and unreleased tablet will fail/succeed is no better than flipping a coin. Actually, it's probably worse as they have a history of saying the wrong thing.
Wrong, flipping a coin gives you a 50-50 chance. The failure of every iPad competitor released so far logically implies an expected success rate of less than 50% for any new iPad competitor.
Saying 'no better than flipping a coin' is not the same as saying 'I don't know what the odds are'.
Comments
Still others in the industry expect that demand for tablets will drop significantly, much like the bottom fell out on the netbook market, taking with it hardware makers like Acer. They believe the "traditional" notebook industry will rebound once consumer interest in tablets wanes.
A colleague of mine bought an iPad (after saying for months that he didn't need one) and has found that it has replaced his laptop 90% of the time (pretty much like myself).
I think the "traditional" notebook industry may struggle to bounce back - for the remaining 10% of the time, my laptop will suffice (and because of the reduced handling/usage, will hopefully last much longer).
Similar things were said about Android phones. Now they outsell iOS phones.
Time will tell. Nobody knows the future.
Android phones do not outsell iOS phones, they are given away by cellphone companies, meaning there are more in circulation. Every iPhone out there is purchased either directly or through an upfront cost and loaded monthly fee to the cellphone provider. The majority of Android handsets are free on relatively inexpensive contracts.
Facts are facts.
Fact: Many here predicted that Android phones would never do well. Fact: Android phones now outsell iOS phones.
Fact: Many here predict that Android tablets will never do well.
Conjecture: Maybe yes, maybe no.
Fact: Nobody knows the future.
In a prior thread, in response to someone saying, "Does the prediction for iPad market share four years form now seem ridiculously optimistic to anyone else here???", you responded, "Yes. Fatuous even."
Sure sounds like a prediction on your part to me!
If you want to compare on that level, you should add all iOS devices, iPod touch, iPad, etc, and then you will have a bit different picture.
When comparing phone sales divvied up by OS, it makes little sense to add in other product categories.
For example, if one were to compare computer OS sales, one would not include the zillions of devices running Windows Embedded.
Actually there's been a few "free iPhone" deals with contract outside the US. IIRC there was one recently in North America as well. One of the higher profile examples is in Japan where the iPhone carrier has had an ongoing "free iPhone with contract" offer since back in 2009. Yet Android still manages to outsell the iPhone nearly 2:1 in Japan. I don't think it's all about the money all the time.
http://techcrunch.com/2009/02/26/iph...able-for-free/
http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2009/02/free-iphones-al/
On the other hand, hasn't the iPhone in Japan been limited to just one carrier? That could easily have offset any advantage from having free phones. A better comparison would be sales on that carrier.
Your statements seem to be factually incorrect, according to this:
http://blendblogger.com/2011/09/05/t...d-cell-phones/
According to the article, the best sellers are some of the most expensive models on the market, and not the bottom tier phones.
The prices listed have nothing to do with the actual price a customer pays when signing up with a plan (which is how the majority of folks do it).
If you bop over to Amazon, you'll see the top 3 Android phones are priced $179, $.01, and $.01 respectively with contract.
The majority of Android handsets are free on relatively inexpensive contracts.
That has already been said, many times, but I've never seen any real analysis done.
Do you have any factual data to back up the assertion? I posted a cite which indicates that the best selling Android phones are the premium models, and not the free ones.
Do you have any evidence that "the majority of Android handsets are free"?
Android phones do not outsell iOS phones, they are given away by cellphone companies, meaning there are more in circulation. Every iPhone out there is purchased either directly or through an upfront cost and loaded monthly fee to the cellphone provider. The majority of Android handsets are free on relatively inexpensive contracts.
Um, there are no free Android phones either. The costs are absorbed by the carrier in return for your long-term commitment to a contract. No different from the iPhone, which is also offered "free" outside the US. So yes, overall Android phone sales as a percentage of market share well exceed those of Apple's iPhone line.
(Disclaimer: This has no direct relationship to profits from smartphone sales, which haven't been updated in a long time AFAIK. Unclear what the current numbers are.)
In a prior thread, in response to someone saying, "Does the prediction for iPad market share four years form now seem ridiculously optimistic to anyone else here???", you responded, "Yes. Fatuous even."
Sure sounds like a prediction on your part to me!
I will stipulate that I am imperfect. Thanks for the feedback.
Which is why amateur Apple finance bloggers blow doors on professional analysts in predicting Apple's performance.
Quoting professional financial analysts is really a disservice to tech media readers. These guys are really inaccurate. The ones most often quoted: Shaw Wu, Gene Munster, and Katy Huberty are amongst the worst predictors of Apple's behavior. It's quite pathetic, to be honest that educated human beings are forced to confront their garbage in print.
You're forgetting that one thing that accounts for this is that the "analysts" have the additional pressures due to the fact that they are professional analysts. If Joe Blogger says that Apple is going to have $200B in revenue and they are wildly off, then no one cares. If a professional analyst is too far afield (esp to the upside) then there are professional and legal ramifications. The system encourages them to be conservative, there isn't as much downside to under predicting (to a point).
On the other hand, hasn't the iPhone in Japan been limited to just one carrier? That could easily have offset any advantage from having free phones. A better comparison would be sales on that carrier.
According to one of the articles I linked, the Japanese iPhone wasn't selling well at all, which is why they elected to try a "free with contract" offer to give it a boost. Two years later it's still offered free.
Price point is the key! If the Amazon tablet is cheap they will fly off the shelves! Not sure the OS will make a difference to the average consumer, I still think if they cost the same as the iPad then they will still purchase an iPad!
Maybe. I love Amazon, it is my favorite company. But if the rumors are true, it feels like a mistake. No e-ink, fine if you keep the traditional kindle. Two-finger cap touchscreen? WTF, something does not add up here.
Similar things were said about Android phones. Now they outsell iOS phones.
Time will tell. Nobody knows the future.
Android phones are not a single unit you might compare Android to iOS, but please find some actual numbers and don't just extrapolate googles activation numbers, they only report anomalous peaks. Even this will require some substantiation that the Android platforms you are comparing are actually compatible with each other.
You may compare the sales of the S2 against h iPhone 4. You can compare Apple phone sales to Motorola phone sales. You can compare Samsung smartphone sale to Apple smartphone sales. It is absurd to just toss Android out there like it is something.
According to one of the articles I linked, the Japanese iPhone wasn't selling well at all, which is why they elected to try a "free with contract" offer to give it a boost. Two years later it's still offered free.
That was an interesting 2009 article, but it seemed to be just speculation based on the price reduction. It's hard to imagine why the iPhone would sell worse in Japan than elsewhere.
Facts are facts.
Fact: Many here predicted that Android phones would never do well. Fact: Android phones now outsell iOS phones.
Fact: Many here predict that Android tablets will never do well.
Conjecture: Maybe yes, maybe no.
Fact: Nobody knows the future.
Fact THE most popular smartphone worldwide is the iPhone
Fact The second most popular smartphone is the iPhone 3G
Fact The iPhones account for 50% of the profits in the whole cell phone industry.
So it is important to include all the facts. I suppose that yes, Android has done better than many people expected, but it has not "killed" the iPhone either (as some others have predicted). When all is said and done - the iPhone still dominates.
Fact THE most popular smartphone worldwide is the iPhone
Fact The second most popular smartphone is the iPhone 3G
Fact The iPhones account for 50% of the profits in the whole cell phone industry.
Well, 3GS, but yeah.
Still others in the industry expect that demand for tablets will drop significantly, much like the bottom fell out on the netbook market, taking with it hardware makers like Acer. They believe the "traditional" notebook industry will rebound once consumer interest in tablets wanes.
Yes - of course - just like interest in the smartphones has waned!
Still others in the industry expect that demand for tablets will drop significantly, much like the bottom fell out on the netbook market, taking with it hardware makers like Acer. They believe the "traditional" notebook industry will rebound once consumer interest in tablets wanes.
The "others" are retarded. What they and apparently every other tablet company can't seem to grasp is that there isn't a market for tablets....there's a market for iPads and things that are almost iPads. The "tablet" market is extremely limited. If Sharper Image were still around, tablets would be sold there. Computer geeks and people that just want gadgets buy "tablets." Everyone else wants iPads. The same market dynamics basically go for the iPhone. People want iPhones, not smartphones, which is one reason RIM is getting its ass kicked. They'll accept things that are "nearly iPhones," but deep down in places they don't talk about at parties, they know they really just bought a copy.
How this simple fact goes unnoticed year after year is beyond me. At least Samsung had the cojones to copy the iPad and iPhone. Despicable and blatant as it is, they at least seem to understand the market. Everyone else is stuck in 1999, when makers were competing against the iMac in the "all in one" market. It doesn't work like that here.
Similar things were said about Android phones. Now they outsell iOS phones.
Time will tell. Nobody knows the future.
http://www.asymco.com/2011/09/21/the...t-utilization/
I think the above nails it on Android. Additionally I question the word "outsells" when you have no cost phones offered or BOGO deals to flood the market place (Quick how much $ you make on a free phone?). As the above note mentions many Android phones are not revenue generators for their providers like an iPhone - but Android does a great job at displaying ads <surprise !>. Lastly it is crazy to think, like the Appleinsider article suggests, that producers of electronics are "waiting" for the next iteration of Android to create a product to compete with iPad. The problem is they can not compete on cost of materials now with a "free" OS.. how is a new "free" OS going to lower their costs of materials in the future... as Apple continues to dominate in parts procurement? Besides the fact that when you say "tablet" to Joe Average he/she responds "... oh you mean an iPad?".
Debating whether an unannounced and unreleased tablet will fail/succeed is no better than flipping a coin. Actually, it's probably worse as they have a history of saying the wrong thing.
Wrong, flipping a coin gives you a 50-50 chance. The failure of every iPad competitor released so far logically implies an expected success rate of less than 50% for any new iPad competitor.
Saying 'no better than flipping a coin' is not the same as saying 'I don't know what the odds are'.
Innumeracy strikes again.