Most people update every 2 cycles. At least those who are on a 2-year contract. I skipped both 3G and 3Gs. Got my iPhone 4 on the first day it was available. AT&T will not give me a subsidized price again until Feb 2012. So, I will wait and upgrade as soon as eligible. Now, if AT&T were to cut my monthly charge as soon as the contract was over, I would not upgrade for a long time.
Maybe, but if that is universal, then the 4S will only sell to those of use who own a 3GS from two years ago. And thats not going to set the world alight. They need to get the kind of poeple who upgrade every cycle. Or get people back from Android.
I think there is enough info from China that I wouldn't count it out. From that opinion piece Gruber also said?
Benm.at?s photos of their prototype, to my eyes, make this design seem less severely tapered than MacRumors? mockups based on the same purported form factor. It?s not balanced or symmetric, but, it?s not as unbalanced and asymmetric as I?d been thinking.
Not a huge challenge but if Apple releases a 4" phone on Tuesday, it will nevertheless take quite some time until most apps actually take advantage of it. I mean, how long did it take until most apps had their iPad version which is also just a larger window? iPad app developers had a three month headstart between announcement and shipment but it still took quite some time.
Yes, I was talking about how it works on Android. YOu are correct - the fact that Apple has not told devs to worry about this is telling. if the screen is bigger it will have a lower DPI and the same proportions.
Speech is not the big deal everybody seems to think. And iOS 5 runs on a 3GS. iCloud storage we already know about .
Speech recognition is a big deal. Maybe not to you. The fact that iOS 5 may run on 3Gs and that we know about iCloud is not the point. The point is that these things taken together will make using the iPhone 4 and 4S a fantastic experience. And that means explosive sales worldwide.
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd
Why not amortize the design of the iPhone 1 over 4 generations?
Those prices are basically you taking the existing on contract an US based prices, which are not reflective of the actual prices at all and applying them to the new models. That makes no sense. There is no reason to get rid of the 3GS, for instance. In fact you contradicted yourself in two paragraphs - amortizing the 4S design is good, getting rid of a top selling phone like the 3Gs is good.
And where, in this business plan. is the cheap model? The iPhone 4 8GB at $99 is really selling at $450 off contract. Not cheap. Even if - maybe especially if - they just have a 4S they will keep the 3GS. It runs iOS 5. It can be their entry model outside the US. <$300 of contract. Or cheaper.
Clearly, you don't understand business strategy. Apple is very consistent about how they do things. You also seem to be confusing contract with no-contract prices.
It is a fact that apple can no longer compete in the smartphone market against such large players now like HTC and Samsung with just hardware and physical features that would be impossible as these companies are willing to throw all of their profits in R&D to crank out phones every other month. Apple on the other hand has always been more into releasing one product a year. In the fast advancing field of Smart phones you can't expect to make any real headway off of one release a year with just hardware so it requires some form of software to complement it.
Is iOS 5 a worthwhile OS for someone who already has a Samsung Galaxy S II or a Evo 3d to make the switch to the iPhone. Well they would now have to sacrifice their larger screen, NFC, 3D, HDMI ports Dual flash, and for what. They would go to an OS with a new notification system that is not as good as the one they came from. They would have twitter integrated. Is that really a big deal? NO they would have had all the features of this on their last phone it was just nothing that was bragged about. They will have the new assistant feature, which is good because android has had that since 2.2 so its not a big deal to them. They will notice that allot of the videos in some of the websites they frequent don't work anymore. In all I don't think apple would be wise to just release a small spec bump with competition this fearsome and iOS really being a Catch-up OS.
With that said Google will be announcing Ice Cream Sandwich soon so we will know what features iOS 6 will have. JK
Maybe, but if that is universal, then the 4S will only sell to those of use who own a 3GS from two years ago. And thats not going to set the world alight. They need to get the kind of poeple who upgrade every cycle. Or get people back from Android.
Not really. Initially, the 4S will sell to those who own a 3GS from 2 years ago. And new users who are coming off a contract from somewhere else (Android or otherwise). And those who are getting a phone for the first time in the U.S and other countries (i.e. market growth).
Eventually, iPhone 4 users will get the 4s when their contract expires.
Speech recognition is a big deal. Maybe not to you.
To very few people, and it exists on Android. Voice activation seems like some kind of holy grail because if makes up for everything else - the delay, the same design. to who?
Quote:
The fact that iOS 5 may run on 3Gs and that we know about iCloud is not the point.
Why not? If it is all about the OS and the OS runs fine on the 3GS what is the point?
Quote:
. The point is that these things taken together will make using the iPhone 4 and 4S a fantastic experience. And that means explosive sales worldwide.
If the iPhone 4 and the iPhone 4S are both a "fantastic experience" why would it mean "explosive sales" worldwide? That makes no sense. iOS 5 has to be much better on the 4S to garner explosive sales, which are just going to come from people moving from Android, or upgrading from iPhone 4. It wont happen with just people upgrading from the 3GS.
Quote:
Clearly, you don't understand business strategy. Apple is very consistent about how they do things. You also seem to be confusing contract with no-contract prices.
NO YOU ARE. It was you who was using contract prices in the US. I pointed out that was incorrect. In very simple English. So lets repeat: no iPhone sells at $99. Or anything like it. The price of all iPhones is it's off contract price. Stop quoting contract prices in one country. It is meaningless.
As for Apple's business strategy - you cant judge their future by their past. If we were talking about iPod's back in 2004 you would say they always produce a new model which has the same design but with more storage, and sell last years model at a discount. Then came the mini, nano, shuffle etc.
releasing this years model, and reducing last years model in price ( to a price still very high off contract) is not going to work going forward. And I am sure it is not what they are going to do going forward. If that is what they do in 2015, they will have 5% of the market.
For instance: where in this business model of yours is the cheap off-contract PAYG China phone?
Not really. Initially, the 4S will sell to those who own a 3GS from 2 years ago. And new users who are coming off a contract from somewhere else (Android or otherwise). And those who are getting a phone for the first time in the U.S and other countries (i.e. market growth).
Eventually, iPhone 4 users will get the 4s when their contract expires.
This is all just common sense.
Common sense, or not, it wont drive "explosive growth". The ratio of people who bought the 3GS two years ago is a small minority of all existing iPhone owners. Apple cant rely on them to drive growth. If there is no compelling reason for a switch from Android without a new form factor, so that wont drive growth, and if Apple dont have a wow factor, they wont get new smart phone users either.
There's been a lot of case imagery floating around, some of it convincing enough for me to think the cases are real, and plentiful. This is not to say that they'll fit anything Apple will introduce, but it appears significant money has been spent to make cases for something which is clearly not an iPhone 4S.
this is correct - cases are made for different size phone - no brainer there is 4.5 and 5
It was you who was using contract prices in the US. I pointed out that was incorrect. In very simple English. So lets repeat: no iPhone sells at $99. Or anything like it. The price of all iPhones is it's off contract price. Stop quoting contract prices in one country. It is meaningless.
Yes. I was quoting contract prices in the U.S. Anybody with half a brain would have understood that.
So, I will repeat: the iPhone 3Gs sells for $49 (previously $99) with a 2-year contract in the U.S.
Is this clear enough for you? Or, am I still confusing you?
He is wrong anyway, that really is what they sell for here. No US iPhone Carrie gives you a discount for bringing an unlocked phone, so you are not really paying more over time. The price to the consumer is $99.
Its a much more competitive world.. And it is not just Apple Insider. Take a look at AAPL since the rumours of the iPhone 5 not being anything other than an iPhone 4S went into over-drive. It;s off by $30.
Please. Tech has generally been off in the last two days: NASDAQ down 5%. Even Amazon was not spared: after an impressive runup on Wed (Fire), it was off by 7.5% in the past two days.
Who knows why.
Apple's moves are generally in line, and not attributable to anything as specific as iPhone 5.
I understand how people are saying that we all will disappointed in apple if they just release a 4S, heck I will too, but to say that it won't be a success is plain rubbish. Most of the people saying that they won't buy, are those who already have the iPhone 4 (yes tech geeks I'm talking to you). There are a lot of regular costumers who still have a contract with the 3GS. If the new iPhone is just a speed bump and camera upgrade than for iPhone 4 owners to upgrade wouldn't make sense, but to the rest of us it would be a great upgrade, granted not as great as the iPhone 5 mockups but enough to sell Apple some phones. But hey, maybe apple was so irritated with the whole gizmodo showing off there iPhone before the keynote that they made it their priority to conceal the real iPhone 5. wouldn't that be sweet?
Judging by how well the 3Gs is still selling I suspect the 4s will become a uniformed low-end offering on both GSM and CDMA networks replacing the 3Gs and the iPhone 5 will be the new top end. I don't think that the 4 (or at least the 4 form factor) will go away, especially considering how popular it is.
Judging by how well the 3Gs is still selling I suspect the 4s will become a uniformed low-end offering on both GSM and CDMA networks replacing the 3Gs and the iPhone 5 will be the new top end. I don't think that the 4 (or at least the 4 form factor) will go away, especially considering how popular it is.
I agree
4 stays as "low end" - with gsm and cdma & china
5 is the new one
China ready to rock - stock will hit $500 by 10/15, $650 by 12/31/2011
Yes. I was quoting contract prices in the U.S. Anybody with half a brain would have understood that.
So, I will repeat: the iPhone 3Gs sells for $49 (previously $99) with a 2-year contract in the U.S.
Is this clear enough for you? Or, am I still confusing you?
No, I know what you are quoting but it as relevant as quoting the Romanian price a contract with O2. Or the Hungarian contract with MagyarMobile.
All the more stupid because the rest of the world - where a good percentage of people on this forum, like me reside - can get the latest phone for free, or for $200(ish), or for $100(ish) because there are many and varied contracts. Quoting a phone price in one country on one contract is nonsense when we are trying to work out how expensive the iPhone is.
in any case all you did was take this year's prices, remove the 3GS, and refactor the prices so that the iPhone 4 takes the place of the 3GS, and the iPhone 4S replaces the 4. This is merely copying what happened 16 months ago.
Comments
Most people update every 2 cycles. At least those who are on a 2-year contract. I skipped both 3G and 3Gs. Got my iPhone 4 on the first day it was available. AT&T will not give me a subsidized price again until Feb 2012. So, I will wait and upgrade as soon as eligible. Now, if AT&T were to cut my monthly charge as soon as the contract was over, I would not upgrade for a long time.
Maybe, but if that is universal, then the 4S will only sell to those of use who own a 3GS from two years ago. And thats not going to set the world alight. They need to get the kind of poeple who upgrade every cycle. Or get people back from Android.
Tapered iPhone 5 is unlikely. Read this:
http://daringfireball.net/2011/09/teardrop_skepticism
I think there is enough info from China that I wouldn't count it out. From that opinion piece Gruber also said?
Not a huge challenge but if Apple releases a 4" phone on Tuesday, it will nevertheless take quite some time until most apps actually take advantage of it. I mean, how long did it take until most apps had their iPad version which is also just a larger window? iPad app developers had a three month headstart between announcement and shipment but it still took quite some time.
Yes, I was talking about how it works on Android. YOu are correct - the fact that Apple has not told devs to worry about this is telling. if the screen is bigger it will have a lower DPI and the same proportions.
Speech is not the big deal everybody seems to think. And iOS 5 runs on a 3GS. iCloud storage we already know about .
Speech recognition is a big deal. Maybe not to you. The fact that iOS 5 may run on 3Gs and that we know about iCloud is not the point. The point is that these things taken together will make using the iPhone 4 and 4S a fantastic experience. And that means explosive sales worldwide.
Why not amortize the design of the iPhone 1 over 4 generations?
Those prices are basically you taking the existing on contract an US based prices, which are not reflective of the actual prices at all and applying them to the new models. That makes no sense. There is no reason to get rid of the 3GS, for instance. In fact you contradicted yourself in two paragraphs - amortizing the 4S design is good, getting rid of a top selling phone like the 3Gs is good.
And where, in this business plan. is the cheap model? The iPhone 4 8GB at $99 is really selling at $450 off contract. Not cheap. Even if - maybe especially if - they just have a 4S they will keep the 3GS. It runs iOS 5. It can be their entry model outside the US. <$300 of contract. Or cheaper.
Clearly, you don't understand business strategy. Apple is very consistent about how they do things. You also seem to be confusing contract with no-contract prices.
It is a fact that apple can no longer compete in the smartphone market against such large players now like HTC and Samsung with just hardware and physical features that would be impossible as these companies are willing to throw all of their profits in R&D to crank out phones every other month. Apple on the other hand has always been more into releasing one product a year. In the fast advancing field of Smart phones you can't expect to make any real headway off of one release a year with just hardware so it requires some form of software to complement it.
Is iOS 5 a worthwhile OS for someone who already has a Samsung Galaxy S II or a Evo 3d to make the switch to the iPhone. Well they would now have to sacrifice their larger screen, NFC, 3D, HDMI ports Dual flash, and for what. They would go to an OS with a new notification system that is not as good as the one they came from. They would have twitter integrated. Is that really a big deal? NO they would have had all the features of this on their last phone it was just nothing that was bragged about. They will have the new assistant feature, which is good because android has had that since 2.2 so its not a big deal to them. They will notice that allot of the videos in some of the websites they frequent don't work anymore. In all I don't think apple would be wise to just release a small spec bump with competition this fearsome and iOS really being a Catch-up OS.
With that said Google will be announcing Ice Cream Sandwich soon so we will know what features iOS 6 will have. JK
This one's a keeper.
This one's a keeper.
in stone -
done
china take-off
$500 by 10/15
I have all these Android guys showing me their larger screened, thinner devices.
I so wished they'd have two models to at least have some variance in the line as people are finicky when they buy things.
I was hoping for a slightly larger screen for my fat fingers. The 1G iPhone I have is ready for retirement.
Here's hopin.
Maybe, but if that is universal, then the 4S will only sell to those of use who own a 3GS from two years ago. And thats not going to set the world alight. They need to get the kind of poeple who upgrade every cycle. Or get people back from Android.
Not really. Initially, the 4S will sell to those who own a 3GS from 2 years ago. And new users who are coming off a contract from somewhere else (Android or otherwise). And those who are getting a phone for the first time in the U.S and other countries (i.e. market growth).
Eventually, iPhone 4 users will get the 4s when their contract expires.
This is all just common sense.
Speech recognition is a big deal. Maybe not to you.
To very few people, and it exists on Android. Voice activation seems like some kind of holy grail because if makes up for everything else - the delay, the same design. to who?
The fact that iOS 5 may run on 3Gs and that we know about iCloud is not the point.
Why not? If it is all about the OS and the OS runs fine on the 3GS what is the point?
. The point is that these things taken together will make using the iPhone 4 and 4S a fantastic experience. And that means explosive sales worldwide.
If the iPhone 4 and the iPhone 4S are both a "fantastic experience" why would it mean "explosive sales" worldwide? That makes no sense. iOS 5 has to be much better on the 4S to garner explosive sales, which are just going to come from people moving from Android, or upgrading from iPhone 4. It wont happen with just people upgrading from the 3GS.
Clearly, you don't understand business strategy. Apple is very consistent about how they do things. You also seem to be confusing contract with no-contract prices.
NO YOU ARE. It was you who was using contract prices in the US. I pointed out that was incorrect. In very simple English. So lets repeat: no iPhone sells at $99. Or anything like it. The price of all iPhones is it's off contract price. Stop quoting contract prices in one country. It is meaningless.
As for Apple's business strategy - you cant judge their future by their past. If we were talking about iPod's back in 2004 you would say they always produce a new model which has the same design but with more storage, and sell last years model at a discount. Then came the mini, nano, shuffle etc.
releasing this years model, and reducing last years model in price ( to a price still very high off contract) is not going to work going forward. And I am sure it is not what they are going to do going forward. If that is what they do in 2015, they will have 5% of the market.
For instance: where in this business model of yours is the cheap off-contract PAYG China phone?
Not really. Initially, the 4S will sell to those who own a 3GS from 2 years ago. And new users who are coming off a contract from somewhere else (Android or otherwise). And those who are getting a phone for the first time in the U.S and other countries (i.e. market growth).
Eventually, iPhone 4 users will get the 4s when their contract expires.
This is all just common sense.
Common sense, or not, it wont drive "explosive growth". The ratio of people who bought the 3GS two years ago is a small minority of all existing iPhone owners. Apple cant rely on them to drive growth. If there is no compelling reason for a switch from Android without a new form factor, so that wont drive growth, and if Apple dont have a wow factor, they wont get new smart phone users either.
There's been a lot of case imagery floating around, some of it convincing enough for me to think the cases are real, and plentiful. This is not to say that they'll fit anything Apple will introduce, but it appears significant money has been spent to make cases for something which is clearly not an iPhone 4S.
this is correct - cases are made for different size phone - no brainer there is 4.5 and 5
It was you who was using contract prices in the US. I pointed out that was incorrect. In very simple English. So lets repeat: no iPhone sells at $99. Or anything like it. The price of all iPhones is it's off contract price. Stop quoting contract prices in one country. It is meaningless.
Yes. I was quoting contract prices in the U.S. Anybody with half a brain would have understood that.
So, I will repeat: the iPhone 3Gs sells for $49 (previously $99) with a 2-year contract in the U.S.
Is this clear enough for you? Or, am I still confusing you?
Its a much more competitive world.. And it is not just Apple Insider. Take a look at AAPL since the rumours of the iPhone 5 not being anything other than an iPhone 4S went into over-drive. It;s off by $30.
Please. Tech has generally been off in the last two days: NASDAQ down 5%. Even Amazon was not spared: after an impressive runup on Wed (Fire), it was off by 7.5% in the past two days.
Who knows why.
Apple's moves are generally in line, and not attributable to anything as specific as iPhone 5.
Judging by how well the 3Gs is still selling I suspect the 4s will become a uniformed low-end offering on both GSM and CDMA networks replacing the 3Gs and the iPhone 5 will be the new top end. I don't think that the 4 (or at least the 4 form factor) will go away, especially considering how popular it is.
I agree
4 stays as "low end" - with gsm and cdma & china
5 is the new one
China ready to rock - stock will hit $500 by 10/15, $650 by 12/31/2011
Yes. I was quoting contract prices in the U.S. Anybody with half a brain would have understood that.
So, I will repeat: the iPhone 3Gs sells for $49 (previously $99) with a 2-year contract in the U.S.
Is this clear enough for you? Or, am I still confusing you?
No, I know what you are quoting but it as relevant as quoting the Romanian price a contract with O2. Or the Hungarian contract with MagyarMobile.
All the more stupid because the rest of the world - where a good percentage of people on this forum, like me reside - can get the latest phone for free, or for $200(ish), or for $100(ish) because there are many and varied contracts. Quoting a phone price in one country on one contract is nonsense when we are trying to work out how expensive the iPhone is.
in any case all you did was take this year's prices, remove the 3GS, and refactor the prices so that the iPhone 4 takes the place of the 3GS, and the iPhone 4S replaces the 4. This is merely copying what happened 16 months ago.