iPhone 4S preorders suggest 3M sales at launch, 25M this quarter

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Apple's record setting pace of a million iPhone 4S preorders in 24 hours puts the company in a position to sell nearly 3 million devices on launch weekend, and 25 million in the current quarter.



Wall Street analysts reacted on Monday to Apple's announcement that customers had preordered 1 million units of the iPhone 4S on its first day of availability. That number is well beyond the company's previous record of 600,000 preorders for the iPhone 4 in 2010.



Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets believes that preorder numbers for the iPhone 4S put Apple on pace to sell around 3 million in its first weekend. That too would handily beat Apple's previous best of 1.7 million units sold in the first three days of availability for the iPhone 4 in 2010.



"Despite a more evolutionary update and a lack of AT&T early upgrade discounts, strong pre-orders affirm strong global demand and upgrades," Abramsky wrote in a note to investors.



Beyond the launch window, analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray believes that the early sales figures suggest Apple can potentially surpass his previously made prediction of 25 million units sold during the holiday quarter that ends with December. If Apple does sell 25 million iPhones, it would be up 77 percent from the 14.1 million handsets Apple sold in the September quarter of 2010, when the iPhone 4 debuted.



"We expected iPhone 4S to be the strongest iPhone launch ever, which Apple has now confirmed," Munster wrote. "While it is still early, this data point increases our confidence that iPhone 4S has the momentum to meet or exceed our 25m unit estimate for the Dec-11 quarter."







Preorders for the iPhone 4S began on Friday in the seven countries where the handset will launch this week: the U.S., Canada, Australia, the U.K., France, Germany and Japan. In addition to greater demand because of a growing smartphone market, the iPhone also has a larger presence on more carriers for the launch of the iPhone 4S.



Apple will also expand international availability of the iPhone 4S faster than it has done with any previous handset. Another 22 countries will gain access to the iPhone 4S by the end of October, including Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 26
  • Reply 2 of 26
    nagrommenagromme Posts: 2,834member
    Another great product that a vocal minority put down for no reason (?the shape has no novelty value!?), while the masses snap it up and enjoy the benefits
  • Reply 3 of 26
    Apple was devastatingly smart to unveil the iPhone 4S JUST BEFORE THE CHRISTMAS BUYING SEASON!



    WOW!



    Apple is going to have a MONSTER QUARTER. And it is going to steamroll ahead.
  • Reply 4 of 26
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Maybe the Kinect II will be able to beat the iPhone 4S as the World's Fastest-Selling Electron Device¡
  • Reply 5 of 26
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jameskatt2 View Post


    Apple was devastatingly smart to unveil the iPhone 4S JUST BEFORE THE CHRISTMAS BUYING SEASON!



    WOW!



    Apple is going to have a MONSTER QUARTER. And it is going to steamroll ahead.



    Some companies have all the luck.
  • Reply 6 of 26
    It's not really luck.



    It's about creating a good business model and executing it correctly. If it were about luck, you'd have random companies having great quarters followed by awful quarters.



    Apple has chosen to sell high quality products at high margins and maintain a consistently high user experience; the company has executed very well. That results in Apple topping every single customer satisfaction survey for years. If Apple stumbled, people would go elsewhere.



    No one is being forced to spend their money on Apple products. Based on quarterly earnings reports and sales growth, it is clear that Apple's customers making deliberate choices and end up being happy with those decisions.
  • Reply 7 of 26
    cpr1cpr1 Posts: 41member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by starwarrior View Post


    Some companies have all the luck.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post


    It's not really luck.



    It's about creating a good business model and executing it correctly. If it were about luck, you'd have random companies having great quarters followed by awful quarters.



    Apple has chosen to sell high quality products at high margins and maintain a consistently high user experience; the company has executed very well. That results in Apple topping every single customer satisfaction survey for years. If Apple stumbled, people would go elsewhere.



    No one is being forced to spend their money on Apple products. Based on quarterly earnings reports and sales growth, it is clear that Apple's customers making deliberate choices and end up being happy with those decisions.



    I thought the sarcasm in the original post was fairly obvious.
  • Reply 8 of 26
    ajitmdajitmd Posts: 365member
    What about Greater China? Mainland China, HK, Macau, Taiwan? Apple must have enough production capacity yet. Ran out of inventory.
  • Reply 9 of 26
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cpr1 View Post


    I thought the sarcasm in the original post was fairly obvious.



    You never know on the Internet, particularly in forums where there are a large number of participants whose native language isn't English. That's why there are smilies.



    Without any sort of clear indication, it is wisest to take online comments at face value, rather than assert a particular interpretation. There are many clues in verbal communcations that convey sarcasm, but none on the Internet.
  • Reply 10 of 26
    This is going to be the most disputed figure of the year for Apple. Tech pundits have already stuck their necks out calling the iPhone 4S a massive disappointment and they hate to be proven wrong. They're going to debunk these highly unlikely pre-order numbers one way or another and they've already started trying. The pundits are absolutely sure that consumers will believe them when they say that the iPhone 4S is nothing more than a 2010 iPhone 4 with an "S" stuck on the end.



    Everyone knows that a device is only considered new when it looks nothing like the older version and the iPhone 4S looks exactly like the iPhone 4. It even uses the same third-party accessories and cases. Who'd believe that as being new? The pundits hate the idea that they waited 16 months to see the same, exact smartphone they saw years ago. The reality distortion field can't even hide that much disappointment. The tech-heads wanted to see Apple's answer to the Nexus Prime, the smartphone that does everything and more and doesn't look anything like the Nexus One. Now that's what the critics call brand-new. All they got from Apple was week-old, warmed-over iPhone 4 soup.
  • Reply 11 of 26
    shenshen Posts: 434member
    All lies, not named iPhone 5 is not selling. A little android told me so.
  • Reply 12 of 26
    kenckenc Posts: 186member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AjitMD View Post


    What about Greater China? Mainland China, HK, Macau, Taiwan? Apple must have enough production capacity yet. Ran out of inventory.



    Launches in Singapore at the end of October. Everyone from HK, China, Taiwan, Macau and Malaysia will just make a short trip.
  • Reply 13 of 26
    ajmasajmas Posts: 557member
    Also given the GSM + CDMA support china is going to be covered quite nicely.
  • Reply 14 of 26
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ajmas View Post


    Also given the GSM + CDMA support china is going to be covered quite nicely.



    They still need a GSM(2G)/TD-SCDMA(3G) iPhone to cover the half-billion people on China Mobile.
  • Reply 15 of 26
    ahmlcoahmlco Posts: 432member
    This site gives some insight into the iPhone upgrade cycles.



    http://www.iSights.org/2011/10/the-i...ade-cycle.html



    Basically, there are major cycles and minor cycles, with the major cycles rather strategically placed during the middle of the contract period. In that way Apple tries to entice people to upgrade mid-cycle.
  • Reply 16 of 26
    There's no logic to that.



    Apple doesn't make any more money when an iPhone owner upgrades mid-cycle. Apple is going to make money regardless of how much the consumer pays, whether the handset is fully subsidized, partially subsidized, or not subsidized at all (full retail).



    And in most markets outside of USA (about half of iPhone revenue), the handsets aren't even subsidized. The consumer pays full retail and contract periods don't even exist.



    Moreover, Apple's sales growth has come from new customers. If it were mostly people upgrading, their sales increases would not be as impressive. They sold lots of iPhone 4 units to people who weren't upgrading from previous iPhones.
  • Reply 17 of 26
    christophbchristophb Posts: 1,457member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post




    including Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.



    No Greece?
  • Reply 18 of 26
    airnerdairnerd Posts: 664member
    I'm a little concerned. I got my shipment notice that my wifes phone shipped yesterday and arrived in ANC this afternoon and scheduled to be delivered on the 14th. Mine is still listed as "preparing to ship". I figure either hers will be early (doubt it) or mine will be late (SUCK!).





    Hers is a white 16gb, mine is black 16gb in case anyone else has seen the same thing. Maybe the black ones come from somewhere other than China?
  • Reply 19 of 26
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ChristophB View Post


    No Greece?



    Was going to make some quip about Greece is still trying to pull their money together to buy one, but instead I'll just nope and post the PR release.
  • Reply 20 of 26
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ahmlco View Post


    This site gives some insight into the iPhone upgrade cycles.



    http://www.iSights.org/2011/10/the-i...ade-cycle.html



    Basically, there are major cycles and minor cycles, with the major cycles rather strategically placed during the middle of the contract period. In that way Apple tries to entice people to upgrade mid-cycle.



    So do we expect to wait another 15 months before the iPhone 5 ? Some are predicting q3 of 2012. I can't wait for Wednesday to see how iOS 5 runs on my iPhone 4. Then I'll see if I will upgrade in late nov or hopefully wait until sep or oct to upgrade
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