...Want to be as good as any analyst or blogger (indie)?
1. Make a spreasheet with the above data.
2. Adjust the unit sales based on your own feeling.
3. Adjust the ASPs (prices) to something closer to what is reported by Apple. As opposed to my guesses here.
4. Add a row to your spreadsheet for profits (use similar methods).
5. Update your spreadsheet quarterly.
I think this can be no more than a 15 minute homework assignment. Maybe 30 minutes the first time and 15 minutes each quarter thereafter. As an investor for the long term I mostly care about:
1. Sustainable competitive advantage
2. Headroom for growth
3. Strong execution
4. Excellent R&D.
Market gyrations are expected. Guidance and quarterly estimates only serve the purpose of reinforcing the headroom cow growth bullet point. The beauty of Apple is the price gyrations allow an ability to acquire at lower prices over time.
Exactly. What I recommend and what I do.
Right now, I don't buy AAPL unless it's below 375 - sell when it gets up over 410. The machine traders play it on $5 variations @ 3000 trades per second.
AAPL only got as low as $393 - before I went to bed, last night. Already back up to $400 in premarket, this morning. So, no trade for this cranky old geek.
This is BS anyway. Apple beat earnings and revenue from the same quarter last year. That typically si how these things are evaluated. Now Apple is being compared to the previous quarter, which normally isn't the proper valuation.
Mike Abramsky of RBC Capital Markets told investors that Apple's first miss in five years was "transitional." He also viewed the company's guidance as unusually strong. According to him, Apple may see "strong catalysts ahead."
The analyst did warn, though, that the miss could spark near term volatility in Apple's stock "pending improved investor visibility to forward catalysts," such as the iPhone 4S product cycle and strong growth in Asia.
RBC had projected $34 billion in revenue and $8.00 in earnings per share next quarter, compared to Apple's guidance of $37 billion in revenue and $9.30 EPS.
I am very confused by Mike Abramsky / RBCs position
Apple beats its own guidance by 13% on revenue and 28% on EPS
Abramsky calls the miss against analysts expectations "transitional", which seems clear.
And then he sets his own projection at 9% under Apple's own, on revenue and 14% under Apple's own on earnings.
What sort of game is being played here?
Is called "Speculation"
Remember oil prices?
From wiki:
"Speculators may rely on an asset appreciating in price due to any of a number of factors that cannot be well enough understood by the speculator to make an investment-quality decision. Some such factors are shifting consumer tastes, fluctuating economic conditions, buyers' changing perceptions of the worth of a stock security, economic factors associated with market timing, the factors associated with solely chart-based analysis, and the many influences over the short-term movement of securities"
This is exactly like a weatherman predicting sunny with a high of 85, and then clamoring about the weather's disappointing turnout for being sunny and 82.
Also, who the fuck cares? 6 BILLION in profit, a miss? Nope. RECORD Mac sales, disappointing? Nope. $100Bn in sales? Astounding. Sounds like a party to me. But someone always has to complain when they expect too much.
These Wall Street guys crack me up. They are playing everybody. I'll bet many had placed bets that Apple's stock would fall, then they worked hard spreading the iPhone 5 rumors, and, when their predictions didn't bear fruit, they act as if it's Apple not performing, then they laugh all the way to the bank.
Apple did just fine, and as they themselves had predicted. That also must bug the heck out of WS, who can't get anything right.
I completely agree! I despise these alleged "analysts" that say if a particular company doesn't meet "their" expectations, then there is a problem. The only problem is with the stupid analysts themselves. We really need to stop the nonsense, fire all the analysts, and just go back to looking at a companies earnings AFTER the quarter, without any expectations from some idiot sitting there trying to "predict" what a company is supposed to do. It is very obvious that Apple knows what it is doing, and Wall Street doesn't have a clue.
Right now, I don't buy AAPL unless it's below 375 - sell when it gets up over 410. The machine traders play it on $5 variations @ 3000 trades per second.
AAPL only got as low as $393 - before I went to bed, last night. Already back up to $400 in premarket, this morning. So, no trade for this cranky old geek.
It's a good strategy. I hold some long also. But for some quick returns on cash, very nice. Better than a bank.
So a group of people in the financial markets says Apple had a weak quarter and we are supposed to what? Cry. Apple has what 80 billion dollars in cash. Really what company has that much cash sitting around? Who gives a crap what the analyst says. Apple is strong and will remain that way because they get it. They understand what makes us tick. We love Apple because it just works so screw the analyst.
No one cares whether you cry, chant meaningless Apple slogans or do whatever.
What's meaningful this time is not the analysts' *disappointment* but rather Apple's own attitude. When Oppenheimer started pointing fingers at rumors, it is a defensive posture. It was unnecessary and frankly not befitting of Apple. Clearly, they were expecting higher numbers.
OCCUPY WALL STREET. These people have no connection to the real world anymore, and do not contribute in any significant way to US and global society. Their time has come. Wall Street, Bankers and many Politicians do not have a clue what is going on and do not create nor deliver any real value to both the economy and human society in general. Stop believing their lies, stop supporting their decadence.
We are the 100% that are responsible to ourselves and each other to STOP BEING SCAMMED. Would you let a thief simply take five dollars from your wallet every time you leave the house? Wall street steals thousands, maybe tens of thousands from everyone every year.
Here's the real irony. Apple has $80 billion dollars. That's *real money*, not the made up stuff Wall Street plays with. Due to the fractional reserve system Apple itself can be an $800 billion dollar bank.
We've read: APPLE IS WORTH MORE THAN ALL OF THE EUROZONE BANKS
Now, that metric is by market capitalisation alone.
Let's look at actual financial reserves.
With Apple's $80billion dollars in assets it can also be a bank worth OVER $800 BILLION DOLLARS due to the fractional reserve system. And that's using the 10% Basel-whatever standard which is higher than what most banks capital cushions are.
Think I'm making sh1t up? Let's look at Citigroup, which was "too big too fail" and given just disgusting amounts of bailout money:
Yes, it has three times more "equity" than Apple but Apple's $80billion in reserves is arguably more liquid than this "equity" or "capital cushion" Citigroup has. Annual revenue? Beaten by Apple. Net income? Easily beaten by Apple.
This is the biggest ever dip in iPhone sales ever (both in absolute numbers and in %?). This is the real disappointment (as opposed to not meeting analyst predictions). The cause is clear.
Argue all you want about Apple not being late because they never announced a date. Not shipping a new iPhone in July was a surprise and disappointment. The market reacted. This should not have been a surprise. Apple should not have blamed anyone but themselves. 2012 will be interesting because their stray from a predictable pattern will create more chaos for customers accustomed to being able to plan their Apple purchases.
OCCUPY WALL STREET. These people have no connection to the real world anymore, and do not contribute in any significant way to US and global society. Their time has come. Wall Street, Bankers and many Politicians do not have a clue what is going on and do not create nor deliver any real value to both the economy and human society in general. Stop believing their lies, stop supporting their decadence.
We are the 100% that are responsible to ourselves and each other to STOP BEING SCAMMED. Would you let a thief simply take five dollars from your wallet every time you leave the house?
Take a pill, dude. Are you going to bring up the nuclear disaster in Japan too?
This is the biggest ever dip in iPhone sales ever (both in absolute numbers and in %?). This is the real disappointment (as opposed to not meeting analyst predictions). The cause is clear.
Argue all you want about Apple not being late because they never announced a date. Not shipping a new iPhone in July was a surprise and disappointment. The market reacted. This should not have been a surprise. Apple should not have blamed anyone but themselves. 2012 will be interesting because their stray from a predictable pattern will create more chaos for customers accustomed to being able to plan their Apple purchases.
Secrecy is not always a good thing.
I think you're right, and it's become obvious... iPhone 4S sales have been disappointing so far.
Apple exceeded the guidance estimates they gave last quarter. It only delivered less than the wall street crystal ball gazers guessed at. In my book thats 'double winning'
Stock price is based on expectations of earnings more than company guidance for earnings, so you have the incorrect baseline for promoting an escalating stock price.
Did Apple do bad? No. Did they do what would be required to push the stock price up to $450 in the next month? Doesn't seem like it. Where will the stock be at the end of the year? Million dollar question.
Comments
Hmm... Not a big deal.
I can live with that.
Before opening the stock is already just over $400.
It'll be back up around $420, if not more by the end of the week.
Then Gallup comes out with this absolutely fraudulent ``poll'' about how 2/3rds of the US is anger at Congress and NOT WALL STREET.
My rear end we aren't angry at Wall Street, the Banks and the Congressional leaders that were bribed.
It's a soup of anger.
...Want to be as good as any analyst or blogger (indie)?
1. Make a spreasheet with the above data.
2. Adjust the unit sales based on your own feeling.
3. Adjust the ASPs (prices) to something closer to what is reported by Apple. As opposed to my guesses here.
4. Add a row to your spreadsheet for profits (use similar methods).
5. Update your spreadsheet quarterly.
I think this can be no more than a 15 minute homework assignment. Maybe 30 minutes the first time and 15 minutes each quarter thereafter. As an investor for the long term I mostly care about:
1. Sustainable competitive advantage
2. Headroom for growth
3. Strong execution
4. Excellent R&D.
Market gyrations are expected. Guidance and quarterly estimates only serve the purpose of reinforcing the headroom cow growth bullet point. The beauty of Apple is the price gyrations allow an ability to acquire at lower prices over time.
Exactly. What I recommend and what I do.
Right now, I don't buy AAPL unless it's below 375 - sell when it gets up over 410. The machine traders play it on $5 variations @ 3000 trades per second.
AAPL only got as low as $393 - before I went to bed, last night. Already back up to $400 in premarket, this morning. So, no trade for this cranky old geek.
RBC
Mike Abramsky of RBC Capital Markets told investors that Apple's first miss in five years was "transitional." He also viewed the company's guidance as unusually strong. According to him, Apple may see "strong catalysts ahead."
The analyst did warn, though, that the miss could spark near term volatility in Apple's stock "pending improved investor visibility to forward catalysts," such as the iPhone 4S product cycle and strong growth in Asia.
RBC had projected $34 billion in revenue and $8.00 in earnings per share next quarter, compared to Apple's guidance of $37 billion in revenue and $9.30 EPS.
[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]
I am very confused by Mike Abramsky / RBCs position
Apple beats its own guidance by 13% on revenue and 28% on EPS
Abramsky calls the miss against analysts expectations "transitional", which seems clear.
And then he sets his own projection at 9% under Apple's own, on revenue and 14% under Apple's own on earnings.
What sort of game is being played here?
They are the ones to blame in any case... Record quarter and is a disappointment?
LMAO...
I am very confused by Mike Abramsky / RBCs position
Apple beats its own guidance by 13% on revenue and 28% on EPS
Abramsky calls the miss against analysts expectations "transitional", which seems clear.
And then he sets his own projection at 9% under Apple's own, on revenue and 14% under Apple's own on earnings.
What sort of game is being played here?
Is called "Speculation"
Remember oil prices?
From wiki:
"Speculators may rely on an asset appreciating in price due to any of a number of factors that cannot be well enough understood by the speculator to make an investment-quality decision. Some such factors are shifting consumer tastes, fluctuating economic conditions, buyers' changing perceptions of the worth of a stock security, economic factors associated with market timing, the factors associated with solely chart-based analysis, and the many influences over the short-term movement of securities"
Also, who the fuck cares? 6 BILLION in profit, a miss? Nope. RECORD Mac sales, disappointing? Nope. $100Bn in sales? Astounding. Sounds like a party to me. But someone always has to complain when they expect too much.
These Wall Street guys crack me up. They are playing everybody. I'll bet many had placed bets that Apple's stock would fall, then they worked hard spreading the iPhone 5 rumors, and, when their predictions didn't bear fruit, they act as if it's Apple not performing, then they laugh all the way to the bank.
Apple did just fine, and as they themselves had predicted. That also must bug the heck out of WS, who can't get anything right.
I completely agree! I despise these alleged "analysts" that say if a particular company doesn't meet "their" expectations, then there is a problem. The only problem is with the stupid analysts themselves. We really need to stop the nonsense, fire all the analysts, and just go back to looking at a companies earnings AFTER the quarter, without any expectations from some idiot sitting there trying to "predict" what a company is supposed to do. It is very obvious that Apple knows what it is doing, and Wall Street doesn't have a clue.
Exactly. What I recommend and what I do.
Right now, I don't buy AAPL unless it's below 375 - sell when it gets up over 410. The machine traders play it on $5 variations @ 3000 trades per second.
AAPL only got as low as $393 - before I went to bed, last night. Already back up to $400 in premarket, this morning. So, no trade for this cranky old geek.
It's a good strategy. I hold some long also. But for some quick returns on cash, very nice. Better than a bank.
So a group of people in the financial markets says Apple had a weak quarter and we are supposed to what? Cry. Apple has what 80 billion dollars in cash. Really what company has that much cash sitting around? Who gives a crap what the analyst says. Apple is strong and will remain that way because they get it. They understand what makes us tick. We love Apple because it just works so screw the analyst.
No one cares whether you cry, chant meaningless Apple slogans or do whatever.
What's meaningful this time is not the analysts' *disappointment* but rather Apple's own attitude. When Oppenheimer started pointing fingers at rumors, it is a defensive posture. It was unnecessary and frankly not befitting of Apple. Clearly, they were expecting higher numbers.
We are the 100% that are responsible to ourselves and each other to STOP BEING SCAMMED. Would you let a thief simply take five dollars from your wallet every time you leave the house? Wall street steals thousands, maybe tens of thousands from everyone every year.
Here's the real irony. Apple has $80 billion dollars. That's *real money*, not the made up stuff Wall Street plays with. Due to the fractional reserve system Apple itself can be an $800 billion dollar bank.
We've read: APPLE IS WORTH MORE THAN ALL OF THE EUROZONE BANKS
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...77I46520110819
Now, that metric is by market capitalisation alone.
Let's look at actual financial reserves.
With Apple's $80billion dollars in assets it can also be a bank worth OVER $800 BILLION DOLLARS due to the fractional reserve system. And that's using the 10% Basel-whatever standard which is higher than what most banks capital cushions are.
Think I'm making sh1t up? Let's look at Citigroup, which was "too big too fail" and given just disgusting amounts of bailout money:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citigroup
Revenue\t US$ 86.601 billion (2010)[2]
Operating income\t US$ 10.951 billion (2010)[2]
Net income\t US$ 10.602 billion (2010)[2]
Total assets\t US$ 1.914 trillion (2010)[2]
Total equity\t US$ 163.468 billion (2010)[2]
Yes, it has three times more "equity" than Apple but Apple's $80billion in reserves is arguably more liquid than this "equity" or "capital cushion" Citigroup has. Annual revenue? Beaten by Apple. Net income? Easily beaten by Apple.
Argue all you want about Apple not being late because they never announced a date. Not shipping a new iPhone in July was a surprise and disappointment. The market reacted. This should not have been a surprise. Apple should not have blamed anyone but themselves. 2012 will be interesting because their stray from a predictable pattern will create more chaos for customers accustomed to being able to plan their Apple purchases.
Secrecy is not always a good thing.
OCCUPY WALL STREET. These people have no connection to the real world anymore, and do not contribute in any significant way to US and global society. Their time has come. Wall Street, Bankers and many Politicians do not have a clue what is going on and do not create nor deliver any real value to both the economy and human society in general. Stop believing their lies, stop supporting their decadence.
We are the 100% that are responsible to ourselves and each other to STOP BEING SCAMMED. Would you let a thief simply take five dollars from your wallet every time you leave the house?
Take a pill, dude. Are you going to bring up the nuclear disaster in Japan too?
I am very confused by Mike Abramsky / RBCs position
Apple beats its own guidance by 13% on revenue and 28% on EPS
Abramsky calls the miss against analysts expectations "transitional", which seems clear.
And then he sets his own projection at 9% under Apple's own, on revenue and 14% under Apple's own on earnings.
What sort of game is being played here?
No games. It's about the iphones. Even Apple called the numbers transitional. Stop blaming the analysts.
This is the biggest ever dip in iPhone sales ever (both in absolute numbers and in %?). This is the real disappointment (as opposed to not meeting analyst predictions). The cause is clear.
Argue all you want about Apple not being late because they never announced a date. Not shipping a new iPhone in July was a surprise and disappointment. The market reacted. This should not have been a surprise. Apple should not have blamed anyone but themselves. 2012 will be interesting because their stray from a predictable pattern will create more chaos for customers accustomed to being able to plan their Apple purchases.
Secrecy is not always a good thing.
I think you're right, and it's become obvious... iPhone 4S sales have been disappointing so far.
Apple exceeded the guidance estimates they gave last quarter. It only delivered less than the wall street crystal ball gazers guessed at. In my book thats 'double winning'
Stock price is based on expectations of earnings more than company guidance for earnings, so you have the incorrect baseline for promoting an escalating stock price.
Did Apple do bad? No. Did they do what would be required to push the stock price up to $450 in the next month? Doesn't seem like it. Where will the stock be at the end of the year? Million dollar question.