IDC predicts PC users won't upgrade to Windows 8, tablet sales will be "disappointing"
Microsoft's Windows 8 is still a year away, but IDC is already predicting that the new release will be "largely irrelevant" to conventional PC users and that its ability to sell tablets will be "disappointing."
While bullish about Microsoft's prospects for selling server editions of the new Windows 8, IDC states that "Windows 8 will be largely irrelevant to the users of traditional PCs, and we expect effectively no upgrade activity from Windows 7 to Windows 8 in that form factor," according to an overview of the report by Computerworld.
The reason Windows 8 is expected to stoke so few upgrades is because it won't offer much to existing PC users, aiming primarily at giving the existing Windows 7 a layer of "Metro" styled interfaces that Microsoft hopes to enable Windows to ship on iPad-like tablet hardware.
In addition to adding the Metro interface, which originated on the Zune before being adapted to Windows Phone 7 last year, the other major change in Windows 8 will be new support for ARM processors, enabling "Windows" to run on a new class of battery efficient new mobile devices.
"There will be intense scrutiny on Microsoft?s ability to deliver a successful tablet experience aboard both x86-based tablets and on devices running ARM processors," IDC notes in its report, which states that the firm expects Windows 8 tablet sales to be "disappointing" next year.
"This is a tall order for Microsoft, and while the x86 tablet strategy makes sense as a transitional solution for today?s PC users, it will be the ARM-based devices that need to shine and clear a high bar already set by Apple.?
iOS vs Metro mobile devices
However, porting Windows 8 to ARM won't enable new devices to run existing Windows desktop software, all of which will need to be rewritten for the ARM chip. Apple faced similar issues in porting its Mac OS from 68k to PowerPC and eventually Intel processors, but at each transition, Apple included software to run existing Mac titles in emulation. Microsoft has announced it will not.
Apple also ported and refined Mac OS X to ARM-based mobile devices, rebranding the platform as iPhone OS and eventually iOS. However, Apple has never attempted to shoehorn existing Mac apps on iOS, instead rebuilding its own apps from scratch, suited to the unique environment of the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad. Microsoft has issued conflicting remarks about its software plans for Windows 8 tablets.
Apple spent years bringing its Pages, Keynote and Numbers apps from iWork and its iMovie and Garage Band apps from the iLife suite to iOS as mobile-optimized, touch based apps. In contrast, Microsoft has only suggested that it is still in the early conceptual stages of contemplating how its flagship Office apps might run in Windows 8's Metro environment.
Microsoft may ditch consumer PC market to focus on enterprise, licensing
The expectation that Microsoft will do well in selling Windows 8 to the server market but fail to entice consumers or IT departments to upgrade their desktops (many corporations have just finished upgrading to Windows 7, and typically plan to skip every other version of Windows, as many did previously with Windows Vista) could further entrench Microsoft into an enterprise market niche.
Apple has continued to eat up PC share among consumers, effectively owing all sales of both $1000 and up PCs as well as the vast majority of tablet purchases. The popularity of MacBook Air and Pro models have also increasingly worked Apple's PC sales into enterprise markets, following a surge of iOS devices that IT managers have relented much resistance to supporting.
In reaction to the success of the iPhone, Microsoft has increasingly worked to license its technologies to support Apple's devices, entering into a high profile agreement to license protocols related to its Exchange Server for push messaging just as the iPhone turned one year old. This year, rumors have surfaced indicating that Microsoft will also port its Office suite to the iPad, following Apple's own efforts to deliver iWork.
While bullish about Microsoft's prospects for selling server editions of the new Windows 8, IDC states that "Windows 8 will be largely irrelevant to the users of traditional PCs, and we expect effectively no upgrade activity from Windows 7 to Windows 8 in that form factor," according to an overview of the report by Computerworld.
The reason Windows 8 is expected to stoke so few upgrades is because it won't offer much to existing PC users, aiming primarily at giving the existing Windows 7 a layer of "Metro" styled interfaces that Microsoft hopes to enable Windows to ship on iPad-like tablet hardware.
In addition to adding the Metro interface, which originated on the Zune before being adapted to Windows Phone 7 last year, the other major change in Windows 8 will be new support for ARM processors, enabling "Windows" to run on a new class of battery efficient new mobile devices.
"There will be intense scrutiny on Microsoft?s ability to deliver a successful tablet experience aboard both x86-based tablets and on devices running ARM processors," IDC notes in its report, which states that the firm expects Windows 8 tablet sales to be "disappointing" next year.
"This is a tall order for Microsoft, and while the x86 tablet strategy makes sense as a transitional solution for today?s PC users, it will be the ARM-based devices that need to shine and clear a high bar already set by Apple.?
iOS vs Metro mobile devices
However, porting Windows 8 to ARM won't enable new devices to run existing Windows desktop software, all of which will need to be rewritten for the ARM chip. Apple faced similar issues in porting its Mac OS from 68k to PowerPC and eventually Intel processors, but at each transition, Apple included software to run existing Mac titles in emulation. Microsoft has announced it will not.
Apple also ported and refined Mac OS X to ARM-based mobile devices, rebranding the platform as iPhone OS and eventually iOS. However, Apple has never attempted to shoehorn existing Mac apps on iOS, instead rebuilding its own apps from scratch, suited to the unique environment of the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad. Microsoft has issued conflicting remarks about its software plans for Windows 8 tablets.
Apple spent years bringing its Pages, Keynote and Numbers apps from iWork and its iMovie and Garage Band apps from the iLife suite to iOS as mobile-optimized, touch based apps. In contrast, Microsoft has only suggested that it is still in the early conceptual stages of contemplating how its flagship Office apps might run in Windows 8's Metro environment.
Microsoft may ditch consumer PC market to focus on enterprise, licensing
The expectation that Microsoft will do well in selling Windows 8 to the server market but fail to entice consumers or IT departments to upgrade their desktops (many corporations have just finished upgrading to Windows 7, and typically plan to skip every other version of Windows, as many did previously with Windows Vista) could further entrench Microsoft into an enterprise market niche.
Apple has continued to eat up PC share among consumers, effectively owing all sales of both $1000 and up PCs as well as the vast majority of tablet purchases. The popularity of MacBook Air and Pro models have also increasingly worked Apple's PC sales into enterprise markets, following a surge of iOS devices that IT managers have relented much resistance to supporting.
In reaction to the success of the iPhone, Microsoft has increasingly worked to license its technologies to support Apple's devices, entering into a high profile agreement to license protocols related to its Exchange Server for push messaging just as the iPhone turned one year old. This year, rumors have surfaced indicating that Microsoft will also port its Office suite to the iPad, following Apple's own efforts to deliver iWork.
Comments
Windows 8 relies heavily on touch, and that is something which is completely foreign and strange to most Windows users.
Windows tablets won't make much of a dent into anything. Microsoft should concentrate on making Xboxes.
And Ms is porting office to ios so they also have an ARM version for win8 tablets
Microsoft can't make anything original. The start button takes you too a start type screen that is supposed to mimic a portable device. Kinda like launch pad on os x. Microsoft copy's Apple. What a piece of crap.
I won't be upgrading to Windows UN-Gr8 either, from what I've seen it's absolute crap.
I see that nickname catching on in a BIG BIG way. Well done sir.
They will still sell loads of win8 oem with all the new hardware.
And Ms is porting office to ios so they also have an ARM version for win8 tablets
MS would be better off porting MS-Works to ARM... iOS and whatever!
Windows users aren't cutting edge people and these kind of people are slow to adapt to new technologies and evolving trends.
Way to generalise about hundreds of millions of people. Some of them are cutting-edge people and some of them are not - just like with Mac OS.
Microsoft can't make anything original. The start button takes you too a start type screen that is supposed to mimic a portable device. Kinda like launch pad on os x. Microsoft copy's Apple. What a piece of crap.
Are you saying that anything which uses a grid of icons is copying Apple?! Icon-based layouts were around long before Mac OS existed and they'll be around long after it's gone.
Besides, Metro isn't really anything like Launchpad. Launchpad is static icons, where Metro is live tiles. Big difference.
Anyway, most of you are missing the point, which is that Microsoft doesn't really give two hoots if hardly any users buy individual licences of Windows 8. They will make the vast majority of their money from OEMs and enterprises, like they always do. Buyers of OEM PCs buy whatever OS they are given.
There is no way I will upgrade from Windows 7 to Windows 8. Metro is a cruel joke!
Windows XP was the Fisher Price edition
Windows XP has sold over half a billion copies, and still commands about a third of the OS market ten years after it was released.
I'd say that's pretty good going for a Fisher Price product.
You get shit upon.
Microsoft - I hope you learned your lesson.
Microsoft's Windows 8 is still a year away, but IDC is already predicting that the new release will be "largely irrelevant" to conventional PC users and that its ability to sell tablets will be "disappointing."
Big deal - and no surprise.
All desktop OSs have gotten mature enough that there's no longer any great reason to upgrade. Going from Win3.1 to Win95 was nearly a no-brainer. Going from Windows Vista to Windows 7 was a no-brainer. Going from OS X 10.1 to 10.2 was an easy decision. OS X 10.4 to 10.5 was fairly easy.
Windows 7 to Windows 8? OS X Snow Leopard to Lion? Meh.
The OS war is over..
MS won the OS war!
The new war is the Mobile OS war...
MS has yet to field an army...
The OS war may have already been won/lost!
This is what happens when you do not renew with IDC (Gartner, etc.).
You get shit upon.
Microsoft - I hope you learned your lesson.
@davebarnes you get what you pay for... Sad, but true!
Microsoft may ditch consumer PC market
Gotta love these analysts.