It may be VERY easy for you, but the vast majority of iPhone users don't jailbreak. For them, it's easier to go to the App Store and pay their 99 cents. That's why the real money to be made is off of iOS.
This is probably true more often than we realize. Here's one data point. I was talking to my nephew over Thanksgiving - an Android fan, but contemplating a used iPhone to jailbreak.
I asked him exactly what it was that he wished to jailbreak the iPhone for, and he gave me a list of possibilities. Told him to go browse the App Store.
It wasn't even the end of the evening by when he had decided it was: (i) utterly pointless to be jailbreaking an iPhone; and (ii) perhaps time to jettison his Android phone (but his mom wouldn't allow him do it before the end of contract).
Speaking from a developers standpoint ... how exactly does Mr. Schmidt propose the fragmentation issue will be resolved in 6 months? Magic?
I develop for Android, but it's a MAJOR pain the a, because maintaining performance and user experience across all the various devices using the Android OS (not to mention the various iterations of the Android OS) is like trying to nail jell-o to a wall. It's lightyears easier, and more productive, to develop on the iOS platform.
I make a little bit off of Android ... just enough really to justify the effort. I make A LOT off of iOS devices, and it doesn't require a 10th of the effort.
Won't be happening at the design studio where I work. I'm booked solid for the next six moths doing nothing but iOS development. Android hasn't even been mentioned let alone considered.
As far as the tools comments go I agree, developing for Android is a bag of hurt. However, MonoDroid looks promising. I did an iOS app with Mono and it was ok, but not enough to make me move away from Xcode. It would be ironic that one of the better Android development tools ends up being based on a Microsoft technology.
Not a chance. It doesn't matter how good the Android tools get or how many apps are downloaded. Android users just aren't willing to pay for apps in the same way that iOS users are.
I can understand prioritising development for Android if your app is free and it's just a conduit to other services. But if you actually want to sell your app for money, the Android Market is a dead loss.
I'm one of the biggest Apple fans in the world, I've been buying every generation of their products since 1980. And this all seems like "deja vu all over again." Every time Apple creates a great product, with plenty of awesome development tools (I've worked with many of them), and even programs to curate the user experience. But in the long run, they always come in a distant second place. Alone, they simply can't compete with an entire industry.
I don't believe Schmidt's time frame is right, but I really don't see why this ride around the carousel is going to be different from the last. iOS will live and thrive like the Mac, but in 1, 3, or 5 years I suspect a single company can't compete against the entire Android hardware development mob. iOs will become the 10% world-wide market share in hardware and applications will be forced to follow.
Downer I know, but history does tend to repeat itself.
Hasn't this topic already been beaten to death? Every few months someone somewhere (pundits, analist, CEO's) say Android is going to beat-up on iOS, but it hasn't happened yet.
Michael Dell's comment about shutting Apple down and giving money back to investors should be on every CEO's desk to remind them to refrain from making comments that will bite them in the ass, 6 months or even ten years from now.
Having said that, Schmidt wasn't going to call Android a PoS, was he? He needs to big-it-up to benefit from the ad revenue-stream. I know a number of people who got multiple Android handsets on the cheap, and most of them are sitting in drawers unused or flogged-off on fleabay or at car-boot markets -- either an easy way to make a bit of cash at the expense of the network or a sure sign of buyer's remorse.
I don't believe Schmidt's time frame is right, but I really don't see why this ride around the carousel is going to be different from the last. iOS will live and thrive like the Mac, but in 1, 3, or 5 years I suspect a single company can't compete against the entire Android hardware development mob. iOs will become the 10% world-wide market share in hardware and applications will be forced to follow.
TBH I think Apple acknowledges that. You can't dominate a whole market with a small range of premium-priced products. But Apple's profit margins are so large compared to other hardware manufacturers, and their software ecosystem is so compelling, that market share ceases to matter too much. It's no good having the majority of the market if you're making $5 on each device.
I'm one of the biggest Apple fans in the world, I've been buying every generation of their products since 1980. And this all seems like "deja vu all over again." Every time Apple creates a great product, with plenty of awesome development tools (I've worked with many of them), and even programs to curate the user experience. But in the long run, they always come in a distant second place. Alone, they simply can't compete with an entire industry.
I don't believe Schmidt's time frame is right, but I really don't see why this ride around the carousel is going to be different from the last. iOS will live and thrive like the Mac, but in 1, 3, or 5 years I suspect a single company can't compete against the entire Android hardware development mob. iOs will become the 10% world-wide market share in hardware and applications will be forced to follow.
Downer I know, but history does tend to repeat itself.
If Google would overhaul their app store and make it work more like Apple's, then Android app development could be profitable.
Right now there's just no money in it. You just don't make back your development cost.
Even if every dumb phone user switched to Androind, that wouldn't change the fact that all of the mobile app revenue would still be in the iOS space. Google needs to take simple steps to make app sales better for developer. The ball is in Google's court.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetz
There'll be lots of comments about how Android is unprofitable for developers and such. Whatever. All this talk is reminiscent of all the threads that said Android would never ever outsell the iPhone (and later when the goalpost moved iOS). Even the supporting arguments have changed. It used to be that nobody would ever want or buy an Android device. Now the argument is that those who buy thme are cheapskates. I'm probably missing a few more stereotypes in here. Others will add them I'm sure.
I predict that Android will buy out Apple and Apple will then buy Android and then they will sell each other and then develop apps with each other then sell the apps to one another then........
I'm one of the biggest Apple fans in the world, I've been buying every generation of their products since 1980. And this all seems like "deja vu all over again." Every time Apple creates a great product, with plenty of awesome development tools (I've worked with many of them), and even programs to curate the user experience. But in the long run, they always come in a distant second place. Alone, they simply can't compete with an entire industry.
I don't believe Schmidt's time frame is right, but I really don't see why this ride around the carousel is going to be different from the last. iOS will live and thrive like the Mac, but in 1, 3, or 5 years I suspect a single company can't compete against the entire Android hardware development mob. iOs will become the 10% world-wide market share in hardware and applications will be forced to follow.
Downer I know, but history does tend to repeat itself.
... and I predict that Android will actually start losing market share by this time next year.
iOS might not end up the dominant OS... but I sure as hell don't see it at 10% in 5 years or even 10 years. I see iOS taking at least 30% of the mobile OS market in 5 years time with WinMobile not that far behind... leaving Android with the rest.
The tide will turn... but not the way that Eric is predicting.
I always appreciate these predictions from tech industry heavyweights. All we have to do is file them away for future reference and later enjoyment when typically, they prove to be simply posturing. As well, doesn't it always seem like the tech wannabes always have to bad mouth Apple when their own products don't deliver? So much envy, so little maturity. Eric really should know better - it's not just about how many you sold, but the amount of profit you get on each sale. Same is true for mobile developers; they'll always go where the money is for them. Just the usual PR spin for the "folks".
It's not posturing, he's telling outright lies to the media - and to his customers. Shame on you Eric Schmidt.
Funny, CEO Steve Jobs never used to make fake predictions and tell outright lies to the media and his customers, at least I can't think of any.
I can't see why any developer of a paid app would target Android first, if at all.
Free app developers, on the other hand, target the largest user base that's likely to download and use their apps. More eyes equals more ad impressions and/or more sales.
But convincing someone to download, install and run your app isn't easy. The average number of apps on a phone is really quite low and I believe the Android figure is lower than the iOS one. Then there's the whole issue of whether or not your app supports the version of Android that users have.
Which OS version to target?
Phones still under contract run 1.5, 1.6, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 and 4.0.
The majority of Android phones are never updated from the OS they shipped with.
Developing for older OSs involves trade-offs that can make your app less appealing and multiplies the testing effort.
Developing for new OSs leaves millions of users unable to run your app.
Which manufacturers/carriers to support?
Every manufacturer has its own UI layer and selection of hardware buttons
Hundreds of carriers around the world have exclusive phones, exclusive software, etc.
What screen size to target?
Phones available for sale today range from the minuscule 240x320 all the way up to 720x1280.
If your whole UI fits into 240x320 it's going to look like crap on many larger screens.
If your UI needs more than 240x320 then it's going to get cut off on small phones.
What screen ratio to target?
Phones available for sale today come in 4 different screen ratios from 1.33 to 1.778.
No matter what shape you target your UI will be stretched/compressed/cropped on a lot of phones.
I'm sure that Schmidt is just saying what he'd like to see happen (he can't really be blamed for that). However, if this is based upon some internal estimate by Google then I think they need to find some new analysts.
There'll be lots of comments about how Android is unprofitable for developers and such. Whatever. All this talk is reminiscent of all the threads that said Android would never ever outsell the iPhone (and later when the goalpost moved iOS). Even the supporting arguments have changed. It used to be that nobody would ever want or buy an Android device. Now the argument is that those who buy thme are cheapskates. I'm probably missing a few more stereotypes in here. Others will add them I'm sure.
I dunno if Schmidt is right, but I would certainly like to see some balance. More devleopers being platform agnostic would be nice. As a consumer, I don't really like having to buy certain hardware just to run certain software. I'd hope that some day they go one step further and allow somebody who bought an app on iOS to get the same app free on Android or vice versa (iTunes Match for apps?).
Why should you expect that ? If you buy MS Office for a PC, should you expect to get a free copy if you switch to a Mac ?
Comments
It may be VERY easy for you, but the vast majority of iPhone users don't jailbreak. For them, it's easier to go to the App Store and pay their 99 cents. That's why the real money to be made is off of iOS.
This is probably true more often than we realize. Here's one data point. I was talking to my nephew over Thanksgiving - an Android fan, but contemplating a used iPhone to jailbreak.
I asked him exactly what it was that he wished to jailbreak the iPhone for, and he gave me a list of possibilities. Told him to go browse the App Store.
It wasn't even the end of the evening by when he had decided it was: (i) utterly pointless to be jailbreaking an iPhone; and (ii) perhaps time to jettison his Android phone (but his mom wouldn't allow him do it before the end of contract).
I develop for Android, but it's a MAJOR pain the a, because maintaining performance and user experience across all the various devices using the Android OS (not to mention the various iterations of the Android OS) is like trying to nail jell-o to a wall. It's lightyears easier, and more productive, to develop on the iOS platform.
I make a little bit off of Android ... just enough really to justify the effort. I make A LOT off of iOS devices, and it doesn't require a 10th of the effort.
As far as the tools comments go I agree, developing for Android is a bag of hurt. However, MonoDroid looks promising. I did an iOS app with Mono and it was ok, but not enough to make me move away from Xcode. It would be ironic that one of the better Android development tools ends up being based on a Microsoft technology.
I would rather gouge my eyes out with a skewer.
I can understand prioritising development for Android if your app is free and it's just a conduit to other services. But if you actually want to sell your app for money, the Android Market is a dead loss.
I don't believe Schmidt's time frame is right, but I really don't see why this ride around the carousel is going to be different from the last. iOS will live and thrive like the Mac, but in 1, 3, or 5 years I suspect a single company can't compete against the entire Android hardware development mob. iOs will become the 10% world-wide market share in hardware and applications will be forced to follow.
Downer I know, but history does tend to repeat itself.
Michael Dell's comment about shutting Apple down and giving money back to investors should be on every CEO's desk to remind them to refrain from making comments that will bite them in the ass, 6 months or even ten years from now.
Having said that, Schmidt wasn't going to call Android a PoS, was he? He needs to big-it-up to benefit from the ad revenue-stream. I know a number of people who got multiple Android handsets on the cheap, and most of them are sitting in drawers unused or flogged-off on fleabay or at car-boot markets -- either an easy way to make a bit of cash at the expense of the network or a sure sign of buyer's remorse.
I don't believe Schmidt's time frame is right, but I really don't see why this ride around the carousel is going to be different from the last. iOS will live and thrive like the Mac, but in 1, 3, or 5 years I suspect a single company can't compete against the entire Android hardware development mob. iOs will become the 10% world-wide market share in hardware and applications will be forced to follow.
TBH I think Apple acknowledges that. You can't dominate a whole market with a small range of premium-priced products. But Apple's profit margins are so large compared to other hardware manufacturers, and their software ecosystem is so compelling, that market share ceases to matter too much. It's no good having the majority of the market if you're making $5 on each device.
I'm one of the biggest Apple fans in the world, I've been buying every generation of their products since 1980. And this all seems like "deja vu all over again." Every time Apple creates a great product, with plenty of awesome development tools (I've worked with many of them), and even programs to curate the user experience. But in the long run, they always come in a distant second place. Alone, they simply can't compete with an entire industry.
I don't believe Schmidt's time frame is right, but I really don't see why this ride around the carousel is going to be different from the last. iOS will live and thrive like the Mac, but in 1, 3, or 5 years I suspect a single company can't compete against the entire Android hardware development mob. iOs will become the 10% world-wide market share in hardware and applications will be forced to follow.
Downer I know, but history does tend to repeat itself.
'Downer' for whom?
Not for most of us here....
My headlight fluid refill company has 10 trillion shares, with each share worth 0 cents.
If it's all about volume, then I'm the largest company in the world.
Good Point!
Right now there's just no money in it. You just don't make back your development cost.
Even if every dumb phone user switched to Androind, that wouldn't change the fact that all of the mobile app revenue would still be in the iOS space. Google needs to take simple steps to make app sales better for developer. The ball is in Google's court.
There'll be lots of comments about how Android is unprofitable for developers and such. Whatever. All this talk is reminiscent of all the threads that said Android would never ever outsell the iPhone (and later when the goalpost moved iOS). Even the supporting arguments have changed. It used to be that nobody would ever want or buy an Android device. Now the argument is that those who buy thme are cheapskates. I'm probably missing a few more stereotypes in here. Others will add them I'm sure.
I'm one of the biggest Apple fans in the world, I've been buying every generation of their products since 1980. And this all seems like "deja vu all over again." Every time Apple creates a great product, with plenty of awesome development tools (I've worked with many of them), and even programs to curate the user experience. But in the long run, they always come in a distant second place. Alone, they simply can't compete with an entire industry.
I don't believe Schmidt's time frame is right, but I really don't see why this ride around the carousel is going to be different from the last. iOS will live and thrive like the Mac, but in 1, 3, or 5 years I suspect a single company can't compete against the entire Android hardware development mob. iOs will become the 10% world-wide market share in hardware and applications will be forced to follow.
Downer I know, but history does tend to repeat itself.
... and I predict that Android will actually start losing market share by this time next year.
iOS might not end up the dominant OS... but I sure as hell don't see it at 10% in 5 years or even 10 years. I see iOS taking at least 30% of the mobile OS market in 5 years time with WinMobile not that far behind... leaving Android with the rest.
The tide will turn... but not the way that Eric is predicting.
I always appreciate these predictions from tech industry heavyweights. All we have to do is file them away for future reference and later enjoyment when typically, they prove to be simply posturing. As well, doesn't it always seem like the tech wannabes always have to bad mouth Apple when their own products don't deliver? So much envy, so little maturity. Eric really should know better - it's not just about how many you sold, but the amount of profit you get on each sale. Same is true for mobile developers; they'll always go where the money is for them. Just the usual PR spin for the "folks".
It's not posturing, he's telling outright lies to the media - and to his customers. Shame on you Eric Schmidt.
Funny, CEO Steve Jobs never used to make fake predictions and tell outright lies to the media and his customers, at least I can't think of any.
Free app developers, on the other hand, target the largest user base that's likely to download and use their apps. More eyes equals more ad impressions and/or more sales.
But convincing someone to download, install and run your app isn't easy. The average number of apps on a phone is really quite low and I believe the Android figure is lower than the iOS one. Then there's the whole issue of whether or not your app supports the version of Android that users have.
Which OS version to target?
Phones still under contract run 1.5, 1.6, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 and 4.0.
The majority of Android phones are never updated from the OS they shipped with.
Developing for older OSs involves trade-offs that can make your app less appealing and multiplies the testing effort.
Developing for new OSs leaves millions of users unable to run your app.
Which manufacturers/carriers to support?
Every manufacturer has its own UI layer and selection of hardware buttons
Hundreds of carriers around the world have exclusive phones, exclusive software, etc.
What screen size to target?
Phones available for sale today range from the minuscule 240x320 all the way up to 720x1280.
If your whole UI fits into 240x320 it's going to look like crap on many larger screens.
If your UI needs more than 240x320 then it's going to get cut off on small phones.
What screen ratio to target?
Phones available for sale today come in 4 different screen ratios from 1.33 to 1.778.
No matter what shape you target your UI will be stretched/compressed/cropped on a lot of phones.
I'm sure that Schmidt is just saying what he'd like to see happen (he can't really be blamed for that).
Exactly.
"SHOCKING NEWS; Chairman talking up his own company"
There'll be lots of comments about how Android is unprofitable for developers and such. Whatever. All this talk is reminiscent of all the threads that said Android would never ever outsell the iPhone (and later when the goalpost moved iOS). Even the supporting arguments have changed. It used to be that nobody would ever want or buy an Android device. Now the argument is that those who buy thme are cheapskates. I'm probably missing a few more stereotypes in here. Others will add them I'm sure.
I dunno if Schmidt is right, but I would certainly like to see some balance. More devleopers being platform agnostic would be nice. As a consumer, I don't really like having to buy certain hardware just to run certain software. I'd hope that some day they go one step further and allow somebody who bought an app on iOS to get the same app free on Android or vice versa (iTunes Match for apps?).
Why should you expect that ? If you buy MS Office for a PC, should you expect to get a free copy if you switch to a Mac ?