Since January of 2007 Microsoft has gone from $31.21 to $25.95 .... down 17%. During the same timeframe Apple has INCREASED over 300% .... from $94.62 to $380.66. Personally, I don't think any amount of dividends would make it worthwhile choosing MSFT over Apple. IMHO dividends are usually used by companies whose "attractiveness" has stalled or worse yet, peaked.
Since January of 2007 Microsoft has gone from $31.21 to $25.95 .... down 17%. During the same timeframe Apple has INCREASED over 300% .... from $94.62 to $380.66. Personally, I don't think any amount of dividends would make it worthwhile choosing MSFT over Apple. IMHO dividends are usually used by companies whose "attractiveness" has stalled or worse yet, peaked.
I wouldn't touch MSFT stock either vs AAPL, I was just saying because a stock's price hasn't changed much, it doesn't mean you can't make any money off it.
The problem is that the subsequent quarters are not going to be that great. That's what the Street is perhaps afraid of. 4s holiday demand will run out of juice and then Apple will be left in the vacuum for 2-3 quarters in a row until iPhone 5 is out.
That's a foolish argument. First, there is no obvious sign of a slowdown.
Second, even if there IS a slowdown and Apple's earnings drop by 80%, it's still a better P/E than Amazon. Even if earnings drop by 50%, it's the same P/E as Google.
Projections should be based on most reasonable assumptions - not worst possible scenarios.
I can make a good argument that Apple is over priced right now. You can disagree with that but really there is no need to get emotional about it.
Then please feel free to do so. Let's see how 'good' your argument is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98
Not sure which argument is more foolish mine or yours. Holiday season is not over yet, thus no sign of slowdown...
That's why people look at year over year results rather than quarter over quarter. For years, every single quarter, Apple has been well ahead of the same quarter in the previous year. That percentage looks like it's actually growing rather than shrinking.
Since that removes your 'seasonality' argument, feel free to show the evidence that Apple is slowing down.
Several of you need to cut out the political rants. Regardless of your viewpoint, if it's political, it doesn't need to be articulated anywhere on AI except Political Outsider. When I get back, I'll start deleting comments.
The law of large numbers is affecting AAPL price. The market cap is huge and is already widely held with large % in most portfolios. It takes a lot of boost earnings.
Being a tech company, it will take a lot just to maintain the revenues for a sustained period... very different from a company like MCD, KO. Then there is the competition. That is why the PE keeps on getting compressed. With MCD, KO, etc it is not the Koreans are coming with their own junk food and Coke!
Apple will have to further establish itself as a consumer brand and a seller of content to calm down Wall Street. Theoretically, dividends do no matter. However, if the company makes $50/s per year and have $100B in cash, they could give $20/s per year for a 5% yield. Funds are hungry for yield.
Wizard69, I can't really engage with your off-topic rant, but I notice that you spell "lose" -- as in lose your shirt -- with two "o"s -- as in "loose their jobs." And then elsewhere I have seen you spell "too" -- as in "too much" -- with one "o" -- you say "to much." Are you sure you are competent to judge who is the most moronic president we have ever had? At least our current one knows enough about language to say "nuclear."
On topic, I agree with you that Apple's ongoing success, and its likely impetus in getting Samsung to expand in Texas, are the way economies do and should develop. I'm thinking that "the Apple effect" may soon be quantifiable in macroeconomic terms. There have to be secondary effects from putting a computer in everybody's pocket and hands.
The reality is every time this country gets a bug up it's ass about taxing the rich, taxing luxuries and the like, lots of working Americans loose their jobs.
I think this is backwards, and should read, "Every time lots of working Americans lose their jobs, this country gets a bug up its ass about taxing the rich." I don't think most Americans mind rich people being rich if they can make an honest living for themselves. But when unemployment doubles and there's talk about huge cuts at all levels of government, then we have a problem and it's reasonable to question whether record low personal income taxes for wealthy Americans is part of the solution or part of the problem.
The law of large numbers is affecting AAPL price. The market cap is huge and is already widely held with large % in most portfolios. It takes a lot of boost earnings.
That's it in a nutshell. Who's left to buy? Moreover, as the market itself begins to tank, widely-held Apple must inevitably sink to the 'water level'.
The good news being: When the market recovers, Apple is a must-have for everyone piling back in.
Then please feel free to do so. Let's see how 'good' your argument is.
That's why people look at year over year results rather than quarter over quarter. For years, every single quarter, Apple has been well ahead of the same quarter in the previous year. That percentage looks like it's actually growing rather than shrinking.
Since that removes your 'seasonality' argument, feel free to show the evidence that Apple is slowing down.
In the context of the Stock Market, short term outlook DOES matter. Also in case of Apple, seasonality is somewhat artificially induced. People are ready to buy cutting edge cell phones any time of a year but Apple delivers it only once.
What do you think happened in the quarter prior to 4s release. If it was not a slowdown then what? The same will happen in the first calendar quarters of 2012. And if iPhone LTE is not released by summer, sales will drop big time. The Street does not like these risks.
Being a tech company, it will take a lot just to maintain the revenues for a sustained period... very different from a company like MCD, KO. Then there is the competition. That is why the PE keeps on getting compressed. With MCD, KO, etc it is not the Koreans are coming with their own junk food and Coke!
That's not true. Apple doesn't have to keep growing to maintain the share price. The current share price is premised on either no growth or actually shrinking revenues (since the P/E is lower than the average tech company). Even if Apple does nothing at all, their revenues are likely to be at least flat, so the P/E is too low even with no growth.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjitMD
Apple will have to further establish itself as a consumer brand and a seller of content to calm down Wall Street. Theoretically, dividends do no matter. However, if the company makes $50/s per year and have $100B in cash, they could give $20/s per year for a 5% yield. Funds are hungry for yield.
This simple analysis is completely wrong. First, if they use some of the cash for dividends, it reduces the 'net worth' of the company by a comparable amount. For example, Apple has $100 B today - which is factored into the share price. If they give out $20 B in dividends, they only have $80 B left - which has a negative impact on share price.
Even if you want to use the 'pay out of future earnings' card, it still has the same effect. Let's say Apple adds $30 B in cash this quarter. If they don't pay dividends, they will have $130 B in cash. If they do pay $20 B, then they'll only have $110 B in cash, which would result in a lower share value.
If the investors are so eager to generate cash on a regular basis, they can simply sell off 3% of their AAPL ever quarter and get the same effect. Actually, it would be even better because the dividends will be taxed at regular rates (up to 39.6%) while if they sell the stock, they will pay only capital gains rates, and only on the difference between selling price and purchase price.
Dividends are one of those things that sounds better on paper than in reality. For a utility, they make a lot of sense. For a rapidly growing market leader? Not so much.
sadly their super-conservative (or nearly useless as the articles say) earnings outlook for the next quarter don't really help and pulsl the stock back down. There seems to be a spike after the initial earnings numbers, but as the outlook numbers come up and are then talked about in the conference call, the stock pulls back a bit. +10% in AH is +3 to +5% by the end of the next market day
Historically, tech shares ramp up in the calendar 4th quarter, and earnings simply justify this run-up. This year, Apple has been flat for 5 months, despite a 121% and 51% earnings growth in that timeframe.
The problem is that the broader market malaise has to get resolved and things need to get fixed in Europe to make that happen.
thank god apple's only concern is improving on their product. historically, they have seen themselves as their only competitor. it's served them well and will continue to do so.
Microsoft always deliver blowout numbers but their stock has been stuck in the 23-26 range for over 5 years...stop pumping Apple stock is not going anywhere anytime soon..
And in those 11 years, it's gone down 7 bucks. So glad I invested in AAPL, regardless of all the frustration this past year as an investor.
The problem is that the subsequent quarters are not going to be that great. That's what the Street is perhaps afraid of. 4s holiday demand will run out of juice and then Apple will be left in the vacuum for 2-3 quarters in a row until iPhone 5 is out.
Late Q1, early Q2 should see the release of iPad3 and the release of iPhone should follow 1 Quarter later ... the last iPhone Steve really worked on ... I just don't see the foot coming off the gas anytime soon.
Comments
they also pay a dividend
Since January of 2007 Microsoft has gone from $31.21 to $25.95 .... down 17%. During the same timeframe Apple has INCREASED over 300% .... from $94.62 to $380.66. Personally, I don't think any amount of dividends would make it worthwhile choosing MSFT over Apple. IMHO dividends are usually used by companies whose "attractiveness" has stalled or worse yet, peaked.
http://www.macrumors.com/2011/12/16/...-high-as-1400/
There are no overlords...
I could argue against almost every point that you made with facts, but here is neither the time nor the place for political action. Reported.
Since January of 2007 Microsoft has gone from $31.21 to $25.95 .... down 17%. During the same timeframe Apple has INCREASED over 300% .... from $94.62 to $380.66. Personally, I don't think any amount of dividends would make it worthwhile choosing MSFT over Apple. IMHO dividends are usually used by companies whose "attractiveness" has stalled or worse yet, peaked.
I wouldn't touch MSFT stock either vs AAPL, I was just saying because a stock's price hasn't changed much, it doesn't mean you can't make any money off it.
The problem is that the subsequent quarters are not going to be that great. That's what the Street is perhaps afraid of. 4s holiday demand will run out of juice and then Apple will be left in the vacuum for 2-3 quarters in a row until iPhone 5 is out.
That's a foolish argument. First, there is no obvious sign of a slowdown.
Second, even if there IS a slowdown and Apple's earnings drop by 80%, it's still a better P/E than Amazon. Even if earnings drop by 50%, it's the same P/E as Google.
Projections should be based on most reasonable assumptions - not worst possible scenarios.
That's a foolish argument. First, there is no obvious sign of a slowdown.
Not sure which argument is more foolish mine or yours. Holiday season is not over yet, thus no sign of slowdown...
I can make a good argument that Apple is over priced right now. You can disagree with that but really there is no need to get emotional about it.
Then please feel free to do so. Let's see how 'good' your argument is.
Not sure which argument is more foolish mine or yours. Holiday season is not over yet, thus no sign of slowdown...
That's why people look at year over year results rather than quarter over quarter. For years, every single quarter, Apple has been well ahead of the same quarter in the previous year. That percentage looks like it's actually growing rather than shrinking.
Since that removes your 'seasonality' argument, feel free to show the evidence that Apple is slowing down.
perspective employer
prospective.
Several of you need to cut out the political rants. Regardless of your viewpoint, if it's political, it doesn't need to be articulated anywhere on AI except Political Outsider. When I get back, I'll start deleting comments.
Being a tech company, it will take a lot just to maintain the revenues for a sustained period... very different from a company like MCD, KO. Then there is the competition. That is why the PE keeps on getting compressed. With MCD, KO, etc it is not the Koreans are coming with their own junk food and Coke!
Apple will have to further establish itself as a consumer brand and a seller of content to calm down Wall Street. Theoretically, dividends do no matter. However, if the company makes $50/s per year and have $100B in cash, they could give $20/s per year for a 5% yield. Funds are hungry for yield.
On topic, I agree with you that Apple's ongoing success, and its likely impetus in getting Samsung to expand in Texas, are the way economies do and should develop. I'm thinking that "the Apple effect" may soon be quantifiable in macroeconomic terms. There have to be secondary effects from putting a computer in everybody's pocket and hands.
The reality is every time this country gets a bug up it's ass about taxing the rich, taxing luxuries and the like, lots of working Americans loose their jobs.
I think this is backwards, and should read, "Every time lots of working Americans lose their jobs, this country gets a bug up its ass about taxing the rich." I don't think most Americans mind rich people being rich if they can make an honest living for themselves. But when unemployment doubles and there's talk about huge cuts at all levels of government, then we have a problem and it's reasonable to question whether record low personal income taxes for wealthy Americans is part of the solution or part of the problem.
The law of large numbers is affecting AAPL price. The market cap is huge and is already widely held with large % in most portfolios. It takes a lot of boost earnings.
That's it in a nutshell. Who's left to buy? Moreover, as the market itself begins to tank, widely-held Apple must inevitably sink to the 'water level'.
The good news being: When the market recovers, Apple is a must-have for everyone piling back in.
Then please feel free to do so. Let's see how 'good' your argument is.
That's why people look at year over year results rather than quarter over quarter. For years, every single quarter, Apple has been well ahead of the same quarter in the previous year. That percentage looks like it's actually growing rather than shrinking.
Since that removes your 'seasonality' argument, feel free to show the evidence that Apple is slowing down.
In the context of the Stock Market, short term outlook DOES matter. Also in case of Apple, seasonality is somewhat artificially induced. People are ready to buy cutting edge cell phones any time of a year but Apple delivers it only once.
What do you think happened in the quarter prior to 4s release. If it was not a slowdown then what? The same will happen in the first calendar quarters of 2012. And if iPhone LTE is not released by summer, sales will drop big time. The Street does not like these risks.
Being a tech company, it will take a lot just to maintain the revenues for a sustained period... very different from a company like MCD, KO. Then there is the competition. That is why the PE keeps on getting compressed. With MCD, KO, etc it is not the Koreans are coming with their own junk food and Coke!
That's not true. Apple doesn't have to keep growing to maintain the share price. The current share price is premised on either no growth or actually shrinking revenues (since the P/E is lower than the average tech company). Even if Apple does nothing at all, their revenues are likely to be at least flat, so the P/E is too low even with no growth.
Apple will have to further establish itself as a consumer brand and a seller of content to calm down Wall Street. Theoretically, dividends do no matter. However, if the company makes $50/s per year and have $100B in cash, they could give $20/s per year for a 5% yield. Funds are hungry for yield.
This simple analysis is completely wrong. First, if they use some of the cash for dividends, it reduces the 'net worth' of the company by a comparable amount. For example, Apple has $100 B today - which is factored into the share price. If they give out $20 B in dividends, they only have $80 B left - which has a negative impact on share price.
Even if you want to use the 'pay out of future earnings' card, it still has the same effect. Let's say Apple adds $30 B in cash this quarter. If they don't pay dividends, they will have $130 B in cash. If they do pay $20 B, then they'll only have $110 B in cash, which would result in a lower share value.
If the investors are so eager to generate cash on a regular basis, they can simply sell off 3% of their AAPL ever quarter and get the same effect. Actually, it would be even better because the dividends will be taxed at regular rates (up to 39.6%) while if they sell the stock, they will pay only capital gains rates, and only on the difference between selling price and purchase price.
Dividends are one of those things that sounds better on paper than in reality. For a utility, they make a lot of sense. For a rapidly growing market leader? Not so much.
sadly their super-conservative (or nearly useless as the articles say) earnings outlook for the next quarter don't really help and pulsl the stock back down. There seems to be a spike after the initial earnings numbers, but as the outlook numbers come up and are then talked about in the conference call, the stock pulls back a bit. +10% in AH is +3 to +5% by the end of the next market day
Historically, tech shares ramp up in the calendar 4th quarter, and earnings simply justify this run-up. This year, Apple has been flat for 5 months, despite a 121% and 51% earnings growth in that timeframe.
The problem is that the broader market malaise has to get resolved and things need to get fixed in Europe to make that happen.
I'd just like to point out that "blowout" is a superlative term and thus there is not really any such thing as a "big, bigger or biggest" blowout.
A blowout is a blowout. There are not small medium and large varieties.
You can point all you like, but most of us would defer to the dictionary. The Free Dictionary (online) says, "A lopsided victory or thorough defeat."
Others show, "an easy or one-sided victory," "a win by a large margin," etc.
Easy can be easier; large margins can be bigger. And lopsided can be ... well, you get the idea.
Educate us, Professor. Where do you get 'blowout' as so uniquely special??
i have no doubt apple will do just fine.
Microsoft always deliver blowout numbers but their stock has been stuck in the 23-26 range for over 5 years...stop pumping Apple stock is not going anywhere anytime soon..
And in those 11 years, it's gone down 7 bucks. So glad I invested in AAPL, regardless of all the frustration this past year as an investor.
The problem is that the subsequent quarters are not going to be that great. That's what the Street is perhaps afraid of. 4s holiday demand will run out of juice and then Apple will be left in the vacuum for 2-3 quarters in a row until iPhone 5 is out.
Late Q1, early Q2 should see the release of iPad3 and the release of iPhone should follow 1 Quarter later ... the last iPhone Steve really worked on ... I just don't see the foot coming off the gas anytime soon.