Redesigned iPhone 5, expanded iPad lineup anticipated from Apple in 2012
Apple's growth next year and beyond is expected to be driven by a redesigned iPhone, as well as a potential expansion of the iPad lineup into both lower and higher price points, according to a new analysis.
Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said in a note to investors on Wednesday that because Apple did not redesign any major hardware products in 2011, he believes significant changes could arrive in 2012. Chief among those would be a redesigned "iPhone 5," which he predicts will debut in mid-2012.
The launch of a so-called "iPhone 5" in 2012 would set the stage for outperformance in 2013, in Munster's eyes. He offered two scenarios for Apple's products in 2013: a "base case" and a "bull case."
In his base estimate, Munster sees Apple selling 142 million iPhone units, good for an 18 percent increase in revenue. In the bull case scenario, Apple sells 162 million iPhone units throughout 2013, amounting to a 35 percent increase in revenue.
Munster admitted his projected 14 percent total revenue growth for Apple in calendar 2013 is conservative. That would be a significant reduction from the 56 percent revenue growth he sees Apple earning in calendar 2011. The bull case sees Apple growing revenue 28 percent in calendar 2013.
Beyond the iPhone, Munster's model assumes Apple will just release one third-generation iPad to replace the current iPad 2. But if Apple decides to expand the iPad lineup beyond its current models and price points, he sees the company growing well beyond his current estimates.
Munster's calendar 2013 base estimate calls for 66 million iPads to be sold, representing an 11 percent increase in revenue from the estimates for 2012. But in his bull case, Apple would sell 77.5 million iPads and grow its revenue by 30 percent.
Apple could achieve those higher numbers if the company decides to expand the iPad lineup into both lower and higher price points, he believes. Currently, the iPad comes in three capacities of 16GB, 32GB and 64GB, with two different variations: Wi-Fi-only and 3G-capable.
Rumors and speculation of an expanded iPad lineup are not new, though Apple has yet to adjust its strategy. Last month, another analyst predicted that Apple will sell a third-generation iPad with a high-resolution Retina Display alongside a faster "iPad 2S" with the same screen resolution as the current iPad 2, but with a faster processor and Siri integration. He also predicted that Apple will continue to sell the iPad 2 at a lower price, much like the company already does with the iPhone 3GS.
Finally, Munster also believes that Apple could drive growth in the Mac platform with new form factors and a broader range of prices in calendar years 2012 and 2013. Reports have suggested Apple plans to redesign its MacBook Pro lineup in 2012, and also expand the MacBook Air line with a new 15-inch model.
Munster's base forecast calls for Apple to sell 24 million Macs in calendar 2013, a 15 percent increase from his estimates for 2012. The bull case sees Apple selling another 2 million Macs to reach 26 million, good for 20 percent growth in revenue.
Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said in a note to investors on Wednesday that because Apple did not redesign any major hardware products in 2011, he believes significant changes could arrive in 2012. Chief among those would be a redesigned "iPhone 5," which he predicts will debut in mid-2012.
The launch of a so-called "iPhone 5" in 2012 would set the stage for outperformance in 2013, in Munster's eyes. He offered two scenarios for Apple's products in 2013: a "base case" and a "bull case."
In his base estimate, Munster sees Apple selling 142 million iPhone units, good for an 18 percent increase in revenue. In the bull case scenario, Apple sells 162 million iPhone units throughout 2013, amounting to a 35 percent increase in revenue.
Munster admitted his projected 14 percent total revenue growth for Apple in calendar 2013 is conservative. That would be a significant reduction from the 56 percent revenue growth he sees Apple earning in calendar 2011. The bull case sees Apple growing revenue 28 percent in calendar 2013.
Beyond the iPhone, Munster's model assumes Apple will just release one third-generation iPad to replace the current iPad 2. But if Apple decides to expand the iPad lineup beyond its current models and price points, he sees the company growing well beyond his current estimates.
Munster's calendar 2013 base estimate calls for 66 million iPads to be sold, representing an 11 percent increase in revenue from the estimates for 2012. But in his bull case, Apple would sell 77.5 million iPads and grow its revenue by 30 percent.
Apple could achieve those higher numbers if the company decides to expand the iPad lineup into both lower and higher price points, he believes. Currently, the iPad comes in three capacities of 16GB, 32GB and 64GB, with two different variations: Wi-Fi-only and 3G-capable.
Rumors and speculation of an expanded iPad lineup are not new, though Apple has yet to adjust its strategy. Last month, another analyst predicted that Apple will sell a third-generation iPad with a high-resolution Retina Display alongside a faster "iPad 2S" with the same screen resolution as the current iPad 2, but with a faster processor and Siri integration. He also predicted that Apple will continue to sell the iPad 2 at a lower price, much like the company already does with the iPhone 3GS.
Finally, Munster also believes that Apple could drive growth in the Mac platform with new form factors and a broader range of prices in calendar years 2012 and 2013. Reports have suggested Apple plans to redesign its MacBook Pro lineup in 2012, and also expand the MacBook Air line with a new 15-inch model.
Munster's base forecast calls for Apple to sell 24 million Macs in calendar 2013, a 15 percent increase from his estimates for 2012. The bull case sees Apple selling another 2 million Macs to reach 26 million, good for 20 percent growth in revenue.
Comments
if it doesn't come with a 5" screen, a 10 GHz processor, a 20 Megapixel camera, 1080p video recording, a battery that lasts 10 months on standby, a metaphysical keyboard, 4G+ network capability, all-universe model, and an actual personal assistant, it will be a flop!
apple is doomed!
Does he get additional revenue for publishing this stuff? He must because his predictions are accurate at a rate only slightly above flipping a coin...
if it doesn't come with a 5" screen, a 10 GHz processor, a 20 Megapixel camera, 1080p video recording, a battery that lasts 10 months on standby, a metaphysical keyboard, 4G+ network capability, all-universe model, and an actual personal assistant, it will be a flop!
Hahaha!
Merry Christmas.
Last month, another analyst predicted that Apple will sell a third-generation iPad with a high-resolution Retina Display alongside a faster "iPad 2S" with the same screen resolution as the current iPad 2, but with a faster processor and Siri integration. He also predicted that Apple will continue to sell the iPad 2 at a lower price, much like the company already does with the iPhone 3GS.
I think they will do it exactly like they did originally with the 3gs. They keep the two 16 gig wifi only models of the iPad 2 on sale and knock $100 off them, targeting kids and such. If you want the better, faster, Siri etc you get the iPad 3 which could step up to 32GB as the base model
I swear Munster publishes this crap just to let it resonate in teh internets echo chamber.
This is the job of an analyst. They are supposed to predict how well a stock will do so investors know if they should buy, sell etc.
The trouble is that Apple does what Apple wants and that includes designing, announcing, selling and yes stock performance. So folks can't really predict as well and have to just repeat the rumors that are out there to have something to say. Even if the rumors don't make any sense to those that have a clue about tech
So the question is, What reason is there for a major redesign for the iPhone or iPad? It seems unlikely that new manufacturing processes will cause a shift to new materials (i.e., mass market carbon fibre doesn't seem to be possible yet) and there are no major functional changes on the horizon. Apple doesn't appear to think either the iPhone 4 or the iPad 2 is a major design misstep either. So I find it unlikely that either will see major redesigns. iPad is on an obvious trend of getting thinner and lighter and the display will probably see an upgrade, but none of that requires a major rethink of the design. iPhone could potentially have a larger screen but the same size due a smaller bezel (which may have been a manufacturing constraint; on the other hand, Apple may feel that 3.5" is the best size for usability reasons), but again, there's no reason to think it needs a major redesign. One thing that could prompt a major redesign of the iPhone is a different antenna system (we could file that under correcting a misstep; Antennagate was overblown but an external antenna might still not be the best choice going forward).
But anyway, my point is there are reasons Apple does what it does and those reasons are not typically "we need a new design every year to stay fresh", and acting as if they are makes for bad analysis.
So he says a new iPad with higher resolution but gimped processor, and one with a better processor and gimped resolution. As if Apple would make two sets of improvements and not allow the consumer to have both in one package? Seriously?! Who can read that and think he isn't off his rocker?
I predict the 16GB iPad 2, with and without 3G, will remain in production and be sold for $400+ brand new and the iPad 3 will replace the existing iPad 2 pricepoints.
Now, can I get paid for my brilliant predictions?
"We didn't get our precious number 5 after the name so we better get it next year."
It's moronic.
I swear Munster publishes this crap just to let it resonate in teh internets echo chamber. These statements are the equivalent of "Pope blesses people gather in Vatican Square", or "The President flew on Airforce 1".
Does he get additional revenue for publishing this stuff? He must because his predictions are accurate at a rate only slightly above flipping a coin...
I predict that we will have to hear Munster's crap again in 2012.
if it doesn't come with a 5" screen, a 10 GHz processor, a 20 Megapixel camera, 1080p video recording, a battery that lasts 10 months on standby, a metaphysical keyboard, 4G+ network capability, all-universe model, and an actual personal assistant, it will be a flop!
The iPhone4S already has 1080p video recording.
And its absolutely excellent.
J.
But not iPhone 5. Nope.
The phrase "no shit" comes to mind with these so called predictions. What on earth do these people get paid for?!
To read this site.
His speculation on multiple new iPads just seems weird. There is no precedence of Apple diversifying a product line in that way.
Overall, there is precedent with the iPod. Over time, Apple diversified the iPod product line greatly.
Even then, not every enhancement was necessarily rolled out from top to bottom. For instance, the click wheel showed up first in the iPod mini, while the original iPod still had the more awkward arrangement of the touch wheel with four touch buttons across the top.
But I agree, I did think that Apple would more likely put the fastest hardware together with the highest resolution screen. I had not considered they might do anything else.
For me, reading analysts isn't so much about them being completely correct, it's about thinking about future possibilities I had not considered, but which analysts sometimes bring up.
It reminds me of my favorite bumper sticker of all-time. "Cash, grass or ass - Nobody rides for free"