Kindle Fire cannibalized 1M to 2M iPad sales 'at most' this holiday

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
The launch of the $199 Amazon Kindle Fire had a detrimental effect on iPad sales for Apple, but the company is still expected to report record sales this quarter, a new report states.



Investment research firm Morgan Keenan on Tuesday trimmed its projected iPad sales for the holiday quarter from 16 million to 13 million. While less than previously expected, the 13 million total would easily best the record 11.2 million iPads Apple sold in the previous quarter.



Analyst Travis McCourt expects the iPad will generate 21.3 percent of revenue for Apple in the December quarter, up from 17.2 percent in the year-ago period, but also less than the 24.3 percent it represented in the September quarter. Part of his rationale for trimming projected iPad sales is Amazon's $199 Kindle Fire.



"Based on data from Amazon, we believe the Amazon Fire likely sold 4-5 million units this holiday season," McCourt said in a note to investors, "which probably means maybe 1-2 million cannibalized iPad sales at most."



Amazon revealed last week that it was selling more than a million Kindles per week leading up to Christmas. But the Kindle family includes Amazon's e-ink readers as well as the new Kindle Fire. Amazon did not provide specific sales data for any of its tablet-style hardware.







McCourt also on Tuesday increased his projected iPhone sales for the holiday quarter from 27 million to 29 million. He expects iPhone revenues will represent 47.5 percent of Apple's total revenues in the December quarter, up from 38.8 percent in the September quarter and 39.1 percent in the same period a year ago.



As for the Mac, McCourt has reduced his estimate from 4.9 million units to 4.8 million units over the holidays, which would be down from the 4.9 million Macs Apple sold in the September quarter. But that's a prediction that runs contrary to Apple's recent historical trends.



For example, a year ago Mac sales grew from 3.89 million in the September quarter to 4.1 million over the holidays. In 2009, Macs grew from 3 million sales to 3.36 million in the December quarter.



McCourt said 4.8 million Mac sales for Apple over the holidays would likely represent "another strong quarter of market share gains." He believes the global PC market will be largely flat year over year, while Apple will see 17 percent growth from 2010 over the same period.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 52
    tundraboytundraboy Posts: 1,613member
    No, no, no! Only other Apple products can cannibalize iPad sales. "Cannibalize" means eating your own. It's a word with a precise meaning that provides a very convenient shortcut for referring to a specific situation when analyzing markets. The word you are looking for is "displaced" or "grabbed".
  • Reply 2 of 52
    It's ok...



    I bet many of those Kindle Fire owners will end up getting an iPad after they get to play with their friends' iPads they got for Christmas.
  • Reply 3 of 52
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,958member
    Another day, another analyst report. Fodder for trolls and fanboys. Let 'er rip!
  • Reply 4 of 52
    bloggerblogbloggerblog Posts: 1,833member
    Yeah, so much for the "oh, it's not an iPad competitor" theory
  • Reply 5 of 52
    nofeernofeer Posts: 2,422member
    first amazon doesn't post k fire sold/ delivered

    and

    what's the return rate of fire vs iPad



    i've never talked with anyone that has returned an iPad, they only buy more



    looking forward to the ipad 3 to get the ipad 2 refurb at lower price point for my mother in law first computer and ip 3 for my wife
  • Reply 6 of 52
    conradjoeconradjoe Posts: 1,887member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post


    It's ok...



    I bet many of those Kindle Fire owners will end up getting an iPad after they get to play with their friends' iPads they got for Christmas.



    That is the Official Apple Line.



    But there is no hard information to prove anything like that.
  • Reply 7 of 52
    conradjoeconradjoe Posts: 1,887member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post




    i've never talked with anyone that has returned an iPad










    I've never talked to anybody who has returned a Kindle.



    Proof positive!
  • Reply 8 of 52
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post


    No, no, no! Only other Apple products can cannibalize iPad sales. "Cannibalize" means eating your own. It's a word with a precise meaning that provides a very convenient shortcut for referring to a specific situation when analyzing markets. The word you are looking for is "displaced" or "grabbed".



    The writer saw cannibalize in a context close enough and since it's a newer word it's sexier than the other older words. Like the way decimate is sexier than devistate and emulate is sexier than imitate. Their meanings are secondary to their sexiness.
  • Reply 9 of 52
    mhiklmhikl Posts: 471member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post


    No, no, no! Only other Apple products can cannibalize iPad sales. "Cannibalize" means eating your own. . . ".



    Right on, tundraboy. Do journalists not have to take any English courses or does Ingrish pass muster?



    A few people might have gone cheap (chinched?) and bought at the fire sale, but they got what they bought and it wasn?t an iPad of any meaning, by drunk or by sober.
  • Reply 10 of 52
    evilutionevilution Posts: 1,353member
    There is always going to be a % of parents who buy the wrong present.
  • Reply 11 of 52
    nagrommenagromme Posts: 2,834member
    Even with no data, intuitively it had to cannibalize some number (except, er, ?cannibalize" means eating ones own products). Because some people don?t know that all ?tablets? are not equally good; and might have easily afforded an iPad if they knew there was a reason, but they were just uninformed buyers.



    But I bet an even larger number than that will be turned, by getting a Kindle, in favor of an iPad eventually, in future. Because it?s a ?taste? that makes them appreciate the convenience of a tablet form factor, yet it?s also a bad experience?slow, lack of good apps, misc. glaring flaws (no volume buttons, awkward screen shape). Many of them will come to wish for an iPad, when they might never have really thought about a tablet before Amazon gave them a cheap taste.



    And after all, their Kindle books can be read just fine on their future iPad! And they won?t have bought many Kindle apps to worry about losing because there just aren?t many and they don?t work so well that they?d be missed!



    If someone gives up on their mediocre Kindle gets an iPad next time?but can still buy Kindle books?that?s a win for Amazon AND Apple. Amazon didn?t want the hardware sale anyway; that?s a loss for them. And Apple can stand to lose some e-book sales; they want to sell iPads (hardware + OS) first, and e-books are secondary to Apple.
  • Reply 12 of 52
    mugzymugzy Posts: 38member
    Any mention of how many regular Kindles were "cannibalized" by the sale of the FIRE?
  • Reply 13 of 52
    Cuz it's not to smartness:-))
  • Reply 14 of 52
    I m waiting on some blogger to publish the rate of return of the kindle & Fire. I know it will be at least 10%. I was in a Staples 2 days after christmas and there were 3 people returning theirs.
  • Reply 15 of 52
    cmvsmcmvsm Posts: 204member
    There's a reason as to why they don't break the numbers out. They don't want to put any 'water' on the Fire that they are losing money on.



    My mom did get a Kindle Fire from my step father this weekend, and I used it a bit. After using the iPad, it really was too hard on the eyes and difficult to navigate. If you are into reading, the original Kindle is the smartest choice. The small text and lighted screen of the Fire gets very tiring on the eyes.



    The browser on the Fire was a lot faster than I had read it to be. Very snappy. I did however find myself asking what do I do next with this? I felt that if books wasn't my main thing, then it wasn't very well laid out.



    So the moral of the story is, if you want a Kindle, save your money and get the original and leave the color work and heavy lifting to the big boys.
  • Reply 16 of 52
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mugzy View Post


    Any mention of how many regular Kindles were "cannibalized" by the sale of the FIRE?



    They don't actually publish their numbers, so we'll probably never know that.
  • Reply 17 of 52
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cowhide View Post


    I m waiting on some blogger to publish the rate of return of the kindle & Fire. I know it will be at least 10%. I was in a Staples 2 days after christmas and there were 3 people returning theirs.





    I noticed that the KF 1 & 2 star ratings on Amazon.com have stagnated have held steady for the past few days. Guess Amazon must be blocking them They have been running at about 19.5%
  • Reply 18 of 52
    slapppyslapppy Posts: 331member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bloggerblog View Post


    Yeah, so much for the "oh, it's not an iPad competitor" theory



    Any Android powered device is a direct competitor to any iOS device. Simple. Anyone who believes otherwise has their head buried in the ground.
  • Reply 19 of 52
    Come on guys, hardly worth the discussion. There are people who cannot afford the iPad no matter what and have to settle for third best, there will always be a market for Kindle, albeit a small one. If Kindle users become iPad owners it will be in the secondary market and only after the frustration level has reached its peak... Had an iPad been within their budget, they would have certainly purchased one in the first place.



    No one of means wakes up in the morning and declares, "today, I think I'll buy the cheap emulator because it's a free country and I have a right to purchase something inferior if I want to dammit!"
  • Reply 20 of 52
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by franktinsley View Post


    The writer saw cannibalize in a context close enough and since it's a newer word it's sexier than the other older words. Like the way decimate is sexier than devistate and emulate is sexier than imitate. Their meanings are secondary to their sexiness.



    Oh dear! O dear! Cannibalism is now sexy. Times are changing rapidly.
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