Why are iPods still mentioned? The world has moved on, and it's upgraded to the iPhone.
An iPod touch (which is really an iPod in name only, it is actually an iPhone without the data plan tax) has almost all the capability of an iPhone without a recurring bill of $100/month. It is brilliant of Apple to see they could make so much money selling to people who are happy to pay so much for the privilege of carrying such a capable mobile computing device with 3G as well as wifi access to the internet. But an iPod is really a smaller wifi iPad. It is also an almost unique advantage for iOS in the competition with other mobile OS's. So as you might guess, many of us don't see an iPhone as an "upgrade" when it involves $1,000 per year subsidy to cellphone carrier quasi-monopolies (including, among others Jon Siracusa, noted commentator about Apple software and hardware and not an iPhone user).
Amazon's revenue might be great... but let's see how the margins look next week.
My guess... weak.
More popcorn, please.
Amazon might be in the red for the quarter. It costs more to intro a new product, as Apple constantly warns us. But Amazon's net is so low at 3.37%, that they have little wiggle room.
Yep but that's after hours for the stock price, my question was how the OP knew the option price as that didn't change..
Unless the options are deep in-the-money or deep out-of-the-money (which, his don't seem to be), one can quite easily estimate the option price with reasonable accuracy.
Assuming the price move holds up through tomorrow AM, though....
Amazon might be in the red for the quarter. It costs more to intro a new product, as Apple constantly warns us. But Amazon's net is so low at 3.37%, that they have little wiggle room.
Oh... I have a feeling they'll be wiggling plenty next week...
Yep but that's after hours for the stock price, my question was how the OP knew the option price as that didn't change..
You can always value at expiration - assume time value goes to zero and the price will be the stock price minus the strike price. Adding in time-value is a little harder; the delta isn't going to be consistent for a big move, and your implied volatility is bound to decrease as well.
If you are still out-of-the-money... well, you were gambling. Depending on expiration date, the value may have decreased if you are still far-out.
With options calls, strike 400$, lots spreads in march, april, may and one 425 strike in february. I should had sold the feb one prior to earnings because it wast not in the money but i was not making profit on it so i kept it.
So this position of yours must have cost about 5-10k, am I right?
Because with 1k invested in calls I don't see making more than 2-3k I when markets open tomorrow.. And how do u know call options prices after market close??
Thanks if u have time to answer me, and a big congrats!!
You can always value at expiration - assume time value goes to zero and the price will be the stock price minus the strike price. Adding in time-value is a little harder; the delta isn't going to be consistent for a big move, and your implied volatility is bound to decrease as well.
If you are still out-of-the-money... well, you were gambling. Depending on expiration date, the value may have decreased if you are still far-out.
Thanks a lot for all your replies, my options were frightfully out of the money as when I bought them 1 month ago price was 380. Time value for a month netted out the gains up until today but I'll be seeing them at least double tomorrow
So this position of yours must have cost about 5-10k, am I right?
Because with 1k invested in calls I don't see making more than 2-3k I when markets open tomorrow.. And how do u know call options prices after market close??
Thanks if u have time to answer me, and a big congrats!!
The stock should open around 450 tomorrow.
Yep I have 20k in. But I don't see any other way to make money with options than go 3 to 6 months from expiration and $20+ ITM. Its costly but it gives both Theta and Vega protection. Theta in the last 3 months from expiration is too big if the stock doesn't go you're way and you need to wait for a come back. Vega is going to tank tomorrow for all out of money options, no matter what is the expiration date is.
Playing the FEB/weekly before a big event is like playing at the casino. And the weekly premium drop is going to be brutal by tomorrow at close, which could eat up you're profits event if the stock went the right way.
I expect a possible retreat in the coming weeks before it starts to go back up again. I am going to get rid of my FEB/MAR calls and roll up my AVR/MAY calls after the premium drop. This will take a big amount of money out and secure a profit while still giving me 400 shares exposure in LEAPS. Could be a good idea to buy one MAR put.
They always have incredible products in the pipeline but that doesn't always translate into new product categories. An Apple branded television in 2012 would be impressive.
They always have incredible products in the pipeline but that doesn't always translate into new product categories. An Apple branded television in 2012 would be impressive.
I still can't see a whole television happening at this point. The risks are high and the profits are slim in the TV business. That's not the kind of market Apple tries to dominate. They like owning the beginning-to-end experience and competing with ease of use and great design.
Yep I have 20k in. But I don't see any other way to make money with options than go 3 to 6 months from expiration and $20+ ITM. Its costly but it gives both Theta and Vega protection. Theta in the last 3 months from expiration is too big if the stock doesn't go you're way and you need to wait for a come back. Vega is going to tank tomorrow for all out of money options, no matter what is the expiration date is.
Playing the FEB/weekly before a big event is like playing at the casino. And the weekly premium drop is going to be brutal by tomorrow at close, which could eat up you're profits event if the stock went the right way.
I expect a possible retreat in the coming weeks before it starts to go back up again. I am going to get rid of my FEB/MAR calls and roll up my AVR/MAY calls after the premium drop. This will take a big amount of money out and secure a profit while still giving me 400 shares exposure in LEAPS. Could be a good idea to buy one MAR put.
Thanks for replying me.
I totally agree on theta and vega as I saw my position not increase two earnings call ago although my out of the money options were supposed to double at a $10 increase in stock about two earning calls ago.
Nonetheless, I didn't see that much volatility prior to this earnings call, meaning that the volatility around 425 actually decreased during the day due to a decrease in stock price.
I can't afford to trade in the money apple options yet. Nonetheless, my strategy on out of the money options is similar to your in the money one. Buy at least a month before the earnings to protect from the vega. I buy 3 month options and keep them for max 1 month. Within that month most likely they will double in price if the stock goes the way I expect, or if not at least the value doesn't drop to 0, but rather stays at around 50% loss. Which makes the whole strategy profitable.
This is why I started my position 1 month ago.
But you mention this is your first options trade? This is amazing! Congrats again! I live in Montreal too, if you want PM me and we can further discuss strategies.
I still can't see a whole television happening at this point. The risks are high and the profits are slim in the TV business. That's not the kind of market Apple tries to dominate. They like owning the beginning-to-end experience and competing with ease of use and great design.
That's what they said about Apple getting into phones. Then they said there was no market for tablets.
If, and it's a big if, Apple does get into Tv's, they will have thought they could add something of value. That's how Steve said Apple evaluated markets. If they had nothing of value that they believed only Apple could add, they didn't enter. But if they did...
I should have bought more when it was in the $370's (bought 30 Shares)!! That's what these people do to your OBVIOUS SENSES OF LOGIC, they instill fear! OF COURSE APPLE WILL SOAR ABOVE $400!! Whether or not Wall Street gauges them fairly, the Company will do well enough to drag the Stock along. If the Stock gets fair valuation? WOW, imagine that (even the smallest Investors see their money grow astronomically off of it).
I told myself a few months ago "If Apple gets to $380, I'm putting my entire Bank Account into it", well it did, and I chickened out, aside from the 30 Shares. Yes, doing so is stupidly irresponsible, but not buying AAPL at such low levels? Probably more so. Although the buying opportunity would be even more paramount if it ever happens again, hopefully those levels never happen again!
Comments
Why are iPods still mentioned? The world has moved on, and it's upgraded to the iPhone.
An iPod touch (which is really an iPod in name only, it is actually an iPhone without the data plan tax) has almost all the capability of an iPhone without a recurring bill of $100/month. It is brilliant of Apple to see they could make so much money selling to people who are happy to pay so much for the privilege of carrying such a capable mobile computing device with 3G as well as wifi access to the internet. But an iPod is really a smaller wifi iPad. It is also an almost unique advantage for iOS in the competition with other mobile OS's. So as you might guess, many of us don't see an iPhone as an "upgrade" when it involves $1,000 per year subsidy to cellphone carrier quasi-monopolies (including, among others Jon Siracusa, noted commentator about Apple software and hardware and not an iPhone user).
After hours trading.
Yep but that's after hours for the stock price, my question was how the OP knew the option price as that didn't change..
Amazon's revenue might be great... but let's see how the margins look next week.
My guess... weak.
More popcorn, please.
Amazon might be in the red for the quarter. It costs more to intro a new product, as Apple constantly warns us. But Amazon's net is so low at 3.37%, that they have little wiggle room.
After hours trading.
Usually that doesn't mean much, but with Apple trading at over 6.1 million shares in after hours, it could mean a lot this time.
Has there ever been a more successful design and marketing company than Apple? I can't think of one.
Funny insult!
Yep but that's after hours for the stock price, my question was how the OP knew the option price as that didn't change..
Unless the options are deep in-the-money or deep out-of-the-money (which, his don't seem to be), one can quite easily estimate the option price with reasonable accuracy.
Assuming the price move holds up through tomorrow AM, though....
Amazon might be in the red for the quarter. It costs more to intro a new product, as Apple constantly warns us. But Amazon's net is so low at 3.37%, that they have little wiggle room.
Oh... I have a feeling they'll be wiggling plenty next week...
Yep but that's after hours for the stock price, my question was how the OP knew the option price as that didn't change..
You can always value at expiration - assume time value goes to zero and the price will be the stock price minus the strike price. Adding in time-value is a little harder; the delta isn't going to be consistent for a big move, and your implied volatility is bound to decrease as well.
If you are still out-of-the-money... well, you were gambling. Depending on expiration date, the value may have decreased if you are still far-out.
After hours trading.
With options calls, strike 400$, lots spreads in march, april, may and one 425 strike in february. I should had sold the feb one prior to earnings because it wast not in the money but i was not making profit on it so i kept it.
So this position of yours must have cost about 5-10k, am I right?
Because with 1k invested in calls I don't see making more than 2-3k I when markets open tomorrow.. And how do u know call options prices after market close??
Thanks if u have time to answer me, and a big congrats!!
You can always value at expiration - assume time value goes to zero and the price will be the stock price minus the strike price. Adding in time-value is a little harder; the delta isn't going to be consistent for a big move, and your implied volatility is bound to decrease as well.
If you are still out-of-the-money... well, you were gambling. Depending on expiration date, the value may have decreased if you are still far-out.
Thanks a lot for all your replies, my options were frightfully out of the money as when I bought them 1 month ago price was 380. Time value for a month netted out the gains up until today but I'll be seeing them at least double tomorrow
A fantastic day for apple stock!
Where's that moron Slappy?
He's doing that thing that is the reason for his nickname.
So this position of yours must have cost about 5-10k, am I right?
Because with 1k invested in calls I don't see making more than 2-3k I when markets open tomorrow.. And how do u know call options prices after market close??
Thanks if u have time to answer me, and a big congrats!!
The stock should open around 450 tomorrow.
Yep I have 20k in. But I don't see any other way to make money with options than go 3 to 6 months from expiration and $20+ ITM. Its costly but it gives both Theta and Vega protection. Theta in the last 3 months from expiration is too big if the stock doesn't go you're way and you need to wait for a come back. Vega is going to tank tomorrow for all out of money options, no matter what is the expiration date is.
Playing the FEB/weekly before a big event is like playing at the casino. And the weekly premium drop is going to be brutal by tomorrow at close, which could eat up you're profits event if the stock went the right way.
I expect a possible retreat in the coming weeks before it starts to go back up again. I am going to get rid of my FEB/MAR calls and roll up my AVR/MAY calls after the premium drop. This will take a big amount of money out and secure a profit while still giving me 400 shares exposure in LEAPS. Could be a good idea to buy one MAR put.
Usually that doesn't mean much, but with Apple trading at over 6.1 million shares in after hours, it could mean a lot this time.
Call me optimistic, but I think we are going to see a crazy bounce up tomorrow.
They always have incredible products in the pipeline but that doesn't always translate into new product categories. An Apple branded television in 2012 would be impressive.
I still can't see a whole television happening at this point. The risks are high and the profits are slim in the TV business. That's not the kind of market Apple tries to dominate. They like owning the beginning-to-end experience and competing with ease of use and great design.
The stock should open around 450 tomorrow.
Yep I have 20k in. But I don't see any other way to make money with options than go 3 to 6 months from expiration and $20+ ITM. Its costly but it gives both Theta and Vega protection. Theta in the last 3 months from expiration is too big if the stock doesn't go you're way and you need to wait for a come back. Vega is going to tank tomorrow for all out of money options, no matter what is the expiration date is.
Playing the FEB/weekly before a big event is like playing at the casino. And the weekly premium drop is going to be brutal by tomorrow at close, which could eat up you're profits event if the stock went the right way.
I expect a possible retreat in the coming weeks before it starts to go back up again. I am going to get rid of my FEB/MAR calls and roll up my AVR/MAY calls after the premium drop. This will take a big amount of money out and secure a profit while still giving me 400 shares exposure in LEAPS. Could be a good idea to buy one MAR put.
Thanks for replying me.
I totally agree on theta and vega as I saw my position not increase two earnings call ago although my out of the money options were supposed to double at a $10 increase in stock about two earning calls ago.
Nonetheless, I didn't see that much volatility prior to this earnings call, meaning that the volatility around 425 actually decreased during the day due to a decrease in stock price.
On this, I was reading a very interesting article today :http://seekingalpha.com/article/3207...at?source=feed
I can't afford to trade in the money apple options yet. Nonetheless, my strategy on out of the money options is similar to your in the money one. Buy at least a month before the earnings to protect from the vega. I buy 3 month options and keep them for max 1 month. Within that month most likely they will double in price if the stock goes the way I expect, or if not at least the value doesn't drop to 0, but rather stays at around 50% loss. Which makes the whole strategy profitable.
This is why I started my position 1 month ago.
But you mention this is your first options trade? This is amazing! Congrats again! I live in Montreal too, if you want PM me and we can further discuss strategies.
I still can't see a whole television happening at this point. The risks are high and the profits are slim in the TV business. That's not the kind of market Apple tries to dominate. They like owning the beginning-to-end experience and competing with ease of use and great design.
That's what they said about Apple getting into phones. Then they said there was no market for tablets.
If, and it's a big if, Apple does get into Tv's, they will have thought they could add something of value. That's how Steve said Apple evaluated markets. If they had nothing of value that they believed only Apple could add, they didn't enter. But if they did...
I told myself a few months ago "If Apple gets to $380, I'm putting my entire Bank Account into it", well it did, and I chickened out, aside from the 30 Shares. Yes, doing so is stupidly irresponsible, but not buying AAPL at such low levels? Probably more so. Although the buying opportunity would be even more paramount if it ever happens again, hopefully those levels never happen again!