After 3 years of pressure by their critics, Foxconn has found a solution to workers conditions. They already announced last August that they will be purchasing a MILLION robots by 2014.
Rather trying to solve the prickly issues of long work hours, repetitive motion injury, suicide and constant bad press, they have found the perfection solution, retire your work force of 920,000 people. Let them go back to their small farms working 14-16 hours a days; living in hovels without electricity, running water let alone indoor bathroom; living on a dollar a day.
In three years, everything is going to be better. I am sure all the ex-Foxconn employees will appreciate the help from the anti-Apple bloggers for making their lives so much better.
(Unintended consequences from ill-informed, naive do-gooders)
So Foxconn decided to go robotic due to complaints?
So Foxconn decided to go robotic due to complaints?
Can't make the worker work harder, can't pay them less, can't afford to give them benefits, can't continue with the negative press from enlightened Western consumers which affects Western client companies which affects them directly. To answer your question, yes.
By the way, first time in 2 or 3 decades GM is making a subcompact car in the US. They did this with an automated robotic factory using 1/3 the normal work force.
When Obama asked Steve what could be done to bring jobs, back to the US, he replied they aren't coming back. He meant they aren't coming back because menial production jobs are going to be replaced by robots. The comparative labor advantage in China is short lived.
If you ever visit the BMW plant in South Carolina, you will understand what I mean.
"Labor advocate challenges accuracy of NYT report on Apple, Foxconn"
Above is the AI headline. I looked up the membership list of this non-profit organization. It is all corporate with some educational institutions having associative membership.
After 3 years of pressure by their critics, Foxconn has found a solution to workers conditions. They already announced last August that they will be purchasing a MILLION robots by 2014.
That was debunked the last time it came up. The entire world has only a couple million industrial robots at this time. It is extremely unlikely that Foxconn is going to by the equivalent of 1/2 of the number that the rest of the world uses.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BertP
"Labor advocate challenges accuracy of NYT report on Apple, Foxconn"
Above is the AI headline. I looked up the membership list of this non-profit organization. It is all corporate with some educational institutions having associative membership.
So? If you're going to insinuate something, how about providing some evidence to back up your claim that they're biased. And before you do, keep in mind the following organizations that are funded by business, too:
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Better Business Bureau
But you think they're more biased than the NYT which is simply out to sell papers - and hit pieces like theirs help them to do that?
That was debunked the last time it came up. The entire world has only a couple million industrial robots at this time. It is extremely unlikely that Foxconn is going to by the equivalent of 1/2 of the number that the rest of the world uses.
So? If you're going to insinuate something, how about providing some evidence to back up your claim that they're biased. And before you do, keep in mind the following organizations that are funded by business, too:
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Better Business Bureau
But you think they're more biased than the NYT which is simply out to sell papers - and hit pieces like theirs help them to do that?
$12 per day wages, 20 hour work days, deplorable conditions, and being roused from your sleep at 2am to start production.
Basically, a step above slave labor.
But if you truly believe decent paying jobs would stay right here in America if we could produce it cheaper, look at the earnings of corporations. How much is too much at the expense of workers?
It will never be enough. Greed begets more greed...
Baloney. Chinese factory workers are also quite able to quit and go to work for another factory if they want. They are not prisoners. One of the issues many factories have been facing is a scarcity of workers. This is one of the reasons why China has been moving factories to Vietnam, Africa and elsewhere.
A number of tech bloggers/pundits, most notably Molly Wood, wrote various articles calling on Apple to make changes. I wonder if these journalist-wannabes retract their self-serving declarations now?
Shooting off one's mouth too early is a problem in the blogging world... and in the world at large.
"That was debunked the last time it came up. The entire world has only a couple million industrial robots at this time. It is extremely unlikely that Foxconn is going to by the equivalent of 1/2 of the number that the rest of the world uses."
In 2008, there were 1.3 million industrial robots and 7.3 million service robots. Most automation, like screwing a bolt or doing subassembly does not require an industrial robot with several axis of rotation and freedom of movement. Foxconn mostly does subassembly.
But the fact of the matter is Foxconn is building a new facility to build robots. They are going into the robot business to make robots that they will use in their plants.
Do you really believe that the largest electronics company in the world does not have the ability or the economy of scale to make that number of robots? You know they make over 40% of all the consumer electronics in the world.
After 3 years of pressure by their critics, Foxconn has found a solution to workers conditions. They already announced last August that they will be purchasing a MILLION robots by 2014.
Rather trying to solve the prickly issues of long work hours, repetitive motion injury, suicide and constant bad press, they have found the perfection solution, retire your work force of 920,000 people. Let them go back to their small farms working 14-16 hours a days; living in hovels without electricity, running water let alone indoor bathroom; living on a dollar a day.
In three years, everything is going to be better. I am sure all the ex-Foxconn employees will appreciate the help from the anti-Apple bloggers for making their lives so much better.
(Unintended consequences from ill-informed, naive Western do-gooders)
Back when I used to go there, one of the factories I frequented grew so fast that in the space of several years, they went from mostly hand-assembly work to mostly automated using the newest, most expensive equipment. Unless you have been there and have seen it for yourself, you would not believe the pace of change in China.
"That was debunked the last time it came up. The entire world has only a couple million industrial robots at this time. It is extremely unlikely that Foxconn is going to by the equivalent of 1/2 of the number that the rest of the world uses."
In 2008, there were 1.3 million industrial robots and 7.3 million service robots. Most automation, like screwing a bolt or doing subassembly does not require an industrial robot with several axis of rotation and freedom of movement. Foxconn mostly does subassembly.
But the fact of the matter is Foxconn is building a new facility to build robots. They are going into the robot business to make robots that they will use in their plants.
Do you really believe that the largest electronics company in the world does not have the ability or the economy of scale to make that number of robots? You know they make over 40% of all the consumer electronics in the world.
They specifically stated that they were buying 1 million INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS.
Do you seriously believe that if there were only 1.3 M industrial robots in the entire world in 2008 that one company could buy and install 1 M of them?
Back when I used to go there, one of the factories I frequented grew so fast that in the space of several years, they went from mostly hand-assembly work to mostly automated using the newest, most expensive equipment. Unless you have been there and have seen it for yourself, you would not believe the pace of change in China.
Regrettably, this is the way of the world. Steve Jobs realized this when he told Obama, those jobs are not coming back to the U.S. and eventually will be gone in China. Assembly jobs are going to be done by machines working 24/7. No worries about vacation, rest, benefits, or strike. They don't need heating, A/C or even lights. The whole assembly can be done with the lights off. There is no way that even the lowest paid human workers can compete at this massive level of industrialization.
The question for each nation is what do you do with millions of unemployed hardworking people who want to work but have no jobs.
They specifically stated that they were buying 1 million INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS.
Do you seriously believe that if there were only 1.3 M industrial robots in the entire world in 2008 that one company could buy and install 1 M of them?
You did not read my post did you? When doing subassembly work, you don't need expensive industrial robots to screw on a bolt. There more than enough service robots that can do this.
Number of iOS devices made in 2006: 0.
Number of iOS device made in just the last quarter: 67 million. 67 million in the last 3 months.
You don't think they can't make a million industrial or service robots in the next 2 years for their production needs?
I wondered how long it was going to take for someone to make an absurd claim that BSR was lying now and is simply a paid shill for Apple. I guess the answer is '39 posts'.
They get paid by Apple, yes or no? It's yes, so they are by definition neither a labor advocate nor objective.
The only problem with the NYT piece is that it singles out Apple for something the entire industry does. Beyond that, these practices are a shameful stain on the tech industry. The rest is fourth-rate rationalizing.
You did not read my post did you? When doing subassembly work, you don't need expensive industrial robots to screw on a bolt. There more than enough service robots that can do this.
Number of iOS devices made in 2006: 0.
Number of iOS device made in just the last quarter: 67 million. 67 million in the last 3 months.
You don't think they can't made a million industrial or service robots in the next 2 years for their production needs?
Your double negative is a bit confusing, but I gather you are saying that Foxconn can make 1 million robots in the next two years. I would say that is highly unlikely. As an aside, they'd need industrial or manufacturing robots, not service robots.
Back to the main point, it is indeed impressive to produce double-digit millions of anything. Kudos to Foxconn (and many others in the supply chain). But that didn't happen overnight.
A good year in the robot industry is somewhere over 100k units shipped. A bad year is 50k. In other words, the entire world has never approached spitting distance of 1M industrial robots over 4-5 years, never mind 2 years. On the other hand, the world has collectively produced 100M electronic products in a single year before. Can Foxconn, who doesn't make robots now (AFAIK), become overnight the most prolific robot manufacturer in history?
A robot consists of motors, chassis and a controller. The controller comprises a real-time computer running motion control and planning software. It too is a product that has never been shipped in the millions. The type of robots needed for electronic assembly have 4 (SCARA configuration) or 6 axes (articulated). A million robots need 4-6 million motors - typically AC motors or DC brushless motors. You will be hard pushed to find anyone capable of delivering that quantity in such a short time.
Let's not forget cable harnesses, cast metal chassis, etc, etc. Furthermore, a robot has to be set up in a special work cell and programmed to do its job. While the same program could be used to run hundreds of thousands of robots doing the same thing, you need to teach the key locations individually because no two work cells are truly identical (repeatability of ≤ 0.005" will be needed). You need specialized skill for this. Trainable, but it takes time. And the task of building 1M robotic work cells is as daunting as building the robots themselves.
Having seen Apple/Foxconn ramp up its manufacturing to today's scale, I'd never say anything is beyond them. But the iPhone ramp up has taken 4 years. Producing 1M robots in 2 yrs is a much greater than producing 100M electronic devices (because the latter has been done before). Possible? Maybe. Likely? Not at all. It would be a feat more amazing than what either company has done to date.
And the thing about robots is that they are not as versatile as imagined. Choose the wrong robot type to start with and you may be stuck with 100M lbs of deadweight by the time you finish making them. Such robots cost between $15-35k each. The work cell will triple the cost. Let's call it $20k for the total system given the economy of scale, it's still a $20B gamble. I may be wrong, but I think this is Foxconn bravado. The figure of 1 million is not only impractical to achieve from a production perspective. I question the need for such a number as well.
I say all this while remembering that producing computers using nothing but robots is one of the unrealized visions of Steve Jobs. It will likely remain so for much longer. I'm sure robots are used already in the process (can't imagine that they are not used at all). But to completely replace workers? Hmm ...
Having seen Apple/Foxconn ramp up its manufacturing to today's scale, I'd never say anything is beyond them. But the ramp up has taken 4 years. Producing 1M robots is a much greater than producing 100M electronic devices (because the latter has been done before). Possible? Maybe. Likely? Not at all. It would be a feat more amazing than what either company has done to date.
And the thing about robots is that they are not as versatile as imagined. Choose the wrong robot type to start with and you may be stuck with deadweight by the time you finish making them. Such robots cost between $15-35k each. The work cell will triple the cost. Let's call it $20k for the total system given the economy of scale, it's still a $20B gamble. I may be wrong, but I think this is Foxconn hot air.
The level of robot sales has more to do with the lack of demand than production. In fact, 2010 saw a decline in sales due to the terrible economy. I think last year, sales have increased since due to increased demand.
The goal may exceed the capabilities of the Foxconn, but 4 years ago, who could have imagined that Apple/Foxconn could make over 250 Million iOS devices a year.
Look, I am not arguing the number. You may well be right. My point is that automation/robotic production is going to happen, and workers are going to be displaced on a large scale. It is happening as we speak. These issues of worker condition, while important, is going to be moot, at least, at this massive industrial scale. Yes there are going to be on site engineers and assorted personal, but the assembly part of the process (putting on bolts) are going to go away.
You do bring up an interesting point about a $20B gamble to do this. With withering criticism and $97B in the bank, I wonder if Apple has or will front the money to do so. They have been known to help pay partners for new technology and new method of production. The irony may be that Apple will dramatically improve working conditions by helping to eliminate jobs, at least menial jobs. For the vocal critics of Apple, they need to be reminded of the law of unintended consequences. When that day happens, I wonder if the critics will then turn around and accuse Apple of destroying peoples lives by letting robots take over their jobs.
The level of robot sales has more to do with the lack of demand than production. In fact, 2010 saw a decline in sales due to the terrible economy. I think last year, sales have increased since due to increased demand.
But because we are talking about demand that exceeds historical demand by an order of magnitude, the world's ability to meet it is not there yet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by joguide
The goal may exceed the capabilities of the Foxconn, but 4 years ago, who could have imagined that Apple/Foxconn could make over 250 Million iOS devices a year.
But 4 years ago, the world has already produced certain products similar to iPhones in quantities of double-digit millions, even > 100 M. The world has never produced robots anywhere close to what Foxconn wants.
Quote:
Originally Posted by joguide
Look, I am not arguing the number. You may well be right. My point is that automation/robotic production is going to happen
It has been happening for a long time. But human labor remains cheaper than robots, and are far more dextrous and versatile. Human assemblers can learn new assembly procedures overnight (or nearly). But if a new iPhone design calls for new assembly methods, you need to re-invest to update your robotic work cells to accommodate. This is why only some steps are consistently done using robots (or, more often, what's known as fixed automation) while others are consistently manually executed. To assemble with robots from end-to-end, you need to able to pay off your investment in at most 2 yrs. Greater advances will be needed to accomplish this, accompanied by increase in human labor costs. The latter will eventually happen, but not for another 1 or 2 decades.
Actually, the only fourth-rate views here are the naive ones such as yours -- no doubt, motivated by the goodness of your heart for your fellow-men (as long as, I am guessing, they look like you, and live in the same country) -- whose sole rationale is to keep the poorer countries and their people poor for as long as you can.
Comments
After 3 years of pressure by their critics, Foxconn has found a solution to workers conditions. They already announced last August that they will be purchasing a MILLION robots by 2014.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...77016B20110801
Rather trying to solve the prickly issues of long work hours, repetitive motion injury, suicide and constant bad press, they have found the perfection solution, retire your work force of 920,000 people. Let them go back to their small farms working 14-16 hours a days; living in hovels without electricity, running water let alone indoor bathroom; living on a dollar a day.
In three years, everything is going to be better. I am sure all the ex-Foxconn employees will appreciate the help from the anti-Apple bloggers for making their lives so much better.
(Unintended consequences from ill-informed, naive do-gooders)
So Foxconn decided to go robotic due to complaints?
So Foxconn decided to go robotic due to complaints?
Can't make the worker work harder, can't pay them less, can't afford to give them benefits, can't continue with the negative press from enlightened Western consumers which affects Western client companies which affects them directly. To answer your question, yes.
By the way, first time in 2 or 3 decades GM is making a subcompact car in the US. They did this with an automated robotic factory using 1/3 the normal work force.
When Obama asked Steve what could be done to bring jobs, back to the US, he replied they aren't coming back. He meant they aren't coming back because menial production jobs are going to be replaced by robots. The comparative labor advantage in China is short lived.
If you ever visit the BMW plant in South Carolina, you will understand what I mean.
From the Verge article
How does BSR know who the "anonymous" source is if he/she is anonymous?
This is like a company caught red handed by an anonymous whistle blower out rightly denying any involvement in a fraud scam.
anonymous = identity not revealed
anonymous ≠ identity unknown
Above is the AI headline. I looked up the membership list of this non-profit organization. It is all corporate with some educational institutions having associative membership.
http://www.bsr.org/en/our-network/member-list
After 3 years of pressure by their critics, Foxconn has found a solution to workers conditions. They already announced last August that they will be purchasing a MILLION robots by 2014.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...77016B20110801
That was debunked the last time it came up. The entire world has only a couple million industrial robots at this time. It is extremely unlikely that Foxconn is going to by the equivalent of 1/2 of the number that the rest of the world uses.
"Labor advocate challenges accuracy of NYT report on Apple, Foxconn"
Above is the AI headline. I looked up the membership list of this non-profit organization. It is all corporate with some educational institutions having associative membership.
http://www.bsr.org/en/our-network/member-list
So? If you're going to insinuate something, how about providing some evidence to back up your claim that they're biased. And before you do, keep in mind the following organizations that are funded by business, too:
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Better Business Bureau
But you think they're more biased than the NYT which is simply out to sell papers - and hit pieces like theirs help them to do that?
That was debunked the last time it came up. The entire world has only a couple million industrial robots at this time. It is extremely unlikely that Foxconn is going to by the equivalent of 1/2 of the number that the rest of the world uses.
So? If you're going to insinuate something, how about providing some evidence to back up your claim that they're biased. And before you do, keep in mind the following organizations that are funded by business, too:
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Better Business Bureau
But you think they're more biased than the NYT which is simply out to sell papers - and hit pieces like theirs help them to do that?
You are presumptuous and disrespectful.
Although unions have flaws, nothing is perfect.
The alternative is what you have in China.
$12 per day wages, 20 hour work days, deplorable conditions, and being roused from your sleep at 2am to start production.
Basically, a step above slave labor.
But if you truly believe decent paying jobs would stay right here in America if we could produce it cheaper, look at the earnings of corporations. How much is too much at the expense of workers?
It will never be enough. Greed begets more greed...
Baloney. Chinese factory workers are also quite able to quit and go to work for another factory if they want. They are not prisoners. One of the issues many factories have been facing is a scarcity of workers. This is one of the reasons why China has been moving factories to Vietnam, Africa and elsewhere.
NY Times is disgusting. Can't believe anyone pays for that piece of trash.
Tim Cook might want to consider banning that NY Times app and ending any advertising arrangements with their paper. Payback, baby.
A number of tech bloggers/pundits, most notably Molly Wood, wrote various articles calling on Apple to make changes. I wonder if these journalist-wannabes retract their self-serving declarations now?
Shooting off one's mouth too early is a problem in the blogging world... and in the world at large.
In 2008, there were 1.3 million industrial robots and 7.3 million service robots. Most automation, like screwing a bolt or doing subassembly does not require an industrial robot with several axis of rotation and freedom of movement. Foxconn mostly does subassembly.
But the fact of the matter is Foxconn is building a new facility to build robots. They are going into the robot business to make robots that they will use in their plants.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-...robot-kingdom/
Do you really believe that the largest electronics company in the world does not have the ability or the economy of scale to make that number of robots? You know they make over 40% of all the consumer electronics in the world.
After 3 years of pressure by their critics, Foxconn has found a solution to workers conditions. They already announced last August that they will be purchasing a MILLION robots by 2014.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...77016B20110801
Rather trying to solve the prickly issues of long work hours, repetitive motion injury, suicide and constant bad press, they have found the perfection solution, retire your work force of 920,000 people. Let them go back to their small farms working 14-16 hours a days; living in hovels without electricity, running water let alone indoor bathroom; living on a dollar a day.
In three years, everything is going to be better. I am sure all the ex-Foxconn employees will appreciate the help from the anti-Apple bloggers for making their lives so much better.
(Unintended consequences from ill-informed, naive Western do-gooders)
Back when I used to go there, one of the factories I frequented grew so fast that in the space of several years, they went from mostly hand-assembly work to mostly automated using the newest, most expensive equipment. Unless you have been there and have seen it for yourself, you would not believe the pace of change in China.
"That was debunked the last time it came up. The entire world has only a couple million industrial robots at this time. It is extremely unlikely that Foxconn is going to by the equivalent of 1/2 of the number that the rest of the world uses."
In 2008, there were 1.3 million industrial robots and 7.3 million service robots. Most automation, like screwing a bolt or doing subassembly does not require an industrial robot with several axis of rotation and freedom of movement. Foxconn mostly does subassembly.
But the fact of the matter is Foxconn is building a new facility to build robots. They are going into the robot business to make robots that they will use in their plants.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-...robot-kingdom/
Do you really believe that the largest electronics company in the world does not have the ability or the economy of scale to make that number of robots? You know they make over 40% of all the consumer electronics in the world.
They specifically stated that they were buying 1 million INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS.
Do you seriously believe that if there were only 1.3 M industrial robots in the entire world in 2008 that one company could buy and install 1 M of them?
Back when I used to go there, one of the factories I frequented grew so fast that in the space of several years, they went from mostly hand-assembly work to mostly automated using the newest, most expensive equipment. Unless you have been there and have seen it for yourself, you would not believe the pace of change in China.
Regrettably, this is the way of the world. Steve Jobs realized this when he told Obama, those jobs are not coming back to the U.S. and eventually will be gone in China. Assembly jobs are going to be done by machines working 24/7. No worries about vacation, rest, benefits, or strike. They don't need heating, A/C or even lights. The whole assembly can be done with the lights off. There is no way that even the lowest paid human workers can compete at this massive level of industrialization.
The question for each nation is what do you do with millions of unemployed hardworking people who want to work but have no jobs.
They specifically stated that they were buying 1 million INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS.
Do you seriously believe that if there were only 1.3 M industrial robots in the entire world in 2008 that one company could buy and install 1 M of them?
You did not read my post did you? When doing subassembly work, you don't need expensive industrial robots to screw on a bolt. There more than enough service robots that can do this.
Number of iOS devices made in 2006: 0.
Number of iOS device made in just the last quarter: 67 million. 67 million in the last 3 months.
You don't think they can't make a million industrial or service robots in the next 2 years for their production needs?
Tim Cook might want to consider banning that NY Times app and ending any advertising arrangements with their paper. Payback, baby.
If Apple, or any other company, decides to censor news media, that's the last time I'll buy anything from them.
Free Press is free, period. If you don't like it, feel free to move to Venezuela, or China for that matter.
I wondered how long it was going to take for someone to make an absurd claim that BSR was lying now and is simply a paid shill for Apple. I guess the answer is '39 posts'.
They get paid by Apple, yes or no? It's yes, so they are by definition neither a labor advocate nor objective.
The only problem with the NYT piece is that it singles out Apple for something the entire industry does. Beyond that, these practices are a shameful stain on the tech industry. The rest is fourth-rate rationalizing.
You did not read my post did you? When doing subassembly work, you don't need expensive industrial robots to screw on a bolt. There more than enough service robots that can do this.
Number of iOS devices made in 2006: 0.
Number of iOS device made in just the last quarter: 67 million. 67 million in the last 3 months.
You don't think they can't made a million industrial or service robots in the next 2 years for their production needs?
Your double negative is a bit confusing, but I gather you are saying that Foxconn can make 1 million robots in the next two years. I would say that is highly unlikely. As an aside, they'd need industrial or manufacturing robots, not service robots.
Back to the main point, it is indeed impressive to produce double-digit millions of anything. Kudos to Foxconn (and many others in the supply chain). But that didn't happen overnight.
A good year in the robot industry is somewhere over 100k units shipped. A bad year is 50k. In other words, the entire world has never approached spitting distance of 1M industrial robots over 4-5 years, never mind 2 years. On the other hand, the world has collectively produced 100M electronic products in a single year before. Can Foxconn, who doesn't make robots now (AFAIK), become overnight the most prolific robot manufacturer in history?
A robot consists of motors, chassis and a controller. The controller comprises a real-time computer running motion control and planning software. It too is a product that has never been shipped in the millions. The type of robots needed for electronic assembly have 4 (SCARA configuration) or 6 axes (articulated). A million robots need 4-6 million motors - typically AC motors or DC brushless motors. You will be hard pushed to find anyone capable of delivering that quantity in such a short time.
Let's not forget cable harnesses, cast metal chassis, etc, etc. Furthermore, a robot has to be set up in a special work cell and programmed to do its job. While the same program could be used to run hundreds of thousands of robots doing the same thing, you need to teach the key locations individually because no two work cells are truly identical (repeatability of ≤ 0.005" will be needed). You need specialized skill for this. Trainable, but it takes time. And the task of building 1M robotic work cells is as daunting as building the robots themselves.
Having seen Apple/Foxconn ramp up its manufacturing to today's scale, I'd never say anything is beyond them. But the iPhone ramp up has taken 4 years. Producing 1M robots in 2 yrs is a much greater than producing 100M electronic devices (because the latter has been done before). Possible? Maybe. Likely? Not at all. It would be a feat more amazing than what either company has done to date.
And the thing about robots is that they are not as versatile as imagined. Choose the wrong robot type to start with and you may be stuck with 100M lbs of deadweight by the time you finish making them. Such robots cost between $15-35k each. The work cell will triple the cost. Let's call it $20k for the total system given the economy of scale, it's still a $20B gamble. I may be wrong, but I think this is Foxconn bravado. The figure of 1 million is not only impractical to achieve from a production perspective. I question the need for such a number as well.
I say all this while remembering that producing computers using nothing but robots is one of the unrealized visions of Steve Jobs. It will likely remain so for much longer. I'm sure robots are used already in the process (can't imagine that they are not used at all). But to completely replace workers? Hmm ...
Having seen Apple/Foxconn ramp up its manufacturing to today's scale, I'd never say anything is beyond them. But the ramp up has taken 4 years. Producing 1M robots is a much greater than producing 100M electronic devices (because the latter has been done before). Possible? Maybe. Likely? Not at all. It would be a feat more amazing than what either company has done to date.
And the thing about robots is that they are not as versatile as imagined. Choose the wrong robot type to start with and you may be stuck with deadweight by the time you finish making them. Such robots cost between $15-35k each. The work cell will triple the cost. Let's call it $20k for the total system given the economy of scale, it's still a $20B gamble. I may be wrong, but I think this is Foxconn hot air.
The level of robot sales has more to do with the lack of demand than production. In fact, 2010 saw a decline in sales due to the terrible economy. I think last year, sales have increased since due to increased demand.
The goal may exceed the capabilities of the Foxconn, but 4 years ago, who could have imagined that Apple/Foxconn could make over 250 Million iOS devices a year.
Look, I am not arguing the number. You may well be right. My point is that automation/robotic production is going to happen, and workers are going to be displaced on a large scale. It is happening as we speak. These issues of worker condition, while important, is going to be moot, at least, at this massive industrial scale. Yes there are going to be on site engineers and assorted personal, but the assembly part of the process (putting on bolts) are going to go away.
You do bring up an interesting point about a $20B gamble to do this. With withering criticism and $97B in the bank, I wonder if Apple has or will front the money to do so. They have been known to help pay partners for new technology and new method of production. The irony may be that Apple will dramatically improve working conditions by helping to eliminate jobs, at least menial jobs. For the vocal critics of Apple, they need to be reminded of the law of unintended consequences. When that day happens, I wonder if the critics will then turn around and accuse Apple of destroying peoples lives by letting robots take over their jobs.
The level of robot sales has more to do with the lack of demand than production. In fact, 2010 saw a decline in sales due to the terrible economy. I think last year, sales have increased since due to increased demand.
But because we are talking about demand that exceeds historical demand by an order of magnitude, the world's ability to meet it is not there yet.
The goal may exceed the capabilities of the Foxconn, but 4 years ago, who could have imagined that Apple/Foxconn could make over 250 Million iOS devices a year.
But 4 years ago, the world has already produced certain products similar to iPhones in quantities of double-digit millions, even > 100 M. The world has never produced robots anywhere close to what Foxconn wants.
Look, I am not arguing the number. You may well be right. My point is that automation/robotic production is going to happen
It has been happening for a long time. But human labor remains cheaper than robots, and are far more dextrous and versatile. Human assemblers can learn new assembly procedures overnight (or nearly). But if a new iPhone design calls for new assembly methods, you need to re-invest to update your robotic work cells to accommodate. This is why only some steps are consistently done using robots (or, more often, what's known as fixed automation) while others are consistently manually executed. To assemble with robots from end-to-end, you need to able to pay off your investment in at most 2 yrs. Greater advances will be needed to accomplish this, accompanied by increase in human labor costs. The latter will eventually happen, but not for another 1 or 2 decades.
The rest is fourth-rate rationalizing.
Actually, the only fourth-rate views here are the naive ones such as yours -- no doubt, motivated by the goodness of your heart for your fellow-men (as long as, I am guessing, they look like you, and live in the same country) -- whose sole rationale is to keep the poorer countries and their people poor for as long as you can.