I was thinking sports too, was the key to the front door, as @penchanted suggest. If Apple could get MLB, NFL, ESPN, and world soccer, they wouldn't even need Hollywood. When Hollywood sees the massive sports profits, they'll come begging for a piece of the action. Apple has plenty of cash and IMO they should sponsor World Sports Events.
Sports programming might well be the key. If they could get content from those you listed plus NASCAR, that would be a viable offering in the US. Add in soccer and they have a world offering.
As always, Hollywood is holding back future technology and innovations due to their own greed and selfishness and short-term vision. Hollywood has never done anything to help consumers.
Pretty much. Apple's number one priority when it makes decisions is the final consumer experience. And, clearly this has payed off in spades. It's something that doesn't seem to be a priority for anyone else. It's why these dinosaur studios will remain short-sighted, greedy, and at the end of the day won't give a fuck as long as they're swimming in cash. TV is so broken, but without providers playing nice I don't see how anything will change anytime soon. I literally haven't watched a Tv show/movie on my TV for months. I get it all online, because of the flexibility, quality, and the fact that its ad free.
As always, Hollywood is holding back future technology and innovations due to their own greed and selfishness and short-term vision. Hollywood has never done anything to help consumers.
I remember Richard Branson saying some kind words about Steve after his death. It occurred to me at the time that Steve and Apple might be getting input from him. He's another of those individuals who has figured out how to bypass the barriers to entering a market.
All good ideas. It's amazing to me how difficult it is to read Apple's plans.
In this case, I don't think their plans are all that opaque. They'd like to get all the majors in the US on-board but lacking that, they will pursue a deal with either Disney or Fox, both of which can offer film, TV and sports programming.
Failing that, they will pursue sports programming and, possibly, tying up with public TV in the states. Interestingly, "public television" in most countries is state-run television and they are often as intractable as the major studios in the US (I'm looking squarely at the BBC). Of course, with budgets in shambles around the world, these stations could be low-hanging fruit.
the only way Apple is going to break these guys' stranglehold over content is ... buy an independent distribution net. like buy DISH, and even better, Echo Star's global satellites too. the key choke point is bandwidth. plus the $'s to back up the threat. get them by the balls.
once Apple can threaten global cheap distribution of competing content, the medicos will finally cave in. pick them off one by one.
Apple has the cash. for chrissake, pull the trigger.
Guys, remember the Comcast deal to buy NBC Universal? As part of that deal, Comcast had to agree to several conditions to be allowed to buy NBC Universal. Because of this deal, NBC Universal and Comcast have to provide access to NBC Universal content to others who want to distribute it. They cannot put a spoke in Apple's wheel even if they don't like what Apple is doing.
It is precisely this deal that helped Apple get a foot in the door of the production companies. Apple obviously has a good relationship with Disney. NBC Universal's hands are tied so they have no choice. Once these 2 major networks are on board, the other networks will soon be forced to join. Because if they stay out, they risk being sidelined by the significant number of people who would likely sign up for an Apple Subscription plan.
The one aspect that might be an issue for Apple, might be the price at which the content is delivered to Apple by the Networks. And this is where I think Apple should have the balls to use up some of the $100B in the bank in a power play - to pay the networks what they ask, while still offering customers a very attractive deal on subscriptions. The networks know that Apple has the staying power to continue this for a very long time. So they will eventually agree to this model.
While I don't generally like the idea of Apple buying a cable operator or EchoStar, in EchoStar's case I will make a difference. I think EchoStar is attractive for Apple for multiple reasons. It offers a way to minimize bandwidth consumption using Satellite.
Secondly, delivery of high definition live sports and news over Internet to millions of customers is just not feasible today. Apple can offer a $30 per month option where people get EchoStar for most of their needs, plus a free addon from the iTunes Store for any content you missed out on.
But there is yet another reason for Apple to buy EchoStar. EchoStar owns SlingBox. And I think SlingBox could possibly be the best alternative to an all cloud service from Apple. While Apple would likely want everyone to get everything online, it is highly unlikely to be feasible practically today. For today, Apple needs alternatives other than cloud based ones.
One possible road map I see for Apple, is that the current TimeCapsule solution will become Apple's Home Gateway initiative. If they own EchoStar, they can easily add SlingBox capability to the TimeCapsule - either directly, or via USB/network. It is a no brainer to add SIP phone capability to this device. Apple can easily integrate a DECT chipset into the device to take care of cordless phone service. It is easy for Apple to make the TimeCapsule as an iTunes Media Server. I foresee TimeCapsule becoming a major part of Apple's push to take control of your home. Down the road, it can even integrate Home Automation functionality. Whether you take SlingBox, DECT, Home Automation -- all these are great product ideas that have not had the level of market success they deserve - simply because no one has done them right. Apple's magic touch could easily make the TimeCapsule as the center of their Home strategy.
Most importantly, as Apple moves more and more people into iOS style devices, TimeCapsule will have to graduate into a more powerful solution. People would not want to have their iMacs or Mac Minis running the whole day just because they want to access media from their iPad!
Of all the major growth areas for Apple, I think Enterprise, Connected Home, and Cars are the low lying fruit. In all these areas, there is very little competition, and the markets are huge. Apple's success in its current areas can easily be leveraged to enter into these 3 domains. Already Apple is seeing success in Enterprise - they can easily see similar levels of success in Connected Home and Cars as well.
There is another hidden growth area for Apple - one that most people will just not agree with or recognize today. Today, the Phone functionality is just another App in the iPhone. On the iPad, there is absolutely no phone functionality built in by Apple - but you can easily use Skype, or Viber, or Google Voice or dozens of similar solutions. What if Apple removed the Voice functionality in the iPhone, and made it into a App that just rides on top of the data subscription you already have? That way, all your voice minutes are just data - you don't pay separately for Voice and separately for Data. Apple has already done this with iMessages - so you don't have to pay separately for Text messages. In 5 years time, all these carriers will be dump pipes, just providing data connectivity. Apple and the AppStore will be controlling everything else on your phone. Voice, Messages, Emails, etc. The SIP functionality mentioned above, will just tie in to the same idea - so that you have a land line phone with cheaper and unlimited data while at home, and a mobile SIP phone while outside. With calls automatically routed, similar to what Google Voice does.
In all likelihood, this will happen well within 5 years!
An earlier poster made the point that bandwidth is the choking point for streamed Internet TV...
I believe it is!
What if bandwidth is also the choking point for cable TV? satellite TV?
I believe it is!
What if Apple has a solution to the bandwidth choking point Issue that Apple can sell/license to content owners, providers, deliverers -- so they can sell more of their payloads to more customers for more profit!
I think Apple has such a solution!
It takes the form of an efficient codec and the hardware/software to:
-- encode and compress the content
-- transmit/stream the encoded and compressed content by whatever means available
-- uncompress, decode and regenerate the content at the destination devices: TVs, STBs, Displays, iPads... Whatever.
What if this solution can take existing content and move it around, over the airwaves and wires, using a small percentage of the existing bandwidth... Say 50%... Or 20%... or 10%?
What if Apple delivers the solution on March 7 in the iPad 3 and AppleTV 3?
Here's a post I made to another thread:
Here's some "what ifs"...
What if :
Apple has cut deals with the content owners and providers to stream recorded and live video.
Apple has a codec/hardware implementation that allows HD content to be compressed/streamed at less bandwidth than current SD and Cable TV content -- over the air and through the cable/WiFi (over the river and through the woods?).
Apple has a corresponding codec/hardware that allows reconstitution of the compressed HD content on a Cable STB, ATV, or iPad³ over WiFi
Now, that would make the iPad³ a pretty compelling device -- if only as a personal TV.
...think of all the other possibilities of this technology and the ability to send and receive HD content quickly, efficiently -- anywhere!
Apologies in advance for the big picture -- but this is the big picture!
An earlier poster made the point that bandwidth is the choking point for streamed Internet TV...
I believe it is!
What if bandwidth is also the choking point for cable TV? satellite TV?
I believe it is!
What if Apple has a solution to the bandwidth choking point Issue that Apple can sell/license to content owners, providers, deliverers -- so they can sell more of their payloads to more customers for more profit!
I think Apple has such a solution!
It takes the form of an efficient codec and the hardware/software to:
-- encode and compress the content
-- transmit/stream the encoded and compressed content by whatever means available
-- uncompress, decode and regenerate the content at the destination devices: TVs, STBs, Displays, iPads... Whatever.
What if this solution can take existing content and move it around, over the airwaves and wires, using a small percentage of the existing bandwidth... Say 50%... Or 20%... or 10%?
Here's a post I made to another thread:
Here's some "what ifs"...
What if :
Apple has cut deals with the content owners and providers to stream recorded and live video.
Apple has a codec/hardware implementation that allows HD content to be compressed/streamed at less bandwidth than current SD and Cable TV content -- over the air and through the cable/WiFi (over the river and through the woods?).
Apple has a corresponding codec/hardware that allows reconstitution of the compressed HD content on a Cable STB, ATV, or iPad³ over WiFi
Now, that would make the iPad³ a pretty compelling device -- if only as a personal TV.
...think of all the other possibilities of this technology and the ability to send and receive HD content quickly, efficiently -- anywhere!
Apologies in advance for the big picture -- but this is the big picture!
I think you have a good point. All the cable cos I know of still push MPEG-2. An Apple box that could decode H.264/AAC would be easy for Apple to make and would reduce their bandwidth costs tremendously.
The one caveat might be to encode the content at the source. How does it get sent to the cable cos? What kind of cost is involved for changing out equipment for using a better codec? How long would you need to support both systems at the same time until your entire system is converted? Is this even feasible?
PS: That image is huge. A smaller version for the forum would still clearly show the ratio differences.
Since they first demoed the Apple TV in 2006 they have had nothing but difficulty. I'd say there success with iTunes Music Store was too overwhelming and complete that everyone is too afraid.
I suppose one can look the iPhone, too, to see how Apple's success has changed the control focus but aren't the carriers making more money because of the dramatic change in the desire for data on smartphones?
Either way, I'm glad to read that the Apple HDTV looks to be a "last resort" solution and I fully expect Apple to be able to get a foothold in the next year or two.
PS: 1080p AppleTV 3.0 with App Store and SDK next week?
I think my parents in law would be in for a AppleTV if the v3.0 is 1080p capable. Could be a nice gift for them, They just bought a huge OLED TV.
As for me, I hate TV broadcasting for the most part. All the commercials make me sick. So my iMac is my TV Nr.1. There i can choose what movies I like to see, and they won't be interrupted by some silly tooth paste commercial.
As much as I hate most TV- broadcasting, to see Apple getting a foothold in this buissnes the way you suggest, would be most pleasant. And if they could put a little pressure on the TV producers to improve the quality of their content, everybody will gain a lot.
I think you have a good point. All the cable cos I know of still push MPEG-2. An Apple box that could decode H.264/AAC would be easy for Apple to make and would reduce their bandwidth costs tremendously.
The one caveat might be to encode the content at the source. How does it get sent to the cable cos? What kind of cost is involved for changing out equipment for using a better codec? How long would you need to support both systems at the same time until your entire system is converted? Is this even feasible?
PS: That image is huge. A smaller version for the forum would still clearly show the ratio differences.
I had already reduced the image 50%... but just did another 50%
If it is what I think it is, encoding is trivial and should be doable on everything from an iPad to a PowerMac... It's just another codec with a hardware assist -- like the iPhone's h264 capability,
AFAICT, when content is edited, then finalized -- it is delivered in one or more formats: tape, DVD, digital (ProRes, h264, etc.). This would just be another delivery option...
Or, you could take existing content, recode it and then store the encoded content in a fraction of the space.
I believe that FCP X $299, Motion 5 $50 and Compressor $50 already have this capability (as do OS X and iOS) -- it's just not exposed.
I suspect Apple will add this encode/decode capability to the iOS camera app, iCloud and whatever...
I believe that cablecos have the ability to transmit multiple codecs.
As to the hardware -- How about something as small and inexpensive as an ATV3.
That's the beauty/simplicity of the solution the encoding/decoding is done at the source and the destination devices -- you only need to decode the content when you want to see it... as it is playing!
As much as I hate most TV- broadcasting, to see Apple getting a foothold in this buissnes the way you suggest, would be most pleasant. And if they could put a little pressure on the TV producers to improve the quality of their content, everybody will gain a lot.
I did some really rough brute force approximation... as a proof of concept -- obviously I don't have the codec or the hardware.
Taking an HD clip, encoding it, then converting to h264 (a compression codec), transmitting it, uncompressing it, decoding it....
I was able to reduce the file size (bandwidth) to 1/10 of the original.
The regenerated video at the other end was better than what I get on u-verse optical (whatever they use).
To be honest there were some anomalies in the regenerated video -- but hey, I was using off-the-shelf software and no hinting. Someone like Apple, who know what they are doing, should be able to obtain fantastic results at, say, 20% of the current bandwidth.
The US is such a mess that it could well be that Apple will launch their initiative in a country like Canada first. There are a lot fewer players in Canada at every level and far more potential for deals to be struck.
I don't buy this story. Apple have known since forever that content holders would oppose any attempt to push them out. I think Apple's plan is to bring them in. The Apple TV should be as attractive to content providers and the iPhone is to developers.
Here's my guess;
Apple will let content holders sell channels, through the Channel Store at any price they want. Apple will take 30%. Apple will deliver all content through the internet from a data center. Recording, previewing is done at the data centre. A building sized TiVO can record everything.
Currently, most content providers have to work hard for each new subscription. They need billing centres, they need cable and dish installers, technical support and they often subsidise PVR equipment. Even with high subscription fees, it might be 18 months before they see any return on a new customer.
Customers are then unwilling to subscribe because of the long contracts.
With the channel store model, the end-user presses "subscribe" and they are connected to that content instantly. The new channel package slots right in alongside the others.
For the user, they get a flat interface, searching, no boxes, infinite recording- and the best thing: Live multi-screen browsing. See all your channels at once.
For the content vendor, they get immediate revenue, can slash installation costs and hand-over technical support to someone else. Apple will let them charge whatever they like.
If there are arguments happening, I bet they are over ownership of customer viewing data, ease of cancellation that sort of thing.
It occurs to me as we discuss the merrit of paying for streamed, advertising free content, that I grew up with the BBC and ITV in the UK and we paid a fee every year for the BBC which delivered programming with zero advertising. To watch something on the independent station (in the early days there was only one station on BBC or ITV) you had to endure adverts every few minutes. Both models obviously succeeded as there seems room for both.
Now I use Nerflix so much I can say I vastly prefer the 'pay up front and no ad' model in the digital age too and can't wait for it to include live and current content. In the meantime I will stick with iTunes and Neflix as the closest to that model I can get. I believe Apple can eventually turn this industry around, hopefully sooner than later.
One side bar on the above is that the BBC being free from advertisers were able to produce what is recognized as some of the finest programming in the world, one example being David Attenborough's 'Life on Earth' award winning series in the 1970s. No political or religious interference by powerful advertisers or sponsors possible.
Market cap of Time Warner is $37bn; Apple could buy them and have lots of content to start the ball rolling!
That's only one county though, Apple are very global now and buying major networks and or cable companies in every country would be a mind boggling and complex mess. Steve always preached that keeping it simple and sticking with what you do works best and so far that seems to be working. They didn't have to buy any music labels to shift the earth under the music industry. However, I agree with others here that the film industry is terrified of losing control and probably see the music industry as a model they don't want for them. I don't really understand that as it is universally accepted the music industry was saved by Apple. Somehow the film industry need to realize they might actually be beter off moving in to a new, 21st century distribution model and Apple are the best company to deliver that.
I'll wait until there's some real information on the table rather than 4th hand rumors from people who aren't even part of the process. Do you really think the NY Post knows what is going on? Or that they could be trusted to report it accurately even if they did?
Comments
I was thinking sports too, was the key to the front door, as @penchanted suggest. If Apple could get MLB, NFL, ESPN, and world soccer, they wouldn't even need Hollywood. When Hollywood sees the massive sports profits, they'll come begging for a piece of the action. Apple has plenty of cash and IMO they should sponsor World Sports Events.
Sports programming might well be the key. If they could get content from those you listed plus NASCAR, that would be a viable offering in the US. Add in soccer and they have a world offering.
As always, Hollywood is holding back future technology and innovations due to their own greed and selfishness and short-term vision. Hollywood has never done anything to help consumers.
Pretty much. Apple's number one priority when it makes decisions is the final consumer experience. And, clearly this has payed off in spades. It's something that doesn't seem to be a priority for anyone else. It's why these dinosaur studios will remain short-sighted, greedy, and at the end of the day won't give a fuck as long as they're swimming in cash. TV is so broken, but without providers playing nice I don't see how anything will change anytime soon. I literally haven't watched a Tv show/movie on my TV for months. I get it all online, because of the flexibility, quality, and the fact that its ad free.
As always, Hollywood is holding back future technology and innovations due to their own greed and selfishness and short-term vision. Hollywood has never done anything to help consumers.
Never was there truer words spoken!
All good ideas. It's amazing to me how difficult it is to read Apple's plans.
In this case, I don't think their plans are all that opaque. They'd like to get all the majors in the US on-board but lacking that, they will pursue a deal with either Disney or Fox, both of which can offer film, TV and sports programming.
Failing that, they will pursue sports programming and, possibly, tying up with public TV in the states. Interestingly, "public television" in most countries is state-run television and they are often as intractable as the major studios in the US (I'm looking squarely at the BBC). Of course, with budgets in shambles around the world, these stations could be low-hanging fruit.
the only way Apple is going to break these guys' stranglehold over content is ... buy an independent distribution net. like buy DISH, and even better, Echo Star's global satellites too. the key choke point is bandwidth. plus the $'s to back up the threat. get them by the balls.
once Apple can threaten global cheap distribution of competing content, the medicos will finally cave in. pick them off one by one.
Apple has the cash. for chrissake, pull the trigger.
Guys, remember the Comcast deal to buy NBC Universal? As part of that deal, Comcast had to agree to several conditions to be allowed to buy NBC Universal. Because of this deal, NBC Universal and Comcast have to provide access to NBC Universal content to others who want to distribute it. They cannot put a spoke in Apple's wheel even if they don't like what Apple is doing.
It is precisely this deal that helped Apple get a foot in the door of the production companies. Apple obviously has a good relationship with Disney. NBC Universal's hands are tied so they have no choice. Once these 2 major networks are on board, the other networks will soon be forced to join. Because if they stay out, they risk being sidelined by the significant number of people who would likely sign up for an Apple Subscription plan.
The one aspect that might be an issue for Apple, might be the price at which the content is delivered to Apple by the Networks. And this is where I think Apple should have the balls to use up some of the $100B in the bank in a power play - to pay the networks what they ask, while still offering customers a very attractive deal on subscriptions. The networks know that Apple has the staying power to continue this for a very long time. So they will eventually agree to this model.
While I don't generally like the idea of Apple buying a cable operator or EchoStar, in EchoStar's case I will make a difference. I think EchoStar is attractive for Apple for multiple reasons. It offers a way to minimize bandwidth consumption using Satellite.
Secondly, delivery of high definition live sports and news over Internet to millions of customers is just not feasible today. Apple can offer a $30 per month option where people get EchoStar for most of their needs, plus a free addon from the iTunes Store for any content you missed out on.
But there is yet another reason for Apple to buy EchoStar. EchoStar owns SlingBox. And I think SlingBox could possibly be the best alternative to an all cloud service from Apple. While Apple would likely want everyone to get everything online, it is highly unlikely to be feasible practically today. For today, Apple needs alternatives other than cloud based ones.
One possible road map I see for Apple, is that the current TimeCapsule solution will become Apple's Home Gateway initiative. If they own EchoStar, they can easily add SlingBox capability to the TimeCapsule - either directly, or via USB/network. It is a no brainer to add SIP phone capability to this device. Apple can easily integrate a DECT chipset into the device to take care of cordless phone service. It is easy for Apple to make the TimeCapsule as an iTunes Media Server. I foresee TimeCapsule becoming a major part of Apple's push to take control of your home. Down the road, it can even integrate Home Automation functionality. Whether you take SlingBox, DECT, Home Automation -- all these are great product ideas that have not had the level of market success they deserve - simply because no one has done them right. Apple's magic touch could easily make the TimeCapsule as the center of their Home strategy.
Most importantly, as Apple moves more and more people into iOS style devices, TimeCapsule will have to graduate into a more powerful solution. People would not want to have their iMacs or Mac Minis running the whole day just because they want to access media from their iPad!
Of all the major growth areas for Apple, I think Enterprise, Connected Home, and Cars are the low lying fruit. In all these areas, there is very little competition, and the markets are huge. Apple's success in its current areas can easily be leveraged to enter into these 3 domains. Already Apple is seeing success in Enterprise - they can easily see similar levels of success in Connected Home and Cars as well.
There is another hidden growth area for Apple - one that most people will just not agree with or recognize today. Today, the Phone functionality is just another App in the iPhone. On the iPad, there is absolutely no phone functionality built in by Apple - but you can easily use Skype, or Viber, or Google Voice or dozens of similar solutions. What if Apple removed the Voice functionality in the iPhone, and made it into a App that just rides on top of the data subscription you already have? That way, all your voice minutes are just data - you don't pay separately for Voice and separately for Data. Apple has already done this with iMessages - so you don't have to pay separately for Text messages. In 5 years time, all these carriers will be dump pipes, just providing data connectivity. Apple and the AppStore will be controlling everything else on your phone. Voice, Messages, Emails, etc. The SIP functionality mentioned above, will just tie in to the same idea - so that you have a land line phone with cheaper and unlimited data while at home, and a mobile SIP phone while outside. With calls automatically routed, similar to what Google Voice does.
In all likelihood, this will happen well within 5 years!
An earlier poster made the point that bandwidth is the choking point for streamed Internet TV...
I believe it is!
What if bandwidth is also the choking point for cable TV? satellite TV?
I believe it is!
What if Apple has a solution to the bandwidth choking point Issue that Apple can sell/license to content owners, providers, deliverers -- so they can sell more of their payloads to more customers for more profit!
I think Apple has such a solution!
It takes the form of an efficient codec and the hardware/software to:
-- encode and compress the content
-- transmit/stream the encoded and compressed content by whatever means available
-- uncompress, decode and regenerate the content at the destination devices: TVs, STBs, Displays, iPads... Whatever.
What if this solution can take existing content and move it around, over the airwaves and wires, using a small percentage of the existing bandwidth... Say 50%... Or 20%... or 10%?
What if Apple delivers the solution on March 7 in the iPad 3 and AppleTV 3?
Here's a post I made to another thread:
Here's some "what ifs"...
What if :
- Apple has cut deals with the content owners and providers to stream recorded and live video.
- Apple has a codec/hardware implementation that allows HD content to be compressed/streamed at less bandwidth than current SD and Cable TV content -- over the air and through the cable/WiFi (over the river and through the woods?).
- Apple has a corresponding codec/hardware that allows reconstitution of the compressed HD content on a Cable STB, ATV, or iPad³ over WiFi
Now, that would make the iPad³ a pretty compelling device -- if only as a personal TV....think of all the other possibilities of this technology and the ability to send and receive HD content quickly, efficiently -- anywhere!
Apologies in advance for the big picture -- but this is the big picture!
Here's a comparison of display sizes:
An earlier poster made the point that bandwidth is the choking point for streamed Internet TV...
I believe it is!
What if bandwidth is also the choking point for cable TV? satellite TV?
I believe it is!
What if Apple has a solution to the bandwidth choking point Issue that Apple can sell/license to content owners, providers, deliverers -- so they can sell more of their payloads to more customers for more profit!
I think Apple has such a solution!
It takes the form of an efficient codec and the hardware/software to:
-- encode and compress the content
-- transmit/stream the encoded and compressed content by whatever means available
-- uncompress, decode and regenerate the content at the destination devices: TVs, STBs, Displays, iPads... Whatever.
What if this solution can take existing content and move it around, over the airwaves and wires, using a small percentage of the existing bandwidth... Say 50%... Or 20%... or 10%?
Here's a post I made to another thread:
Here's some "what ifs"...
What if :
- Apple has cut deals with the content owners and providers to stream recorded and live video.
- Apple has a codec/hardware implementation that allows HD content to be compressed/streamed at less bandwidth than current SD and Cable TV content -- over the air and through the cable/WiFi (over the river and through the woods?).
- Apple has a corresponding codec/hardware that allows reconstitution of the compressed HD content on a Cable STB, ATV, or iPad³ over WiFi
Now, that would make the iPad³ a pretty compelling device -- if only as a personal TV....think of all the other possibilities of this technology and the ability to send and receive HD content quickly, efficiently -- anywhere!
Apologies in advance for the big picture -- but this is the big picture!
Here's a comparison of display sizes:
image: http://web.me.com/dicklacara/ForWeb/...Comparison.png
I think you have a good point. All the cable cos I know of still push MPEG-2. An Apple box that could decode H.264/AAC would be easy for Apple to make and would reduce their bandwidth costs tremendously.
The one caveat might be to encode the content at the source. How does it get sent to the cable cos? What kind of cost is involved for changing out equipment for using a better codec? How long would you need to support both systems at the same time until your entire system is converted? Is this even feasible?
PS: That image is huge. A smaller version for the forum would still clearly show the ratio differences.
Since they first demoed the Apple TV in 2006 they have had nothing but difficulty. I'd say there success with iTunes Music Store was too overwhelming and complete that everyone is too afraid.
I suppose one can look the iPhone, too, to see how Apple's success has changed the control focus but aren't the carriers making more money because of the dramatic change in the desire for data on smartphones?
Either way, I'm glad to read that the Apple HDTV looks to be a "last resort" solution and I fully expect Apple to be able to get a foothold in the next year or two.
PS: 1080p AppleTV 3.0 with App Store and SDK next week?
I think my parents in law would be in for a AppleTV if the v3.0 is 1080p capable. Could be a nice gift for them, They just bought a huge OLED TV.
As for me, I hate TV broadcasting for the most part. All the commercials make me sick. So my iMac is my TV Nr.1. There i can choose what movies I like to see, and they won't be interrupted by some silly tooth paste commercial.
....... // deleted for space reasons // .....
Your reasoning is very convincing.
As much as I hate most TV- broadcasting, to see Apple getting a foothold in this buissnes the way you suggest, would be most pleasant. And if they could put a little pressure on the TV producers to improve the quality of their content, everybody will gain a lot.
I think you have a good point. All the cable cos I know of still push MPEG-2. An Apple box that could decode H.264/AAC would be easy for Apple to make and would reduce their bandwidth costs tremendously.
The one caveat might be to encode the content at the source. How does it get sent to the cable cos? What kind of cost is involved for changing out equipment for using a better codec? How long would you need to support both systems at the same time until your entire system is converted? Is this even feasible?
PS: That image is huge. A smaller version for the forum would still clearly show the ratio differences.
I had already reduced the image 50%... but just did another 50%
If it is what I think it is, encoding is trivial and should be doable on everything from an iPad to a PowerMac... It's just another codec with a hardware assist -- like the iPhone's h264 capability,
AFAICT, when content is edited, then finalized -- it is delivered in one or more formats: tape, DVD, digital (ProRes, h264, etc.). This would just be another delivery option...
Or, you could take existing content, recode it and then store the encoded content in a fraction of the space.
I believe that FCP X $299, Motion 5 $50 and Compressor $50 already have this capability (as do OS X and iOS) -- it's just not exposed.
I suspect Apple will add this encode/decode capability to the iOS camera app, iCloud and whatever...
I believe that cablecos have the ability to transmit multiple codecs.
As to the hardware -- How about something as small and inexpensive as an ATV3.
That's the beauty/simplicity of the solution the encoding/decoding is done at the source and the destination devices -- you only need to decode the content when you want to see it... as it is playing!
Your reasoning is very convincing.
As much as I hate most TV- broadcasting, to see Apple getting a foothold in this buissnes the way you suggest, would be most pleasant. And if they could put a little pressure on the TV producers to improve the quality of their content, everybody will gain a lot.
I did some really rough brute force approximation... as a proof of concept -- obviously I don't have the codec or the hardware.
Taking an HD clip, encoding it, then converting to h264 (a compression codec), transmitting it, uncompressing it, decoding it....
I was able to reduce the file size (bandwidth) to 1/10 of the original.
The regenerated video at the other end was better than what I get on u-verse optical (whatever they use).
To be honest there were some anomalies in the regenerated video -- but hey, I was using off-the-shelf software and no hinting. Someone like Apple, who know what they are doing, should be able to obtain fantastic results at, say, 20% of the current bandwidth.
Success in Canada would open the door.
Here's my guess;
Apple will let content holders sell channels, through the Channel Store at any price they want. Apple will take 30%. Apple will deliver all content through the internet from a data center. Recording, previewing is done at the data centre. A building sized TiVO can record everything.
Currently, most content providers have to work hard for each new subscription. They need billing centres, they need cable and dish installers, technical support and they often subsidise PVR equipment. Even with high subscription fees, it might be 18 months before they see any return on a new customer.
Customers are then unwilling to subscribe because of the long contracts.
With the channel store model, the end-user presses "subscribe" and they are connected to that content instantly. The new channel package slots right in alongside the others.
For the user, they get a flat interface, searching, no boxes, infinite recording- and the best thing: Live multi-screen browsing. See all your channels at once.
For the content vendor, they get immediate revenue, can slash installation costs and hand-over technical support to someone else. Apple will let them charge whatever they like.
If there are arguments happening, I bet they are over ownership of customer viewing data, ease of cancellation that sort of thing.
C.
b) we may actually start getting decent television programming?the movie execs will have to work to justify their relevance;
c) i'm in. can't wait.
Now I use Nerflix so much I can say I vastly prefer the 'pay up front and no ad' model in the digital age too and can't wait for it to include live and current content. In the meantime I will stick with iTunes and Neflix as the closest to that model I can get. I believe Apple can eventually turn this industry around, hopefully sooner than later.
One side bar on the above is that the BBC being free from advertisers were able to produce what is recognized as some of the finest programming in the world, one example being David Attenborough's 'Life on Earth' award winning series in the 1970s. No political or religious interference by powerful advertisers or sponsors possible.
Market cap of Time Warner is $37bn; Apple could buy them and have lots of content to start the ball rolling!
That's only one county though, Apple are very global now and buying major networks and or cable companies in every country would be a mind boggling and complex mess. Steve always preached that keeping it simple and sticking with what you do works best and so far that seems to be working. They didn't have to buy any music labels to shift the earth under the music industry. However, I agree with others here that the film industry is terrified of losing control and probably see the music industry as a model they don't want for them. I don't really understand that as it is universally accepted the music industry was saved by Apple. Somehow the film industry need to realize they might actually be beter off moving in to a new, 21st century distribution model and Apple are the best company to deliver that.