My guess is in five years you and I will be using a very large touch based based system that is designed for pros and for creation. It will be as big of a leap forward as the Mac and a mouse was over the IBM PC that used DOS and a keyboard. When we introduced folks to the Mac many screamed they needed a command line and could not see the future of creativity unleashed by the mouse and a GUI. I suspect in five years we will look back at the OS X GUI and remember fondly as we use a touch interface, artificial intelligence, voice input and cloud services on a large screen and will be many times more productive. By the way the screens will be angled for comfort not verticle all the time ...
I remember how the IT people of the day dismissed color displays as non-professional and worthless. After all, nothing is better on the eyes then a black screen with green text and a pulsating cursor. Color...bah!
I disagree on the home user front. It's just a matter of time. The vast majority of home users with a PC (by which I mean a Wintel box) who get an iPad will never bother getting another PC. A tremendous number of PC sales to home users was done by offing another one cheaper than the cost of fixing their screwed up OS by nerds and shops alike. These folks only used them for email, web browsing and dealing with their digital music and photos plus games. Once they have had an iPad for a while the thought of getting another PC Will be far from their minds.
I agree those of us with higher computing needs will be using both for a few years to come. I do in fact see the Mac user base growing for some time to come.
Both my wife and I occassionally bring work home we need a PC. I don't think that is unusual. Even without bringing work home we still use excel and word for personal business. Likewise I think a laptop is still a better choice for a student than a iPad. Best choice is a laptop along with an iPad tho. Being a baby boomer with aging eyes I'm waiting for a 15" iPad. Maybe then I can ditch the PC.
Both my wife and I occassionally bring work home we need a PC. I don't think that is unusual. Even without bringing work home we still use excel and word for personal business. Likewise I think a laptop is still a better choice for a student than a iPad. Best choice is a laptop along with an iPad tho. Being a baby boomer with aging eyes I'm waiting for a 15" iPad. Maybe then I can ditch the PC.
I think you've pretty well encapsulated what's going to go down. I agree, too, that MS is going to sit out the digital revolution until it's all but passed by.
One thing I would dispute is your concept of an all-in-one. I think there will be a place for a physical phone and a tablet and maybe even a non-portable computer. While they may be distinct form factors and individual units ion one hand, they will be cloud connected, making them a single data device.
Oh I agree, I wasn't suggesting all in one as such ... rather a phone capability as well if needed on the iPad of the future. If alone why not chat using the iPad but if others are around I'd pick up my iPhone .. and obviously when not at my iPad.
My guess is MS will be to computing what Kodak was to digital photography.
I remember how the IT people of the day dismissed color displays as non-professional and worthless. After all, nothing is better on the eyes then a black screen with green text and a pulsating cursor. Color...bah!
LOL, yep I had to live through that! Of course there were some radical users that went for orange text
What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me. I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.
Mac mini based render farm - iPad, iMac or whatever controls the front end, scalable low end server farm to do the rendering
DigiTimes says that 130 million non-iPad tablets will be sold in 2013? That seems highly unlikely.
Maybe that many will be made, shipped to stores, returned or sold at a loss to clear inventory ... the term 'sold' is the part of the claim by DigiTimes that may be a little loose on its definition. Perhaps 'sold at a profit to end users that love them' would be a better definition if trying to make predictions that are credible in the context of competing with iPads.
LOL, yep I had to live through that! Of course there were some radical users that went for orange text
I guess I must have been a radical!! The green phosphors used in crts emit at two different wavelengths. Since these focus at different distances the theory was that your eye was constanty adjusting. The orange phosphors emitted at a single wavelength so it was easier on the eyes. That was the theory anyway.
Mac Pro/ PC workstations: for serious math, 3D, and graphics professionals, serious gamers.
iMacs/PC desktops: serious home use or work use for developers and users of apps like office, etc.
Laptops: mobile use of the above
iPads/tablets: email, Internet, wathing videos, casual gaming, casual computing at home and on the go
iPhones/phones: mobile access of the above
The iPad can't replace everything for everyone, but it can replace a traditional pc/laptop for many. It Is filling a niche people used to fill with a laptop or desktop. My parents don't need a desktop and an iPad would be perfect for them. No more confusing desktop OS to learn.
There will always be laptops and desktops, but now there will be far less sold as iPads are purchased instead by those who don't need a full pc.
The Pc market will shrink, but there will always be pcs just like there are still SUVs at $4 gas.
And I think apple will release a laptop with a strip down of OSX. It will run a version of iOS and have a Limited file system and be like a netbook, only different. When? Dunno, but it will be alongside real MacBook Pros but cost a lot less.
Apple will never stop making full-blown Mac Pros and MBPs, and they will continue to fill a gap the iPad cannot. But eventually, iPads will be pretty damn powerful and cheaper than bulky desktops. Maybe even tiny desktops that are just non-portable iPads? Four years of products were in the pipeline before Jobs died. I think the best is yet to come and the transformation of the consumer PC is just beginning.
Not a single mention of Windows 8? Very well, carry on as if it doesn't exist.
Given Dell, HP, Samsung and others will produce Win8 slates, I think it will do fine.
Since there isn't even a release date for windows 8 I think we indeed should carry on as if it doesn't exist, because it doesnt yet. When it does exist and if dell, hp, Samsung and others produce win8 slates we'll have something to discuss.
The iPad has enough horsepower run OSX. It is a matter of time... As for size I just bought a Samsung Series 7 with 4GB of RAM and the l5 CPU for 3D modeling.
Enough horsepower yes, but you can't run x86 (Intel Chipset) apps natively on an ARM device... So all those OSX apps would have to be ported, run in a VM (which no current ARM device could do efficiently), or there'd have to be an x86 powered iPad.
What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me. I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.
Well you could always buy a truck and take up farming.
I guess I must have been a radical!! The green phosphors used in crts emit at two different wavelengths. Since these focus at different distances the theory was that your eye was constanty adjusting. The orange phosphors emitted at a single wavelength so it was easier on the eyes. That was the theory anyway.
I admit I liked the orange screens on my XTs and Risk mini best too but I think it was because it made me think of orange juice. I even had an Osborn Portable with orange as my choice of screen. My Apple /// s were all green but by then I had color on my Apple ][s using modified TVs ... Was that rad or what! Then my two Lisas were black on white and that was the best by far then.
Enough horsepower yes, but you can't run x86 (Intel Chipset) apps natively on an ARM device... So all those OSX apps would have to be ported, run in a VM (which no current ARM device could do efficiently), or there'd have to be an x86 powered iPad.
Its not a question of horsepower as much as interface. I do a bit of work in 3D modeling, and even a 15 inch laptop without an extended keyboard lowers productivity. You really need a big monitor (or three) and different input devices.
I disagree on the home user front. It's just a matter of time. The vast majority of home users with a PC (by which I mean a Wintel box) who get an iPad will never bother getting another PC. A tremendous number of PC sales to home users was done by offing another one cheaper than the cost of fixing their screwed up OS by nerds and shops alike. These folks only used them for email, web browsing and dealing with their digital music and photos plus games. Once they have had an iPad for a while the thought of getting another PC Will be far from their minds.
I agree those of us with higher computing needs will be using both for a few years to come. I do in fact see the Mac user base growing for some time to come.
I don't see people being happy, holding a tiny 9.7" screen hours on end, and there are some things that a mouse + KB still do better. Also, until there is some sort of dock that allows for the connection of additional storage, monitors, input devices, an iPad just won't replace my PC with ~5-6 TB of storage, 8 GB RAM, 3 monitors, etc any time soon - tying to edit a bunch of RAW files on a tablet with limited storage and screen size for an extended period...no.
I could see getting an iPad over replacing my Mac, but my Mac was never my primary computer, and with how iCloud/iWork is improving on the iOS side, there really isn't much I couldn't do on an iPad in comparison, but I still couldn't see myself using it for more than an hour or two at a time, not without a dock, etc.
I don't see people being happy, holding a tiny 9.7" screen hours on end, and there are some things that a mouse + KB still do better.
I could see getting an iPad over replacing my Mac, but my Mac was never my primary computer, and with how iCloud/iWork is improving on the iOS side, there really isn't much I couldn't do on an iPad in comparison.
We are now entering the point where all possible input means a human being can use to communicate with a computer are possible :
- mouse/keyboard
- gestures (in the air or on a surface, with or without a stylus)
- voice
The iDevices combine some of these, but the presence (or not) of a physical keyboard discriminates, as well as the mobile nature (or not) for the time being.
Gestures on a surface implies to hold the device more or less horizontally, whereas mouse/keyboard imply the user to be seated, and the screen to be more or less vertical. This is , I believe, the reason for having separate devices (at least as long as the mouse/keyboard couple will survive).
To me , one of the most fascinating aspects of the iDevices is to be able to completely hide the file system notion. I wonder if this notion will survive. I am convinced (especially when I see my kids using our Macs) that the average current user does note want to care any more about organizing his data (and probably has become much too lazy for this).
Comments
My guess is in five years you and I will be using a very large touch based based system that is designed for pros and for creation. It will be as big of a leap forward as the Mac and a mouse was over the IBM PC that used DOS and a keyboard. When we introduced folks to the Mac many screamed they needed a command line and could not see the future of creativity unleashed by the mouse and a GUI. I suspect in five years we will look back at the OS X GUI and remember fondly as we use a touch interface, artificial intelligence, voice input and cloud services on a large screen and will be many times more productive. By the way the screens will be angled for comfort not verticle all the time ...
I remember how the IT people of the day dismissed color displays as non-professional and worthless. After all, nothing is better on the eyes then a black screen with green text and a pulsating cursor. Color...bah!
I disagree on the home user front. It's just a matter of time. The vast majority of home users with a PC (by which I mean a Wintel box) who get an iPad will never bother getting another PC. A tremendous number of PC sales to home users was done by offing another one cheaper than the cost of fixing their screwed up OS by nerds and shops alike. These folks only used them for email, web browsing and dealing with their digital music and photos plus games. Once they have had an iPad for a while the thought of getting another PC Will be far from their minds.
I agree those of us with higher computing needs will be using both for a few years to come. I do in fact see the Mac user base growing for some time to come.
Both my wife and I occassionally bring work home we need a PC. I don't think that is unusual. Even without bringing work home we still use excel and word for personal business. Likewise I think a laptop is still a better choice for a student than a iPad. Best choice is a laptop along with an iPad tho. Being a baby boomer with aging eyes I'm waiting for a 15" iPad. Maybe then I can ditch the PC.
Both my wife and I occassionally bring work home we need a PC. I don't think that is unusual. Even without bringing work home we still use excel and word for personal business. Likewise I think a laptop is still a better choice for a student than a iPad. Best choice is a laptop along with an iPad tho. Being a baby boomer with aging eyes I'm waiting for a 15" iPad. Maybe then I can ditch the PC.
Oh yes I agree on a larger iPad ... I'd love one!
I think you've pretty well encapsulated what's going to go down. I agree, too, that MS is going to sit out the digital revolution until it's all but passed by.
One thing I would dispute is your concept of an all-in-one. I think there will be a place for a physical phone and a tablet and maybe even a non-portable computer. While they may be distinct form factors and individual units ion one hand, they will be cloud connected, making them a single data device.
Oh I agree, I wasn't suggesting all in one as such ... rather a phone capability as well if needed on the iPad of the future. If alone why not chat using the iPad but if others are around I'd pick up my iPhone .. and obviously when not at my iPad.
My guess is MS will be to computing what Kodak was to digital photography.
I remember how the IT people of the day dismissed color displays as non-professional and worthless. After all, nothing is better on the eyes then a black screen with green text and a pulsating cursor. Color...bah!
LOL, yep I had to live through that! Of course there were some radical users that went for orange text
What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me. I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.
Mac mini based render farm - iPad, iMac or whatever controls the front end, scalable low end server farm to do the rendering
DigiTimes says that 130 million non-iPad tablets will be sold in 2013? That seems highly unlikely.
Maybe that many will be made, shipped to stores, returned or sold at a loss to clear inventory ... the term 'sold' is the part of the claim by DigiTimes that may be a little loose on its definition. Perhaps 'sold at a profit to end users that love them' would be a better definition if trying to make predictions that are credible in the context of competing with iPads.
LOL, yep I had to live through that! Of course there were some radical users that went for orange text
I guess I must have been a radical!! The green phosphors used in crts emit at two different wavelengths. Since these focus at different distances the theory was that your eye was constanty adjusting. The orange phosphors emitted at a single wavelength so it was easier on the eyes. That was the theory anyway.
Given Dell, HP, Samsung and others will produce Win8 slates, I think it will do fine.
Mac Pro/ PC workstations: for serious math, 3D, and graphics professionals, serious gamers.
iMacs/PC desktops: serious home use or work use for developers and users of apps like office, etc.
Laptops: mobile use of the above
iPads/tablets: email, Internet, wathing videos, casual gaming, casual computing at home and on the go
iPhones/phones: mobile access of the above
The iPad can't replace everything for everyone, but it can replace a traditional pc/laptop for many. It Is filling a niche people used to fill with a laptop or desktop. My parents don't need a desktop and an iPad would be perfect for them. No more confusing desktop OS to learn.
There will always be laptops and desktops, but now there will be far less sold as iPads are purchased instead by those who don't need a full pc.
The Pc market will shrink, but there will always be pcs just like there are still SUVs at $4 gas.
And I think apple will release a laptop with a strip down of OSX. It will run a version of iOS and have a Limited file system and be like a netbook, only different. When? Dunno, but it will be alongside real MacBook Pros but cost a lot less.
Apple will never stop making full-blown Mac Pros and MBPs, and they will continue to fill a gap the iPad cannot. But eventually, iPads will be pretty damn powerful and cheaper than bulky desktops. Maybe even tiny desktops that are just non-portable iPads? Four years of products were in the pipeline before Jobs died. I think the best is yet to come and the transformation of the consumer PC is just beginning.
Not a single mention of Windows 8? Very well, carry on as if it doesn't exist.
Given Dell, HP, Samsung and others will produce Win8 slates, I think it will do fine.
Since there isn't even a release date for windows 8 I think we indeed should carry on as if it doesn't exist, because it doesnt yet. When it does exist and if dell, hp, Samsung and others produce win8 slates we'll have something to discuss.
The iPad has enough horsepower run OSX. It is a matter of time... As for size I just bought a Samsung Series 7 with 4GB of RAM and the l5 CPU for 3D modeling.
Enough horsepower yes, but you can't run x86 (Intel Chipset) apps natively on an ARM device... So all those OSX apps would have to be ported, run in a VM (which no current ARM device could do efficiently), or there'd have to be an x86 powered iPad.
What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me. I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.
Well you could always buy a truck and take up farming.
I guess I must have been a radical!! The green phosphors used in crts emit at two different wavelengths. Since these focus at different distances the theory was that your eye was constanty adjusting. The orange phosphors emitted at a single wavelength so it was easier on the eyes. That was the theory anyway.
I admit I liked the orange screens on my XTs and Risk mini best too but I think it was because it made me think of orange juice. I even had an Osborn Portable with orange as my choice of screen. My Apple /// s were all green but by then I had color on my Apple ][s using modified TVs ... Was that rad or what! Then my two Lisas were black on white and that was the best by far then.
Enough horsepower yes, but you can't run x86 (Intel Chipset) apps natively on an ARM device... So all those OSX apps would have to be ported, run in a VM (which no current ARM device could do efficiently), or there'd have to be an x86 powered iPad.
Its not a question of horsepower as much as interface. I do a bit of work in 3D modeling, and even a 15 inch laptop without an extended keyboard lowers productivity. You really need a big monitor (or three) and different input devices.
I disagree on the home user front. It's just a matter of time. The vast majority of home users with a PC (by which I mean a Wintel box) who get an iPad will never bother getting another PC. A tremendous number of PC sales to home users was done by offing another one cheaper than the cost of fixing their screwed up OS by nerds and shops alike. These folks only used them for email, web browsing and dealing with their digital music and photos plus games. Once they have had an iPad for a while the thought of getting another PC Will be far from their minds.
I agree those of us with higher computing needs will be using both for a few years to come. I do in fact see the Mac user base growing for some time to come.
I don't see people being happy, holding a tiny 9.7" screen hours on end, and there are some things that a mouse + KB still do better. Also, until there is some sort of dock that allows for the connection of additional storage, monitors, input devices, an iPad just won't replace my PC with ~5-6 TB of storage, 8 GB RAM, 3 monitors, etc any time soon - tying to edit a bunch of RAW files on a tablet with limited storage and screen size for an extended period...no.
I could see getting an iPad over replacing my Mac, but my Mac was never my primary computer, and with how iCloud/iWork is improving on the iOS side, there really isn't much I couldn't do on an iPad in comparison, but I still couldn't see myself using it for more than an hour or two at a time, not without a dock, etc.
I don't see people being happy, holding a tiny 9.7" screen hours on end, and there are some things that a mouse + KB still do better.
I could see getting an iPad over replacing my Mac, but my Mac was never my primary computer, and with how iCloud/iWork is improving on the iOS side, there really isn't much I couldn't do on an iPad in comparison.
So we agree.
- mouse/keyboard
- gestures (in the air or on a surface, with or without a stylus)
- voice
The iDevices combine some of these, but the presence (or not) of a physical keyboard discriminates, as well as the mobile nature (or not) for the time being.
Gestures on a surface implies to hold the device more or less horizontally, whereas mouse/keyboard imply the user to be seated, and the screen to be more or less vertical. This is , I believe, the reason for having separate devices (at least as long as the mouse/keyboard couple will survive).
To me , one of the most fascinating aspects of the iDevices is to be able to completely hide the file system notion. I wonder if this notion will survive. I am convinced (especially when I see my kids using our Macs) that the average current user does note want to care any more about organizing his data (and probably has become much too lazy for this).