The good Windows tablets will surely have comparable displays to the new iPad. The manufacturers have absolutely no choice now that the iPad has raised the standard.
But look at the storage requirements for this high resolution on the new iPad. The entire iMove balloon from 82MB to 404MB. Not only that, even older iPad without the Retina display upgrading to the newer iOS must also inherit this gigantic increase in app size. 16GB iPad is simply not enough anymore. And it's only going to get worse as more apps are updated for Retina resolution. Frankly, I'm not sure if this Retina is worth it from a storage standpoint until price on the 32GB+ models come down.
"At the end of January, the iPad accounted for 58 percent of the market while Android held a 39 percent share. Microsoft came in a distant third with 1.5 percent."
Who are the companies that have Android based tablets out there and what are the model names of those tables that are comprising this 39 percent share? Is it Amazon's Kindle Fire? Is Amazon selling THAT many Kindle Fires? Are there others? I honestly didn't know that any competitors' tablets had gotten often the ground in any substantial way let alone sold the millions of tablets that would be needed to represent a big enough number of units sold to comprise a 39 percent share versus Apple's 58 percent share given the tens of millions of iPads Apple has now sold.
I'm being serious too...not sarcastic. Where and what are these Android based tablets that are selling in the millions?
P.S. Let alone accounting for the 1.5 percent share that Microsoft supposedly has when there is no Windows based tablet out there yet with the release of Windows 8 still on the horizon.
When I was marketing technology to business -- it was crucial to be aware of, and conform to, the annual budget/approval cycle of your target market. In those days, most of the companies went through an August-Sepetmber budget/approval cycle (October-November at the latest).
That meant that departments (including IT) would forecast their purchases based on what was available at the time -- or reliably known to be available for the next year.
If that is still true, then I believe that Microsoft has zero chance of hitting the 2012 budget cycle for 2013.
MS has no product, history or track record on which anyone could forecast a business decision to buy and install Windows 8 Tablets...
Would you make that decision if your job/future depended on it?
Ok I had to say this ... Couldn't resist ... "No one gets fired for buying iPad"
I don't know. But from the path that's being taken with Win8, I do get the impression that MS is taking the tablet market very seriously indeed and will pump in just about as much cash as it takes. Apple certainly has a head start, but MS has more clout and reputation than the various Android manufacturers and will put up a better fight. Of course, those factors didn't help MS very much with Windows Phone! But perhaps MS is fighting a little closer to its own territory with larger devices.
I believe you are right -- MS is taking the tablet market very seriously...
But they have little (no?) hardware manufacturing experience, infrastructure or supply chain. They are totally dependent on the OEMs.
The OEMs have none of this for tablets, either... though they have experience, infrastructure and supply chains for phones (and some for laptops and desktops).
Let's just say that MS needs to get OEMs to manufacture and deliver 10 million Windows 8 ARM tablets between Oct 2012 and April 2013. (I don't believe Windows 8 Intel tablets are possible in this time frame)
Where are the parts ~= to the new iPad going to come from?
Can they match the $499 new iPad in quality?
Where are the apps?
I believe this is a consumer device (no advantage for Win 8 ARM to business & as I posted earlier, they missed the budget cycle). Why would a consumer buy this device?
Would you spend $499 + to buy a Windows 8 ARM tablet that only runs Windows Phone apps, Windows 8 ARM Office and a few [MS-paid developer] apps like Angry Birds?
It took Apple 10 years to attain their position, experience and infrastructure... you don't roll that out in a year or two...
What's the point... that's what MS needs to ask itself... What's the point?
Ok I had to say this ... Couldn't resist ... "No one gets fired for buying iPad"
In the words of Don Williams (Ex IBMer, former West Florida resident, special assistant to Mike Markkula, developer of MS Works): You done broke the code!
My take is after running the beta, pros will prefer 7 on PCs and consumers will prefer iPads for tablets. Then I am biased.
Well, I can't see Enterprise customers wanting to switch over to touch-screen monitors and new software that is "touch screen aware" just to take advantage of Win8. They usually do it "all or none" to make it easier for IT to support. MS is making the bar too high for Win8 adoption IMHO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jwestveer
Micro$oft must think that someone cares. A newer buggy whip will not have much of a market, now that people are driving automobiles.
Apple's success with the Fortune 2000 Enterprise market with the iPhone and iPads seems to agree with your comment. MS can call it WM8 but it's still V1.0 in an Apple world of V 5.1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum
What is the other device?
a phone, likely made my Nokia
Quote:
When will Intel Windows 8 Tablets be available?
probably a lot later then needed to make the holiday season. Remember, Apple began production of the new iPad in December for a mid March ship date...and this was the third release. You don't do what Apple has done on your first new product roll out. ( 3 million this time, 300K on iPad1)
Quote:
Will Windows 8 ARM tablet success be dependent on Office on ARM?
Office is the only new thing MS brings to the tablet market.
Quote:
Will there be a reasonable library of apps available... When?
Nope. It's all smoke and mirrors. MS will talk about how legacy applications will run on their phone and tablet, but since they haven't been re-written to fit on smaller devices and been made to be touch aware, they just won't be viable at all.
Quote:
Will consumers have any interest in these devices?
None, except for the nerds who hate Apple and love cords & cables on their portable devices.
Quote:
Will enterprise have any interest in these devices?
I expect enterprise will check them out and find the similarity to Win7 to be too lacking and too late.
Quote:
When do most enterprise departments go through their budget/approval cycle?
First they need to go through an approval process to even add the Windows tablet to their purchase list, then quantity purchases will not happen until late 2012.
Keep in mind that the school systems are in the middle of their purchasing cycle right now, so no hope for WIN8 tablets until the 2013-2014 school year.
Also, the federal government purchasing cycle starts in June-July, so MS misses this window too.
Quote:
If MS releases Windows 8 ARM tablets in October... will it matter?
I think it's too late. Android will be the phone/tablet of choice for the inexperienced and unsophisticated buyer with little money.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdq2
Windows 8 on ARM should have every bit of the success that those blockbuster Kin phones had.
Sounds like Redmond is about as committed to them as they were to the Kins too.
The Kin was a product that was over three years behind the market. It had no hope in the mix with Apple and Android. The WinMo7 phone would have had some hope against the first iPhone but it too was hurried to market against iPhone 4. Now Win8 is not even on the market and unlikely to be any competition to what Apple is already selling in the iPad 2, much less the new iPad. If Win8 were to go head to head with Apple's 4S phone is would have a hard time, but it will be up against this year's 2012 version, which no one even knows what magic it may have.
None of this takes in account
(a) the tight integration between Apple's hardware and software.
(b) The tight integration between how the iPhone, iPad, and OSX syncs with the MS Windows already.
(c) the almost total acceptance of the iPhone and iPad has had by the Fortune 2000 enterprise market.
Win8 is about 6 years behind where the puck once was. It's late in the 4th quarter and Team Microsoft is still in the locker room struggling with their jock straps while Apple has scored 100 million points.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobwoods
I don't know if rushing Win8 to market will do MS any good.
I've been playing with both the DP and CP versions recently, and it feels very unfinished (OK, it's a preview) and awfully clunky. If things don't change much between now and the sales date, it'll be Vista v.2. The Metro/desktop situation is confusing at first - a lot of people are going to feel unhappy and lost.
I helped my dad through the transition from XP to 7 this week, remembering the video of Chris Pirillo's dad and thinking "if he's lost now, he'll never figure out 8."
Your first sentence said it all. Allow me to repeat it for effect:
"I don't know if rushing Win8 to market will do MS any good."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skaag
My prophecy for the whole Windows 8 effort:
- Microsoft will announce a roadmap to release, Their clown CEO will call it the greatest evolution of the OS since Windows NT (Neanderthal Technology)
< snip >
- Horrible security exploits will be discovered that compromise consumer machines and allow for theft of identity and resources (some will be made public, most won't), as well as used for bot nets and spam nets.
I agree with almost everything thing you predict, except that ding against the 1977 Chevy Nova.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Knocks
Windows 8 works extremely well on a desktop. I've only been using the consumer preview for 3 weeks, but have already made it my primary OS and can't imagine going back to Windows 7 or OS X.
Please don't let that get out. You'll embarrass your kids to death.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MusicComposer
The Metro UI is pretty nice, at least it's original compared to the route Android took. I like that you can switch to the classic Windows view too if for some reason you hate Metro. To be honest I'm a bit intrigued by these Windows 8 Intel tablets because I have specific programs that can ONLY run on Windows. Legacy support really appeals to me, I can be much more productive on one of these.
How in the world are those legacy programs going to run on a touch device? They will be looking for you to pull down menus with a mouse and tab between fields. The legacy programs are not "touch aware" and need to be re-written. They also need to be scaled for the smaller phone and tablet screens so you can read the text and poke the teensie buttons.
If so, they might as well be written for iOS
Some people just hate Microsoft, I think people are underestimating how well these will do. Apple will be approaching 100 million iPads sold by the time these are released but I really predict Windows tablets will be taking the number 2 spot eventually.
Your prediction may become true. However Samsung and Nokia have their own fledgling OSs in the works and could garner some traction since MS is really so late to this dog fight.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum
When do you think Windows 8 Intel tablets will be generally available and:
1) have Acceptable power to run legacy apps
2) have An acceptable touch interface for legacy apps
3) have Acceptable battery life?
4) provide a viable cost/function alternative to a Windows 8 Laptop
From what I understand, there will be no viable Windows 8 Intel tablets before mid 2013 -- if ever.
And, no legacy desktop apps will run on Windows 8 ARM tablets.
I suspect that the iPad will hit 100 million users sometime before Dec 31, 2012.
Your last three (unnumbered) sentences are particularly true and important observations
I don't think the Metro interface is bad on a tablet. I think it's a HORRIBLE idea for a desktop.
I couldnt agree more. I downloaded the beta one of my PC's and gave it a college try. I'm quite versed in all operating systems, and while I prefer Apple products, I think that PC's have their spot too. With that said, Wndows 8 is a pile of crap. I have tried it on a mobile device and it's alright. But the PC version is just dreadful. It's not intuitive at all which makes it a stinker.
In the words of Don Williams (Ex IBMer, former West Florida resident, special assistant to Mike Markkula, developer of MS Works): You done broke the code!
In the words if "Jesi Slaughter's" dad, "Consequences will never be the same!"
I couldnt agree more. I downloaded the beta one of my PC's and gave it a college try. I'm quite versed in all operating systems, and while I prefer Apple products, I think that PC's have their spot too. With that said, Wndows 8 is a pile of crap. I have tried it on a mobile device and it's alright. But the PC version is just dreadful. It's not intuitive at all which makes it a stinker.
Gartner estimates that over 103 million tablets will be sold in 2012, with the number more than tripling to 326.3 million by 2015.
That's about 40 million tablets a month by 2015.
Quote:
Gartner expects that a flood of Android and Windows devices will dilute the iPad's market share to 46 percent in 2015
That's about 19 million iPads a month, and I believe a 46% share is low. The variable here is Google and Microsoft, will they deliver a superior alternative to the iPad experience and ecosystem by 2015?
KOB thinks not. Expect iPad to, just like the iPod achieved, about a 75% market share by 2015.
That's about 30 million tablets a month. Add in, let's say, 10 million iPhones a month, plus, let's say, another 5 million iMacs, MBA's and the rest of the product line, that equals about 45 million units a month by 2015.
If Apple maintains it's 40-50% margins, and continues to grab 75% of the profits, is it no longer unreasonable to consider AAPL trading at $1000-$1200 by 2015?
But look at the storage requirements for this high resolution on the new iPad. The entire iMove balloon from 82MB to 404MB. Not only that, even older iPad without the Retina display upgrading to the newer iOS must also inherit this gigantic increase in app size. 16GB iPad is simply not enough anymore. And it's only going to get worse as more apps are updated for Retina resolution. Frankly, I'm not sure if this Retina is worth it from a storage standpoint until price on the 32GB+ models come down.
Code:
App_______iPad 2____Retina iPad
Keynote___110____327 MB
Numbers__104____375 MB
Pages_____89____331 MB
iMovie_____82____404 MB
iPhoto_____N/A___129 MB
Total______385___1566 MB > 300% increase
1) iPhoto didn't exist before it was Retina Display ready so counted it as a 0 MB app is disingenuous.
2) iMovie was not an iPad app before it was updated to work on both iPad resolutions.
3) Infinity Blade II went from being a 940 MB app to being only 791 MB for the update that enabled it to be Retina Display ready. So we only looked at that app we could see that apps are getting smaller with the Retina Display.. but that would be fair or honest.
4) There are certainly aspects to an app that will require more code to make them Universal for the new resolution and larger elements, like bitmaps, but to suggest that app sizes are increasing solely because of the new display resolution and not because of any new features that could be added to the update is erroneous. As we see with Infinity Blade II you can actually go down in size if you can make your code more efficient.
I love Metro as Windows Phone 7. It's also starting to grow on me on the desktop. It's interesting (and I approve of it) because it's actually a moderately different way of going about things. Yeah, it operates pretty much the same as Launchpad (whose compression in 10.8 DP2 I'm no fan of?), but at least it's different.
Windows 8 shows that when Microsoft actually thinks for themselves, they can build something unique. Yes, they stole the idea of taking the best stuff from a phone OS and putting it on a desktop OS from Apple, but the ideas themselves are different.
My biggest problem with Windows 8 is that when Microsoft actually thinks for themselves, they create some absolute crap that vaporizes the experience, turning the phrase "user experience" into "user ordeal". Much of this is the lack of intuitiveness in, well, virtually every single new feature. And that stacks on top of ALL of the unintuitive nonsense from classic Windows that sticks around.
I love the new Task Manager, though. It's much better than it has ever been. Though I imagine they made it so much better because of how often they had to open it to fix things.
The only Windows I'll ever need is XP. I have server 2003 with SQL 2005 on one machine which is why is still have an XP machine at the office to do remote desktop. I also have Vista on a home office machine which last time it was turned on was around 8 months ago and I only used it for an hour or less at that time.
I don't know if people will like Windows tablets, but the fact that MS are using Windows proper for their tablet OS betrays their belief about the future.
Publicly they will not admit that tablets will take over from PCs, but privately they must believe it.
I've been running the Consumer Preview as the primary OS on my PC and I have to say Microsoft is really on to something with these tiles. The Mac OS looks ancient in comparison. It's nice to have your whole life laid out for you on one screen without having to actually launch any programs.
I wouldn't be surprised if Apple copies it in one form or the other when they finally release their replacement for the 30 year old desktop metaphor.
1) Even with an i3 a Windows 8 tablet would be powerful enough to run many legacy programs. I occasionally run Cubase, FL Studio, and Toon Boom Animate on a Core2Duo 2.2ghz and any i3 would destroy that.
2) Yes, the touch interface is the main problem with controlling legacy programs but at least you can plugin a standard USB mouse. Microsoft has improved touch recognition as well so who knows. We'll have to see once they're released.
3) I haven't heard any facts about how long the battery life will be on a Windows 8 tablet. Was there an article about it saying otherwise? I think there would have to be tablets released to make that claim.
4) Well Ultrabooks are already $1,000 with almost the exact same specs as the MacBook Air. If the performance and price is around that then it'd be perfectly fine for me. The whole point is portable computing and with one of these I personally could be more productive than using either an iPad(which I have) or an Android tablet(which I sold). Don't get me wrong though I'm looking at just buying one of the new Ivy Bridge MacBook Airs once they're released. Hopefully next month! I'm merely saying that these will be more popular than people realize and I think they'll eventually surpass Android in the tablet market.
I thought Microsoft was launching with Intel-based tablets? If they're released with Atom processors I'd definitely skip them but an i3 would be pretty nice.
"With the October launch, Microsoft is aiming to lure Christmas Holiday season buyers.
There will be both ARM and Intel-based solutions, just as promised, but initially Intel machines will dominate as there will be more than 40 systems running on Intel architectures and less than 5 running on ARM."
But it seems like you're shooting for what MS has had on the market for the last 10 years without any success: an Intel tablet running legacy Windows lightly touch-ified. If it sucked all those years, why is it going to be better now? Because it will be in the vicinity of Metro, which won't be running those legacy apps?
It almost seems like MS couldn't or wouldn't figure out how to genuinely make Windows, per se, touch friendly, so they did this two headed Metro/legacy thing, in the hopes that they could sort of blur the difference. I don't see how that works.
The whole promise, a while back, of "Windows on tablets" was that you could get iPad like battery life, weight and ease of use with a device running "real Windows." But it turns out you can't. You can have iPad like battery life etc on a device that runs what amounts to a new OS that doesn't run Windows apps. Or you can have some version of Windows on Intel tablets, which you've been able to do for years. Or you can have regular Windows plus Metro on the desktop, for no apparent reason.
It really doesn't hang together for me. Metro seems cool enough, but that whole "run around with your tablet then pop it into a dock and turn into into a full blown Windows machine" doesn't actually seem to be operative (unless you're running around with a big, heavy Intel device for which the genuinely touch optimized apps don't have much to do with what we currently think of as "Windows"). So I'm not quite seeing the draw.
Comments
The good Windows tablets will surely have comparable displays to the new iPad. The manufacturers have absolutely no choice now that the iPad has raised the standard.
But look at the storage requirements for this high resolution on the new iPad. The entire iMove balloon from 82MB to 404MB. Not only that, even older iPad without the Retina display upgrading to the newer iOS must also inherit this gigantic increase in app size. 16GB iPad is simply not enough anymore. And it's only going to get worse as more apps are updated for Retina resolution. Frankly, I'm not sure if this Retina is worth it from a storage standpoint until price on the 32GB+ models come down.
App_______iPad 2____Retina iPad
Keynote___110____327 MB
Numbers__104____375 MB
Pages_____89____331 MB
iMovie_____82____404 MB
iPhoto_____N/A___129 MB
Total______385___1566 MB > 300% increase
Who are the companies that have Android based tablets out there and what are the model names of those tables that are comprising this 39 percent share? Is it Amazon's Kindle Fire? Is Amazon selling THAT many Kindle Fires? Are there others? I honestly didn't know that any competitors' tablets had gotten often the ground in any substantial way let alone sold the millions of tablets that would be needed to represent a big enough number of units sold to comprise a 39 percent share versus Apple's 58 percent share given the tens of millions of iPads Apple has now sold.
I'm being serious too...not sarcastic. Where and what are these Android based tablets that are selling in the millions?
P.S. Let alone accounting for the 1.5 percent share that Microsoft supposedly has when there is no Windows based tablet out there yet with the release of Windows 8 still on the horizon.
When I was marketing technology to business -- it was crucial to be aware of, and conform to, the annual budget/approval cycle of your target market. In those days, most of the companies went through an August-Sepetmber budget/approval cycle (October-November at the latest).
That meant that departments (including IT) would forecast their purchases based on what was available at the time -- or reliably known to be available for the next year.
If that is still true, then I believe that Microsoft has zero chance of hitting the 2012 budget cycle for 2013.
MS has no product, history or track record on which anyone could forecast a business decision to buy and install Windows 8 Tablets...
Would you make that decision if your job/future depended on it?
Ok I had to say this ... Couldn't resist ... "No one gets fired for buying iPad"
I don't know. But from the path that's being taken with Win8, I do get the impression that MS is taking the tablet market very seriously indeed and will pump in just about as much cash as it takes. Apple certainly has a head start, but MS has more clout and reputation than the various Android manufacturers and will put up a better fight. Of course, those factors didn't help MS very much with Windows Phone! But perhaps MS is fighting a little closer to its own territory with larger devices.
I believe you are right -- MS is taking the tablet market very seriously...
But they have little (no?) hardware manufacturing experience, infrastructure or supply chain. They are totally dependent on the OEMs.
The OEMs have none of this for tablets, either... though they have experience, infrastructure and supply chains for phones (and some for laptops and desktops).
Let's just say that MS needs to get OEMs to manufacture and deliver 10 million Windows 8 ARM tablets between Oct 2012 and April 2013. (I don't believe Windows 8 Intel tablets are possible in this time frame)
Where are the parts ~= to the new iPad going to come from?
Can they match the $499 new iPad in quality?
Where are the apps?
I believe this is a consumer device (no advantage for Win 8 ARM to business & as I posted earlier, they missed the budget cycle). Why would a consumer buy this device?
Would you spend $499 + to buy a Windows 8 ARM tablet that only runs Windows Phone apps, Windows 8 ARM Office and a few [MS-paid developer] apps like Angry Birds?
It took Apple 10 years to attain their position, experience and infrastructure... you don't roll that out in a year or two...
What's the point... that's what MS needs to ask itself... What's the point?
Ok I had to say this ... Couldn't resist ... "No one gets fired for buying iPad"
In the words of Don Williams (Ex IBMer, former West Florida resident, special assistant to Mike Markkula, developer of MS Works): You done broke the code!
Anyway, I hope he does another conga dance or something at the launch.
My take is after running the beta, pros will prefer 7 on PCs and consumers will prefer iPads for tablets. Then I am biased.
Well, I can't see Enterprise customers wanting to switch over to touch-screen monitors and new software that is "touch screen aware" just to take advantage of Win8. They usually do it "all or none" to make it easier for IT to support. MS is making the bar too high for Win8 adoption IMHO.
Micro$oft must think that someone cares. A newer buggy whip will not have much of a market, now that people are driving automobiles.
Apple's success with the Fortune 2000 Enterprise market with the iPhone and iPads seems to agree with your comment. MS can call it WM8 but it's still V1.0 in an Apple world of V 5.1.
What is the other device?
a phone, likely made my Nokia
When will Intel Windows 8 Tablets be available?
probably a lot later then needed to make the holiday season. Remember, Apple began production of the new iPad in December for a mid March ship date...and this was the third release. You don't do what Apple has done on your first new product roll out. ( 3 million this time, 300K on iPad1)
Will Windows 8 ARM tablet success be dependent on Office on ARM?
Office is the only new thing MS brings to the tablet market.
Will there be a reasonable library of apps available... When?
Nope. It's all smoke and mirrors. MS will talk about how legacy applications will run on their phone and tablet, but since they haven't been re-written to fit on smaller devices and been made to be touch aware, they just won't be viable at all.
Will consumers have any interest in these devices?
None, except for the nerds who hate Apple and love cords & cables on their portable devices.
Will enterprise have any interest in these devices?
I expect enterprise will check them out and find the similarity to Win7 to be too lacking and too late.
When do most enterprise departments go through their budget/approval cycle?
First they need to go through an approval process to even add the Windows tablet to their purchase list, then quantity purchases will not happen until late 2012.
Keep in mind that the school systems are in the middle of their purchasing cycle right now, so no hope for WIN8 tablets until the 2013-2014 school year.
Also, the federal government purchasing cycle starts in June-July, so MS misses this window too.
If MS releases Windows 8 ARM tablets in October... will it matter?
I think it's too late. Android will be the phone/tablet of choice for the inexperienced and unsophisticated buyer with little money.
Windows 8 on ARM should have every bit of the success that those blockbuster Kin phones had.
Sounds like Redmond is about as committed to them as they were to the Kins too.
The Kin was a product that was over three years behind the market. It had no hope in the mix with Apple and Android. The WinMo7 phone would have had some hope against the first iPhone but it too was hurried to market against iPhone 4. Now Win8 is not even on the market and unlikely to be any competition to what Apple is already selling in the iPad 2, much less the new iPad. If Win8 were to go head to head with Apple's 4S phone is would have a hard time, but it will be up against this year's 2012 version, which no one even knows what magic it may have.
None of this takes in account
(a) the tight integration between Apple's hardware and software.
(b) The tight integration between how the iPhone, iPad, and OSX syncs with the MS Windows already.
(c) the almost total acceptance of the iPhone and iPad has had by the Fortune 2000 enterprise market.
Win8 is about 6 years behind where the puck once was. It's late in the 4th quarter and Team Microsoft is still in the locker room struggling with their jock straps while Apple has scored 100 million points.
I don't know if rushing Win8 to market will do MS any good.
I've been playing with both the DP and CP versions recently, and it feels very unfinished (OK, it's a preview) and awfully clunky. If things don't change much between now and the sales date, it'll be Vista v.2. The Metro/desktop situation is confusing at first - a lot of people are going to feel unhappy and lost.
I helped my dad through the transition from XP to 7 this week, remembering the video of Chris Pirillo's dad and thinking "if he's lost now, he'll never figure out 8."
Your first sentence said it all. Allow me to repeat it for effect:
"I don't know if rushing Win8 to market will do MS any good."
My prophecy for the whole Windows 8 effort:
- Microsoft will announce a roadmap to release, Their clown CEO will call it the greatest evolution of the OS since Windows NT (Neanderthal Technology)
< snip >
- Horrible security exploits will be discovered that compromise consumer machines and allow for theft of identity and resources (some will be made public, most won't), as well as used for bot nets and spam nets.
I agree with almost everything thing you predict, except that ding against the 1977 Chevy Nova.
Windows 8 works extremely well on a desktop. I've only been using the consumer preview for 3 weeks, but have already made it my primary OS and can't imagine going back to Windows 7 or OS X.
Please don't let that get out. You'll embarrass your kids to death.
The Metro UI is pretty nice, at least it's original compared to the route Android took. I like that you can switch to the classic Windows view too if for some reason you hate Metro. To be honest I'm a bit intrigued by these Windows 8 Intel tablets because I have specific programs that can ONLY run on Windows. Legacy support really appeals to me, I can be much more productive on one of these.
How in the world are those legacy programs going to run on a touch device? They will be looking for you to pull down menus with a mouse and tab between fields. The legacy programs are not "touch aware" and need to be re-written. They also need to be scaled for the smaller phone and tablet screens so you can read the text and poke the teensie buttons.
If so, they might as well be written for iOS
Some people just hate Microsoft, I think people are underestimating how well these will do. Apple will be approaching 100 million iPads sold by the time these are released but I really predict Windows tablets will be taking the number 2 spot eventually.
Your prediction may become true. However Samsung and Nokia have their own fledgling OSs in the works and could garner some traction since MS is really so late to this dog fight.
When do you think Windows 8 Intel tablets will be generally available and:
1) have Acceptable power to run legacy apps
2) have An acceptable touch interface for legacy apps
3) have Acceptable battery life?
4) provide a viable cost/function alternative to a Windows 8 Laptop
From what I understand, there will be no viable Windows 8 Intel tablets before mid 2013 -- if ever.
And, no legacy desktop apps will run on Windows 8 ARM tablets.
I suspect that the iPad will hit 100 million users sometime before Dec 31, 2012.
Your last three (unnumbered) sentences are particularly true and important observations
Man... I apologize for launching on this thread... but this is logistics, baby, logistics.
I don't think the Metro interface is bad on a tablet. I think it's a HORRIBLE idea for a desktop.
I couldnt agree more. I downloaded the beta one of my PC's and gave it a college try. I'm quite versed in all operating systems, and while I prefer Apple products, I think that PC's have their spot too. With that said, Wndows 8 is a pile of crap. I have tried it on a mobile device and it's alright. But the PC version is just dreadful. It's not intuitive at all which makes it a stinker.
Didn't balmer say that tablets would go away in a couple of years....a couple of years ago?
Anyway, I hope he does another conga dance or something at the launch.
Seems like Steve Ballmer, Bobby Knight and Bobby Flay have scheduled a throw down... my money's on Flay!
In the words of Don Williams (Ex IBMer, former West Florida resident, special assistant to Mike Markkula, developer of MS Works): You done broke the code!
In the words if "Jesi Slaughter's" dad, "Consequences will never be the same!"
I couldnt agree more. I downloaded the beta one of my PC's and gave it a college try. I'm quite versed in all operating systems, and while I prefer Apple products, I think that PC's have their spot too. With that said, Wndows 8 is a pile of crap. I have tried it on a mobile device and it's alright. But the PC version is just dreadful. It's not intuitive at all which makes it a stinker.
It's a Zune I tell you
Gartner estimates that over 103 million tablets will be sold in 2012, with the number more than tripling to 326.3 million by 2015.
That's about 40 million tablets a month by 2015.
Gartner expects that a flood of Android and Windows devices will dilute the iPad's market share to 46 percent in 2015
That's about 19 million iPads a month, and I believe a 46% share is low. The variable here is Google and Microsoft, will they deliver a superior alternative to the iPad experience and ecosystem by 2015?
KOB thinks not. Expect iPad to, just like the iPod achieved, about a 75% market share by 2015.
That's about 30 million tablets a month. Add in, let's say, 10 million iPhones a month, plus, let's say, another 5 million iMacs, MBA's and the rest of the product line, that equals about 45 million units a month by 2015.
If Apple maintains it's 40-50% margins, and continues to grab 75% of the profits, is it no longer unreasonable to consider AAPL trading at $1000-$1200 by 2015?
But look at the storage requirements for this high resolution on the new iPad. The entire iMove balloon from 82MB to 404MB. Not only that, even older iPad without the Retina display upgrading to the newer iOS must also inherit this gigantic increase in app size. 16GB iPad is simply not enough anymore. And it's only going to get worse as more apps are updated for Retina resolution. Frankly, I'm not sure if this Retina is worth it from a storage standpoint until price on the 32GB+ models come down.
App_______iPad 2____Retina iPad
Keynote___110____327 MB
Numbers__104____375 MB
Pages_____89____331 MB
iMovie_____82____404 MB
iPhoto_____N/A___129 MB
Total______385___1566 MB > 300% increase
1) iPhoto didn't exist before it was Retina Display ready so counted it as a 0 MB app is disingenuous.
2) iMovie was not an iPad app before it was updated to work on both iPad resolutions.
3) Infinity Blade II went from being a 940 MB app to being only 791 MB for the update that enabled it to be Retina Display ready. So we only looked at that app we could see that apps are getting smaller with the Retina Display.. but that would be fair or honest.
4) There are certainly aspects to an app that will require more code to make them Universal for the new resolution and larger elements, like bitmaps, but to suggest that app sizes are increasing solely because of the new display resolution and not because of any new features that could be added to the update is erroneous. As we see with Infinity Blade II you can actually go down in size if you can make your code more efficient.
I love Metro as Windows Phone 7. It's also starting to grow on me on the desktop. It's interesting (and I approve of it) because it's actually a moderately different way of going about things. Yeah, it operates pretty much the same as Launchpad (whose compression in 10.8 DP2 I'm no fan of?), but at least it's different.
Windows 8 shows that when Microsoft actually thinks for themselves, they can build something unique. Yes, they stole the idea of taking the best stuff from a phone OS and putting it on a desktop OS from Apple, but the ideas themselves are different.
My biggest problem with Windows 8 is that when Microsoft actually thinks for themselves, they create some absolute crap that vaporizes the experience, turning the phrase "user experience" into "user ordeal". Much of this is the lack of intuitiveness in, well, virtually every single new feature. And that stacks on top of ALL of the unintuitive nonsense from classic Windows that sticks around.
I love the new Task Manager, though. It's much better than it has ever been. Though I imagine they made it so much better because of how often they had to open it to fix things.
Publicly they will not admit that tablets will take over from PCs, but privately they must believe it.
or,
Will they outdo their previously record holding lameness factor?
I wouldn't be surprised if Apple copies it in one form or the other when they finally release their replacement for the 30 year old desktop metaphor.
1) Even with an i3 a Windows 8 tablet would be powerful enough to run many legacy programs. I occasionally run Cubase, FL Studio, and Toon Boom Animate on a Core2Duo 2.2ghz and any i3 would destroy that.
2) Yes, the touch interface is the main problem with controlling legacy programs but at least you can plugin a standard USB mouse. Microsoft has improved touch recognition as well so who knows. We'll have to see once they're released.
3) I haven't heard any facts about how long the battery life will be on a Windows 8 tablet. Was there an article about it saying otherwise? I think there would have to be tablets released to make that claim.
4) Well Ultrabooks are already $1,000 with almost the exact same specs as the MacBook Air. If the performance and price is around that then it'd be perfectly fine for me. The whole point is portable computing and with one of these I personally could be more productive than using either an iPad(which I have) or an Android tablet(which I sold). Don't get me wrong though I'm looking at just buying one of the new Ivy Bridge MacBook Airs once they're released. Hopefully next month! I'm merely saying that these will be more popular than people realize and I think they'll eventually surpass Android in the tablet market.
I thought Microsoft was launching with Intel-based tablets? If they're released with Atom processors I'd definitely skip them but an i3 would be pretty nice.
"With the October launch, Microsoft is aiming to lure Christmas Holiday season buyers.
There will be both ARM and Intel-based solutions, just as promised, but initially Intel machines will dominate as there will be more than 40 systems running on Intel architectures and less than 5 running on ARM."
But it seems like you're shooting for what MS has had on the market for the last 10 years without any success: an Intel tablet running legacy Windows lightly touch-ified. If it sucked all those years, why is it going to be better now? Because it will be in the vicinity of Metro, which won't be running those legacy apps?
It almost seems like MS couldn't or wouldn't figure out how to genuinely make Windows, per se, touch friendly, so they did this two headed Metro/legacy thing, in the hopes that they could sort of blur the difference. I don't see how that works.
The whole promise, a while back, of "Windows on tablets" was that you could get iPad like battery life, weight and ease of use with a device running "real Windows." But it turns out you can't. You can have iPad like battery life etc on a device that runs what amounts to a new OS that doesn't run Windows apps. Or you can have some version of Windows on Intel tablets, which you've been able to do for years. Or you can have regular Windows plus Metro on the desktop, for no apparent reason.
It really doesn't hang together for me. Metro seems cool enough, but that whole "run around with your tablet then pop it into a dock and turn into into a full blown Windows machine" doesn't actually seem to be operative (unless you're running around with a big, heavy Intel device for which the genuinely touch optimized apps don't have much to do with what we currently think of as "Windows"). So I'm not quite seeing the draw.