They use existing sales trends, interview stores for buying trends across the various products, then run algorithms to try and predict the future. This is done in every industry so why are you surprised? Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever? Seriously, are you that naive? Apple has had leads in the past and squandered them before so WAKE UP.
Wow, a RIM shill. I've never seen one of those before. Still, give it a few more months and they'll be redundant. Hey, try HTC next, their market share is on the slide too.
I'm so surprised that they can predict a trend five years into the future, on a product category that was effectively created a little more than two years ago. There is not enough history to be able to predict with any accuracy that far ahead. In fact considering what Apple did with a somewhat similar product category - personal music players - I believe you could predict just the opposite.
It's really amazing that people are getting worked up over the fact that someone is offering a 5 year projection. That's very standard in business and most large businesses have market projections that go out 5 years or more - as do market research firms. Why is everyone surprised that there's a 5 year projection?
If you're going to criticize this projection, you can instead criticize the assumptions or methodology - but you'd have to read the report to see that. They may have made reasonable assumptions and used decent methodology or they may not. But without knowing the details of how they arrived at their figures, any criticism is pointless.
Based on my own marketing experience and the assumptions I can make, Apple dropping to 50% in 5 years would not surprise me in the least. It is one thing to maintain 80% share in a $200 device like the iPod. When you get into a device that's approaching $1,000 including accessories at the high end, there's a lot more room for differentiation. I fully expect that there will be a number of cheap tablets of various sizes at the low end where Apple doesn't even attempt to compete and it wouldn't surprise me for the low end market to eventually reach 50% as people start accumulating 2 or 3 tablets in the home. If you already have a full featured iPad, it is entirely reasonable to buy a cheap limited tablet just for kids to read books or watch movies while traveling, for example.
Who comes up with sh!t??!! I mean really, you can predict 5 years into the future??!! Predict me the next lotto numbers.
Assuming Apple stops all innovation from this point forward, then that might be the case.
The same kinds of idiots predicted that the iPad would only have some 40% of market share by 2011... They have absolutely no clue with such numbers pulled out of their arses.
"“So far in this relatively young product category, the tablet PC market has been dominated by Apple and has tended to include a number of competing products that are similarly configured to the iPad,” said NPD DisplaySearch Senior Analyst Richard Shim. 'However, as the market matures and competitors become better attuned to consumer preferences and find opportunities to break new ground, we expect the landscape to change dramatically, giving consumers more choices, which will drive demand for more devices.'"
"... as the market matures ..." - just like the audio market matured and the Zune and Sony swiped huge market share from iPods and iTunes.
"... and competitors become better attuned to consumer preferences ..." - wishful thinking.
"... find opportunities to break new ground ..." - if Apple doesn't get there before them.
"... dramatically ..." - where have we heard that one before?
"... giving consumers more choices, which will drive demand for more devices ...” - since when do more bad choices drive demand?
This forecast rests on nothing more than one analyst's puffery, unsupported by any hard evidence.
They use existing sales trends, interview stores for buying trends across the various products, then run algorithms to try and predict the future. This is done in every industry so why are you surprised? Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever? Seriously, are you that naive? Apple has had leads in the past and squandered them before so WAKE UP.
NPD's numbers on smartphones have been shown to be garbage, so their tablet projections are likely to be the same. For one thing, the "market share" they show for 2011 seems to be based on shipments, not sales that weren't returned. The iOS 95% share of current browsing activity is likely to be a more accurate gauge of current real market share. The Android numbers and projections don't have any basis in reality, And the "Windows RT" numbers are simply fantasy at this point.
Will Apple maintain a real 95% of market share? Perhaps not, but the only reason that Android has any traction in smartphones is because of carriers pushing it as heavily as they can. Carriers aren't, and aren't going to be, a major force in the tablet market and Android, as a consequence, isn't likely to gain any significant traction there. "Windows RT" is vaporware at this point, so no predictions, even mine, can be meaningful there. But, given Microsoft's apparent inability to attract customers outside it's Windows PC monopoly, there's no reason to expect them to be wildly successful.
"“So far in this relatively young product category, the tablet PC market has been dominated by Apple and has tended to include a number of competing products that are similarly configured to the iPad,” said NPD DisplaySearch Senior Analyst Richard Shim. 'However, as the market matures and competitors become better attuned to consumer preferences and find opportunities to break new ground, we expect the landscape to change dramatically, giving consumers more choices, which will drive demand for more devices.'"
"... as the market matures ..." - just like the audio market matured and the Zune and Sony swiped huge market share from iPods and iTunes.
"... and competitors become better attuned to consumer preferences ..." - wishful thinking.
"... find opportunities to break new ground ..." - if Apple doesn't get there before them.
"... dramatically ..." - where have we heard that one before?
"... giving consumers more choices, which will drive demand for more devices ...” - since when do more bad choices drive demand?
This forecast rests on nothing more than one analyst's puffery, unsupported by any hard evidence.
I think you're wrong. The forecast relies on decent marketing.
With the iPod, there just aren't that many options. How many features do you need in a portable mp3 player? With the iTunes ecosystem overriding any demand for new features, it's not surprising that one product family dominates, especially on a $200 product.
With tablets, the needs and features are much, much more diverse. Some people want simple e-readers. Others only want to access widgets occasionally. Some want to play simple games. Some want more complex games. Some use them for business (presentations, etc). Some use them to play movies remotely or connected to their TV. Some watch TV on the tablet. Some are willing to pay for a full-featured device, others want only the cheapest product that will do just the minimum activities that they desire. Unless Apple were to decide to release an entire family of iPads (all the way from sub-$100 e-readers up to the current high end), it is unlikely that they will continue their massive market share. Just the release of the new Kindle Fire (as well as the continued success of earlier Kindles and Nooks)showed that. There's a place in the market for a product at the low end that Apple has shown no desire to participate in.
To a large extent, the tablet market is much closer to the PC market in diversification potential than to the MP3 player market. There's much more room for differentiation of features and abilities and price than there is with an MP3 player. So if competitors have managed to find niches to obtain 20% of the MP3 player market, it would not surprise me in the least for competitors to find niches that will add up to 50% of the tablet market. The more I think about it, that number sounds about right - in fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Apple has even less than 50% in 5 years. As usual, though, it will be the most desirable and profitable 50% since Apple generally doesn't bottom feed.
They use existing sales trends, interview stores for buying trends across the various products, then run algorithms to try and predict the future. This is done in every industry so why are you surprised? Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever? Seriously, are you that naive? Apple has had leads in the past and squandered them before so WAKE UP.
You seem to have slept through the last few years of similar studies to believe this. These kind of predictions have been going on since iPad came out yet the evidence shows the only thing the iPad clones 'eat' is themselves.
By 2018 the population of the civilized world will be so obese that they will be unable to get off the couch so mobile devices will become irrelevant which is why Apple will come out with Siri controlled large screen TV. See anyone can be an analyst.
If you already have a full featured iPad, it is entirely reasonable to buy a cheap limited tablet just for kids to read books or watch movies while traveling, for example.
Looking over the chart, if the "researchers" are correct, and Apple falls to 50% of tablet sales, they (Apple) are still the #1 in market share, and in installed base.
They use existing sales trends, interview stores for buying trends across the various products, then run algorithms to try and predict the future. This is done in every industry so why are you surprised? Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever? Seriously, are you that naive? Apple has had leads in the past and squandered them before so WAKE UP.
So why is it that most analysts, in predicting Apple future market share, decide to forecast the exact opposite of what the sales trends and buying trends show us in actual numbers?
And what leads has squandered in the past since Steve Jobs rejoined the company?
So why is it that most analysts, in predicting Apple future market share, decide to forecast the exact opposite of what the sales trends and buying trends show us in actual numbers?
And what leads has squandered in the past since Steve Jobs rejoined the company?
When MS hit the top of the heap in the 90s I don't recall any analysts saying that MS will soon fall because the only way place to go now is down. This is prediction that Apple will start losing is an Apple related phenomenon that covers two aspects of irrational thinking.
1) I think too many people were so set on the fact that Apple was going to die that they can't fathom that Apple has pulled itself up and has become the world's largest company and dominates profits in all major branches — handset, tablet, PC and PMP are all dominated by Apple — of their business in which they are the technological leaders in innovation. They think Apple's success is just a fluke which will be corrected soon.
2) They only understand marketshare and not profit share as a measure of success. They don't see that Apple makes more PC profits than anyone else in the world they only look at how many PC units are being sold and truly see a $200 PC equaling a $2000 PC in terms of what it means to a company. Or worse, they take Apple's HW sales and then compare it to the OS of a company that licenses their OS to any and all HW vendors. Why people can even imaging that makes sense boggles the mind.
Perhaps it's kind of like The Highlander (1986). After MacLeod was killed and then came back to life the community that loved him could no longer accept him because their ignorance and fear could not grapple with the idea that he had come back from the dead. They couldn't see that he was the same person they cared about or that they were stronger and better for his existence in their community. They were only comforted by there outmoded concepts of the world.
When MS hit the top of the heap in the 90s I don't recall any analysts saying that MS will soon fall because the only way place to go now is down. This is prediction that Apple will start losing is an Apple related phenomenon that covers two aspects of irrational thinking.
Not necessarily. There's a huge difference.
Microsoft's Windows product family was able to cover almost the entire market. There was no significant niche that Windows didn't work for - at some level. Furthermore, there is a HUGE network effect with operating systems that MS took advantage of.
The iPad is different in two ways:
1. It's a hardware product and can not cover the entire market. There are already signs that there are niches that the iPad doesn't cover. The super-cheap e-reader, for example. Or the 7" tablet. Or the 5" tablet.
2. The network effect is nowhere near as strong as Microsoft had. If you remember those days, it was very difficult to use a Mac in a Windows network and Mac users often had to use extra efforts to coexist. With the iPad, that's not really an issue. If you have a movie or an MP3 player or a Powerpoint file, you can use it on any player.
But with a brand new product, outside of the people designing it who are allowed to see it, the only outside opinions I would imagine Apple receiving are those from the families they send on vacation with the product to get those great demo shots they always have.
Microsoft's Windows product family was able to cover almost the entire market. There was no significant niche that Windows didn't work for - at some level. Furthermore, there is a HUGE network effect with operating systems that MS took advantage of.
The iPad is different in two ways:
1. It's a hardware product and can not cover the entire market. There are already signs that there are niches that the iPad doesn't cover. The super-cheap e-reader, for example. Or the 7" tablet. Or the 5" tablet.
2. The network effect is nowhere near as strong as Microsoft had. If you remember those days, it was very difficult to use a Mac in a Windows network and Mac users often had to use extra efforts to coexist. With the iPad, that's not really an issue. If you have a movie or an MP3 player or a Powerpoint file, you can use it on any player.
None of that explains why MS and others are seen as only being able get bigger and more successful while constantly failing at entering new markets and Apple is seen to be always on the brink of their "lucky streak" collapsing.
Note that when people review non-Apple products in an Apple market it's done on a curve. Why is this? Does the reviewer think they sound more balanced by not being fair?
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apfeltosh
They use existing sales trends, interview stores for buying trends across the various products, then run algorithms to try and predict the future. This is done in every industry so why are you surprised? Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever? Seriously, are you that naive? Apple has had leads in the past and squandered them before so WAKE UP.
Wow, a RIM shill. I've never seen one of those before. Still, give it a few more months and they'll be redundant. Hey, try HTC next, their market share is on the slide too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by diplication
I'm so surprised that they can predict a trend five years into the future, on a product category that was effectively created a little more than two years ago. There is not enough history to be able to predict with any accuracy that far ahead. In fact considering what Apple did with a somewhat similar product category - personal music players - I believe you could predict just the opposite.
It's really amazing that people are getting worked up over the fact that someone is offering a 5 year projection. That's very standard in business and most large businesses have market projections that go out 5 years or more - as do market research firms. Why is everyone surprised that there's a 5 year projection?
If you're going to criticize this projection, you can instead criticize the assumptions or methodology - but you'd have to read the report to see that. They may have made reasonable assumptions and used decent methodology or they may not. But without knowing the details of how they arrived at their figures, any criticism is pointless.
Based on my own marketing experience and the assumptions I can make, Apple dropping to 50% in 5 years would not surprise me in the least. It is one thing to maintain 80% share in a $200 device like the iPod. When you get into a device that's approaching $1,000 including accessories at the high end, there's a lot more room for differentiation. I fully expect that there will be a number of cheap tablets of various sizes at the low end where Apple doesn't even attempt to compete and it wouldn't surprise me for the low end market to eventually reach 50% as people start accumulating 2 or 3 tablets in the home. If you already have a full featured iPad, it is entirely reasonable to buy a cheap limited tablet just for kids to read books or watch movies while traveling, for example.
Who pays for NPD's research?
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal
Who comes up with sh!t??!! I mean really, you can predict 5 years into the future??!! Predict me the next lotto numbers.
Assuming Apple stops all innovation from this point forward, then that might be the case.
The same kinds of idiots predicted that the iPad would only have some 40% of market share by 2011...
"“So far in this relatively young product category, the tablet PC market has been dominated by Apple and has tended to include a number of competing products that are similarly configured to the iPad,” said NPD DisplaySearch Senior Analyst Richard Shim. 'However, as the market matures and competitors become better attuned to consumer preferences and find opportunities to break new ground, we expect the landscape to change dramatically, giving consumers more choices, which will drive demand for more devices.'"
"... as the market matures ..." - just like the audio market matured and the Zune and Sony swiped huge market share from iPods and iTunes.
"... and competitors become better attuned to consumer preferences ..." - wishful thinking.
"... find opportunities to break new ground ..." - if Apple doesn't get there before them.
"... dramatically ..." - where have we heard that one before?
"... giving consumers more choices, which will drive demand for more devices ...” - since when do more bad choices drive demand?
This forecast rests on nothing more than one analyst's puffery, unsupported by any hard evidence.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apfeltosh
They use existing sales trends, interview stores for buying trends across the various products, then run algorithms to try and predict the future. This is done in every industry so why are you surprised? Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever? Seriously, are you that naive? Apple has had leads in the past and squandered them before so WAKE UP.
NPD's numbers on smartphones have been shown to be garbage, so their tablet projections are likely to be the same. For one thing, the "market share" they show for 2011 seems to be based on shipments, not sales that weren't returned. The iOS 95% share of current browsing activity is likely to be a more accurate gauge of current real market share. The Android numbers and projections don't have any basis in reality, And the "Windows RT" numbers are simply fantasy at this point.
Will Apple maintain a real 95% of market share? Perhaps not, but the only reason that Android has any traction in smartphones is because of carriers pushing it as heavily as they can. Carriers aren't, and aren't going to be, a major force in the tablet market and Android, as a consequence, isn't likely to gain any significant traction there. "Windows RT" is vaporware at this point, so no predictions, even mine, can be meaningful there. But, given Microsoft's apparent inability to attract customers outside it's Windows PC monopoly, there's no reason to expect them to be wildly successful.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kibitzer
Here's the nugget of this whole article:
"“So far in this relatively young product category, the tablet PC market has been dominated by Apple and has tended to include a number of competing products that are similarly configured to the iPad,” said NPD DisplaySearch Senior Analyst Richard Shim. 'However, as the market matures and competitors become better attuned to consumer preferences and find opportunities to break new ground, we expect the landscape to change dramatically, giving consumers more choices, which will drive demand for more devices.'"
"... as the market matures ..." - just like the audio market matured and the Zune and Sony swiped huge market share from iPods and iTunes.
"... and competitors become better attuned to consumer preferences ..." - wishful thinking.
"... find opportunities to break new ground ..." - if Apple doesn't get there before them.
"... dramatically ..." - where have we heard that one before?
"... giving consumers more choices, which will drive demand for more devices ...” - since when do more bad choices drive demand?
This forecast rests on nothing more than one analyst's puffery, unsupported by any hard evidence.
I think you're wrong. The forecast relies on decent marketing.
With the iPod, there just aren't that many options. How many features do you need in a portable mp3 player? With the iTunes ecosystem overriding any demand for new features, it's not surprising that one product family dominates, especially on a $200 product.
With tablets, the needs and features are much, much more diverse. Some people want simple e-readers. Others only want to access widgets occasionally. Some want to play simple games. Some want more complex games. Some use them for business (presentations, etc). Some use them to play movies remotely or connected to their TV. Some watch TV on the tablet. Some are willing to pay for a full-featured device, others want only the cheapest product that will do just the minimum activities that they desire. Unless Apple were to decide to release an entire family of iPads (all the way from sub-$100 e-readers up to the current high end), it is unlikely that they will continue their massive market share. Just the release of the new Kindle Fire (as well as the continued success of earlier Kindles and Nooks)showed that. There's a place in the market for a product at the low end that Apple has shown no desire to participate in.
To a large extent, the tablet market is much closer to the PC market in diversification potential than to the MP3 player market. There's much more room for differentiation of features and abilities and price than there is with an MP3 player. So if competitors have managed to find niches to obtain 20% of the MP3 player market, it would not surprise me in the least for competitors to find niches that will add up to 50% of the tablet market. The more I think about it, that number sounds about right - in fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Apple has even less than 50% in 5 years. As usual, though, it will be the most desirable and profitable 50% since Apple generally doesn't bottom feed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apfeltosh
They use existing sales trends, interview stores for buying trends across the various products, then run algorithms to try and predict the future. This is done in every industry so why are you surprised? Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever? Seriously, are you that naive? Apple has had leads in the past and squandered them before so WAKE UP.
You seem to have slept through the last few years of similar studies to believe this. These kind of predictions have been going on since iPad came out yet the evidence shows the only thing the iPad clones 'eat' is themselves.
Quote:
Originally Posted by waybacmac
Market share, shmarket mare. Remember this...?
Apple now earning 73% of global mobile profits with just 8.8% unit share
...or as Apple E. Newman sez: What? Me worried?
Thrown in 95% of tablet web traffic ... /smile
By 2018 the population of the civilized world will be so obese that they will be unable to get off the couch so mobile devices will become irrelevant which is why Apple will come out with Siri controlled large screen TV. See anyone can be an analyst.
Because Apple cannot get much more of market share, it can ONLY go lower (even if all the alternatives are crap)
The majority of people will put up with and accept mediocrity.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
If you already have a full featured iPad, it is entirely reasonable to buy a cheap limited tablet just for kids to read books or watch movies while traveling, for example.
That's what you do with your old iPad!
Looking over the chart, if the "researchers" are correct, and Apple falls to 50% of tablet sales, they (Apple) are still the #1 in market share, and in installed base.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apfeltosh
They use existing sales trends, interview stores for buying trends across the various products, then run algorithms to try and predict the future. This is done in every industry so why are you surprised? Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever? Seriously, are you that naive? Apple has had leads in the past and squandered them before so WAKE UP.
So why is it that most analysts, in predicting Apple future market share, decide to forecast the exact opposite of what the sales trends and buying trends show us in actual numbers?
And what leads has squandered in the past since Steve Jobs rejoined the company?
When MS hit the top of the heap in the 90s I don't recall any analysts saying that MS will soon fall because the only way place to go now is down. This is prediction that Apple will start losing is an Apple related phenomenon that covers two aspects of irrational thinking.
2) They only understand marketshare and not profit share as a measure of success. They don't see that Apple makes more PC profits than anyone else in the world they only look at how many PC units are being sold and truly see a $200 PC equaling a $2000 PC in terms of what it means to a company. Or worse, they take Apple's HW sales and then compare it to the OS of a company that licenses their OS to any and all HW vendors. Why people can even imaging that makes sense boggles the mind.
Perhaps it's kind of like The Highlander (1986). After MacLeod was killed and then came back to life the community that loved him could no longer accept him because their ignorance and fear could not grapple with the idea that he had come back from the dead. They couldn't see that he was the same person they cared about or that they were stronger and better for his existence in their community. They were only comforted by there outmoded concepts of the world.
Apple does not perform any market research.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
When MS hit the top of the heap in the 90s I don't recall any analysts saying that MS will soon fall because the only way place to go now is down. This is prediction that Apple will start losing is an Apple related phenomenon that covers two aspects of irrational thinking.
Not necessarily. There's a huge difference.
Microsoft's Windows product family was able to cover almost the entire market. There was no significant niche that Windows didn't work for - at some level. Furthermore, there is a HUGE network effect with operating systems that MS took advantage of.
The iPad is different in two ways:
1. It's a hardware product and can not cover the entire market. There are already signs that there are niches that the iPad doesn't cover. The super-cheap e-reader, for example. Or the 7" tablet. Or the 5" tablet.
2. The network effect is nowhere near as strong as Microsoft had. If you remember those days, it was very difficult to use a Mac in a Windows network and Mac users often had to use extra efforts to coexist. With the iPad, that's not really an issue. If you have a movie or an MP3 player or a Powerpoint file, you can use it on any player.
I doubt that very much.
While it's true that Jobs said that market research is of limited validity, I'd be shocked if they don't do some anyway.
Quote:
Originally Posted by umrk_lab
Apple does not perform any market research.
That's only sort of true.
But with a brand new product, outside of the people designing it who are allowed to see it, the only outside opinions I would imagine Apple receiving are those from the families they send on vacation with the product to get those great demo shots they always have.
None of that explains why MS and others are seen as only being able get bigger and more successful while constantly failing at entering new markets and Apple is seen to be always on the brink of their "lucky streak" collapsing.
Note that when people review non-Apple products in an Apple market it's done on a curve. Why is this? Does the reviewer think they sound more balanced by not being fair?