IDC projects Windows Phone to surpass Apple's iPhone by 2016

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Market analysts at IDC estimate that the share of handsets running Microsoft's Windows Phone will grow to take nearly 20 percent of the market by 2016 at the expense of Apple's iOS and Google's Android.

Results from the firm's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker released on Wednesday point to a marked five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46.2 percent between 2012 and 2016 for the Windows Phone platform citing Microsoft hardware partner Nokia's growing strength in emerging markets.

Although it currently only owns a 5.2 percent market share, less than RIM's BlackBerry, Windows Phone is slated to disrupt the mobile space to become one of the three main smartphone platforms beside Android and iOS. Microsoft's platform is forecast to have a 19.2 percent share of the market by the end of 2016.

"The mobile phone user transition from feature phones to smartphones will continue in a gradual but unabated fashion," said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Smartphone growth, however, will increasingly be driven by a triumvirate of smartphone operating systems, namely Android, iOS and Windows Phone 7."

While Android is expected to continue its domination through 2016 with 52.9 percent of the market, the OS will grow only 9.5 percent as the worldwide wireless market expands further into developing areas like China and India. Google's mobile platform, which will become increasingly dependent on Samsung device sales, is forecast to peak in 2012 as shipments begin to cool.

IDC
Source: IDC


The South Korean electronics maker is already the world's largest mobile phone maker and recently overtook Apple in smartphone shipments giving it a dominating presence in the wireless market. As it stands Samsung relies on Android to power its handsets but it may be looking into creating a new operating system as it was announced on Tuesday that the company paid a $500,000 fee to become a Linux Foundation board member. Although only speculation, the company could potentially use its significant coffers to further develop and refine the Tizen mobile OS in a slow move away from an increasingly fragmented Android.

IDC notes that Apple's installed customer base allows little room for growth and estimates that demand for the iPhone will slow in the next five years with sales mainly driven by replacement cycles. The momentum seen by the iPhone 4S in 2012 will result in overall shipment growth but a small decline in market share is expected. By the end of 2016 Apple is seen as having a 19 percent share of the overall smartphone market.

Chart: Worldwide Top 5 Smartphone OS Market Share Forecast, 1Q 2012Description: Tags: Author: IDCcharts powered by iCharts


"Underpinning the smartphone market is the constantly shifting OS landscape," said IDC Mobile Phone Technology and Trends Senior Research Analyst Ramon Llamas. "Android will maintain leadership throughout our forecast, while others will gain more mobile operator partnerships (Apple) or currently find themselves in the midst of a major transition (BlackBerry and Windows Phone/Windows Mobile). What remains to be seen is how these different operating systems ? as well as others ? will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and encourage replacements."

Beyond the top three platforms, RIM's BlackBerry will surprisingly see relevance as the emerging market exhibits demand for cheap messaging devices. The Waterloo, Ontario-based company will have a CAGR higher than iOS and is projected to maintain a nearly 6 percent share of the market. It is no certainty that RIM can stay alive long enough to benefit from developing nations, however, as corporate turmoil and suffering sales have brought the once mighty telecom to the edge of irrelevance.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 101
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,330member
    IDC were predicting Symbian to do this two years ago. Basically they think Nokia has a brand and people follow that brand regardless of the software. This is ludicrous, Nokia had disappeared in Europe for instance. Apple can upset this cart by having cheap off contract phones.
  • Reply 2 of 101
    just_mejust_me Posts: 590member
    LoL .
  • Reply 3 of 101
    deegee48deegee48 Posts: 66member
    Yeah, right! There'll probably be NO Windows Phone by 2016! That's a prediction that makes more sense!
    bageljoey
  • Reply 4 of 101
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,330member
    Just sticking with Nokia, their business is in free fall.

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-11/nokia-sales-slump-puts-pressure-on-elop-to-consider-split.html

    And Microsoft has no brand in mobile and is entering a space with no real apps. IDC talks only about distribution networks, didn't matter a damn to Nokia in Europe.

    The Windows phone is making no real inroads anywhere. So useless are IDCs predictions that even Nokia didn't believe the Symbian continuing to be dominant story and abandoned the platform.

    And the growth of 9.5% per year. The iPhone is growing at 100% per year.

    The pent up demand in these countries is for iPhone's - Android is already there. A cheap off contract phone there and windows is dead.
  • Reply 5 of 101
    mdriftmeyermdriftmeyer Posts: 7,319member


    IDC has been taking paid statements (bribes) from Microsoft for decades.


     


    Get a new trick, MS. It's dead.

     

  • Reply 6 of 101
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,745member


    LMAO


     


    By then the entire WP7 project is more likely to have been liquidated. 

  • Reply 7 of 101
    negafoxnegafox Posts: 480member


    Blackberry will have a 5.9% market share in 2016? I will be surprised if they are even around at the point.

  • Reply 8 of 101


    The biggest problem I see with Microsoft's new marketing strategy is that they have completely ditched what ever individuality they had, to be completely obsessed with Apple. The new Microsoft way is very unhealthy indeed and they seem to be ignoring their existing user base. 


     


    No matter what Microsoft does, they can never be "cool" like Apple. Microsoft represents a business office brand and by chance became associated with gamers & consumers,due to its open PC architecture, that enables graphics cards to be added in to empty slots. But Microsoft has never been cool, it has generally been a broken product and no matter hard they try they just have to much baggage. 


     


    No one wants Windows phone and I see that in the foreseeable future, no matter how many analysts they bribe.

  • Reply 9 of 101


    The biggest problem I see with Microsoft's new marketing strategy is that they have completely ditched what ever individuality they had, to be completely obsessed with Apple. The new Microsoft way is very unhealthy indeed and they seem to be ignoring their existing user base. 


     


    No matter what Microsoft does, they can never be "cool" like Apple. Microsoft represents an odd business office brand and by chance became associated with gamers & consumers, due to its open PC architecture, that enables graphics cards, to be added in to empty slots. But Microsoft has never been cool, it has generally been a broken product and no matter how hard they try, they just have to much baggage. 


     


    No one wants Windows phones and I see that in the foreseeable future, no matter how many analysts they bribe. 


     


    Metro is ugly; it is too minimal and dummy looking, and tries too hard to be a fisher price toy. Also it is weirdly tacked on to an existing desktop OS which causes a major disturbance in brain patterns!


     


    NOTE


     


    It is funny to see so many flyers in my letterbox from PC Tech Sole Traders offering me $80 p/h to fix my PC from viruses and registry problems etc. Computers shouldn't be full of malware and problems they should just work, my Atari 800 never crashed once.

  • Reply 10 of 101
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,330member
    I don't think IDC have ever predicted that either android or iOS would be where they are today, their report for 2012 no doubt has Symbian dominating. They then never mention their past massive inaccuracies, and trend iOS and Android down on the same illogical methodology which made their predictions for now such bollocks. The question I have is can people sue?
  • Reply 11 of 101
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    asdasd wrote: »
    I don't think IDC have ever predicted that either android or iOS would be where they are today, their report for 2012 no doubt has Symbian dominating. They then never mention their past massive inaccuracies, and trend iOS and Android down on the same illogical methodology which made their predictions for now such bollocks. The question I have is can people sue?

    I seem to recall they've always been heavy on Symbian and Windows.
  • Reply 12 of 101
    negafoxnegafox Posts: 480member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by theskivvys View Post


    No matter what Microsoft does, they can never be "cool" like Apple. Microsoft represents a business office brand and by chance became associated with gamers & consumers,due to its open PC architecture, that enables graphics cards to be added in to empty slots. But Microsoft has never been cool, it has generally been a broken product and no matter hard they try they just have to much baggage. 



    The history and rivalry between Direct3D and OpenGL in the mid-90s says differ.

  • Reply 13 of 101
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    I wish that Microsoft would put work into Windows Phone 7 to make it even remotely plausible this could be the case.


     


    But all this says in reality is, "never listen to me again; I'm a hack".

  • Reply 14 of 101
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,383member


    Apple has yet to publish their 2012 numbers yet so their projections are already suspicious with regards to the 2012 numbers.  We'll have to wait until Jan/Feb to see the REAL 2012 numbers.  THEN they have to make predictions.

  • Reply 15 of 101
    mj webmj web Posts: 918member


    Windows 8 looks like it was designed by a 3-year old and this prediction sounds like it was made by a 3-year old. 

  • Reply 16 of 101
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,383member


    Also, are these numbers based on entire installed base OR shipments for the respective years.  Microsoft has a LOT of catching up first.

  • Reply 17 of 101
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 1,961member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post



    IDC were predicting Symbian to do this two years ago. Basically they think Nokia has a brand and people follow that brand regardless of the software. This is ludicrous, Nokia had disappeared in Europe for instance. Apple can upset this cart by having cheap off contract phones.


    Yeah, I think this nails it. 


     


    Really bizarre. 

  • Reply 18 of 101
    myapplelovemyapplelove Posts: 1,515member


    there are many, many variables at play to make an informed prediction, but there is a very fair chance windows phones will match ios's market share in 4 years, of course profits is another issue ;). I think it's the apple bias here that won't allow people to believe otherwise.

  • Reply 19 of 101
    bullheadbullhead Posts: 493member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Negafox View Post


    The history and rivalry between Direct3D and OpenGL in the mid-90s says differ.



     


    not following. can you elaborate?

  • Reply 20 of 101
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,383member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post


    Windows 8 looks like it was designed by a 3-year old and this prediction sounds like it was made by a 3-year old. 



    It wouldn't surprise me if the person that made the calculations is a Windows user, therefore based on these assumptions. Windows 8 looks like it was designed by a 3 year old FOR a 3 year old so they can make predictions that are in line with 3 year olds.

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