Brilliant. They are predicting Blackberry will outgrow iOS even.. Given that BlackBerry is in a death spiral, the only growth they can get is from a shrinking segment of a growing market.
This ranks right up there with some of the most idiotic predictions ever. What did they use for data to produce the table? LOL someone there probably said: just make up some numbers
This time it was 2015. Next year it will be 2017. Last year Apple was going to be even lower in market share
According to Gartner, Apple’s iOS will be the one to do so, growing from a 16 percent market share in 2010 to just 17 percent in 2015.
And here we are at 20%, or so. So now they have to drop Apple back to 19% to make room for the "inevitable" 20% for MS. In that report they predicted android growing to 40%, but that was at a time of enormous android growth, and they were anticipating a massive slow down in Anroid and iOS growth. Which never materialises. Android is ahead of that now, so it has to drop back in market share to make room for the blond eyed boys at MS.
The comments are cynical. One guy says, on Android
" And they said in the 2010 report that it [ Android] would reach *less* than 30% in 2014, but even then it will be behind Symbian, which would've continued to have 31% of the market."
Why is anybody taking them seriously? They have got nothing right in the last 4 years.
I don't doubt Windows phones will see some growth but that is only because their numbers are so low at the moment. I can see Blackberry continuing to bleed and they will pick up some from them as well as dissatisfied Android customers. I also think if Samsung or HTC made a high end Windows phone it might gain customers. But to say it will take the lead from Apple or even steal many iPhone customers is pretty ridiculous.
I wish that Microsoft would put work into Windows Phone 7 to make it even remotely plausible this could be the case.
But all this says in reality is, "never listen to me again; I'm a hack".
It's not the phone. It's the ecosystem. WP7 is pretty nice. But poor app selection. And the native services (everything on Bing) pretty much sucks outside the USA. That's why Android is doing so well.
Nokia might help. Nokia's services (Nokia Drive, Nokia Transport for example) do make up for WP7's shortfalls. The question though is whether it's too little too late now.
It wouldn't surprise me if the person that made the calculations is a Windows user, therefore based on these assumptions. Windows 8 looks like it was designed by a 3 year old FOR a 3 year old so they can make predictions that are in line with 3 year olds.
NO, i think the person who said Window 8 looks like it was designed by a 3 year old was right. He probably is a current Windows user using Windows XP or Windows 7 and sees how stupid playing with blocks will be in the next version of Windows. It is going to be worse than Vista. It will be a total flop and they will be forced to add back the start menu or loose all their business customers. Businesses will not put up with a full screen of stupid colored blocks to get around in Windows.
Windows 8 inspired by a 3 year old stacking up his blocks. But no 3 year old would be able to use it and businesses will shun it.
News Flash: Microsoft returns to its roots with Windows 8, they go back to Kindergarten and start stacking colored Blocks. Come join them on the floor and lets play blocks.
If the IDC had predicted the result of World War II, they would have predicted Mexico defeating the Nazi's.
If the IDC would have predicted the winners of the last Super Bowl, they would have listed the LA Lakers.
I wish every name of every analyst that predicts something this idiotic was listed publically, so everyone could know to never, ever take any advice they give.
I wish every name of every analyst that predicts something this idiotic was listed publically, so everyone could know to never, ever take any advice they give.
I wish that all analysts and sites that make predictions would be forced to account for their transgressions before they were allowed to make another prediction.
Force them to release an article where they explicitly state, "I was wrong in my prediction of ________________. This is why I was wrong: _________________." etc.
My prediction, which I have been making since last year, is that on upper end Smartphones in 2016 or thereabouts, iOS will be #1 and Windows Phone (WP) will be #2. Android will be a small percentage. On low end Smartphones, the low powered, cheap with contract ones, Android will come in #1 there. This will replace the current "feature phone" market.
Rational:
There is no unified Android experience. Samsung, Motorola, HTC, etc are all a different user experience (UX). This will turn off repeat buyers of Android phones. They are not developing brand loyalty to Android as there is no single Android. This UX fragmentation will cause (and is already causing) consumer disappointment with Android.
However, the so-called feature phone market is being replaced by low end Android phones that offer, out of the box, simple apps for texting, internet, games, calendar, etc. They are the new feature phone. Android is good for that market as it is a cheap way for feature phone makers to offer these simple services on their phones and they can use low end POS phone components to make them. And lots of consumers just want a phone that will provide voice, texting, simple internet browser, maybe a calendar and other widgets, and a couple of games.
We are already seeing that Android users buy FAR LESS apps than iOS users. A large percentage of the Android activations are already these low end feature phone replacement phones, not high end smart phones. That will just become more so the case and the UX fragmentation will weaken Android in the high end. Both iOS and WP avoid the UX problems, provide a much more streamlined and consistent experience that extends beyond their first phone -- an ongoing UX. And once they invest in the so-called "eco-system" of their phone, whether iOS or WP, they are much more likely to stay with the platform for the long haul. As has been seen with the low rate of app buying by Android users, they are not buying in to their eco system as much and don't have that same attachment. WP is too early to say, but I am guessing that in the long run, you will have higher eco system buy-in amongst those who choose WP compared to Android.
Also a factor are the phone makers. They are all already hedging their bets keeping alternatives to Android alive. None of them want to be beholden to Google for their survival and they don't really trust Google. They have to pretend that they do, but they are all keeping escape routes open. And with the likelihood of the need to pay increased royalties to Apple, MS, and others over patent issues, the less-expensive part of Google is slowly fading as well.
By 2016 I see iOS as #1 in Smartphones, WP as #2. Low end Smartphones (what would be considered a Smartphone today) will be the new "feature phone" and I don't count those as Smartphones in 2016. Android will rule there. iOS (Apple using older models of iPhone for the low end of their offering) and WP will play a role here and will provide a path for these feature phone users to migrate to Smartphone users.
The chadbag has spoken! Mark my words and let's follow this up in 2016.
How about this: Apple will continue to increase its share as they roll out new devices and software. Android will stay even or maybe contract a little bit. It's hard to tell since there are a plethora of devices for clueless people to choose from (quality and fragmentation be damned), so Android will continue to be a big player for quite some time.
RIM will go the way of the dinosaur, and Win Phone 7 will no longer exist, because M$ will quickly replace it with Win 8 ("Windows everywhere"), which may only have a 50% chance of being successful. Nokia will be kicking around longer than RIM, but their chances aren't good. Were it not for their new sugar-daddy, they'd already be gone.
In the end, you'll have only 3 major players: Apple, Samsung, Google/Moto.
Welcome to the world of "paid PR posing as journalism or analysis"...
The moment I saw blackberry retaining most of their remaining 6% market share after four years, I knew they were just making stuff up here. I mean... Windows Phone overtaking iOS? In 4 years… How? That'll be some trick...
"Analysis"… bwa hahaaa!! More like Johnny Carson doing Carnac the Magnificent! :P
GS, your post of that 2010 chart just knocks it out of the park… IDC is seriously making things up. Pure hooey!
Quote:
Originally Posted by GS Turn
IDC one of the Nations most respected forcasters predicts the outlook for the Mobile market share for 2014.
SYMBIAN will lead, followed by ANDROID and then BLACKBERRY with WINDOWS almost surpassing iOS with 9.8%
Comments
Brilliant. They are predicting Blackberry will outgrow iOS even.. Given that BlackBerry is in a death spiral, the only growth they can get is from a shrinking segment of a growing market.
I spent some time finding out some older IDC predictions. Actually, this is what journalists and bloggers are supposed to do.
IDC forecasts (as of 2010):
http://www.techflash.com/seattle/2010/09/windows_phone_at_no_5_in_2014_right_behind_apple_idc_predicts.html
Same prediction with graphic:
http://redmondmag.com/articles/2010/09/09/smartphone-adoption-growing-faster-than-expected.aspx
And a bonus track:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/12/technology/blackberry_research_in_motion.fortune/index.htm
I hope those brilliant people at IDC put their retirement funds in Nokia and other Phone 7....
Anyone knows how much time Zune would need to overtake that iPod thing, according to IDC "http://www.marketresearch.com/IDC-v2477/Zune-HD-Right-Time-2474350/"
This is last years guess
http://techcrunch.com/2011/09/02/gartner-idc-windows-phone-to-steal-second-place-from-ios-by-2015/
This time it was 2015. Next year it will be 2017. Last year Apple was going to be even lower in market share
According to Gartner, Apple’s iOS will be the one to do so, growing from a 16 percent market share in 2010 to just 17 percent in 2015.
And here we are at 20%, or so. So now they have to drop Apple back to 19% to make room for the "inevitable" 20% for MS. In that report they predicted android growing to 40%, but that was at a time of enormous android growth, and they were anticipating a massive slow down in Anroid and iOS growth. Which never materialises. Android is ahead of that now, so it has to drop back in market share to make room for the blond eyed boys at MS.
The comments are cynical. One guy says, on Android
" And they said in the 2010 report that it [ Android] would reach *less* than 30% in 2014, but even then it will be behind Symbian, which would've continued to have 31% of the market."
Why is anybody taking them seriously? They have got nothing right in the last 4 years.
These are the same idiots who predicted the ZUNE would be a major player against the ipod. Consumers see Windows on anything other than a PC they run.
These are the same idiots who predicted the ZUNE would be a major player against the ipod. Consumers see Windows on anything other than a PC they run.
I don't doubt Windows phones will see some growth but that is only because their numbers are so low at the moment. I can see Blackberry continuing to bleed and they will pick up some from them as well as dissatisfied Android customers. I also think if Samsung or HTC made a high end Windows phone it might gain customers. But to say it will take the lead from Apple or even steal many iPhone customers is pretty ridiculous.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
I wish that Microsoft would put work into Windows Phone 7 to make it even remotely plausible this could be the case.
But all this says in reality is, "never listen to me again; I'm a hack".
It's not the phone. It's the ecosystem. WP7 is pretty nice. But poor app selection. And the native services (everything on Bing) pretty much sucks outside the USA. That's why Android is doing so well.
Nokia might help. Nokia's services (Nokia Drive, Nokia Transport for example) do make up for WP7's shortfalls. The question though is whether it's too little too late now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank
It wouldn't surprise me if the person that made the calculations is a Windows user, therefore based on these assumptions. Windows 8 looks like it was designed by a 3 year old FOR a 3 year old so they can make predictions that are in line with 3 year olds.
NO, i think the person who said Window 8 looks like it was designed by a 3 year old was right. He probably is a current Windows user using Windows XP or Windows 7 and sees how stupid playing with blocks will be in the next version of Windows. It is going to be worse than Vista. It will be a total flop and they will be forced to add back the start menu or loose all their business customers. Businesses will not put up with a full screen of stupid colored blocks to get around in Windows.
Windows 8 inspired by a 3 year old stacking up his blocks. But no 3 year old would be able to use it and businesses will shun it.
News Flash: Microsoft returns to its roots with Windows 8, they go back to Kindergarten and start stacking colored Blocks. Come join them on the floor and lets play blocks.
If the IDC would have predicted the winners of the last Super Bowl, they would have listed the LA Lakers.
I wish every name of every analyst that predicts something this idiotic was listed publically, so everyone could know to never, ever take any advice they give.
IDC one of the Nations most respected forcasters predicts the outlook for the Mobile market share for 2014.
SYMBIAN will lead, followed by ANDROID and then BLACKBERRY with WINDOWS almost surpassing iOS with 9.8%
Data released September 2010.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac.World
I wish every name of every analyst that predicts something this idiotic was listed publically, so everyone could know to never, ever take any advice they give.
I wish that all analysts and sites that make predictions would be forced to account for their transgressions before they were allowed to make another prediction.
Force them to release an article where they explicitly state, "I was wrong in my prediction of ________________. This is why I was wrong: _________________." etc.
My prediction, which I have been making since last year, is that on upper end Smartphones in 2016 or thereabouts, iOS will be #1 and Windows Phone (WP) will be #2. Android will be a small percentage. On low end Smartphones, the low powered, cheap with contract ones, Android will come in #1 there. This will replace the current "feature phone" market.
Rational:
There is no unified Android experience. Samsung, Motorola, HTC, etc are all a different user experience (UX). This will turn off repeat buyers of Android phones. They are not developing brand loyalty to Android as there is no single Android. This UX fragmentation will cause (and is already causing) consumer disappointment with Android.
However, the so-called feature phone market is being replaced by low end Android phones that offer, out of the box, simple apps for texting, internet, games, calendar, etc. They are the new feature phone. Android is good for that market as it is a cheap way for feature phone makers to offer these simple services on their phones and they can use low end POS phone components to make them. And lots of consumers just want a phone that will provide voice, texting, simple internet browser, maybe a calendar and other widgets, and a couple of games.
We are already seeing that Android users buy FAR LESS apps than iOS users. A large percentage of the Android activations are already these low end feature phone replacement phones, not high end smart phones. That will just become more so the case and the UX fragmentation will weaken Android in the high end. Both iOS and WP avoid the UX problems, provide a much more streamlined and consistent experience that extends beyond their first phone -- an ongoing UX. And once they invest in the so-called "eco-system" of their phone, whether iOS or WP, they are much more likely to stay with the platform for the long haul. As has been seen with the low rate of app buying by Android users, they are not buying in to their eco system as much and don't have that same attachment. WP is too early to say, but I am guessing that in the long run, you will have higher eco system buy-in amongst those who choose WP compared to Android.
Also a factor are the phone makers. They are all already hedging their bets keeping alternatives to Android alive. None of them want to be beholden to Google for their survival and they don't really trust Google. They have to pretend that they do, but they are all keeping escape routes open. And with the likelihood of the need to pay increased royalties to Apple, MS, and others over patent issues, the less-expensive part of Google is slowly fading as well.
By 2016 I see iOS as #1 in Smartphones, WP as #2. Low end Smartphones (what would be considered a Smartphone today) will be the new "feature phone" and I don't count those as Smartphones in 2016. Android will rule there. iOS (Apple using older models of iPhone for the low end of their offering) and WP will play a role here and will provide a path for these feature phone users to migrate to Smartphone users.
The chadbag has spoken!
Why is this IDC company even in business? You can't predict what will happen four years from now in the tech industry. STUPID!
Complete bunk.
How about this: Apple will continue to increase its share as they roll out new devices and software. Android will stay even or maybe contract a little bit. It's hard to tell since there are a plethora of devices for clueless people to choose from (quality and fragmentation be damned), so Android will continue to be a big player for quite some time.
RIM will go the way of the dinosaur, and Win Phone 7 will no longer exist, because M$ will quickly replace it with Win 8 ("Windows everywhere"), which may only have a 50% chance of being successful. Nokia will be kicking around longer than RIM, but their chances aren't good. Were it not for their new sugar-daddy, they'd already be gone.
In the end, you'll have only 3 major players: Apple, Samsung, Google/Moto.
IDC, lets hire them for our projections. Ha Ha
Yeah, "oops" again!
Welcome to the world of "paid PR posing as journalism or analysis"...
The moment I saw blackberry retaining most of their remaining 6% market share after four years, I knew they were just making stuff up here. I mean... Windows Phone overtaking iOS? In 4 years… How? That'll be some trick...
"Analysis"… bwa hahaaa!! More like Johnny Carson doing Carnac the Magnificent! :P
GS, your post of that 2010 chart just knocks it out of the park… IDC is seriously making things up. Pure hooey!
Quote:
Originally Posted by GS Turn
IDC one of the Nations most respected forcasters predicts the outlook for the Mobile market share for 2014.
SYMBIAN will lead, followed by ANDROID and then BLACKBERRY with WINDOWS almost surpassing iOS with 9.8%
Data released September 2010.