Apple to post fiscal Q4 miss on cannibalized Mac sales, analyst says
In a note to investors on Tuesday investment firm BMO Capital forecast Apple to post a significant miss for its fourth fiscal quarter of 2012 as Mac sales continue to be cannibalized by the company's popular iPad tablet line.
Despite raising sales estimates for both the iPhone and iPad, BMO analyst Keith Bachman said the just-ended June quarter and upcoming final fiscal quarter of 2012 will be "challenging" for Apple as the tech giant moves into a new product cycle, reports Barron's.
Apple could see a $5.5 billion miss from the $38.5 billion consensus for the company's fourth fiscal quarter ending in September if its third quarter performance is in line with the current $37.5 billion forecast, according to historical patterns and outlooks.
Bachman reiterated an "outperform" rating for AAPL, however, and bumped the stock's target price to $700 from $695 on higher iPhone sales for the ensuing six quarters. Including the fiscal third quarter that just ended, Bachman upped iPhone unit sale estimates for the next year and half by 1.5 million units and also raised his iPad sales estimate by 3.8 million units.
Apple's strong iDevice forecast was tempered by a lowered Mac sales estimate that is expected to drop 1.6 million units over the same six quarter period. Bachman dropped his Mac sales estimate from 18.65 million units to 18.22 million for 2012 and sees that decline carrying over into 2013 which slipped to 20.18 million from 21.38 million.
"Net, we are lowering our Mac forecast by 1.6 million units over the next six Qs," Bachman writes. "We think strong iPad demand is negatively affecting Mac sales, despite the recent MacBook refresh. For the next six Qs, we reduced our Mac sales by 40% of the increase in iPad sales."
Source: BMO Capital via Barron's
It was noted that investors are unlikely to overreact to the rare miss as Apple revenue is likely to rebound following the launch of a next-generation iPhone this fall.
"However, we think investors are well aware of the product cycle, and likely negative revision to near-term estimates," Bachman said. "Moreover, we think Apple shares will respond in a positive way to the pending launch of the new iPhone, as we look to year-end. If Apple is able to launch the new iPhone in the month of September, then actual unit shipments in the September Q will be less relevant, as management and investors will focus on the momentum of the new iPhone."
Despite raising sales estimates for both the iPhone and iPad, BMO analyst Keith Bachman said the just-ended June quarter and upcoming final fiscal quarter of 2012 will be "challenging" for Apple as the tech giant moves into a new product cycle, reports Barron's.
Apple could see a $5.5 billion miss from the $38.5 billion consensus for the company's fourth fiscal quarter ending in September if its third quarter performance is in line with the current $37.5 billion forecast, according to historical patterns and outlooks.
Bachman reiterated an "outperform" rating for AAPL, however, and bumped the stock's target price to $700 from $695 on higher iPhone sales for the ensuing six quarters. Including the fiscal third quarter that just ended, Bachman upped iPhone unit sale estimates for the next year and half by 1.5 million units and also raised his iPad sales estimate by 3.8 million units.
Apple's strong iDevice forecast was tempered by a lowered Mac sales estimate that is expected to drop 1.6 million units over the same six quarter period. Bachman dropped his Mac sales estimate from 18.65 million units to 18.22 million for 2012 and sees that decline carrying over into 2013 which slipped to 20.18 million from 21.38 million.
"Net, we are lowering our Mac forecast by 1.6 million units over the next six Qs," Bachman writes. "We think strong iPad demand is negatively affecting Mac sales, despite the recent MacBook refresh. For the next six Qs, we reduced our Mac sales by 40% of the increase in iPad sales."
Source: BMO Capital via Barron's
It was noted that investors are unlikely to overreact to the rare miss as Apple revenue is likely to rebound following the launch of a next-generation iPhone this fall.
"However, we think investors are well aware of the product cycle, and likely negative revision to near-term estimates," Bachman said. "Moreover, we think Apple shares will respond in a positive way to the pending launch of the new iPhone, as we look to year-end. If Apple is able to launch the new iPhone in the month of September, then actual unit shipments in the September Q will be less relevant, as management and investors will focus on the momentum of the new iPhone."
Comments
Erm, who cares! Mac's only make up a small fraction of the profits anyhow.
If Mac sales do happen to be down it will be because people were holding out, not because of cannibalization.
That title is a bit misleading... between "Apple to post miss" and"an analyst thinks that his previous analyse was f***d up and total bullshit and offers a brand new one, that is absolutely not bullshit this time".... there is a gap (no relation to fashionable blue jeans).
I don't believe this, the MBP Retina, as well as the recent refresh of their entire portable line should continue above industry growth in the Mac line.
Begin: Apple 3.0
Steve Jobs said, "Never be afraid to cannibalize yourself."
Besides, who is this "investment firm BMO Capital"? Never heard of them. What do they know?
Cannibalized by iPad sales? Or people waiting for new Macs at WWDC?
I'll wait as I ALWAYS do when Apple releases its quarterly results. Remember this?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/24/us-apple-idUSTRE80N2BQ20120124
This is why I'm considering a switch back to Windows. I think the Mac's days are numbered.
Future sales of Apple's TV, Digital SLR, and Sex Droid will definitely make up the difference.
Yep. You read that right.
Siri gets a body in 2012.
I didin't buy a new Mac because Apple hasn't released an updated Mac Pro!
Absolute fraudulent analysis. Mac sales have only grown, quarter over quarter since the release of all iOS devices.
Sweet! I'd be afraid to have relations with an MS Sex Droid for fear of viruses.
So… do we use Trojans to protect against trojans? I'm confused.
And what happens if she blue screens midway? I shudder to think.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
Sweet! I'd be afraid to have relations with an MS Sex Droid for fear of viruses.
Don't worry.
The MS Droid will be similar to their current system: scan and backup as required.
However, I don't know if the decision by Microsoft to include a stylus with it was...tasteful.
Quote:
Besides, who is this "investment firm BMO Capital"? Never heard of them. What do they know?
Perhaps you never have heard of them, and maybe their analysis is wrong. But this is a stupid statement. You're implying that because you've never heard of them they are ignorant nobodies.
Here's who they are:
Quote:
BMO Capital Markets is a leading, full-service North American financial services provider offering equity and debt underwriting, corporate lending and project financing, merger and acquisitions advisory services, securitization, treasury management, market risk management, debt and equity research and institutional sales and trading. BMO Capital Markets has 2,200 employees operating in 30 locations around the world, including 17 in North America.
BMO Capital Markets is a part of BMO Financial Group (NYSE, TSX: BMO), one of the largest diversified financial services providers in North America with US$532 billion total assets and more than 46,500 employees as of April 30, 2012.
Established in 1817 as Bank of Montreal, BMO Financial Group is a highly diversified North American financial services organization.
It's not like this is three guys in a garage spouting their analysis on the internet or something.
I'm cool with Trojans to protect against trojans. It's having to worms to protect against worms that grosses me out.
Is this intercourse consensual? [Yes] [No]
I just hope it has a power user option so I can say [Yes to all] ????
So buy one now.
Or wait for next year's update. Or the one after that. Or the one after that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Fix
I didin't buy a new Mac because Apple hasn't released an updated Mac Pro!
this and no imac either. kind of hard to do good mac sales when you don't update them. laptops are selling well, but ignoring an entire market of desktop user kind of dampens mac sales.