The reasons you defend MSs decisions are based on the same fallacies MS is making and has always made. You cling to the past. Case in point, you want USB, IR, and optical media on a tablet.
No, I don't want optical media. I said I wanted a card slot. It's be nice if you read what I wrote instead of responding to your imagination.
USB and IR? You bet I could use those. As could a significant portion of the market.
As for the rest, pfft. I dont' defend their decisions. I simply observe Apple is screwing up here with these poorly chosen new directions for IOS and OSX. Time will prove me right.
No, I don't want optical media. I said I wanted a card slot. It's be nice if you read what I wrote instead of responding to your imagination.
USB and IR? You bet I could use those. As could a significant portion of the market.
As for the rest, pfft. I dont' defend their decisions. I simply observe Apple is screwing up here with these poorly chosen new directions for IOS and OSX. Time will prove me right.
I didn't imagine anything. You state "optical" right in your first paragraph and don't try to say you meant "IR" because you state that previously in the same sentence. I didn't imagine anything and your rebuttal is week indicating you have no argument for my truisms. USB and IR are not needed by a significant number in the market. The fact that tens of millions (if you count iPhones, iPod Touches and iPads together it's hundreds of millions) of devices sold without any of these features then you see that they are not needed.
BTW. You never answered about your TV, VCR, gas mileage, stove, or floppy disks.
You are the minority. And that's okay. I'm sure they'll still let you get married. Unless you're in the gay minority too. Oh, oh! Or considering your attachment to the outdated you're still living in the fifties. Then you couldn't marry someone of a different race either. Man. Your life sucks dude. Come to the 21st century when you're ready. We're waiting for you. But you'll need to do an Erase & Install so your life works and is compatible in this century.
As mentioned, Jobs' analogy of cars and trucks makes the most sense.
Traditional PCs = pickups
Tablets/Smartphones = sedans
I suppose laptops, who although predate tablets actually seem like a tweener category between PCs and Tablets, are analogous to crossover vehicles, SUVs, etc.
At one point, everybody used trucks. Now they're mainly used in professional settings or for people who need to haul things around. While not replacing trucks, the center of focus for the average person has shifted to sedans, and their ilk. Why? They accomplish 95% of what the average person needs to do, while having the benefits of a better ride, better fuel economy, etc.
PCs/workstations/etc won't be replaced anytime soon. Professionals still need them, and prosumers may have one at home to do heavy lifting. But the industry's focus is shifting to the tablet, as it accomplishes 95% of what the average user wants to do: browse the web, shop online, bank online, check email, view photos, play games, and stay up to date with family and friends. For the average user, how often do they need the functionality of a PC? A tablet does the majority of what people want, and it presents a more portable form factor, a more enjoyable experience, and better battery life.
For me personally, I use a PC at work. I could never replace the functionality with a tablet; even if the processor was just as fast, the form factor is for portability, not serious work. But when I get home? I don't even have a PC at home. Just an iPad. And an iPhone. I haven't had a need for a PC at home for quite a while.
I imagine we're headed down a path where most people will be in a similar boat: a PC at work, a personal device (tablet, etc) at home. For some people, they might continue to have a PC at home, but it will outnumbered by personal devices; instead of the days when a home had 3-4 PCs at home, there will be perhaps 1 PC and 2-4 personal devices. Just like people may have a pickup truck at home for the occasional chore, but they drive around in a Camry most days.
exactly, but while a tablet can be used for 95% of the things most people need to do i would still prefer a traditional PC currently. for things like tabs....
And as for better battery life, that is generally true, a few computers have splice batteries that can give them crazy battery life.. As on my earlier post said, one laptop with splice battery + one replacing its cd slot theoretically gives it almost 20 hours of wifi surfing the web...
not that it matters, because tablets will (should) become the largest portion of the marketshare every year (not just after Apple's huge iPad penetration)!
However, the surface is the kind of tablet a "power user" would use.... for example on my jailbroken iPhone i typically have 20+ tabs open....
just to sum up my big overall point is that for the next 5-10 years PC+ makes sense. afterwards, once tablets are enough for everything for super power workstations, multimonitors and heavy gaming, and servers (herp derp, its my tablet server), etc, etc. Than i will say it is a post-(traditional) PC era....
...there is no inherent conflict between "just works" and "highly capable"
For instance, you think adding an IR port (so the tablet can talk to/at your stereo, tv, etc.) will make the tablet suddenly not "just work"?
You think adding a memory card slot will make it not "just work"?
You think that because a folder can have more than 16 apps in it, it'll stop working? Or that if you can drag one folder into another, you can't drag them back out? Or never drag them in at all?
You're not thinking at all.
However, yes, the competition will be doing all these things and more, and if Apple sticks to this "dumbed down" hardware path, they'll simply fall behind. So I predict that Apple will see the light, and not too long from now, either. And in the meantime, I'll just wait -- because I'm not buying an "upgrade" that isn't an upgrade.
'You think adding a memory card slot will make it not "just work"?'
Consider this: When you do such a simple thing as add a card slot to a tablet, this simplifieseverything...Right?
Wrong! It is just the opposite... it complicateseverything!
-- the User, the OS and the device need to keep track of where things are: on the device; on the presently-inserted memory card; on another memory card
-- how do you span 1 or more memory cards for a large file or set of related data?
-- there needs to be an index [app] and accessible file system [app] to allow access and movement among the internal SSD and the various memory cards
-- you need another device (likely a pc) to aggregate and manage the content of the various memory cards
-- what do you do when the desired file or app is not on the designated device?
-- to take advantage of the memory card slot, you must carry around a bunch of memory cards, put them in something, label them so you can tell what's on them
-- you need to develop a workflow so you know when to create them, merge them, back them up or erase them as necessary...
Just like the need for [the hassle of] external tapes and CDs killed the Walkman and other pmps, external storage, external memory cards would add levels of complexity to the mobile tablet.
There are special cases where external memory cards are useful -- ingesting video or pictures form a camera -- but even these are being replaced by WiFi and the could.
But for most users, an external memory card slot just adds unnecessary, and unwanted, hassle.
It makes all the difference in the world -- you don't need to gather your memory cards, determine which are needed (hopeful you are accurate), put them in something to carry along with you... Instead, you just grab your tablet and go...
It kinda' reminds me of packing up the toddler to visit friends in the winter time... You spend 15 minutes getting them dressed... then they have to go potty... undress, redress -- go visit your friends and spend another 15 minutes getting them undressed. After about an hour visit, it is time ro repeat the process for the return trip home.
The reasons you defend MSs decisions are based on the same fallacies MS is making and has always made. You cling to the past. Case in point, you want USB, IR, and optical media on a tablet.
Optical media is dead - that's a fact. No one is working on a successor to BlueRay and anything that tries to would fail. Burning disks or buying movies on disk is outdated and obsolete. Have you seen sales figures for optical media? It is quickly on its way out and I for one and many others don't lament it's death. Any view other than that is likely short-sighted.
IR is outdated. It's hardly used. Even my ceiling fan uses RF for its remote. IR is only good for remote controls and with the ubiquity of BlueTooth and WiFi there is no need for IR. one would surely never choose IR over BT or, especially, WiFi for data transmission. There is no point to IR for either a remote (must be line of site) or data transfer (can you say painfully slow?).
USB is not necessary for a tablet. One doesn't do anything with USB that they can't do over WiFi or BT. File transfer with a thumb drive? Why? You've already got your portable device in the tablet. Carrying around a thumb drive or hard drive in addition to that is assanine. USB mic? You have a dual purpose audio port that works with several third party headsets. Backup Drive? You have the cloud and backup to PC (which should have its own dedicated backup drive hense a double backup solution - triple if you count the cloud).
In reference to your file system argument, well, I'd like greater capacity per folder as well but it hasn't been a huge issue for the majority of users. Additionally the dismissal of the traditional folder system is welcome. Most users can't figure out where their résumé is saved to on their C drive to save their lives. It's pathetic, but true. Most users think their document is stored IN WORD. Not as an independent file. I know all this from my experience working with the public. So Apple's in app documents simply builds on the consumers expectations. The fact that the docs are stored on the cloud as well as locally as independent files is transparent so the user always knows where to go for their data. To the app that created it.
The iPad (and iPhone and iPod Touch, and Android devices for that matter) are disruptors. They are not continuations of the same OLD tired and dying technology that a minority of users are unwilling to give up or are blinded to the demise of their ubiquity. The iOS devices are a new breed ushering in an erra where we are liberated from dragging around a half dozen peripherals to support our bloated PCs (I use the term PC to describe both PCs and Macs in this context). The rest of the world is moving on and you're welcome to join the ride or stay behind. If you need IR, USB, and optical drives for the majority of what you do with a tablet then by all means stick with your legacy technology. No one is asking you to abandon it. Just don't expect the rest of us who have moved on to continue to cater to your needs because we will not. Like religion, political party, or favorite ice cream flavor the choice is yours. Just don't impose it on me.
On that note, how's your standard definition CRT TV, VCR, carburated engine, 3.5" floppy disk drive, and wood burning kettle stove working out for you?
Good grief. I am an Apple developer, and more than that, I've been developing software since the 1970's. It's no easier (or more difficult) to develop IOS apps than it is OSX, WIndows or Linux, for that matter. It's just (slightly) different. The cost of IOS apps is just a marketing strategy. And there are some that are quite expensive, too. As well to note that there are many inexpensive or free OSX, WIndows and LInux apps.
I really don't know where you people get these crazy ideas.
Fastest? No. There are faster computers out there than Apple makes; there are certainly some faster tablets, too. Lightest, yes, perhaps. And that's a big selling point, I agree. But it's not enough to keep them in front. The question every consumer ultimately asks is "what can this device do for me" and when APple comes up wanting in a comparison, that'll be the beginning of the market force that makes them adjust their strategy.
No, the consumer asks: Can I do what I want to do? They aren't assessing the device as much as they are defining their needs -- a very subtle, but important difference.
exactly, but while a tablet can be used for 95% of the things most people need to do i would still prefer a traditional PC currently. for things like tabs....
And as for better battery life, that is generally true, a few computers have splice batteries that can give them crazy battery life.. As on my earlier post said, one laptop with splice battery + one replacing its cd slot theoretically gives it almost 20 hours of wifi surfing the web...
not that it matters, because tablets will (should) become the largest portion of the marketshare every year (not just after Apple's huge iPad penetration)!
However, the surface is the kind of tablet a "power user" would use.... for example on my jailbroken iPhone i typically have 20+ tabs open....
just to sum up my big overall point is that for the next 5-10 years PC+ makes sense. afterwards, once tablets are enough for everything for super power workstations, multimonitors and heavy gaming, and servers (herp derp, its my tablet server), etc, etc. Than i will say it is a post-(traditional) PC era....
Tabs? Do you mean browser tabs or apps?
On my iPad Safari there 10 tabs displayed across the top... the last tab (if necessary) opens a drop down scrollable list of other recent tabs... I only had a total of 18, so I quickly added another 5 for a total of 23.
If you are referring to apps, I have about 22 in my iPad.s task bar.
As to your point about PC+ -- MS has promoted PC+ tablets for the last 10 years... and failed! The bulk of the population (consumers and professionals, alike) have moved on and are adopting the post-pc iPad concept.
To illustrate, here is a new $9.99 iPad app I discovered today... It is used by film and video directors, ADs, editors, producers to review dailies.
The site is hosted by Michael Cioni -- a very talented video/genius/everything guy. He was responsible for setting up the editing gear, workflow and procedures for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo. TGWTDT was shot in Europe (mostly Sweden) and the dailies were shipped to the US as podcasts.
One of the challenging aspects of this conversation is the conflating of hardware and software. Narrowing it down, I'd love to know what everyone thinks of the following question:
Regardless of hardware, activity and setting, are we seeing the beginning of the end of the familiar (and 30 year old) Mac/Windows user experience in favor of more gesture/voice-based UX's like iOS and Metro?
In other words, will our "trucks" eventually run an iOS variant instead of OS X?
On my iPad Safari there 10 tabs displayed across the top... the last tab (if necessary) opens a drop down scrollable list of other recent tabs... I only had a total of 18, so I quickly added another 5 for a total of 23.
If you are referring to apps, I have about 22 in my iPad.s task bar.
browser tabs.
usually more like 25-30.
and iphone only gives 8 tabs usually and the bookmarks aren't as nice as on a tablet, and switching tabs is a bit harder (from my experience with iPads)
as for apps... i don't use many apps.... i have a few tower defense games, mindsweeper, and sbsettings ofc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cilago
One of the challenging aspects of this conversation is the conflating of hardware and software. Narrowing it down, I'd love to know what everyone thinks of the following question:
Regardless of hardware, activity and setting, are we seeing the beginning of the end of the familiar (and 30 year old) Mac/Windows user experience in favor of more gesture/voice-based UX's like iOS and Metro?
In other words, will our "trucks" eventually run an iOS variant instead of OS X?
neither, a version of them fused together for some, linux for some and whatever twisted thing MS comes with for the rest
EXACTLY!!!! ONCE traditional PC's supplement tablets we will be in a post(stereotypical)-PC world!!!
guess what, we are not even starting to enter one!!! TABLETS CURRENTLY SUPPLEMENT traditional PC's!!!
get back to me in 5-10 years and you may be right.
the Post (stereotypical) PC will come eventually, but right now i believe a PC+ world is more true.
my "definitions/understanding of what words mean":
Post (traditional) PC: tablets/smartphones are completely supplemented by traditional PC's.
(traditional) PC+: tablets/smartphones are supplementing traditional PC's.
tell me which one of those is happening right now, than which one will (should) happen in 5-10+ years.
on that note, apparently Amazon has taken multiple MS phone high up people.... lol...
Get back to you in 5 Years? You must be joking!
Let's have a look in 5 months! That will put two quarterly announcements behind us. You do realize the kind of numbers we are talking about, don't you?
Apple is likely to show another gain in Mac sales when it announces in a few days, despite the overall downturn in the PC market this quarter. This has happened for a number of quarters in a row. Mac sales (just Mac sales, mind you, not iOS device sales) have been keeping the PC sales figures in positive growth. Apple moves up to about 3rd largest PC shipper in US market behind HP and whoever's second.
The Mac sells worldwide at maybe 1 for every 19 WinPCs sold, which is a huge improvement from the highest multiple that the Windows PC achieved when it was selling at 56 for every 1 Mac in 2004. The year 2004 was the high water mark for PC. Looking at sales figures alone you wouldn't see this kind of trend, but Horace@Asymco has done some tracking and analysis of this kind. Of course absolute sales numbers for all computers have gone up over the years because there is a larger market in which more and more people can afford to buy a PC -- though the WinPC might now be reaching its saturation (or toleration) in many markets given the recent declines in sales. It appears that new sales are increasingly going to the Mac as increasingly discerning consumers are replacing their old PCs with Macs, and have been for some time.
But, iOS devices. Hmmm. We are talking about some incredible numbers. This is part of the reason analysts and MS don't want them counted as PC sales. They would skew everything. Little factoid: did you know, Apple sold more iOS devices in 2011 alone, than every Mac it has ever sold in 28 years! Over 200 million devices. And Apple is just getting started. There is no saturation in sight and the markets are just opening (because as you keep blathering on about, a person may keep his PC or even continue with a PC purchase ...while at the same time purchasing both an iPhone and an iPad for every member of his family to the neglect of his PC).
Looking back, the trajectories for iPod were good. Later, the trajectories for iPhone were exponentially better. The trajectories for iPad are off the charts.
Did you know, there are more new Android sales/activations than there are PC sales the world over on a daily basis. There are *almost* more iPhone sales/activations per day than PC sales as well (and iPhone sales should surpass PC sales this summer). So, for every PC sold in the WORLD TODAY, there is one Android sale AND one iPhone sale. The iPad, at half the age, is not far behind and is catching up quickly.
So, VERY SOON, imminently, there will be one iPhone PLUS one iPad sold for each and every PC sale in the world made by every PC manufacturer on the planet combined!. Rather, there will be more iPads and more iPhones sold; because the sales rates of the iPad and the iPhone are increasing while the sales rate of the WinPC is decreasing -- the trajectories are going in opposite directions.
Some 20 million iPads this quarter. Little wonder that MS is trying to freeze sales by introducing its non-existent, hyped-up Surface product. When it does materialize (if), it is going to be starting from a dead stop -- in about 20 MS stores apparently (MS is characteristically ambiguous on this). Do you think it will sell 3 million in one launch weekend like an iPad? One wonders if it will sell 3 million in 2013. And this is Microsoft's hope to replace declining PC sales. It seems that MS has achieved maybe 300k WinP7 sales the first half of this year, and these won't run Win8/WinP8/WinRT or whatever is to be MS answer to iOS (which anyone has yet to actually see running on ARM). There is more than a little catch up to do here to catch the Apple "machine" that has been carefully laying track and building steam for 10 years. There is absolutely nothing for MS and its supporters to be blithe or glib about.
5 - 10 years? Yes, that is how far MS is behind Apple right now.
and iphone only gives 8 tabs usually and the bookmarks aren't as nice as on a tablet, and switching tabs is a bit harder (from my experience with iPads)
as for apps... i don't use many apps.... i have a few tower defense games, mindsweeper, and sbsettings ofc.
neither, a version of them fused together for some, linux for some and whatever twisted thing MS comes with for the rest
Because of the context of this thread, I was limiting my comments to the iPad. Admittedly the "tabs" on the iPhone are different than on the iPad. I think it is a valid decision to not use valuable iPhone real estate for tabs -- which would be hard to read and navigate.
As to tabs on the iPad -- what specifically is "a bit harder"in switching tabs?
One of the challenging aspects of this conversation is the conflating of hardware and software. Narrowing it down, I'd love to know what everyone thinks of the following question:
Regardless of hardware, activity and setting, are we seeing the beginning of the end of the familiar (and 30 year old) Mac/Windows user experience in favor of more gesture/voice-based UX's like iOS and Metro?
In other words, will our "trucks" eventually run an iOS variant instead of OS X?
Great question!
To a large extent, our Mac Trucks (see what I did there?) already run an iOS variant -- most apps can be run in the iPhone and iPad simulator. All Apple need do is:
-- allow iOS apps to reside on the Mac OS desktop (or LaunchPad, or some such).
-- automatically invoke the iOS simulator to run the app (analogous to how playing a movie invokes QuickTime)
-- support and/or simulate hardware not available on the Mac (cell, touch, GPS, etc.)
-- possibly make a simulator and LaunchPad for Windows
Based on the way Apple is changing the Xcode development environment, I can see the day that a single code-base will be used for development of apps that run well on either OS, and exploit the advantages and minimize the limitations of the [currently] chosen environment for execution... Kind of a download/run-time packaging, if you will.
I do think that OS X will evolve and continue hiding complexity from the user [by default] so that driving of a Truck and a Sedan will be an intuitive, compatible and pleasant experience (a Truck with air conditioning and an automatic transmission).
I suspect, that there will eventually be a convergence and iOS will be the dominant UI with OS X (the file system, etc.) under the hood -- like the CLI is now.
I just re-watched the TGWTDT workflow video that I posted earlier... Michael Cioni discusses the difference between a "transition" and a "transformation" as it applies to video:
A "transition" is going from SD to HD, or DVD to BluRay... it is just a natural progression and you don't "give up" anything.
A "transformation" is like going from film or tape to complete digital... You are gaining capabilities (5K/4K resolution, over-shooting/sub-framing) -- where you just can't go backwards to the prior system.
I believe the iPad epitomizes the "transition" to a better way of doing things -- where you just can't go back to the old way...
For the grandparents and the youngsters there never was an old way...
Why do you need Windows, Office or Legacy app compatibility if you never used them? Why clutter your life, your mind, your activities, your devices with unnecessary baggage?
Put another way, if Apple wants to sell Macs to grandma, the kids, and the non-techies -- they'll need to make the Mac run like an iPad [by default].
Edit: Who would have imagined that the solution to FTFF... would be HTFF... Hide the Fine Finder!
Edit 2: This is where MS has it all wrong, IMO -- deemphasizing the [more iOS-like] Windows/RT... and promoting the "same old, same old" Windows 8/Pro... put another way, "It's the simplicity, stupid!"
One of the challenging aspects of this conversation is the conflating of hardware and software. Narrowing it down, I'd love to know what everyone thinks of the following question:
Regardless of hardware, activity and setting, are we seeing the beginning of the end of the familiar (and 30 year old) Mac/Windows user experience in favor of more gesture/voice-based UX's like iOS and Metro?
In other words, will our "trucks" eventually run an iOS variant instead of OS X?
Interesting question. I believe very strongly in the cars/trucks analogy, so I will look to that analogy to provide my opinion:
Trucks are still very much alive today. While the majority of people drive sedans (tablets) and SUVs (laptops), there is still a (huge) niche for trucks. If you work in any sort of trade, you likely drive a truck for work or even personal use if you're self-employed. Some people just prefer the feel of a truck. And trucks today are no less a "truck" than they were years ago.
That said, trucks have experienced many improvements derived from what people like about cars. They ride nicer. They often have a backseat. They have entertainment systems. They get better gas mileage. The differences between cars and trucks are less than what they were. But I don't think any sane person expects them to merge chassis anytime soon.
With that in mind, you can see the similarities in how OSX is gaining features that make it look (cosmetically) more like iOS, because they're things people like about iOS. But I don't expect OSX to ever lose file management (it may be hidden, of course, by default), multiple windows in a single display, etc.
Interesting question. I believe very strongly in the cars/trucks analogy, so I will look to that analogy to provide my opinion:
Trucks are still very much alive today. While the majority of people drive sedans (tablets) and SUVs (laptops), there is still a (huge) niche for trucks. If you work in any sort of trade, you likely drive a truck for work or even personal use if you're self-employed. Some people just prefer the feel of a truck. And trucks today are no less a "truck" than they were years ago.
That said, trucks have experienced many improvements derived from what people like about cars. They ride nicer. They often have a backseat. They have entertainment systems. They get better gas mileage. The differences between cars and trucks are less than what they were. But I don't think any sane person expects them to merge chassis anytime soon.
With that in mind, you can see the similarities in how OSX is gaining features that make it look (cosmetically) more like iOS, because they're things people like about iOS. But I don't expect OSX to ever lose file management (it may be hidden, of course, by default), multiple windows in a single display, etc.
Good answers!
It is interesting that the Surface RT has a feature borrowed from the [ill-fated] Courier, called Snap Window -- where you can run two apps, side-by-side, each in their own half-screen window. You can get the iPad app Tapozé, which brings Snap Window and much of the Courier experience to the iPad. I think Apple would do well to implement some of these capabilities in iOS.
To a large extent, our Mac Trucks (see what I did there?) already run an iOS variant -- most apps can be run in the iPhone and iPad simulator. All Apple need do is:
-- allow iOS apps to reside on the Mac OS desktop (or LaunchPad, or some such).
-- automatically invoke the iOS simulator to run the app (analogous to how playing a movie invokes QuickTime)
-- support and/or simulate hardware not available on the Mac (cell, touch, GPS, etc.)
-- possibly make a simulator and LaunchPad for Windows
Based on the way Apple is changing the Xcode development environment, I can see the day that a single code-base will be used for development of apps that run well on either OS, and exploit the advantages and minimize the limitations of the [currently] chosen environment for execution... Kind of a download/run-time packaging, if you will.
I do think that OS X will evolve and continue hiding complexity from the user [by default] so that driving of a Truck and a Sedan will be an intuitive, compatible and pleasant experience (a Truck with air conditioning and an automatic transmission).
I suspect, that there will eventually be a convergence and iOS will be the dominant UI with OS X (the file system, etc.) under the hood -- like the CLI is now.
I just re-watched the TGWTDT workflow video that I posted earlier... Michael Cioni discusses the difference between a "transition" and a "transformation" as it applies to video:
A "transition" is going from SD to HD, or DVD to BluRay... it is just a natural progression and you don't "give up" anything.
A "transformation" is like going from film or tape to complete digital... You are gaining capabilities (5K/4K resolution, over-shooting/sub-framing) -- where you just can't go backwards to the prior system.
I believe the iPad epitomizes the "transition" to a better way of doing things -- where you just can't go back to the old way...
For the grandparents and the youngsters there never was an old way... Why do you need Windows, Office or Legacy app compatibility if you never used them? Why clutter your life, your mind, your devices with unnecessary baggage?
Put another way, if Apple wants to sell Macs to grandma, the kids, and the non-techies -- they'll need to make the Mac run like an iPad [by default].
Edit: Who would have imagined that the solution to FTFF... would be HTFF... Hide the Fine Finder!
I hear what you're saying, but I politely disagree on some points.
What is the point in running the "same" (implying identical code) apps on iOS and OSX? Why not two versions that sync data via iCloud (i.e. Pages for Mac and Pages for iOS)? From the user's standpoint, it would be no different, especially if apps are eventually sold as a bundle or "+" (like Universal iOS apps). Then there is no need for emulators, and apps can be coded for their specific OS and UI. With the emphasis on iCloud, I think this is Apple's direction.
I do agree that OSX will continue to borrow from iOS as far as UI goes, with complexity hidden by default, much like how trucks have air conditioned seats, better fuel economy, a backseat, etc. But the "Mac Truck" will still be a "truck".
As far as the "transformation" paradigm shift, I agree. It's demonstrated that many people who thought they "needed" a PC really don't; they just need an iPad. Other people like grandparents who thought PCs were too hard to use have fallen in love with an iPad. However, I disagree that Apple wants to sell Macs to the user segment you mentioned; I would say that want to sell iPads. That is their focus.
And to a certain extent, Apple is making OSX "look" like iOS because there will inevitably be a halo effect, and some people who fall in love with an iPad will choose a Mac when they purchase their next PC, and the changes will make them more comfortable. However, the user segment you listed don't "need" PCs; that's the whole point of the post-PC era. Most people only need an iPad to do what they want to do.
so, I am and was talking with my friend, i have a summary of what we were saying.
-it was a brutal in beginning, made himself use ipad 2 as main device to consume device
-when he did it they lacked some tech like online (aka remote simulation screened to tablet)
-cumbersome to do any word/excel/etc related work
-many websites were still not optimized for tablet
-he could survive on it for 4-5 months, didn't miss anything apart from intensive gaming.
-but believes that any tablet device is a very good compliment to desktop or laptop, but it will never replace a primary device no matter how good apps (things that replicate desktop experience)
-because restraints on screen size AND ways of impute (swype would have made it better, it is on android)
-had to use portable keyboard which worked as a stand
-can do 60% of his work on ipad vs. tablet, but could not replace completely
-streaming speeds slow compared to desktop + buffer less
-cannot not do multiple things at once (Seeing multiple programs at once)
-works as: investment background, was being mentored by men from two different multinational companies which both were financial firms
I hear what you're saying, but I politely disagree on some points.
What is the point in running the "same" (implying identical code) apps on iOS and OSX? Why not two versions that sync data via iCloud (i.e. Pages for Mac and Pages for iOS)? From the user's standpoint, it would be no different, especially if apps are eventually sold as a bundle or "+" (like Universal iOS apps). Then there is no need for emulators, and apps can be coded for their specific OS and UI. With the emphasis on iCloud, I think this is Apple's direction.
I do agree that OSX will continue to borrow from iOS as far as UI goes, with complexity hidden by default, much like how trucks have air conditioned seats, better fuel economy, a backseat, etc. But the "Mac Truck" will still be a "truck".
As far as the "transformation" paradigm shift, I agree. It's demonstrated that many people who thought they "needed" a PC really don't; they just need an iPad. Other people like grandparents who thought PCs were too hard to use have fallen in love with an iPad. However, I disagree that Apple wants to sell Macs to the user segment you mentioned; I would say that want to sell iPads. That is their focus.
And to a certain extent, Apple is making OSX "look" like iOS because there will inevitably be a halo effect, and some people who fall in love with an iPad will choose a Mac when they purchase their next PC, and the changes will make them more comfortable. However, the user segment you listed don't "need" PCs; that's the whole point of the post-PC era. Most people only need an iPad to do what they want to do.
Ahh... I should have been clearer. I did not mean identical code -- rather a shared, common code-base for the iOS, OS X (and possibly server version) of the same (or complimentary apps).
Rignt now in iOS, you can include common code, then unique iPad and unique iPhone code in the same source code-base. Then you simple compile and link [package] for the desired targets.
I would add [at least] two capabilities:
-- allow for the inclusion of OS X source and iOS source in the common code-base.
-- defer the packaging (at least the linking) to downloaad/install and/or execution time.
As to selling Macs to grandma or the youngsters' parents... Likely, for the next 3-5 years there will be a periodic need for a Truck -- to hold your media, to backup and sync, to act as an in intermediary between your iPad and the cloud.
You might think of this as a home server. Today, this would likely, be a Mac Mini with some external HDD and, possibly, the iPad as the display for the headless Mini. In all likelihood, though, Apple could combine storage, AirPort Extreme, TimeMachine into an AppleTV-like box that provides the necessary support functions.
When the cost/speed of bandwidth and storage advance to the proper levels, these "Mac" functions could be handled by the cloud.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Enigmamatic
The reasons you defend MSs decisions are based on the same fallacies MS is making and has always made. You cling to the past. Case in point, you want USB, IR, and optical media on a tablet.
No, I don't want optical media. I said I wanted a card slot. It's be nice if you read what I wrote instead of responding to your imagination.
USB and IR? You bet I could use those. As could a significant portion of the market.
As for the rest, pfft. I dont' defend their decisions. I simply observe Apple is screwing up here with these poorly chosen new directions for IOS and OSX. Time will prove me right.
I didn't imagine anything. You state "optical" right in your first paragraph and don't try to say you meant "IR" because you state that previously in the same sentence. I didn't imagine anything and your rebuttal is week indicating you have no argument for my truisms. USB and IR are not needed by a significant number in the market. The fact that tens of millions (if you count iPhones, iPod Touches and iPads together it's hundreds of millions) of devices sold without any of these features then you see that they are not needed.
BTW. You never answered about your TV, VCR, gas mileage, stove, or floppy disks.
You are the minority. And that's okay. I'm sure they'll still let you get married. Unless you're in the gay minority too. Oh, oh! Or considering your attachment to the outdated you're still living in the fifties. Then you couldn't marry someone of a different race either. Man. Your life sucks dude. Come to the 21st century when you're ready. We're waiting for you. But you'll need to do an Erase & Install so your life works and is compatible in this century.
Hmmmm. I guess you're just screwed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pendergast
As mentioned, Jobs' analogy of cars and trucks makes the most sense.
Traditional PCs = pickups
Tablets/Smartphones = sedans
I suppose laptops, who although predate tablets actually seem like a tweener category between PCs and Tablets, are analogous to crossover vehicles, SUVs, etc.
At one point, everybody used trucks. Now they're mainly used in professional settings or for people who need to haul things around. While not replacing trucks, the center of focus for the average person has shifted to sedans, and their ilk. Why? They accomplish 95% of what the average person needs to do, while having the benefits of a better ride, better fuel economy, etc.
PCs/workstations/etc won't be replaced anytime soon. Professionals still need them, and prosumers may have one at home to do heavy lifting. But the industry's focus is shifting to the tablet, as it accomplishes 95% of what the average user wants to do: browse the web, shop online, bank online, check email, view photos, play games, and stay up to date with family and friends. For the average user, how often do they need the functionality of a PC? A tablet does the majority of what people want, and it presents a more portable form factor, a more enjoyable experience, and better battery life.
For me personally, I use a PC at work. I could never replace the functionality with a tablet; even if the processor was just as fast, the form factor is for portability, not serious work. But when I get home? I don't even have a PC at home. Just an iPad. And an iPhone. I haven't had a need for a PC at home for quite a while.
I imagine we're headed down a path where most people will be in a similar boat: a PC at work, a personal device (tablet, etc) at home. For some people, they might continue to have a PC at home, but it will outnumbered by personal devices; instead of the days when a home had 3-4 PCs at home, there will be perhaps 1 PC and 2-4 personal devices. Just like people may have a pickup truck at home for the occasional chore, but they drive around in a Camry most days.
exactly, but while a tablet can be used for 95% of the things most people need to do i would still prefer a traditional PC currently. for things like tabs....
And as for better battery life, that is generally true, a few computers have splice batteries that can give them crazy battery life.. As on my earlier post said, one laptop with splice battery + one replacing its cd slot theoretically gives it almost 20 hours of wifi surfing the web...
not that it matters, because tablets will (should) become the largest portion of the marketshare every year (not just after Apple's huge iPad penetration)!
However, the surface is the kind of tablet a "power user" would use.... for example on my jailbroken iPhone i typically have 20+ tabs open....
just to sum up my big overall point is that for the next 5-10 years PC+ makes sense. afterwards, once tablets are enough for everything for super power workstations, multimonitors and heavy gaming, and servers (herp derp, its my tablet server), etc, etc. Than i will say it is a post-(traditional) PC era....
Quote:
Originally Posted by fyngyrz
...there is no inherent conflict between "just works" and "highly capable"
For instance, you think adding an IR port (so the tablet can talk to/at your stereo, tv, etc.) will make the tablet suddenly not "just work"?
You think adding a memory card slot will make it not "just work"?
You think that because a folder can have more than 16 apps in it, it'll stop working? Or that if you can drag one folder into another, you can't drag them back out? Or never drag them in at all?
You're not thinking at all.
However, yes, the competition will be doing all these things and more, and if Apple sticks to this "dumbed down" hardware path, they'll simply fall behind. So I predict that Apple will see the light, and not too long from now, either. And in the meantime, I'll just wait -- because I'm not buying an "upgrade" that isn't an upgrade.
'You think adding a memory card slot will make it not "just work"?'
Consider this: When you do such a simple thing as add a card slot to a tablet, this simplifies everything... Right?
Wrong! It is just the opposite... it complicates everything!
-- the User, the OS and the device need to keep track of where things are: on the device; on the presently-inserted memory card; on another memory card
-- how do you span 1 or more memory cards for a large file or set of related data?
-- there needs to be an index [app] and accessible file system [app] to allow access and movement among the internal SSD and the various memory cards
-- you need another device (likely a pc) to aggregate and manage the content of the various memory cards
-- what do you do when the desired file or app is not on the designated device?
-- to take advantage of the memory card slot, you must carry around a bunch of memory cards, put them in something, label them so you can tell what's on them
-- you need to develop a workflow so you know when to create them, merge them, back them up or erase them as necessary...
Just like the need for [the hassle of] external tapes and CDs killed the Walkman and other pmps, external storage, external memory cards would add levels of complexity to the mobile tablet.
There are special cases where external memory cards are useful -- ingesting video or pictures form a camera -- but even these are being replaced by WiFi and the could.
But for most users, an external memory card slot just adds unnecessary, and unwanted, hassle.
It makes all the difference in the world -- you don't need to gather your memory cards, determine which are needed (hopeful you are accurate), put them in something to carry along with you... Instead, you just grab your tablet and go...
It kinda' reminds me of packing up the toddler to visit friends in the winter time... You spend 15 minutes getting them dressed... then they have to go potty... undress, redress -- go visit your friends and spend another 15 minutes getting them undressed. After about an hour visit, it is time ro repeat the process for the return trip home.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Enigmamatic
The reasons you defend MSs decisions are based on the same fallacies MS is making and has always made. You cling to the past. Case in point, you want USB, IR, and optical media on a tablet.
Optical media is dead - that's a fact. No one is working on a successor to BlueRay and anything that tries to would fail. Burning disks or buying movies on disk is outdated and obsolete. Have you seen sales figures for optical media? It is quickly on its way out and I for one and many others don't lament it's death. Any view other than that is likely short-sighted.
IR is outdated. It's hardly used. Even my ceiling fan uses RF for its remote. IR is only good for remote controls and with the ubiquity of BlueTooth and WiFi there is no need for IR. one would surely never choose IR over BT or, especially, WiFi for data transmission. There is no point to IR for either a remote (must be line of site) or data transfer (can you say painfully slow?).
USB is not necessary for a tablet. One doesn't do anything with USB that they can't do over WiFi or BT. File transfer with a thumb drive? Why? You've already got your portable device in the tablet. Carrying around a thumb drive or hard drive in addition to that is assanine. USB mic? You have a dual purpose audio port that works with several third party headsets. Backup Drive? You have the cloud and backup to PC (which should have its own dedicated backup drive hense a double backup solution - triple if you count the cloud).
In reference to your file system argument, well, I'd like greater capacity per folder as well but it hasn't been a huge issue for the majority of users. Additionally the dismissal of the traditional folder system is welcome. Most users can't figure out where their résumé is saved to on their C drive to save their lives. It's pathetic, but true. Most users think their document is stored IN WORD. Not as an independent file. I know all this from my experience working with the public. So Apple's in app documents simply builds on the consumers expectations. The fact that the docs are stored on the cloud as well as locally as independent files is transparent so the user always knows where to go for their data. To the app that created it.
The iPad (and iPhone and iPod Touch, and Android devices for that matter) are disruptors. They are not continuations of the same OLD tired and dying technology that a minority of users are unwilling to give up or are blinded to the demise of their ubiquity. The iOS devices are a new breed ushering in an erra where we are liberated from dragging around a half dozen peripherals to support our bloated PCs (I use the term PC to describe both PCs and Macs in this context). The rest of the world is moving on and you're welcome to join the ride or stay behind. If you need IR, USB, and optical drives for the majority of what you do with a tablet then by all means stick with your legacy technology. No one is asking you to abandon it. Just don't expect the rest of us who have moved on to continue to cater to your needs because we will not. Like religion, political party, or favorite ice cream flavor the choice is yours. Just don't impose it on me.
On that note, how's your standard definition CRT TV, VCR, carburated engine, 3.5" floppy disk drive, and wood burning kettle stove working out for you?
+++ QFT
Nice post!
Quote:
Originally Posted by fyngyrz
Good grief. I am an Apple developer, and more than that, I've been developing software since the 1970's. It's no easier (or more difficult) to develop IOS apps than it is OSX, WIndows or Linux, for that matter. It's just (slightly) different. The cost of IOS apps is just a marketing strategy. And there are some that are quite expensive, too. As well to note that there are many inexpensive or free OSX, WIndows and LInux apps.
I really don't know where you people get these crazy ideas.
Fastest? No. There are faster computers out there than Apple makes; there are certainly some faster tablets, too. Lightest, yes, perhaps. And that's a big selling point, I agree. But it's not enough to keep them in front. The question every consumer ultimately asks is "what can this device do for me" and when APple comes up wanting in a comparison, that'll be the beginning of the market force that makes them adjust their strategy.
No, the consumer asks: Can I do what I want to do? They aren't assessing the device as much as they are defining their needs -- a very subtle, but important difference.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nicolbolas
exactly, but while a tablet can be used for 95% of the things most people need to do i would still prefer a traditional PC currently. for things like tabs....
And as for better battery life, that is generally true, a few computers have splice batteries that can give them crazy battery life.. As on my earlier post said, one laptop with splice battery + one replacing its cd slot theoretically gives it almost 20 hours of wifi surfing the web...
not that it matters, because tablets will (should) become the largest portion of the marketshare every year (not just after Apple's huge iPad penetration)!
However, the surface is the kind of tablet a "power user" would use.... for example on my jailbroken iPhone i typically have 20+ tabs open....
just to sum up my big overall point is that for the next 5-10 years PC+ makes sense. afterwards, once tablets are enough for everything for super power workstations, multimonitors and heavy gaming, and servers (herp derp, its my tablet server), etc, etc. Than i will say it is a post-(traditional) PC era....
Tabs? Do you mean browser tabs or apps?
On my iPad Safari there 10 tabs displayed across the top... the last tab (if necessary) opens a drop down scrollable list of other recent tabs... I only had a total of 18, so I quickly added another 5 for a total of 23.
If you are referring to apps, I have about 22 in my iPad.s task bar.
As to your point about PC+ -- MS has promoted PC+ tablets for the last 10 years... and failed! The bulk of the population (consumers and professionals, alike) have moved on and are adopting the post-pc iPad concept.
To illustrate, here is a new $9.99 iPad app I discovered today... It is used by film and video directors, ADs, editors, producers to review dailies.
The site is hosted by Michael Cioni -- a very talented video/genius/everything guy. He was responsible for setting up the editing gear, workflow and procedures for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo. TGWTDT was shot in Europe (mostly Sweden) and the dailies were shipped to the US as podcasts.
Here's the site:
http://lightiron.com/production/todailies
And here's Michael describing the workflow of TGWTDT a worthwhile watch:
http://fcp.co/final-cut-pro/news/732-michael-cioni-talks-4k-workflow-and-fcp-proxies-for-the-girl-with-the-dragon-tattoo
The ToDaillies app
One of the challenging aspects of this conversation is the conflating of hardware and software. Narrowing it down, I'd love to know what everyone thinks of the following question:
Regardless of hardware, activity and setting, are we seeing the beginning of the end of the familiar (and 30 year old) Mac/Windows user experience in favor of more gesture/voice-based UX's like iOS and Metro?
In other words, will our "trucks" eventually run an iOS variant instead of OS X?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum
Tabs? Do you mean browser tabs or apps?
On my iPad Safari there 10 tabs displayed across the top... the last tab (if necessary) opens a drop down scrollable list of other recent tabs... I only had a total of 18, so I quickly added another 5 for a total of 23.
If you are referring to apps, I have about 22 in my iPad.s task bar.
browser tabs.
usually more like 25-30.
and iphone only gives 8 tabs usually and the bookmarks aren't as nice as on a tablet, and switching tabs is a bit harder (from my experience with iPads)
as for apps... i don't use many apps.... i have a few tower defense games, mindsweeper, and sbsettings ofc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cilago
One of the challenging aspects of this conversation is the conflating of hardware and software. Narrowing it down, I'd love to know what everyone thinks of the following question:
Regardless of hardware, activity and setting, are we seeing the beginning of the end of the familiar (and 30 year old) Mac/Windows user experience in favor of more gesture/voice-based UX's like iOS and Metro?
In other words, will our "trucks" eventually run an iOS variant instead of OS X?
neither, a version of them fused together for some, linux for some and whatever twisted thing MS comes with for the rest
Quote:
Originally Posted by nicolbolas
EXACTLY!!!! ONCE traditional PC's supplement tablets we will be in a post(stereotypical)-PC world!!!
guess what, we are not even starting to enter one!!! TABLETS CURRENTLY SUPPLEMENT traditional PC's!!!
get back to me in 5-10 years and you may be right.
the Post (stereotypical) PC will come eventually, but right now i believe a PC+ world is more true.
my "definitions/understanding of what words mean":
Post (traditional) PC: tablets/smartphones are completely supplemented by traditional PC's.
(traditional) PC+: tablets/smartphones are supplementing traditional PC's.
tell me which one of those is happening right now, than which one will (should) happen in 5-10+ years.
on that note, apparently Amazon has taken multiple MS phone high up people.... lol...
Get back to you in 5 Years? You must be joking!
Let's have a look in 5 months! That will put two quarterly announcements behind us. You do realize the kind of numbers we are talking about, don't you?
Apple is likely to show another gain in Mac sales when it announces in a few days, despite the overall downturn in the PC market this quarter. This has happened for a number of quarters in a row. Mac sales (just Mac sales, mind you, not iOS device sales) have been keeping the PC sales figures in positive growth. Apple moves up to about 3rd largest PC shipper in US market behind HP and whoever's second.
The Mac sells worldwide at maybe 1 for every 19 WinPCs sold, which is a huge improvement from the highest multiple that the Windows PC achieved when it was selling at 56 for every 1 Mac in 2004. The year 2004 was the high water mark for PC. Looking at sales figures alone you wouldn't see this kind of trend, but Horace@Asymco has done some tracking and analysis of this kind. Of course absolute sales numbers for all computers have gone up over the years because there is a larger market in which more and more people can afford to buy a PC -- though the WinPC might now be reaching its saturation (or toleration) in many markets given the recent declines in sales. It appears that new sales are increasingly going to the Mac as increasingly discerning consumers are replacing their old PCs with Macs, and have been for some time.
But, iOS devices. Hmmm. We are talking about some incredible numbers. This is part of the reason analysts and MS don't want them counted as PC sales. They would skew everything. Little factoid: did you know, Apple sold more iOS devices in 2011 alone, than every Mac it has ever sold in 28 years! Over 200 million devices. And Apple is just getting started. There is no saturation in sight and the markets are just opening (because as you keep blathering on about, a person may keep his PC or even continue with a PC purchase ...while at the same time purchasing both an iPhone and an iPad for every member of his family to the neglect of his PC).
Looking back, the trajectories for iPod were good. Later, the trajectories for iPhone were exponentially better. The trajectories for iPad are off the charts.
Did you know, there are more new Android sales/activations than there are PC sales the world over on a daily basis. There are *almost* more iPhone sales/activations per day than PC sales as well (and iPhone sales should surpass PC sales this summer). So, for every PC sold in the WORLD TODAY, there is one Android sale AND one iPhone sale. The iPad, at half the age, is not far behind and is catching up quickly.
So, VERY SOON, imminently, there will be one iPhone PLUS one iPad sold for each and every PC sale in the world made by every PC manufacturer on the planet combined!. Rather, there will be more iPads and more iPhones sold; because the sales rates of the iPad and the iPhone are increasing while the sales rate of the WinPC is decreasing -- the trajectories are going in opposite directions.
Some 20 million iPads this quarter. Little wonder that MS is trying to freeze sales by introducing its non-existent, hyped-up Surface product. When it does materialize (if), it is going to be starting from a dead stop -- in about 20 MS stores apparently (MS is characteristically ambiguous on this). Do you think it will sell 3 million in one launch weekend like an iPad? One wonders if it will sell 3 million in 2013. And this is Microsoft's hope to replace declining PC sales. It seems that MS has achieved maybe 300k WinP7 sales the first half of this year, and these won't run Win8/WinP8/WinRT or whatever is to be MS answer to iOS (which anyone has yet to actually see running on ARM). There is more than a little catch up to do here to catch the Apple "machine" that has been carefully laying track and building steam for 10 years. There is absolutely nothing for MS and its supporters to be blithe or glib about.
5 - 10 years? Yes, that is how far MS is behind Apple right now.
It's a neat trick to hide the copy machine tactics of MS into a "pre" & "post" PC debate, when it should be about "pre" & "post" iPad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nicolbolas
browser tabs.
usually more like 25-30.
and iphone only gives 8 tabs usually and the bookmarks aren't as nice as on a tablet, and switching tabs is a bit harder (from my experience with iPads)
as for apps... i don't use many apps.... i have a few tower defense games, mindsweeper, and sbsettings ofc.
neither, a version of them fused together for some, linux for some and whatever twisted thing MS comes with for the rest
Because of the context of this thread, I was limiting my comments to the iPad. Admittedly the "tabs" on the iPhone are different than on the iPad. I think it is a valid decision to not use valuable iPhone real estate for tabs -- which would be hard to read and navigate.
As to tabs on the iPad -- what specifically is "a bit harder"in switching tabs?
Removed...
Two of those magical AI forum moments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cilago
One of the challenging aspects of this conversation is the conflating of hardware and software. Narrowing it down, I'd love to know what everyone thinks of the following question:
Regardless of hardware, activity and setting, are we seeing the beginning of the end of the familiar (and 30 year old) Mac/Windows user experience in favor of more gesture/voice-based UX's like iOS and Metro?
In other words, will our "trucks" eventually run an iOS variant instead of OS X?
Great question!
To a large extent, our Mac Trucks (see what I did there?) already run an iOS variant -- most apps can be run in the iPhone and iPad simulator. All Apple need do is:
-- allow iOS apps to reside on the Mac OS desktop (or LaunchPad, or some such).
-- automatically invoke the iOS simulator to run the app (analogous to how playing a movie invokes QuickTime)
-- support and/or simulate hardware not available on the Mac (cell, touch, GPS, etc.)
-- possibly make a simulator and LaunchPad for Windows
Based on the way Apple is changing the Xcode development environment, I can see the day that a single code-base will be used for development of apps that run well on either OS, and exploit the advantages and minimize the limitations of the [currently] chosen environment for execution... Kind of a download/run-time packaging, if you will.
I do think that OS X will evolve and continue hiding complexity from the user [by default] so that driving of a Truck and a Sedan will be an intuitive, compatible and pleasant experience (a Truck with air conditioning and an automatic transmission).
I suspect, that there will eventually be a convergence and iOS will be the dominant UI with OS X (the file system, etc.) under the hood -- like the CLI is now.
I just re-watched the TGWTDT workflow video that I posted earlier... Michael Cioni discusses the difference between a "transition" and a "transformation" as it applies to video:
A "transition" is going from SD to HD, or DVD to BluRay... it is just a natural progression and you don't "give up" anything.
A "transformation" is like going from film or tape to complete digital... You are gaining capabilities (5K/4K resolution, over-shooting/sub-framing) -- where you just can't go backwards to the prior system.
I believe the iPad epitomizes the "transition" to a better way of doing things -- where you just can't go back to the old way...
For the grandparents and the youngsters there never was an old way...
Why do you need Windows, Office or Legacy app compatibility if you never used them? Why clutter your life, your mind, your activities, your devices with unnecessary baggage?
Put another way, if Apple wants to sell Macs to grandma, the kids, and the non-techies -- they'll need to make the Mac run like an iPad [by default].
Edit: Who would have imagined that the solution to FTFF... would be HTFF... Hide the Fine Finder!
Edit 2: This is where MS has it all wrong, IMO -- deemphasizing the [more iOS-like] Windows/RT... and promoting the "same old, same old" Windows 8/Pro... put another way, "It's the simplicity, stupid!"
Removed...
One of those magical AI forum moments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cilago
One of the challenging aspects of this conversation is the conflating of hardware and software. Narrowing it down, I'd love to know what everyone thinks of the following question:
Regardless of hardware, activity and setting, are we seeing the beginning of the end of the familiar (and 30 year old) Mac/Windows user experience in favor of more gesture/voice-based UX's like iOS and Metro?
In other words, will our "trucks" eventually run an iOS variant instead of OS X?
Interesting question. I believe very strongly in the cars/trucks analogy, so I will look to that analogy to provide my opinion:
Trucks are still very much alive today. While the majority of people drive sedans (tablets) and SUVs (laptops), there is still a (huge) niche for trucks. If you work in any sort of trade, you likely drive a truck for work or even personal use if you're self-employed. Some people just prefer the feel of a truck. And trucks today are no less a "truck" than they were years ago.
That said, trucks have experienced many improvements derived from what people like about cars. They ride nicer. They often have a backseat. They have entertainment systems. They get better gas mileage. The differences between cars and trucks are less than what they were. But I don't think any sane person expects them to merge chassis anytime soon.
With that in mind, you can see the similarities in how OSX is gaining features that make it look (cosmetically) more like iOS, because they're things people like about iOS. But I don't expect OSX to ever lose file management (it may be hidden, of course, by default), multiple windows in a single display, etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pendergast
Interesting question. I believe very strongly in the cars/trucks analogy, so I will look to that analogy to provide my opinion:
Trucks are still very much alive today. While the majority of people drive sedans (tablets) and SUVs (laptops), there is still a (huge) niche for trucks. If you work in any sort of trade, you likely drive a truck for work or even personal use if you're self-employed. Some people just prefer the feel of a truck. And trucks today are no less a "truck" than they were years ago.
That said, trucks have experienced many improvements derived from what people like about cars. They ride nicer. They often have a backseat. They have entertainment systems. They get better gas mileage. The differences between cars and trucks are less than what they were. But I don't think any sane person expects them to merge chassis anytime soon.
With that in mind, you can see the similarities in how OSX is gaining features that make it look (cosmetically) more like iOS, because they're things people like about iOS. But I don't expect OSX to ever lose file management (it may be hidden, of course, by default), multiple windows in a single display, etc.
Good answers!
It is interesting that the Surface RT has a feature borrowed from the [ill-fated] Courier, called Snap Window -- where you can run two apps, side-by-side, each in their own half-screen window. You can get the iPad app Tapozé, which brings Snap Window and much of the Courier experience to the iPad. I think Apple would do well to implement some of these capabilities in iOS.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum
Great question!
To a large extent, our Mac Trucks (see what I did there?) already run an iOS variant -- most apps can be run in the iPhone and iPad simulator. All Apple need do is:
-- allow iOS apps to reside on the Mac OS desktop (or LaunchPad, or some such).
-- automatically invoke the iOS simulator to run the app (analogous to how playing a movie invokes QuickTime)
-- support and/or simulate hardware not available on the Mac (cell, touch, GPS, etc.)
-- possibly make a simulator and LaunchPad for Windows
Based on the way Apple is changing the Xcode development environment, I can see the day that a single code-base will be used for development of apps that run well on either OS, and exploit the advantages and minimize the limitations of the [currently] chosen environment for execution... Kind of a download/run-time packaging, if you will.
I do think that OS X will evolve and continue hiding complexity from the user [by default] so that driving of a Truck and a Sedan will be an intuitive, compatible and pleasant experience (a Truck with air conditioning and an automatic transmission).
I suspect, that there will eventually be a convergence and iOS will be the dominant UI with OS X (the file system, etc.) under the hood -- like the CLI is now.
I just re-watched the TGWTDT workflow video that I posted earlier... Michael Cioni discusses the difference between a "transition" and a "transformation" as it applies to video:
A "transition" is going from SD to HD, or DVD to BluRay... it is just a natural progression and you don't "give up" anything.
A "transformation" is like going from film or tape to complete digital... You are gaining capabilities (5K/4K resolution, over-shooting/sub-framing) -- where you just can't go backwards to the prior system.
I believe the iPad epitomizes the "transition" to a better way of doing things -- where you just can't go back to the old way...
For the grandparents and the youngsters there never was an old way... Why do you need Windows, Office or Legacy app compatibility if you never used them? Why clutter your life, your mind, your devices with unnecessary baggage?
Put another way, if Apple wants to sell Macs to grandma, the kids, and the non-techies -- they'll need to make the Mac run like an iPad [by default].
Edit: Who would have imagined that the solution to FTFF... would be HTFF... Hide the Fine Finder!
I hear what you're saying, but I politely disagree on some points.
What is the point in running the "same" (implying identical code) apps on iOS and OSX? Why not two versions that sync data via iCloud (i.e. Pages for Mac and Pages for iOS)? From the user's standpoint, it would be no different, especially if apps are eventually sold as a bundle or "+" (like Universal iOS apps). Then there is no need for emulators, and apps can be coded for their specific OS and UI. With the emphasis on iCloud, I think this is Apple's direction.
I do agree that OSX will continue to borrow from iOS as far as UI goes, with complexity hidden by default, much like how trucks have air conditioned seats, better fuel economy, a backseat, etc. But the "Mac Truck" will still be a "truck".
As far as the "transformation" paradigm shift, I agree. It's demonstrated that many people who thought they "needed" a PC really don't; they just need an iPad. Other people like grandparents who thought PCs were too hard to use have fallen in love with an iPad. However, I disagree that Apple wants to sell Macs to the user segment you mentioned; I would say that want to sell iPads. That is their focus.
And to a certain extent, Apple is making OSX "look" like iOS because there will inevitably be a halo effect, and some people who fall in love with an iPad will choose a Mac when they purchase their next PC, and the changes will make them more comfortable. However, the user segment you listed don't "need" PCs; that's the whole point of the post-PC era. Most people only need an iPad to do what they want to do.
so, I am and was talking with my friend, i have a summary of what we were saying.
-it was a brutal in beginning, made himself use ipad 2 as main device to consume device
-when he did it they lacked some tech like online (aka remote simulation screened to tablet)
-cumbersome to do any word/excel/etc related work
-many websites were still not optimized for tablet
-he could survive on it for 4-5 months, didn't miss anything apart from intensive gaming.
-but believes that any tablet device is a very good compliment to desktop or laptop, but it will never replace a primary device no matter how good apps (things that replicate desktop experience)
-because restraints on screen size AND ways of impute (swype would have made it better, it is on android)
-had to use portable keyboard which worked as a stand
-can do 60% of his work on ipad vs. tablet, but could not replace completely
-streaming speeds slow compared to desktop + buffer less
-cannot not do multiple things at once (Seeing multiple programs at once)
-works as: investment background, was being mentored by men from two different multinational companies which both were financial firms
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pendergast
I hear what you're saying, but I politely disagree on some points.
What is the point in running the "same" (implying identical code) apps on iOS and OSX? Why not two versions that sync data via iCloud (i.e. Pages for Mac and Pages for iOS)? From the user's standpoint, it would be no different, especially if apps are eventually sold as a bundle or "+" (like Universal iOS apps). Then there is no need for emulators, and apps can be coded for their specific OS and UI. With the emphasis on iCloud, I think this is Apple's direction.
I do agree that OSX will continue to borrow from iOS as far as UI goes, with complexity hidden by default, much like how trucks have air conditioned seats, better fuel economy, a backseat, etc. But the "Mac Truck" will still be a "truck".
As far as the "transformation" paradigm shift, I agree. It's demonstrated that many people who thought they "needed" a PC really don't; they just need an iPad. Other people like grandparents who thought PCs were too hard to use have fallen in love with an iPad. However, I disagree that Apple wants to sell Macs to the user segment you mentioned; I would say that want to sell iPads. That is their focus.
And to a certain extent, Apple is making OSX "look" like iOS because there will inevitably be a halo effect, and some people who fall in love with an iPad will choose a Mac when they purchase their next PC, and the changes will make them more comfortable. However, the user segment you listed don't "need" PCs; that's the whole point of the post-PC era. Most people only need an iPad to do what they want to do.
Ahh... I should have been clearer. I did not mean identical code -- rather a shared, common code-base for the iOS, OS X (and possibly server version) of the same (or complimentary apps).
Rignt now in iOS, you can include common code, then unique iPad and unique iPhone code in the same source code-base. Then you simple compile and link [package] for the desired targets.
I would add [at least] two capabilities:
-- allow for the inclusion of OS X source and iOS source in the common code-base.
-- defer the packaging (at least the linking) to downloaad/install and/or execution time.
As to selling Macs to grandma or the youngsters' parents... Likely, for the next 3-5 years there will be a periodic need for a Truck -- to hold your media, to backup and sync, to act as an in intermediary between your iPad and the cloud.
You might think of this as a home server. Today, this would likely, be a Mac Mini with some external HDD and, possibly, the iPad as the display for the headless Mini. In all likelihood, though, Apple could combine storage, AirPort Extreme, TimeMachine into an AppleTV-like box that provides the necessary support functions.
When the cost/speed of bandwidth and storage advance to the proper levels, these "Mac" functions could be handled by the cloud.