Apple attributes growth slowdown to sluggish economy, rumors of new products

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  • Reply 61 of 102
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    shaun, uk wrote: »
    If Apple ever fails to meet their own highly conservative estimates then they really will be in trouble. Nobody believes those estimates.

    In the past some of those estimates have been smashed by things out of Apples control. For example the crash in DRAM and Flash pricing or MS shooting itself in the foot many times over. It isn't that Apple is low balling projections it is rather that things are happening faster in the market and to their advantage than anybody expected. The near death of RIM for example is a significant factor in iPhones rise, they simply could not provide a coherent response to the surprise of many in the industry. Nokia likewise has shot themselves in the foot so many times it is pathetic.

    In many cases Apple has gotten better than expected results simply because the competition gave them so much of the market. As excutives Apple has no idea really as to how badly the excutive teams at the competition will screw up, they only really know about their products an initial conditions a month or so before the next quarter. Just as they may have predicted the future a bit today, it is still based mostly on what they know about in the last month and there hoped for product release.

    It is neither conservative nor liberal in fact there is some guess work and a lot of experience going into these forcasts. A lot can happen in three months to make the projections look like crap. This is especially the case these days where the economic outlook is shaky at best and very dynamic.

    So frankly you are full of crap when you say nobody believes those numbers. Those are the only numbers that are based on facts. The so called analyst have nothing at all that could be called fact, if they did that would most likely be illegal. All they can do is to try to survey the market and apmake projections based on that. Apple on the other hand has real data that can provide trends used for projections, it also has real knowledge of new hardware. All of these things add up to a composite that provides for real guidance. Mind you guidance for three months of activity that hasn't happened yet.

    Now look at this from the standpoint of the analysts. They get to make their predictions days before Apple releases it's numbers. If they had been doing their homework, that is surveying the market, they should have been able to predict with fair accuracy how well Apple did. Instead they didn't even come close. So why does anybody even bother with these silly assed folks? I mean really the dart board is just as reliable.
  • Reply 62 of 102
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post



    As predicted the media is writing Tim Cook's obituary already.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/07/24/steve-jobs-shoes-look-too-big-to-fill-after-apples-second-miss-under-cook/?partner=yahoofeed

    I'm curious what they think Steve Jobs would have done differently these past 10 months had he been around. I have my reservations about Cook (I think he's more of an operations guy than a product guy) but its way to early to be digging his grave.


     


    Ha! They've been burying Apple for the past 20 years. This is no different. It's all about pressuring the stock so they can buy it cheaper.

  • Reply 63 of 102
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    Again you are putting your foot in your own mouth here.
    ewan wrote: »
    No it does not sound stupid at all. Why would I go pay $1600 for a new Macbook Pro that looks exactly the same as my 2009 model.
    Oh let me see how can I count the ways:
    1. You might upgrade because you want Thunderbolt ports.
    2. Maybe you want USB 3 ports.
    3. Faster graphics might be important to you.
    4. Maybe quad core processors are needed by your work load.
    5. Maybe upgraded storage capability is important to you.
    6. Maybe all around better performance floats your boat.
    When the design does change, it will make my laptop appear outdated and I'll be forced to upgrade.
    If that is your only reason for upgrading then you are a bigger idiot than I first imagined. I mean let's get real here, who upgrades their laptop because it "looks" outdated? Frankly if you can't see the value in the new hardware then you really should stick with your current machine as you likely will never be able to leverage it as a tool anyways. If all your MBP is to you is a fashionable Miniskirt then really why even post here and bother people that use the machines constructively?
    So I am basically waiting for a new design to upgrade. And unless you are blind, the Retina Display Macbook Pro isn't a complete redesign. 
    OK if the Retina MBP isn't a complete redesign then what is it? More so what exactly do you expect in its place? That is what would a redesigned MBP really be to you?

    As a side note I see this as one of the negative side effects of Apple hardware becoming popular. It attracts a sleazy element in society that sees such up hardware as fashion symbols. As such they become status symbols for the poorer segment of society leading to theft and violence. A Mac valued as a status symbol ends up causing Apple more trouble then it is worth. As such I see posts like this just adding fuel to the fire. When one dismisses the value of a Mac as a tool and only sees it as a status symbol Apple has lost a bit of credibility. Macs end up being worn by people like Miniskirts a fashion that comes and goes with the wind.

    Frankly we as Apple users should be happy that Apple seldom changes the design of its hardware. The continual increases in sales means that they have found an underlying value equation that is of benefit and value for many users. An Apple that pursues fashion over function would be so up and down in the market that it would be of little value to investors.
  • Reply 64 of 102
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    rogifan wrote: »
    Outside of retina display why does the design need to change? What's wrong with the current design except that you might be bored with it? What does it have to do with how you use the device?

    These are good questions I'd like to see answered by this user. Let's face it if he is running a 2009 model and his only concern is what the next machine looks like he isn't leveraging that machine very much if at all. So it looks like a case of design obsession more than a user looking to improve his productivity.

    The fundamental reality here is that we are talking laptop here as such there are real constraints on what it can look like. So I have to ask the original poster this; if the new Retina machine is not a redesign of the MBP then what in the hell would be?
  • Reply 65 of 102
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Ewan View Post

    Why would I go pay $1600 for a new Macbook Pro that looks exactly the same as my 2009 model.


     


    Your fallacy is in thinking this matters at all.


     


    Quote:


     When the design does change, it will make my laptop appear outdated and I'll be forced to upgrade. [emphasis mine]





    Come off it.

  • Reply 66 of 102
    pfisherpfisher Posts: 758member


    Maybe if they had cheaper stuff and their margins were not insanely high, they would sell more Macs (and iPhones overseas).


     


    (Typing this from my MacBook Pro)

  • Reply 67 of 102
    alfiejralfiejr Posts: 1,524member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by v5v View Post


     


    What I find frustrating as someone who has invested in an Apple ecosystem is the WAIT for features others seem to bring to market so much more quickly and easily.  I'm not excited that a future iPhone may finally have 4G capability, I'm embarrassed that there STILL isn't one NOW when EVERY competitor not only already offers that, but has for a long time now.  Even *rumoured* products fall short of features other suppliers already include, like near-field RF.


     


    What the market is responding to may well be the paradigm shift that has Apple playing catch-up instead of leading.  Has ANYONE (besides fanboys) EVER actually bought an Apple product because it had a "Retina" display?  Would the time, money and attention spent pursuing that be better spent on features that make a more significant contribution to the user experience than "Oh yes, I suppose that *does* look pretty, doesn't it?"



    well gadget lovers always want the latest and greatest gizmos. so Apple's steady pace frustrates. but gadget lovers are maybe 10% of the market. the vast majority of consumers want Just Works (or otherwise, really cheap).


     


    what i notice is how Apple keeps steadily improving its Just Works (e.g., Mountain Lion which you can pick up tomorrow). the iPhone camera for example is a great little camera with great software (that is not true for most of the competition). and a lot of consumers really use it a lot and are happy as a result. more megapixels or "features" are unnecessary. they threw in Photo Booth for fun last year, and kids love it. Apple always adds some fun stuff. Siri is still a work in progress - still a beta until iOS 6 i guess. i think most people still feel weird talking to their gadgets as if they were alive. but the Just Works Facebook integration with iOS 6 is going to be a big hit with consumers.


     


    you're just going to have to deal with your impatience.

  • Reply 68 of 102
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    ewan wrote: »
    No it does not sound stupid at all. Why would I go pay $1600 for a new Macbook Pro that looks exactly the same as my 2009 model. When the design does change, it will make my laptop appear outdated and I'll be forced to upgrade. So I am basically waiting for a new design to upgrade. And unless you are blind, the Retina Display Macbook Pro isn't a complete redesign. 
    Why do you need the design to change? I can understand it with the iPhone (and maybe iPad) as those could be considered more of a fashion accessory. But why do the laptops need a complete aesthetic re-design? Just because you're bored with it?
  • Reply 69 of 102
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    wizard69 wrote: »
    These are good questions I'd like to see answered by this user. Let's face it if he is running a 2009 model and his only concern is what the next machine looks like he isn't leveraging that machine very much if at all. So it looks like a case of design obsession more than a user looking to improve his productivity.
    The fundamental reality here is that we are talking laptop here as such there are real constraints on what it can look like. So I have to ask the original poster this; if the new Retina machine is not a redesign of the MBP then what in the hell would be?
    Apple has a really cohesive design language across all their products. They're not interested in re-designing things (aesthetically) just for the sake of it. Is there something better than unibody aluminum out there right now? Would it appear more innovative if Apple had colored aluminum Macs like the iPods? To me all of this proves Apple is NOT obsessed with form over function. Or planned obsolescence as some suggest.
  • Reply 70 of 102
    shaun, ukshaun, uk Posts: 1,050member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post





    In the past some of those estimates have been smashed by things out of Apples control. For example the crash in DRAM and Flash pricing or MS shooting itself in the foot many times over. It isn't that Apple is low balling projections it is rather that things are happening faster in the market and to their advantage than anybody expected. The near death of RIM for example is a significant factor in iPhones rise, they simply could not provide a coherent response to the surprise of many in the industry. Nokia likewise has shot themselves in the foot so many times it is pathetic.

    In many cases Apple has gotten better than expected results simply because the competition gave them so much of the market. As excutives Apple has no idea really as to how badly the excutive teams at the competition will screw up, they only really know about their products an initial conditions a month or so before the next quarter. Just as they may have predicted the future a bit today, it is still based mostly on what they know about in the last month and there hoped for product release.

    It is neither conservative nor liberal in fact there is some guess work and a lot of experience going into these forcasts. A lot can happen in three months to make the projections look like crap. This is especially the case these days where the economic outlook is shaky at best and very dynamic.

    So frankly you are full of crap when you say nobody believes those numbers. Those are the only numbers that are based on facts. The so called analyst have nothing at all that could be called fact, if they did that would most likely be illegal. All they can do is to try to survey the market and apmake projections based on that. Apple on the other hand has real data that can provide trends used for projections, it also has real knowledge of new hardware. All of these things add up to a composite that provides for real guidance. Mind you guidance for three months of activity that hasn't happened yet.

    Now look at this from the standpoint of the analysts. They get to make their predictions days before Apple releases it's numbers. If they had been doing their homework, that is surveying the market, they should have been able to predict with fair accuracy how well Apple did. Instead they didn't even come close. So why does anybody even bother with these silly assed folks? I mean really the dart board is just as reliable.


     


    I think you're the one "talking crap". Apple has all the sales numbers to hand and yet they consistently under-estimate their forward sales projections. The reason they do it is so every earnings call they can come on and say "we are very happy, we beat our estimates, the future looks bright". It's a business tactic. Keep the news cycle upbeat and positive. Much like limiting the production of new products so there is always a shortage so that they get a lot of free publicity and generate a buzz around the new product.


     


    PS I don't give a s*** about the analysts estimates. I never take any notice of them. I prefer to deal in cold hard facts and actual numbers.

  • Reply 71 of 102
    shaun, ukshaun, uk Posts: 1,050member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Ewan View Post




     


     


    No it does not sound stupid at all. Why would I go pay $1600 for a new Macbook Pro that looks exactly the same as my 2009 model. When the design does change, it will make my laptop appear outdated and I'll be forced to upgrade. So I am basically waiting for a new design to upgrade. And unless you are blind, the Retina Display Macbook Pro isn't a complete redesign. 



     


    +1


     


    I don't need to upgrade but I probably would anyway if they came out with a new design or colour scheme simply because I like to change things every so often otherwise life gets very dull. I don't need a Retina Display so I'm not planning to upgrade this year, especially given the price premium for the Retina model.


     


    If they don't change the design I just keep using my current machine for a few years more until it dies and I have to upgrade. Apple relies on upgrades to keep their sales momentum going so they are the ones losing out. I might upgrade every 5 or 6 years instead of every 2 or 3 years, which means less sales for Apple.


     


    Apple used to change the design of the iPod every year, year after year, so people would buy the new one every year. That policy proved very successful and very profitable. And yet we get the same basic Mac design year after year. Redesigns stimulate sales - everyone who doesn't have their head up their backside knows that.

  • Reply 72 of 102
    rayzrayz Posts: 814member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Ewan View Post




    No it does not sound stupid at all. 



     


    Yes, yes, I'm afraid it does.


     


     


    Quote:


    No it does not sound stupid at all. Why would I go pay $1600 for a new Macbook Pro that looks exactly the same as my 2009 model. When the design does change, it will make my laptop appear outdated and I'll be forced to upgrade. 



     


    So you buy your kit based on what it looks like? My friend, you must have serious self-esteem issues. 


     


    Well, here's a tip to save money. Take your untrendy old machine and cover it in tin foil. 


     


    See? Now it's all nice and super-shiny. Think how massively cool you'll look next time you're in Starbucks,  rockin' your limited-edition Alcan Macbook

  • Reply 73 of 102
    godzillagodzilla Posts: 156member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post


     


    Does that really matter. If all the Android manufacturers collectively sell 100 million phones and Apple sells 26 million but is number one because the Android market is fragmented across many manufacturers does that make a difference.



     Oh yes it does, where it matter most. Market Share is a bragging act. PROFITS matter, and Apple has it so far ahead of Google/Android, it's a different universe. Apple's cycles are clean and precise, one phone that defines that segment of the brand. I'm not opposed to them branching into more phone/s, but I think their approach now is brilliant, and tactful. They make more MONEY because they put all their efforts into one amazing phone, and due to that, it stays relevant and even dominating for much longer than its competitors offerings. Not to mention, builds up great hype, etc.

  • Reply 74 of 102
    godzillagodzilla Posts: 156member


    The real crime here is Wall Street, period. These IDIOT "ANAL-ISTS" guess random numbers, and when Apple doesn't hit it due to having NO obligation to fill an IRRELEVANT number by some empty suit who probably couldn't get a job in Apple's mailroom, Investors get punished. This was a great quarter, with a great excuse as to why it wasn't a better quarter. The money is simply being redistributed to upcoming quarters and products, i.e people are waiting cash in hand for Apple products.... they're just timing it due to being so involved in the brand, they know when what's coming when.



    It's criminal how Analysts get away with this stuff.

  • Reply 75 of 102
    rayzrayz Posts: 814member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Godzilla View Post


     Oh yes it does, where it matter most. Market Share is a bragging act. PROFITS matter, and Apple has it so far ahead of Google/Android, it's a different universe. Apple's cycles are clean and precise, one phone that defines that segment of the brand. I'm not opposed to them branching into more phone/s, but I think their approach now is brilliant, and tactful. They make more MONEY because they put all their efforts into one amazing phone, and due to that, it stays relevant and even dominating for much longer than its competitors offerings. Not to mention, builds up great hype, etc.



     


    That's the thing.


     


    Apple's share of the PC market is tiny, but how many of the other thousands of OEMs are making anywhere near as much money selling PCs?


     


    Yes, looking at the figures collectively is great, but it doesn't matter to HP, or Dell or anyone else. What they care about are their own sales and their own margins on those sales.


     


    Market share is nowhere near as important as profit. If Jobs hadn't learned that then Apple would have failed.

  • Reply 76 of 102
    rayzrayz Posts: 814member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post


     


    +1


     


    I don't need to upgrade but I probably would anyway if they came out with a new design or colour scheme simply because I like to change things every so often otherwise life gets very dull. I don't need a Retina Display so I'm not planning to upgrade this year, especially given the price premium for the Retina model.


     


    If they don't change the design I just keep using my current machine for a few years more until it dies and I have to upgrade. Apple relies on upgrades to keep their sales momentum going so they are the ones losing out. I might upgrade every 5 or 6 years instead of every 2 or 3 years, which means less sales for Apple.


     


    Apple used to change the design of the iPod every year, year after year, so people would buy the new one every year. That policy proved very successful and very profitable. And yet we get the same basic Mac design year after year. Redesigns stimulate sales - everyone who doesn't have their head up their backside knows that.



     


    Then why are Apple's Mac sales still increasing?

  • Reply 77 of 102
    adybadyb Posts: 205member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post



    Despite posting $8.8 billion in profits and selling a record 17 million iPads, Apple's third quarter of fiscal 2012 is seen by the market as a disappointment.




     


    I saw this economic briefing this morning:


     


    "The markets are extremely anxious that Spain will need a full bailout and as the 4th largest economy in the Euro Zone that would have significant ramifications. Over in Greece meanwhile, and wait for this, are you sitting down?... it is looking likely that they will fall short of their bailout terms. Yesterday saw German coalition members calling for Greece to exit stating that it could recover and regain competitiveness more quickly outside the EuroZone (and we don’t want to hand over any more money!) Overnight Japan posted falling export numbers recording its’ first decline in 4 months reflecting the European crisis, a slowdown in China and a drop in domestic demand. Japan’s economy is the world’s 3rd largest behind that of the US and China. It is still due to out-perform most other developed countries this year, but domestic appetite is a key factor in this and so future activity will be monitored closely."


     


    Against this backdrop, is it that bad a performance?

  • Reply 78 of 102
    fairthropefairthrope Posts: 249member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rayz View Post


     


    Then why are Apple's Mac sales still increasing?



    There is still a bit left among those who actually had their Mac died and have to upgrade regardless, some more who came away from Windows world, fashionitas bring up the rear.


     


    Sales are increasing, but now mainly through Apple taking a bigger slice from a shrinking pie.

  • Reply 79 of 102
    fairthropefairthrope Posts: 249member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post


     


    PS I don't give a s*** about the analysts estimates. I never take any notice of them. I prefer to deal in cold hard facts and actual numbers.



    So do yo think Tim take this Second Depression into account? Jobs might told his tream to prepare for Category 2 economic storm, but now he are hit with Category 5.


     


    Willing buyers with fistful of cash queueing outside the Manhattan Cube from 2007 to 2010 do not have that cash anymore. The Chinese having to tightening the belt, numbers are good buy the growth is slower now. And Brazil may or may not be a hot air.

  • Reply 80 of 102
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Fairthrope View Post

    So do yo think Tim take this Second Depression into account?


     


    This isn't a depression. A depression will be what happens in the spring after food prices skyrocket this winter because of a combination of two summers in a row where the corn crop was anemic and the weather we're expected to get in the coming months (I've heard "like the winters of the late '70s" from multiple sources).

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