See, all the people who claim it's such a huge gain change it up so it's not just 2% in a day (which is small). It's always oh gee 2% every day for a year is really large so 2% in one day is large! Or Apple is up so much this YEAR it's really soared! Wrong! 2% in one day, SMALL gain.

Give it up. 2% per day for a year is unsustainable even for aapl. Anything unsustainable is soaring in my book.

Give it up. 2% per day for a year is unsustainable even for aapl. Anything unsustainable is soaring in my book.

Not gonna give it up. Your definition is ridiculous. If Apple were to go up 1% per day for a year that would work out to over 1100% change in a year. So is a 1% gain SOARING?

Let's cut it in half. 0.5%. That would work out to 350% gain. Is that sustainable?

Not to mention how MISERABLE you'll be when AAPL PLUNGES tomorrow (like it does 20% of the time in the past year).

AAPL moved more than 2% 1 out of every 5 days in the past year. If your standard for SOARING (or PLUNGING) is something that happens 1 day a week, then more power to you, but you're wrong.

Not gonna give it up. Your definition is ridiculous. If Apple were to go up 1% per day for a year that would work out to over 1100% change in a year. So is a 1% soaring?

Not gonna give it up. Your definition is ridiculous. If Apple were to go up 1% per day for a year that would work out to over 1100% change in a year. So is a 1% gain SOARING?

Let's cut it in half. 0.5%. That would work out to 350% gain. Is that sustainable?

Your math is off and probably the source of your confusion. If you invest 1000 tomorrow expecting the following compound interest

0.5% compounded daily for 1 year you would have $6174.65 or 517% apr
1% compounded daily for 1 year you would have $37783.43 or 3678% apr
2% compounded daily for 1 year you would have $1377408.29 or 137640% apr

Your checking account gives you, 1% apr if you are lucky. Economic growth if we are lucky is 5% apr.

You are crazy If you think that there is a place where you can invest $1000 and be a millionaire in 1 year.

Yes. Apple is Soaring and 0.5% daily for a year is unsustainable.

What's your source for this? Can you share that with us?

I did it, just for fun, and since it's quite easy to do (you can go into Yahoo Finance, download the past year's -- i.e., 250 trading days of -- daily stock price data into an Excel spreadsheet, and take it from there).

I did it, just for fun, and since it's quite easy to do (you can go into Yahoo Finance, download the past year's -- i.e., 250 trading days of -- daily stock price data into an Excel spreadsheet, and take it from there).

Here are the facts for AAPL:

Average daily return 8/29/11 - 8/27/11: 0.24%

Median: 0.11%

Min: ?4.41%

Max +8.50%

Stdev: 1.68%

# days greater than 2%: 25 (10%)

# days greater than 1%: 75 (30%)

# days < 0: 114 (46%)

# days ? 0: 135 (54%)

Thanks for doing that. I think today's gain was close to 1.9%, so based on your numbers, I estimate that today's gain was in the top 12% or so. I think cameronj was saying we have 2% gains in 1 out of every 5 days, i.e. in 20% of the days. So it seems like he was exaggerating by a factor of 2, but not by an order of magnitude like I suspected.

I did it, just for fun, and since it's quite easy to do (you can go into Yahoo Finance, download the past year's -- i.e., 250 trading days of -- daily stock price data into an Excel spreadsheet, and take it from there).

Here are the facts for AAPL: Average daily return 8/29/11 - 8/27/12: 0.24% Median: 0.11% Min: ?4.41% Max +8.50% Stdev: 1.68% # days greater than 2%: 25 (10%) # days greater than 1%: 75 (30%) # days < 0: 114 (46%) # days ? 0: 135 (54%)

$1000 invested with 0.24% daily interest would be worth $2398.76 or 139.8% return. I hope my stock will be worth 2.3 times more than it is now. Or today's stock will close at $1616 per share. This daily return seems difficult but possible.

Doesn't matter what the base price is. Whether it's 2000 cents or merely 600 dollars. Percentage moves are all that matters when considering how "big" a move is. If you invest $6000 and buy 10 shares, $120 is not a lot. If you invest $600,000 and buy 1000 shares, $12,000 is not a lot.

2% is not "soaring"

but if you invested $6000 at $20 a share (300 shares) what 10 years ago, and today those $300 share just went up another 3600. It's a lot;-).

or

$12 Billion in 8 hours of trading... that's growing 4 RIMMs, one Computer Associates, almost an entire Adobe, or about 2/3rds of a DELL (can we buy dell, close it down and give the money to the shareholders, can we Daddy, can we, PULEASE?????)

... in just one day. It's a big move.

If you're on top of Mount everest, and there's an Eagle flying 600' Feet over the summit... would you say it's 'not that high?' well that 2% higher than the LARGEST MOUNTAIN IN THE WORLD. I'd say it's soaring.

you're saying it's relative to itself. I'm saying relative to the average schmoe in the market. It Soared.

If you're on top of Mount everest, and there's an Eagle flying 600' Feet over the summit... would you say it's 'not that high?' well that 2% higher than the LARGEST MOUNTAIN IN THE WORLD. I'd say it's soaring.

Very good analogy IMHO. I wonder if anyone on top of Everest has looked up and seen any kind of bird? I kind of doubt it.

Thanks for doing that. I think today's gain was close to 1.9%, so based on your numbers, I estimate that today's gain was in the top 12% or so. I think cameronj was saying we have 2% gains in 1 out of every 5 days, i.e. in 20% of the days. So it seems like he was exaggerating by a factor of 2, but not by an order of magnitude like I suspected.

Thanks again for that spreadsheet magic!

you have to account for when it comes back down, too

look carefully at what he stated: "AAPL moved more than 2% 1 out of every 5 days in the past year.

that's 10% of the time up and 10% of the time back down

Thanks for doing that. I think today's gain was close to 1.9%, so based on your numbers, I estimate that today's gain was in the top 12% or so. I think cameronj was saying we have 2% gains in 1 out of every 5 days, i.e. in 20% of the days. So it seems like he was exaggerating by a factor of 2, but not by an order of magnitude like I suspected.

Thanks again for that spreadsheet magic!

I did the exact same thing (same source) but I suspect the difference in our numbers is that I included declines of 2% as well as gains of 2%. Did you (Anant) include the declines as well?

Interesting (not surprising) delrey that you would assume the person you disagreed with exaggerated his numbers by a factor of 10 but not question the numbers of the person that you thought you agreed with. I guarantee the difference is accounted for by the exclusion of 2% drops, for which there is no reason in this discussion. We are talking magnitude of moves, not only increases. A 2% move is VERY common and is certainly not of the rare order that you would want to bust out the superlatives.

You can do it yourself - the key formula is =IF(E247/E246>1,E247/E246,E246/E247) - E246 is yesterdays close, and E247 is today's. With the data from Yahoo finance you will find it easy.

I did it, just for fun, and since it's quite easy to do (you can go into Yahoo Finance, download the past year's -- i.e., 250 trading days of -- daily stock price data into an Excel spreadsheet, and take it from there).

Here are the facts for AAPL: Average daily return 8/29/11 - 8/27/12: 0.24% Median: 0.11% Min: ?4.41% Max +8.50% Stdev: 1.68% # days greater than 2%: 25 (10%) # days greater than 1%: 75 (30%) # days < 0: 114 (46%) # days ? 0: 135 (54%)

Thanks for bringing actual numbers into the discussion.

So a 2% gain is something that happened for Apple approximately 1 day out of every 10 in the past year. Since it happens 10% of the time, I can't consider it to be anything really exceptional.

Whether you call it 'soars' or not is up to you. But the facts are that it's not a really exceptional event.

Your math is off and probably the source of your confusion. If you invest 1000 tomorrow expecting the following compound interest

0.5% compounded daily for 1 year you would have $6174.65 or 517% apr

1% compounded daily for 1 year you would have $37783.43 or 3678% apr

2% compounded daily for 1 year you would have $1377408.29 or 137640% apr

Your checking account gives you, 1% apr if you are lucky. Economic growth if we are lucky is 5% apr.

You are crazy If you think that there is a place where you can invest $1000 and be a millionaire in 1 year.

Yes. Apple is Soaring and 0.5% daily for a year is unsustainable.

No clue where you got those numbers from. I simply created a spreadsheet with 1 at the top and the second row = A1*1.01, and copied that down 250 times (to account for 5 days a week instead of 7). How you ended up with only 1/3 of the gain I did I am totally unaware. Let me know how you came to the 1% gain number like you did.

By your logic even a 0.1% gain is an unsustainable SOAR because nothing can grow at any exponential rate, no matter how small, forever.

Thanks for bringing actual numbers into the discussion.

So a 2% gain is something that happened for Apple approximately 1 day out of every 10 in the past year. Since it happens 10% of the time, I can't consider it to be anything really exceptional.

Whether you call it 'soars' or not is up to you. But the facts are that it's not a really exceptional event.

Thank you (despite using the wrong numbers - a 2% CHANGE happens 20% of the time, while a 2% GAIN happens half of those).

What about the fact that global economic growth appears to have peaked? The only question is how far down does it go before it starts going up again... and if Europe can't draw a line under this crap, it's going to keep suffering. Businesses and markets hate nothing more than uncertainty, and Europe can't seem to stop broadcasting uncertainty. The USA can't be propped up by stimulus forever. Eventually there has to be real demand, and that's been missing for a long time now. You keep feeding the patient Ecstasy and eventually the brain stops making its own happiness.

As I said, the EU never had a chance. Not the way it was formulated. You simply can't have an economic and monetary union without also having a strong central governing authority. The mess they're in right now has as much to do with that than it has with the overall economic situation. Normally, countries like Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy would simply devalue their currency, and get over it. But that can't be done now, and that bringing the whole house of cards down. Germany isn't helping. But it's interesting to note that everything they have been doing, and refusing to do has helped them, and hurt the other countries in the union. Whether that's intentional or not, I don't know, but it's been working out that way.

I'm less worried about what's happening here. Unless Romney gets elected, that is. The stimulus packages are pretty much gone. Good news on housing today. It's though that it has finally turned the corner. As housing is such an important part of our economy, that will strengthen the entire thing.

2% in one day is a pretty good day for Apple indeed, especially with the market going down a bit.

It is. What some people don't seem to understand is that movement in the markets is more psychological than monetary. I just got, as I'm writing this, a notification that the markets are down, because they are taking " a breather". If that's not psychological, I don't know what is!

Almost every day, we can see articles in the financial press about how a stock has "jumped", even though it's moved one point. It's almost all psychology. So a 2% rise in one day, particularly when it all came upon opening—a straight line up on the chart, can be described as a leap, or having soared at the opening. Not so unusual a description, even though some don't like to read it.

## Comments

82memberGive it up. 2% per day for a year is unsustainable even for aapl. Anything unsustainable is soaring in my book.

376memberQuote:

Originally Posted by

ShAdOwXPRagree but just wait for iphone 5 and ipad mini announcements it will rocket to 730+

iPhone 4S sales for this quarter probably won't be able to push it that high.

2,357memberQuote:

Originally Posted by

mmmdoughnutsGive it up. 2% per day for a year is unsustainable even for aapl. Anything unsustainable is soaring in my book.

Not gonna give it up. Your definition is ridiculous. If Apple were to go up 1% per day for a year that would work out to over 1100% change in a year. So is a 1% gain SOARING?

Let's cut it in half. 0.5%. That would work out to 350% gain. Is that sustainable?

Not to mention how MISERABLE you'll be when AAPL PLUNGES tomorrow (like it does 20% of the time in the past year).

AAPL moved more than 2% 1 out of every 5 days in the past year. If your standard for SOARING (or PLUNGING) is something that happens 1 day a week, then more power to you, but you're wrong.

333memberQuote:

Originally Posted by

cameronjAAPL moved more than 2% 1 out of every 5 days in the past year.

What's your source for this? Can you share that with us?

82memberYes. Yes it is.

1,037memberQuote:

Originally Posted by

Apple ][Well, many things are his fault. But why the need to take a dig at Fox News in a topic that has nothing to do with it?

I bet that Obama losing is going to be a great thing for the stock market and the economy in general. I can hardly wait.

I purposely mentioned FoxNews because I wanted to see who loves FoxNews knowing that some one would bring that part up. LOL.

82memberYour math is off and probably the source of your confusion. If you invest 1000 tomorrow expecting the following compound interest

0.5% compounded daily for 1 year you would have $6174.65 or 517% apr

1% compounded daily for 1 year you would have $37783.43 or 3678% apr

2% compounded daily for 1 year you would have $1377408.29 or 137640% apr

Your checking account gives you, 1% apr if you are lucky. Economic growth if we are lucky is 5% apr.

You are crazy If you think that there is a place where you can invest $1000 and be a millionaire in 1 year.

Yes. Apple is Soaring and 0.5% daily for a year is unsustainable.

20,305memberQuote:

Originally Posted by

delreyjonesWhat's your source for this? Can you share that with us?

I did it, just for fun, and since it's quite easy to do (you can go into Yahoo Finance, download the past year's -- i.e., 250 trading days of -- daily stock price data into an Excel spreadsheet, and take it from there).

Here are the facts for AAPL:

Average daily return 8/29/11 - 8/27/12:0.24%Median:0.11%Min: ?4.41%Max+8.50%Stdev:1.68%# days greater than 2%:25 (10%)# days greater than 1%:75 (30%)# days < 0:114 (46%)# days ? 0:135 (54%)9,233memberQuote:

Originally Posted by

tylerk36I purposely mentioned FoxNews because I wanted to see who loves FoxNews knowing that some one would bring that part up. LOL.

I'm not ashamed to state that I'd rather watch Fox instead of certain other news channels, which I'm not going to bother to mention.

333memberQuote:

Originally Posted by

anantksundaramI did it, just for fun, and since it's quite easy to do (you can go into Yahoo Finance, download the past year's -- i.e., 250 trading days of -- daily stock price data into an Excel spreadsheet, and take it from there).

Here are the facts for AAPL:

Average daily return 8/29/11 - 8/27/11:0.24%Median:0.11%Min: ?4.41%Max+8.50%Stdev:1.68%# days greater than 2%:25 (10%)# days greater than 1%:75 (30%)# days < 0:114 (46%)# days ? 0:135 (54%)Thanks for doing that. I think today's gain was close to 1.9%, so based on your numbers, I estimate that today's gain was in the top 12% or so. I think cameronj was saying we have 2% gains in 1 out of every 5 days, i.e. in 20% of the days. So it seems like he was exaggerating by a factor of 2, but not by an order of magnitude like I suspected.

Thanks again for that spreadsheet magic!

82member$1000 invested with 0.24% daily interest would be worth $2398.76 or 139.8% return. I hope my stock will be worth 2.3 times more than it is now. Or today's stock will close at $1616 per share. This daily return seems difficult but possible.

2,081memberQuote:

Originally Posted by

cameronjDoesn't matter what the base price is. Whether it's 2000 cents or merely 600 dollars. Percentage moves are all that matters when considering how "big" a move is. If you invest $6000 and buy 10 shares, $120 is not a lot. If you invest $600,000 and buy 1000 shares, $12,000 is not a lot.

2% is not "soaring"

but if you invested $6000 at $20 a share (300 shares) what 10 years ago, and today those $300 share just went up another 3600. It's a lot;-).

or

$12 Billion in 8 hours of trading... that's growing 4 RIMMs, one Computer Associates, almost an entire Adobe, or about 2/3rds of a DELL (can we buy dell, close it down and give the money to the shareholders, can we Daddy, can we, PULEASE?????)

... in just one day. It's a big move.

If you're on top of Mount everest, and there's an Eagle flying 600' Feet over the summit... would you say it's 'not that high?' well that 2% higher than the LARGEST MOUNTAIN IN THE WORLD. I'd say it's soaring.

you're saying it's relative to itself. I'm saying relative to the average schmoe in the market. It Soared.

333memberQuote:

Originally Posted by

TheOtherGeoffIf you're on top of Mount everest, and there's an Eagle flying 600' Feet over the summit... would you say it's 'not that high?' well that 2% higher than the LARGEST MOUNTAIN IN THE WORLD. I'd say it's soaring.

Very good analogy IMHO. I wonder if anyone on top of Everest has looked up and seen any kind of bird? I kind of doubt it.

66memberQuote:

Originally Posted by

delreyjonesThanks for doing that. I think today's gain was close to 1.9%, so based on your numbers, I estimate that today's gain was in the top 12% or so. I think cameronj was saying we have 2% gains in 1 out of every 5 days, i.e. in 20% of the days. So it seems like he was exaggerating by a factor of 2, but not by an order of magnitude like I suspected.

Thanks again for that spreadsheet magic!

you have to account for when it comes back down, too

look carefully at what he stated: "AAPL moved more than 2% 1 out of every 5 days in the past year.

that's 10% of the time up and 10% of the time back down

2,357memberQuote:

Originally Posted by

delreyjonesThanks for doing that. I think today's gain was close to 1.9%, so based on your numbers, I estimate that today's gain was in the top 12% or so. I think cameronj was saying we have 2% gains in 1 out of every 5 days, i.e. in 20% of the days. So it seems like he was exaggerating by a factor of 2, but not by an order of magnitude like I suspected.

Thanks again for that spreadsheet magic!

I did the exact same thing (same source) but I suspect the difference in our numbers is that I included declines of 2% as well as gains of 2%. Did you (Anant) include the declines as well?

Interesting (not surprising) delrey that you would assume the person you disagreed with exaggerated his numbers by a factor of 10 but not question the numbers of the person that you thought you agreed with. I guarantee the difference is accounted for by the exclusion of 2% drops, for which there is no reason in this discussion. We are talking magnitude of moves, not only increases. A 2% move is VERY common and is certainly not of the rare order that you would want to bust out the superlatives.

You can do it yourself - the key formula is =IF(E247/E246>1,E247/E246,E246/E247) - E246 is yesterdays close, and E247 is today's. With the data from Yahoo finance you will find it easy.

10,473memberThanks for bringing actual numbers into the discussion.

So a 2% gain is something that happened for Apple approximately 1 day out of every 10 in the past year. Since it happens 10% of the time, I can't consider it to be anything really exceptional.

Whether you call it 'soars' or not is up to you. But the facts are that it's not a really exceptional event.

2,357memberQuote:

Originally Posted by

mmmdoughnutsYour math is off and probably the source of your confusion. If you invest 1000 tomorrow expecting the following compound interest

0.5% compounded daily for 1 year you would have $6174.65 or 517% apr

1% compounded daily for 1 year you would have $37783.43 or 3678% apr

2% compounded daily for 1 year you would have $1377408.29 or 137640% apr

Your checking account gives you, 1% apr if you are lucky. Economic growth if we are lucky is 5% apr.

You are crazy If you think that there is a place where you can invest $1000 and be a millionaire in 1 year.

Yes. Apple is Soaring and 0.5% daily for a year is unsustainable.

No clue where you got those numbers from. I simply created a spreadsheet with 1 at the top and the second row = A1*1.01, and copied that down 250 times (to account for 5 days a week instead of 7). How you ended up with only 1/3 of the gain I did I am totally unaware. Let me know how you came to the 1% gain number like you did.

By your logic even a 0.1% gain is an unsustainable SOAR because nothing can grow at any exponential rate, no matter how small, forever.

2,357memberQuote:

Originally Posted by

jragostaThanks for bringing actual numbers into the discussion.

So a 2% gain is something that happened for Apple approximately 1 day out of every 10 in the past year. Since it happens 10% of the time, I can't consider it to be anything really exceptional.

Whether you call it 'soars' or not is up to you. But the facts are that it's not a really exceptional event.

Thank you (despite using the wrong numbers - a 2% CHANGE happens 20% of the time, while a 2% GAIN happens half of those).

33,237memberAs I said, the EU never had a chance. Not the way it was formulated. You simply can't have an economic and monetary union without also having a strong central governing authority. The mess they're in right now has as much to do with that than it has with the overall economic situation. Normally, countries like Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy would simply devalue their currency, and get over it. But that can't be done now, and that bringing the whole house of cards down. Germany isn't helping. But it's interesting to note that everything they have been doing, and refusing to do has helped them, and hurt the other countries in the union. Whether that's intentional or not, I don't know, but it's been working out that way.

I'm less worried about what's happening here. Unless Romney gets elected, that is. The stimulus packages are pretty much gone. Good news on housing today. It's though that it has finally turned the corner. As housing is such an important part of our economy, that will strengthen the entire thing.

33,237memberIt is. What some people don't seem to understand is that movement in the markets is more psychological than monetary. I just got, as I'm writing this, a notification that the markets are down, because they are taking " a breather". If that's not psychological, I don't know what is!

Almost every day, we can see articles in the financial press about how a stock has "jumped", even though it's moved one point. It's almost all psychology. So a 2% rise in one day, particularly when it all came upon opening—a straight line up on the chart, can be described as a leap, or having soared at the opening. Not so unusual a description, even though some don't like to read it.