Whether you agree or not on AAPL's direction, it'd be good to back up your argument with actual data. Zaky does this with some P/E analysis and earnings.
If you don't believe it, don't cop out with some lame personal attack or "law of large numbers" stupidity. I suppose Berkshire class A at $100K pps is defying the law of large #s? PPS means nothing by itself unless you account for share dilution and market cap. Market cap by itself means nothing unless you account for at least some fundamentals like cash flow, future earnings&growth, and book/enterprise value, and importantly, the actual products being sold into the particular market (e.g. smartphones or feature phones). To say that no company can grow b/c it looks big is just ignorance.
As for me, I'll gladly do a double of my money in 2013...frankly, uneducated bears will just make the short-term pricing that much better.
Andy Zacky is usually full of shit though. Long term correct, but with suspicious short term timing. The fact that he say buy now, makes me think it will hit the 500's before it hits $1k
No, it just means he has filled up his portfolio for this gyration... which seems to be what most of the pros have done over the past 3 trading days. That said, I don't believe in $1,000 in 12 months; it is possible in 24 if the dividend keeps increasing, but I think we are looking more like 30 months. 18% average annual return without any leverage.
Of course Apple is going to $1000 and this could be the last time to buy. If you have been following the guy Zaky his has called the exact bottom within a week at least twice in the last 2 years. He called $530 and $570 this year. I went all in in the last 2 weeks. This correction is scary but it happens every year just look at the charts!
$1000 will happen when Apple is selling TVs, home automation systems, etc... They've nearly reached market saturation, Android, Windows 8, and even fringe OSes like BB10, Mozilla and Jolla OS will start to chip away at their market share.
Apple has in no way reached market saturation. They are in early days in China and haven't really done anything in India yet. You can use the total number of cell phones sold as the new baseline potential, considering mature markets show upwards of 50% of the cell phone market now going to smartphones (and growing). Tablets are still in their infancy, and Apple has the dominant product in that space. Even Macs have been in a constant growth trend in market share (and, until the last quarter, in overall units).
Once upon a time no company was worth $600bn until MSFT suddenly was. Even with a gradually compression of AAPL's PE multiple, and even that seems to have stabilized in the 14-17x range now, to argue that $1000 is impossible denies the realities of earnings and how stocks are priced over the long term.
The law of large numbers is an irrelevant argument. If AAPL earns $60/share - up 60% from current numbers and entirely realistic based on current growth rates - then the stock will trade at $1,000. That's math, not some fabulist's dream.
To argue that Zaky is "....full of s**t..." betrays ignorance of his track record and a poor education.
Did you even read the article? Matching the production of iOS devices from all of fiscal 2012 in the first 2 quarters of fiscal 2013. Why make more new products when you can sell more of the same products to more people? Zaky was being conservative, $1000 by April is very possible.
Have waited for Andy's incredible BUY recommendations since I bot on his third call and have profited handsomely. His arguments are backed up with some pretty compelling data unlike some of the Doug Kass types who just blah blah with no arguments at all except for "the iPhone 5 is too light and seems a toy" - now that is something you can trade with, right? Am buying all the Jan 700-750 spreads I can, before this rocket takes off!
MSFT peaked and plateaued many years ago, and even as a slow growth company, it is at a P/E of 14.5 now. AAPL has not peaked and will have room to grow and yet it is at a P/E lower than 14.5. AAPL still has quite a bit of runway to grow. Earnings growth next year can definitely support a price of 1000.
Those who buy now will look back in 6-12 months and be very happy! Those who sit on the sideline will regret it next year.
Awesome analysis! Much better than the baseless articles written by people that have questionable motives regarding the share price of Apple. Great work again!
Apple has in no way reached market saturation. They are in early days in China and haven't really done anything in India yet. You can use the total number of cell phones sold as the new baseline potential, considering mature markets show upwards of 50% of the cell phone market now going to smartphones (and growing). Tablets are still in their infancy, and Apple has the dominant product in that space. Even Macs have been in a constant growth trend in market share (and, until the last quarter, in overall units).
In mature markets they have. Emerging markets follow the trends in mature markets, albeit a few years later.
I spend time in 3rd world 'developing' economies. Down there Blackberries are still the biggest deal, with iPhones and Android phones becoming the 'new' thing. When Apple becomes too ubiquitous to be 'cool', you better believe they'll be ditching the devices.
Not to mention, the functionality of Apple devices is pathetic outside of the US. For instance, in Canada (where the average consumer has a hell of a lot more disposable income than the US, where the average wages are higher, as is our standard of living, and the prices of pretty much everything) Siri had basically no location functionality until recently. We still buy alot of them, but this won't last forever.
This extreme bullish 'Apple will dominate everything' attitude is very short-sighted, and unrealistic. Right now Foxconn is telling Apple it needs a better deal - Foxconn is being squeezed by Apple and the Chinese government. I don't know if you invest in Asian stocks, but I do. I've seen Foxconn's quarterly reports.
Apple's growth will slow down, the market IS getting saturated, and their margins are about to get squeezed. I'm not saying the stock will tank, or that Apple will fail, just that, without new categories of product, Apple's ceiling will likely be around the 750-800 mark.
P.S. - look at my prediction a few days ago in the next most recent thread...
$1000 a share seems large to those who can not see the future of Apple. The law of large numbers always makes me laugh. It seems large until it happens, then what? Oh yea, the next large number. Zaky puts forth strong analysis for future earnings and a reasonable PE of 15. With the product lineup, the stores, China Mobile coming, the entire eco-system; if you can't see the growth.....well you are going to miss a great ride.
The negative comments here are very literally insane. Zaky is full of s*&%?? Andy has repeatedly made bottom calls on AAPL that have proven to be perfectly accurate. Perfectly. Not sometimes, or usually. All of his public buy ratings for AAPL and their corresponding price targets have come true within the time he called for. Someone even said Andy is, "Long term correct, but with suspicious short term timing." What?? If anyone is day-trading Andy's daily comments, it's only their own fault for losing money that way. He only ever has made public long-term calls that have repeatedly (and again, perfectly) been spot on. Bet on AAPL going to 500 before 1000... good luck with that.
Thank you, Andy, for another fantastic write up. If all we ever did was capitalize on your handful of public bottom calls for AAPL we would all be very, very wealthy indeed.
We all know that this stock is manipulated by the Wall Street pros. But if you put your money in when the stock is down, the law of large numbers is what you will see in your bank account. The pros have always tried to scare people to take their money, don't be manipulated!
I've been riding my $14 pre-split AAPL since Steve returned to Apple. Andy Zaky has been my guiding light for years. I haven't sold because I believed in what Andy has said. It may not always happen exactly as Andy says, but if Andy says it's going up it does. You don't have to play the options or short term game with AAPL. Just buy and hold like I did. Here's the math: 1,000 shares at $14 = 2,000 shares at $7 post split with a cost of $1,400. Multiply 2,000 x the current share value to see why AAPL is a great investment. Do any of you really think Apple is going to stop delivering? Just hold a 5, or watch what happens on the 23rd.
Apple stock will certainly go up a bit from here. However a 60% run in 12 months to $1000? Not likely, particularly in this market. P/E arguments have been made for why the stock is cheap numerous times over the last 2 years, it's refuted all the time and he starts to admit it above and then quietly shift to opinion. Apple will need a new product or 2 (and I don't mean a mini version of a current one...) to break $1000. Hedge accordingly.
After reading thataveragejoe's post, just for the hell of it, I clicked on the 1 year bar on Apple to see how much it was up the last 12 months, year to date. It was 53%. So looks to me like a 60% run in 12 months isn't all that unusual for Apple. I kind of get the feeling "joe" didn't really bother to read the article since he's just repeating the vague bear case which basically amounts to "$1,000 is too much." Really? Why? Apple is just getting started. Investing in Apple is like investing in the Industrial Revolution. $1000? Try $5000.
What's stopping those of us from buying at 1,000/share when we once considered the $350-600 and missed out.. is that it is unlikely Apple will go up much more from here. It's borderline unheard of. At some point, they WILL reach a plateau.. it's the law of large numbers. And 1,000/share is QUITE a large number.
Apple is still growing so why shouldn't the stock continue to grow with it?
As for the actual number, it doesn't mean anything between stocks unless you actually account for the other values that determine that number.
Berkshire Hathaway is currently going for $134,670 a share, but that means nothing relative to Apple.
When you can keep your wits about you when all others are loosing theirs, the world and all that is in it, is yours. That's Andy Zaky..... he keeps his wits and helps others keep theirs. When everyone jumped on the bandwagon that Aapl is done....... where was Andy? Telling people not to panic, that aapl is just taking a wall street managed breather and it WILL do it's thing and be back.... I have no doubts..... buy low..... well, you know the rest.
Andy full of shit? S-T inaccurate? Did you read today's article? Andy called the lows multiple times in the last several years. The PPS gains after his "Buy" calls have been outstanding. A couple of examples: "Buy" call when the stock hit $363 in November 2011. AAPL went on a run to $644 after that low, peaking in April 2012. 77% PPS gain in 4-1/2 months. Another "Buy" in May 2012 when the stock corrected down to $520. AAPL ran up to $705 in Sept. 2012, before entering another S-T correction. A 36% gain in 4 months.
Comments
Whether you agree or not on AAPL's direction, it'd be good to back up your argument with actual data. Zaky does this with some P/E analysis and earnings.
If you don't believe it, don't cop out with some lame personal attack or "law of large numbers" stupidity. I suppose Berkshire class A at $100K pps is defying the law of large #s? PPS means nothing by itself unless you account for share dilution and market cap. Market cap by itself means nothing unless you account for at least some fundamentals like cash flow, future earnings&growth, and book/enterprise value, and importantly, the actual products being sold into the particular market (e.g. smartphones or feature phones). To say that no company can grow b/c it looks big is just ignorance.
As for me, I'll gladly do a double of my money in 2013...frankly, uneducated bears will just make the short-term pricing that much better.
No, it just means he has filled up his portfolio for this gyration... which seems to be what most of the pros have done over the past 3 trading days. That said, I don't believe in $1,000 in 12 months; it is possible in 24 if the dividend keeps increasing, but I think we are looking more like 30 months. 18% average annual return without any leverage.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeb85
$1000 will happen when Apple is selling TVs, home automation systems, etc... They've nearly reached market saturation, Android, Windows 8, and even fringe OSes like BB10, Mozilla and Jolla OS will start to chip away at their market share.
Apple has in no way reached market saturation. They are in early days in China and haven't really done anything in India yet. You can use the total number of cell phones sold as the new baseline potential, considering mature markets show upwards of 50% of the cell phone market now going to smartphones (and growing). Tablets are still in their infancy, and Apple has the dominant product in that space. Even Macs have been in a constant growth trend in market share (and, until the last quarter, in overall units).
The law of large numbers is an irrelevant argument. If AAPL earns $60/share - up 60% from current numbers and entirely realistic based on current growth rates - then the stock will trade at $1,000. That's math, not some fabulist's dream.
To argue that Zaky is "....full of s**t..." betrays ignorance of his track record and a poor education.
Did you even read the article? Matching the production of iOS devices from all of fiscal 2012 in the first 2 quarters of fiscal 2013. Why make more new products when you can sell more of the same products to more people? Zaky was being conservative, $1000 by April is very possible.
MSFT peaked and plateaued many years ago, and even as a slow growth company, it is at a P/E of 14.5 now. AAPL has not peaked and will have room to grow and yet it is at a P/E lower than 14.5. AAPL still has quite a bit of runway to grow. Earnings growth next year can definitely support a price of 1000.
Those who buy now will look back in 6-12 months and be very happy! Those who sit on the sideline will regret it next year.
Awesome analysis! Much better than the baseless articles written by people that have questionable motives regarding the share price of Apple. Great work again!
Quote:
Originally Posted by focher
Apple has in no way reached market saturation. They are in early days in China and haven't really done anything in India yet. You can use the total number of cell phones sold as the new baseline potential, considering mature markets show upwards of 50% of the cell phone market now going to smartphones (and growing). Tablets are still in their infancy, and Apple has the dominant product in that space. Even Macs have been in a constant growth trend in market share (and, until the last quarter, in overall units).
In mature markets they have. Emerging markets follow the trends in mature markets, albeit a few years later.
I spend time in 3rd world 'developing' economies. Down there Blackberries are still the biggest deal, with iPhones and Android phones becoming the 'new' thing. When Apple becomes too ubiquitous to be 'cool', you better believe they'll be ditching the devices.
Not to mention, the functionality of Apple devices is pathetic outside of the US. For instance, in Canada (where the average consumer has a hell of a lot more disposable income than the US, where the average wages are higher, as is our standard of living, and the prices of pretty much everything) Siri had basically no location functionality until recently. We still buy alot of them, but this won't last forever.
This extreme bullish 'Apple will dominate everything' attitude is very short-sighted, and unrealistic. Right now Foxconn is telling Apple it needs a better deal - Foxconn is being squeezed by Apple and the Chinese government. I don't know if you invest in Asian stocks, but I do. I've seen Foxconn's quarterly reports.
Apple's growth will slow down, the market IS getting saturated, and their margins are about to get squeezed. I'm not saying the stock will tank, or that Apple will fail, just that, without new categories of product, Apple's ceiling will likely be around the 750-800 mark.
P.S. - look at my prediction a few days ago in the next most recent thread...
Bad News!!!
Samsung claims already to own that trademark...;)
Thank you, Andy, for another fantastic write up. If all we ever did was capitalize on your handful of public bottom calls for AAPL we would all be very, very wealthy indeed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thataveragejoe
Apple stock will certainly go up a bit from here. However a 60% run in 12 months to $1000? Not likely, particularly in this market. P/E arguments have been made for why the stock is cheap numerous times over the last 2 years, it's refuted all the time and he starts to admit it above and then quietly shift to opinion. Apple will need a new product or 2 (and I don't mean a mini version of a current one...) to break $1000. Hedge accordingly.
After reading thataveragejoe's post, just for the hell of it, I clicked on the 1 year bar on Apple to see how much it was up the last 12 months, year to date. It was 53%. So looks to me like a 60% run in 12 months isn't all that unusual for Apple. I kind of get the feeling "joe" didn't really bother to read the article since he's just repeating the vague bear case which basically amounts to "$1,000 is too much." Really? Why? Apple is just getting started. Investing in Apple is like investing in the Industrial Revolution. $1000? Try $5000.
I've been long and strong on AAPL since 2007. I wish I had gotten in at $6.
I follow all Zaky's articles on AAPL -- this man knows his stuff. BOOM! :-)
As for the actual number, it doesn't mean anything between stocks unless you actually account for the other values that determine that number.
Berkshire Hathaway is currently going for $134,670 a share, but that means nothing relative to Apple.
That's Andy Zaky..... he keeps his wits and helps others keep theirs.
When everyone jumped on the bandwagon that Aapl is done....... where was Andy? Telling people not to panic, that aapl is just taking a wall street managed breather and it WILL do it's thing and be back....
I have no doubts..... buy low..... well, you know the rest.
Andy full of shit? S-T inaccurate? Did you read today's article? Andy called the lows multiple times in the last several years. The PPS gains after his "Buy" calls have been outstanding. A couple of examples: "Buy" call when the stock hit $363 in November 2011. AAPL went on a run to $644 after that low, peaking in April 2012. 77% PPS gain in 4-1/2 months. Another "Buy" in May 2012 when the stock corrected down to $520. AAPL ran up to $705 in Sept. 2012, before entering another S-T correction. A 36% gain in 4 months.
Andy's "Buy" call today is valuable info. Use it.