Analysis: Apple stock headed for $1,000 per share

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 116


    Wow! What an excellent article! Mr. Zaky must have spent days (weeks?) bringing together all that information and data points. Just chock full of info analyzed logically. You can tell from how he writes that if the analysis said sell, he would say sell. No bias, just does what the numbers tell him. And the numbers are telling him Apple is going to $1000 so buy buy buy. Seems like all we get from the bears are vague generalities (you can tell they don't have a clue about anything like smartphone penetration worldwide) about $1000 being too big a number. Really? Why? Based on what? LMAO. 

  • Reply 42 of 116


    In January, AAPL was 400. In the spring,  AAPL touched 640 and pulled back. A few weeks ago, it touched 700 and pulled back. With the new products in the pipeline: iPhone5, Mini iPad, etc. 4Q12 will be good and 1Q13 will be a blowout. The fundamentals are strong, supporting technicals that point to $700/share this year, and more than 800 in January. 2013 following 2012 will result $1000/share in summer 2013.


     


    Zaky provides the numbers, the analysis, and the evidence that now is the time to buy for a $300 - 400 run-up. Then, go buy a Mini iPad with the profits.

  • Reply 43 of 116

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post


     


    The "law of large numbers"is twaddle in my opinion. But I agree, it will reach a plateau, but that time is not now.


     


    Andy Zacky is usually full of shit though. Long term correct, but with suspicious short term timing. The fact that he say buy now, makes me think it will hit the 500's before it hits $1k



    Actually Andy Zaky's track record is perfect. 100% .So why do you say he's full...?


    To be fair, his track record is perfect only because he only issues official buy ratings when every one of his indicators is screaming buy. Any thing less, and he doesn't issue an official buy rating. 


    He just issued an official buy rating on Apple. Ignore it if you don't like money.

  • Reply 44 of 116
    mikeb85mikeb85 Posts: 506member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Xian Zhu Xuande View Post





    Apple is still growing so why shouldn't the stock continue to grow with it?

    As for the actual number, it doesn't mean anything between stocks unless you actually account for the other values that determine that number.

    Berkshire Hathaway is currently going for $134,670 a share, but that means nothing relative to Apple.


    Share price may not matter, but market cap does....

  • Reply 45 of 116

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Thomaspin View Post





    To argue that Zaky is "....full of s**t..." betrays ignorance of his track record and a poor education.


     


    Sure, that's why I have made 20 times the money I had this time last year on AAPL alone :)


    And 7X on every single one of my clients accounts.

  • Reply 46 of 116


    I'd like to know why there is so much obfuscation about Apple on Wall Street.  Exactly who are these people that are constantly trying to tear Apple down and lying to investors about Apple's potential.  It seems positively criminal.  Nobody seems to be going around shouting that Intuitive Surgical is doomed or Google's search engine is no longer useful or Amazon's margins are being stretched too thin.  Two of those stocks have reasonable P/Es except for Amazon whose P/E is practically off the charts.  Why do the bloggers continually attack Apple with all sort of complaints even as Apple products are being bought in record numbers.  Some group must have some agenda against Apple.  Are those people merely iHaters or are these people backed by hedge funds trying to corner Apple shares and Apple shorters?  Why constantly attack a company that is making good products for consumers and one of the few U.S. companies actually making money in a poor economy?


     


    As well as Apple is doing I doubt the crooks on Wall Street will ever allow Apple to reach $1000 a share.  I'm sure that Apple won't even reach $750 by the end of 2012 because that's going to take about a $100 share climb which considering how much friction Apple is getting from all sides seems nearly impossible.  Every time Apple gets near a P/E of 16, some doofus starts yelling that Apple needs a correction and boom, down goes the stock.  Apple needs to get some sort of news media damage control going to squelch all those nonsense rumors that bloggers continue to make up about the company.  For Apple shares to fall $75 over something like a poor mapping app makes no sense at all, so there must have been something else going on to make investors dump Apple stock so easily in such a short amount of time.  I'm only saying that Apple's downward movement made no sense at all when the rest of the market was rising.  Apple's fundamentals certainly didn't change significantly for the stock to suddenly be considered overbought or overpriced.  As long as the stock stays within a certain P/E (15 to 16) range then it should be considered normally priced.  Apple's P/E did reach 17 in March 2012 before crashing the next month.  Apple's mean P/E this year is just a bit higher than 14, so right now it's about where it's normally been.  I can't see why Google is allowed to have a P/E that's about 5 points higher than Apple or Amazon having a P/E that's 300 points higher.


     


    I'll happily take $750 a share this year and I'll just ignore those yelling $1000 by the end of 2013.  I'm sure the news media has not finished ripping Apple for all sorts of grievances to try and hold down the company's share price.  There are just too many outright lies and speculation about Apple being posted on the internet and it's really not good for Apple's reputation or shareholders.

  • Reply 47 of 116


    I have read many different articles by Zaky over the years and very much respect his insights.  Here is a writer who backs up his headline with deep insightful analysis.  Have you read any articles by Doug Kass or Donald Trump that back up their views?  You haven't because they don't offer any.  

  • Reply 48 of 116
    rfhjrrfhjr Posts: 44member


    Why do you think 60% is an outlying estimate?  If past is prologue, and the iPhone5 ramp up can get through supply constraints, we may well see $1000/share long before 12 months.  Take a look at all of the patents and new features chronicled on a daily basis  on A.I.  This is the most innovative company on the planet.  15x P.E. is very, very conservative.

  • Reply 49 of 116

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post


    I'd like to know why there is so much obfuscation about Apple on Wall Street.  Exactly who are these people that are constantly trying to tear Apple down and lying to investors about Apple's potential.  It seems positively criminal.  Nobody seems to be going around shouting that Intuitive Surgical is doomed or Google's search engine is no longer useful or Amazon's margins are being stretched too thin.  Two of those stocks have reasonable P/Es except for Amazon whose P/E is practically off the charts.  Why do the bloggers continually attack Apple with all sort of complaints even as Apple products are being bought in record numbers.  Some group must have some agenda against Apple.  Are those people merely iHaters or are these people backed by hedge funds trying to corner Apple shares and Apple shorters?  Why constantly attack a company that is making good products for consumers and one of the few U.S. companies actually making money in a poor economy?


     


    As well as Apple is doing I doubt the crooks on Wall Street will ever allow Apple to reach $1000 a share.  I'm sure that Apple won't even reach $750 by the end of 2012 because that's going to take about a $100 share climb which considering how much friction Apple is getting from all sides seems nearly impossible.  Every time Apple gets near a P/E of 16, some doofus starts yelling that Apple needs a correction and boom, down goes the stock.  Apple needs to get some sort of news media damage control going to squelch all those nonsense rumors that bloggers continue to make up about the company.  For Apple shares to fall $75 over something like a poor mapping app makes no sense at all, so there must have been something else going on to make investors dump Apple stock so easily in such a short amount of time.  I'm only saying that Apple's downward movement made no sense at all when the rest of the market was rising.  Apple's fundamentals certainly didn't change significantly for the stock to suddenly be considered overbought or overpriced.  As long as the stock stays within a certain P/E (15 to 16) range then it should be considered normally priced.  Apple's P/E did reach 17 in March 2012 before crashing the next month.  Apple's mean P/E this year is just a bit higher than 14, so right now it's about where it's normally been.  I can't see why Google is allowed to have a P/E that's about 5 points higher than Apple or Amazon having a P/E that's 300 points higher.


     


    I'll happily take $750 a share this year and I'll just ignore those yelling $1000 by the end of 2013.  I'm sure the news media has not finished ripping Apple for all sorts of grievances to try and hold down the company's share price.  There are just too many outright lies and speculation about Apple being posted on the internet and it's really not good for Apple's reputation or shareholders.



     


    I should keep hold of your shares, and just buy more on the dips. This juggernaut aint stopping yet. 


     


    Don't worry about the bloggers and news, they are your friends, without them we wouldn't get such wonderful dips to take advantage of...

  • Reply 50 of 116
    Glad I didn't wait for Andy's report. Got 110 shares on margin yesterday at $627, missed the bottom by $2. Holding till January's quarterly report will be about $1200 in margin interest but hopefully about 15k in return.

    Don't wait, get in before the opportunity is lost.
  • Reply 51 of 116


    Regarding Zacky, I know you lot love him, and ultimately (long term) he is often correct. However his short term timing is what I have beef with. His posts often precede a sharp drop, which when dealing with a ton of leverage as I do, is not great!


     


    A few of his posts have been directly before product announcements, anyone with any sense knows buying shortly before an announcement is more times than not, a great idea.


     


    However, I have no issue with the timing of this particular post of his.

  • Reply 52 of 116
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    The law of large numbers has never seen a global market like this and the potential of monopolizing large components of the economies of multiple nations, well not since the days of the British East India company.

    Exactly, don't know if you saw it, but I made this same East India comparison the other day.

    The rise of global maritime commerce was the beginning of the modern age of capital, and no economic upheaval equalled it until the rise of industry, another rather impressive revolution.

    This present revolution that Apple is leading is a third wave of economics based on knowledge technology. Jobs and a few others saw it from the beginning: a knowledge amplifier on everybody's desk, or in their hands, or in their pocket.

    This one has no material limits as to its contents, and the processing increases are following exponentials like Moore's Law.

    Yes, global, but I'd avoid the terms "monopoly" or "dominance." More like waves of enthusiasm, like those that followed the introduction of spices, coffee, chocolate and tobacco to successive populations. Apple is riding the expansion of the knowledge business, and knowledge is as much fun as it is powerful. (In this analysis, forms of entertainment are seen as forms of knowledge.) There will be room for other companies, but there will be a lot of howls about Apple's seeming hegemony. Already are.

    There's no forseeable end to this market. They've barely gotten started with wearable devices.
  • Reply 53 of 116

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by kwirky View Post


    After reading thataveragejoe's post, just for the hell of it, I clicked on the 1 year bar on Apple to see how much it was up the last 12 months, year to date. It was 53%. So looks to me like a 60% run in 12 months isn't all that unusual for Apple. I kind of get the feeling "joe" didn't really bother to read the article since he's just repeating the vague bear case which basically amounts to "$1,000 is too much."  Really? Why? 



     


    You actually just proved my point.  Apple should go up 120% in 2 years? Based on what? Nonsense, that's not how investing works.As a stockholder I'm very aware what the past performance has been and I've done VERY well. I couldn't give 2 craps about this analyst's opinion. I've read 4 more like his and 4 more opposite. If any of these guys REALLY knew, they'd be on an island drinking and not working writing opinions. Apple's a large stock not a speculative pharma stock. It will move higher, in time, as I originally said, but absent a new product line or 2, it won't stabilize at $1000 in 12 months. It surely will be over $700 by the end of the year, unless they blow up the quarter some how. The growth isn't there in refreshing current products to warrant that kind of growth. iPhone and iPad are up, but iPods are down, Macs fluctuate quarter to quarter, and iTunes revenue isn't as robust as it used to be. Most of Apple's revenue is in iPhone, outside the US. Is that really going to double in the next year?


     


     


    Quote:


     Apple is just getting started. Investing in Apple is like investing in the Industrial Revolution. $1000? Try $5000.



     


    This advice is free, you should probably avoid investing. 

  • Reply 54 of 116
    jnjnjnjnjnjn Posts: 588member
    In the Netherlands we would say: "een broodje gebakken lucht".

    J.
  • Reply 55 of 116
    @monstrosity @hface119 It is decidedly NOT the law of large numbers. Learn what you're talking about before you start throwing terms around like that.

    As far as Andy Zacky (sic) goes, the man's loaded, primarily because of his Apple investing knowledge. If Bullish Cross *and* Asymco provide reasoned evidence of the stock's likely direction and future value, I'll probably listen to them before one of the growing number of troll-bears that are talking the stock down because the price per share is too high. Seriously??? Price *** per share *** is the focus rather than P/E??? Yeah, that's some quality thinking right there. Enjoy your Zunes, guys.
  • Reply 56 of 116
    mikeb85mikeb85 Posts: 506member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post


     


    Sure, that's why I have made 20 times the money I had this time last year on AAPL alone :)


    And 7X on every single one of my clients accounts.



    20X?  Unless you're day trading with a huge margin account I doubt you could make 20X in one year.  Even then it would be doubtful.  

  • Reply 57 of 116

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tog13 View Post



    @monstrosity @hface119 It is decidedly NOT the law of large numbers. Learn what you're talking about before you start throwing terms around like that.

    As far as Andy Zacky (sic) goes, the man's loaded, primarily because of his Apple investing knowledge.


     


     


    erm, I'm on your side! Re-read my post. I said the law of large numbers is a crock of shit.

  • Reply 58 of 116
    Great analysis. Glad I bought more last week.
  • Reply 59 of 116
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    jnjnjn wrote: »
    In the Netherlands we would say: "een broodje gebakken lucht".
    J.

    I had some good sandwiches there, very tasty. And you are right, air is what this is about.

    But hot air is what floats balloons.
  • Reply 60 of 116

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post


    20X?  Unless you're day trading with a huge margin account I doubt you could make 20X in one year.  Even then it would be doubtful.  



     


    I use Spread Betting with 20X leverage. Sell on a high, buy on a low, a few times a year with that kind of leverage cranked up and you can get silly returns. 


    I don't even push the leverage that hard. Could easily have been 30X had I had the nerve.


     


    A friend of mine had 20 X his initial equity within just 6 months last year. But he was in some dark places at times and taking risks well beyond that which I feel comfortable with.


    Had he continued that run for the next 6 months he would have had 400 X his initial equity in 1 year...! 

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