I think this unit might sell a ton of product going into markets that don't yet use iPads, don't normally use a computer for certain types of jobs. I think a 5 inch version might also be a good idea as well. The larger form factor STILL has a market due to the more screen real estate available. Certain functions kind of need the larger screen. I can also see some people buying each size just to have depending on a particular need.
In your own words absolute bull. There are obvious ways of gauging popularity of unreleased products, not least of all research into people's purchasing intentions - you ask them. You can also look at buying trends in similar markets, e.g. the android tablet market where multiple sizes are available.
We're not talking about a device which is so groundbreaking that people might not know they want it until they've seen it (like the iPad and iPhone when they were first introduced). People have seen iPads. People have seen 7" tablets. It's not that hard to envisage a 7.85" iPad.
Such forecasting must be taken for what it is, a tentative prediction in the light of (a) not having seen/held the product and (b) not knowing the price. It's not an exact science, but nor is it an invalid process to attempt as you suggest.
We don't dismiss weather forecasting as pointless because it sometimes turns out inaccurate, we accept it for what it is.
None of these methods you speak of are anywhere near reliable or factual. Asking people what they feel about a product they have never seen or used (or even seen a review or advertisement for), is just ridiculous. I realise it's done all the time, but the idea that such activities have any level of accuracy at all or can actually tell us anything meaningful is poppycock.
- Gene Munster is a fraud. He is even less accurate than other analysts who are also, as a group, woefully incorrect the majority of the time.
- "Customer surveys" are notorious for being possibly the least accurate way of getting to the bottom of anything. People lie constantly, unconsciously, and most of the time without even being aware that they are.
For the record, Weather Forecasting is also incorrect more often than not and anyone who takes either "prediction" as any kind of scientific fact, or even a somewhat accurate forecast of future events, is just fooling themselves. One almost might as well read the Astrology in the morning paper instead.
So when I say it's "bull" I mean that there is no way that he could obtain anything like reliable information about possible cannibalisation at this stage of the proceedings. His prediction may even turn out to be accurate, but his methodology is shite, his track record is very very poor, and everything about the "numbers" he is determining will change both with the actual release and with the initial public reaction to the new product.
Again, this makes everything he says essentially meaningless.
Reading books on my iPad (3) can get tiring after a while. The screen is gorgeous, but the weight seems to increase by the hour. I'll probably grab a 16GB iPad Mini (or whatever they're going to call it) just for reading books. That's assuming, or course, the it ends up being significantly lighter.
Well, one thing for sure, you don't mince your words. But yeah, I can't stand Android either (my personal opinion).
I think the Nexus hardware is alright. If it had iOS on it people would be hot to buy it.
This is partly why I think Apple is making a (small) mistake in sticking with all the high end aluminium stuff. I don't personally see anything wrong with a plastic, cheap, but still well-built mini iPad that could be mass produced for under $100. The new mini, (if rumours are to be believed), will some in at $50 more than the Nexus with less memory and probably heavier as well. Apple will probably sell them by the boatload anyway, but IMO it would be better for their customers to sell a cheaper one and they would probably sell more.
Yes, you can. I can almost guarantee you that Apple does similar product forecasting to see how much cannibalization they can expect and if the margins they're estimating will offset it. That's how business works.
Absolute bull. There is absolutely no way you can gauge the popularity of an unreleased product. Any calculations of "cannibalisation rates" he does are pure fantasy and given the messenger, not worth talking about.
Yes, you can. I can almost guarantee you that Apple does similar product forecasting to see how much cannibalization they can expect and if the margins they're estimating will offset it. That's how business works.
Heck, for all we know, the smaller version could cannibalize sales of 4 out of 5 full size iPads...
A few guys (of the more creative persuasion) in the bar I drink coffee with who have iPads are almost certainly buying the "mini" version (and maybe more than one) for their younger children. So I think there will be virtually no cannibalization, but rather a noticeable expansion of the halo effect within family groups.
I think the Nexus hardware is alright. If it had iOS on it people would be hot to buy it.
This is partly why I think Apple is making a (small) mistake in sticking with all the high end aluminium stuff. I don't personally see anything wrong with a plastic, cheap, but still well-built mini iPad that could be mass produced for under $100. The new mini, (if rumours are to be believed), will some in at $50 more than the Nexus with less memory and probably heavier as well. Apple will probably sell them by the boatload anyway, but IMO it would be better for their customers to sell a cheaper one and they would probably sell more.
I see you point, but Apple has to draw the line somewhere. They operate at the higher-end and I think they'd rather produce a high-end small tablet to set themselves apart from the Fires and Nexus' of the world for the extra $50 (or whatever).
The iPad Mini is for kids and schools. The new Touch spex may point to the Mini spex and features. The Touch is now a lean and mean and green machine. So Apple has created space for the Touch when the Mini arrives. Best guess for the Mini: Lower screen resolution than the Touch, front side camera only, less memory, no siri, no passbook. But it will have a bigger screen and all those apps and will sell for $200-250 to schools. So the Mini for school; the Touch for home. Adults at work can afford a full blown iPad, as current sales demonstrate clearly. Also the Mini will be lighter, brighter, thinner, faster and much more useful than the Fire or Nook.
I think the Nexus hardware is alright. If it had iOS on it people would be hot to buy it.
This is partly why I think Apple is making a (small) mistake in sticking with all the high end aluminium stuff. I don't personally see anything wrong with a plastic, cheap, but still well-built mini iPad that could be mass produced for under $100. The new mini, (if rumours are to be believed), will some in at $50 more than the Nexus with less memory and probably heavier as well. Apple will probably sell them by the boatload anyway, but IMO it would be better for their customers to sell a cheaper one and they would probably sell more.
Apple doesn't make cheap plastic junk anymore. It's part of the Design. I bet BMW can sell more cars if they use pleather in the upholstery, fake wood, handcrank windows, and plexiglass instead of glass.
I think the Nexus hardware is alright. If it had iOS on it people would be hot to buy it.
This is partly why I think Apple is making a (small) mistake in sticking with all the high end aluminium stuff. I don't personally see anything wrong with a plastic, cheap, but still well-built mini iPad that could be mass produced for under $100. The new mini, (if rumours are to be believed), will some in at $50 more than the Nexus with less memory and probably heavier as well. Apple will probably sell them by the boatload anyway, but IMO it would be better for their customers to sell a cheaper one and they would probably sell more.
Once again, you fail to see—or pretend so that others would not see—Apple's most laudable accomplishment in industrial design and engineering: the use of CNC machined and laser-cut aluminum in portable consumer electronic devices.
This is what they will be known for in the future by those who study the history of industrial design. It is a breakthrough that only an aesthetically driven company with a lot cash would do.
If you don't see this, you don't understand what Apple is about at all.
Plastic? You are living in the past, pre Macbook Air. Don't insult artists like this.
The Nexus is a fucking piece of convoluted, unintuitive shit.
I speak, unfortuneately so, from first hand & intensive experience.
And this is the "flagship" Android tablet?!?
Anyone who says that the trashing of the Nexus is "just Apple fanboi-ism"
is a complete & utter asshole.
Way to go Box! But I take it you're talking about the software only. How is that pebbly plastic back with the molded-in brand name?
Absolute bull. There is absolutely no way you can gauge the popularity of an unreleased product. Any calculations of "cannibalisation rates" he does are pure fantasy and given the messenger, not worth talking about.
Correct it is BS guess, but it is ok to talk about and guess.
If I were to 'guess' it would be a little larger percentage... 50% or more cannibiliaztion. Why... price, pure and simple. For the 80% of tasks of email and web browsing etc... the 7.8 will be fine.
I see you point, but Apple has to draw the line somewhere. They operate at the higher-end and I think they'd rather produce a high-end small tablet to set themselves apart from the Fires and Nexus' of the world for the extra $50 (or whatever).
Yeah, I understand the why and I know it will likely never happen, but I still think they are wrong to do it that way.
It's just so much of a dodge from the actually cheap Nexus, to make a sort of "fake cheap" iPad. It's $50 more (for less), and in reality 8GB is just not enough for a lot of folks so the $350 dollar one is the "real" entry point for a lot of people. I think they will sell more of the 8GB one simply because of the price, but those that get it will be disappointed and I bet we will never see an 8GB iPad from Apple ever again. It will be like the "fatty" nano. A stop-gap measure to appease certain short term goals. A way of "fooling" people into thinking they can afford something they really can't. It just kind of leaves a bad taste in the mouth IMO.
Microsoft is in the same boat with the MS Surface RT. It's the same entry price as an iPad, but it doesn't function without the $100 keyboard "accessory." So again, kind of "fake cheap" in that the "real" price is a hundred dollars more than advertised.
I do not have an ipad, and do not plan on getting one at it's current form and price. I am very interested in the mini though. I can see myself liking the mini and then contemplated getting a full size and passing the mini on to the kids. My thought was just the opposite of the article. The mini may be my gateway to a full size ipad.
Apple doesn't make cheap plastic junk anymore. It's part of the Design. I bet BMW can sell more cars if they use pleather in the upholstery, fake wood, handcrank windows, and plexiglass instead of glass.
I would argue that a BMW with plexiglass instead of glass would actually be a bad design, whereas a plastic iPad would actually be a boon to the end user.
Part of the attraction and indeed a part of the design of a BMW is that it's a high end luxury machine, a "precious" and coveted device. I'm sure Apple would argue similarly for it's iOS devices, but it makes no sense in the context of what they are. If mobile devices are designed to be ubiquitous (they are), and if they are expected to be even more prevalent and more widely used than a computer desktop or laptop (they are), then they shouldn't really be thought of as precious jewels at all. They should be "chuckable," resilient and lightweight. Plastic is perfect for this.
It's no surprise that overall, the biggest area of complaint from users over Apple's iOS devices has always been durability and this very "preciousness."
Apple wants to own this market and dominate it, but they act like they are still aiming for the 10% of elite users at the top in terms of their product design.
It's just so much of a dodge from the actually cheap Nexus, to make a sort of "fake cheap" iPad. It's $50 more (for less), and in reality 8GB is just not enough for a lot of folks so the $350 dollar one is the "real" entry point for a lot of people.
This is the same game Amazon played when the Fire first came out. They could boast that they had a 7" tablet for $199 and that was enough to win a lot of people over. If Apple does end up making an 8GB variant and sells it for $249, they will likewise generate a lot of sales simple on that fact. Unlike the case of Amazon and the Fire however, Apple has an already established brand in the iPad and people will be willing to pay up for that despite the unit potentially having only 8GB of storage (as has been established by the iPad's domination). For me and what I would like an iPad Mini for, 16GB will be way more than adequate (so I guess that kinda supports your point).
The iPad 3 is the perfect size. When you read magazines (People, Time, etc.) you get the full page and you can not enlarge it. It will be too tiny to read on the small screen.
Accurate and succinct Market Research sampling a broad set of potential buyers (n=1). Apple, I recommend you follow this guy, because obviously he speaks for all the rest of the 3Billion people on earth who buy smart phones or computers.... most of which have never read a magazine online. But the research doesn't lie.
Comments
I think a 5 inch version might also be a good idea as well. The larger form factor STILL has a market due to the more screen real estate available. Certain functions kind of need the larger screen. I can also see some people buying each size just to have depending on a particular need.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevt
In your own words absolute bull. There are obvious ways of gauging popularity of unreleased products, not least of all research into people's purchasing intentions - you ask them. You can also look at buying trends in similar markets, e.g. the android tablet market where multiple sizes are available.
We're not talking about a device which is so groundbreaking that people might not know they want it until they've seen it (like the iPad and iPhone when they were first introduced). People have seen iPads. People have seen 7" tablets. It's not that hard to envisage a 7.85" iPad.
Such forecasting must be taken for what it is, a tentative prediction in the light of (a) not having seen/held the product and (b) not knowing the price. It's not an exact science, but nor is it an invalid process to attempt as you suggest.
We don't dismiss weather forecasting as pointless because it sometimes turns out inaccurate, we accept it for what it is.
None of these methods you speak of are anywhere near reliable or factual. Asking people what they feel about a product they have never seen or used (or even seen a review or advertisement for), is just ridiculous. I realise it's done all the time, but the idea that such activities have any level of accuracy at all or can actually tell us anything meaningful is poppycock.
- Gene Munster is a fraud. He is even less accurate than other analysts who are also, as a group, woefully incorrect the majority of the time.
- "Customer surveys" are notorious for being possibly the least accurate way of getting to the bottom of anything. People lie constantly, unconsciously, and most of the time without even being aware that they are.
For the record, Weather Forecasting is also incorrect more often than not and anyone who takes either "prediction" as any kind of scientific fact, or even a somewhat accurate forecast of future events, is just fooling themselves. One almost might as well read the Astrology in the morning paper instead.
So when I say it's "bull" I mean that there is no way that he could obtain anything like reliable information about possible cannibalisation at this stage of the proceedings. His prediction may even turn out to be accurate, but his methodology is shite, his track record is very very poor, and everything about the "numbers" he is determining will change both with the actual release and with the initial public reaction to the new product.
Again, this makes everything he says essentially meaningless.
Reading books on my iPad (3) can get tiring after a while. The screen is gorgeous, but the weight seems to increase by the hour.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevt
We don't dismiss weather forecasting as pointless because it sometimes turns out inaccurate, we accept it for what it is.
yes, but no one has stock in the weather. no one sells weather in case the temperature misses the forecasted temperature.
These analysts are manipulating stocks prices.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob55
Well, one thing for sure, you don't mince your words. But yeah, I can't stand Android either (my personal opinion).
I think the Nexus hardware is alright. If it had iOS on it people would be hot to buy it.
This is partly why I think Apple is making a (small) mistake in sticking with all the high end aluminium stuff. I don't personally see anything wrong with a plastic, cheap, but still well-built mini iPad that could be mass produced for under $100. The new mini, (if rumours are to be believed), will some in at $50 more than the Nexus with less memory and probably heavier as well. Apple will probably sell them by the boatload anyway, but IMO it would be better for their customers to sell a cheaper one and they would probably sell more.
Yes, you can. I can almost guarantee you that Apple does similar product forecasting to see how much cannibalization they can expect and if the margins they're estimating will offset it. That's how business works.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee
Absolute bull. There is absolutely no way you can gauge the popularity of an unreleased product. Any calculations of "cannibalisation rates" he does are pure fantasy and given the messenger, not worth talking about.
Yes, you can. I can almost guarantee you that Apple does similar product forecasting to see how much cannibalization they can expect and if the margins they're estimating will offset it. That's how business works.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahmlco
SNIP...Heck, for all we know, the smaller version could cannibalize sales of 4 out of 5 full size iPads...
A few guys (of the more creative persuasion) in the bar I drink coffee with who have iPads are almost certainly buying the "mini" version (and maybe more than one) for their younger children. So I think there will be virtually no cannibalization, but rather a noticeable expansion of the halo effect within family groups.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee
I think the Nexus hardware is alright. If it had iOS on it people would be hot to buy it.
This is partly why I think Apple is making a (small) mistake in sticking with all the high end aluminium stuff. I don't personally see anything wrong with a plastic, cheap, but still well-built mini iPad that could be mass produced for under $100. The new mini, (if rumours are to be believed), will some in at $50 more than the Nexus with less memory and probably heavier as well. Apple will probably sell them by the boatload anyway, but IMO it would be better for their customers to sell a cheaper one and they would probably sell more.
I see you point, but Apple has to draw the line somewhere. They operate at the higher-end and I think they'd rather produce a high-end small tablet to set themselves apart from the Fires and Nexus' of the world for the extra $50 (or whatever).
The iPad Mini is for kids and schools. The new Touch spex may point to the Mini spex and features. The Touch is now a lean and mean and green machine. So Apple has created space for the Touch when the Mini arrives. Best guess for the Mini: Lower screen resolution than the Touch, front side camera only, less memory, no siri, no passbook. But it will have a bigger screen and all those apps and will sell for $200-250 to schools. So the Mini for school; the Touch for home. Adults at work can afford a full blown iPad, as current sales demonstrate clearly. Also the Mini will be lighter, brighter, thinner, faster and much more useful than the Fire or Nook.
Originally Posted by Stef
The iPad Mini is for kids and schools. So the Mini for school…
Textbook makers are gonna be excited to make two versions (and formats, etc) of every book.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee
I think the Nexus hardware is alright. If it had iOS on it people would be hot to buy it.
This is partly why I think Apple is making a (small) mistake in sticking with all the high end aluminium stuff. I don't personally see anything wrong with a plastic, cheap, but still well-built mini iPad that could be mass produced for under $100. The new mini, (if rumours are to be believed), will some in at $50 more than the Nexus with less memory and probably heavier as well. Apple will probably sell them by the boatload anyway, but IMO it would be better for their customers to sell a cheaper one and they would probably sell more.
Apple doesn't make cheap plastic junk anymore. It's part of the Design. I bet BMW can sell more cars if they use pleather in the upholstery, fake wood, handcrank windows, and plexiglass instead of glass.
Once again, you fail to see—or pretend so that others would not see—Apple's most laudable accomplishment in industrial design and engineering: the use of CNC machined and laser-cut aluminum in portable consumer electronic devices.
This is what they will be known for in the future by those who study the history of industrial design. It is a breakthrough that only an aesthetically driven company with a lot cash would do.
If you don't see this, you don't understand what Apple is about at all.
Plastic? You are living in the past, pre Macbook Air. Don't insult artists like this.
Way to go Box! But I take it you're talking about the software only. How is that pebbly plastic back with the molded-in brand name?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee
Absolute bull. There is absolutely no way you can gauge the popularity of an unreleased product. Any calculations of "cannibalisation rates" he does are pure fantasy and given the messenger, not worth talking about.
Correct it is BS guess, but it is ok to talk about and guess.
If I were to 'guess' it would be a little larger percentage... 50% or more cannibiliaztion. Why... price, pure and simple. For the 80% of tasks of email and web browsing etc... the 7.8 will be fine.
Originally Posted by boeyc15
Why... price, pure and simple. For the 80% of tasks of email and web browsing etc... the 7.8 will be fine.
Wow. So everything Apple has taught us about UX just… out the window.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob55
I see you point, but Apple has to draw the line somewhere. They operate at the higher-end and I think they'd rather produce a high-end small tablet to set themselves apart from the Fires and Nexus' of the world for the extra $50 (or whatever).
Yeah, I understand the why and I know it will likely never happen, but I still think they are wrong to do it that way.
It's just so much of a dodge from the actually cheap Nexus, to make a sort of "fake cheap" iPad. It's $50 more (for less), and in reality 8GB is just not enough for a lot of folks so the $350 dollar one is the "real" entry point for a lot of people. I think they will sell more of the 8GB one simply because of the price, but those that get it will be disappointed and I bet we will never see an 8GB iPad from Apple ever again. It will be like the "fatty" nano. A stop-gap measure to appease certain short term goals. A way of "fooling" people into thinking they can afford something they really can't. It just kind of leaves a bad taste in the mouth IMO.
Microsoft is in the same boat with the MS Surface RT. It's the same entry price as an iPad, but it doesn't function without the $100 keyboard "accessory." So again, kind of "fake cheap" in that the "real" price is a hundred dollars more than advertised.
I do not have an ipad, and do not plan on getting one at it's current form and price. I am very interested in the mini though. I can see myself liking the mini and then contemplated getting a full size and passing the mini on to the kids. My thought was just the opposite of the article. The mini may be my gateway to a full size ipad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark
Apple doesn't make cheap plastic junk anymore. It's part of the Design. I bet BMW can sell more cars if they use pleather in the upholstery, fake wood, handcrank windows, and plexiglass instead of glass.
I would argue that a BMW with plexiglass instead of glass would actually be a bad design, whereas a plastic iPad would actually be a boon to the end user.
Part of the attraction and indeed a part of the design of a BMW is that it's a high end luxury machine, a "precious" and coveted device. I'm sure Apple would argue similarly for it's iOS devices, but it makes no sense in the context of what they are. If mobile devices are designed to be ubiquitous (they are), and if they are expected to be even more prevalent and more widely used than a computer desktop or laptop (they are), then they shouldn't really be thought of as precious jewels at all. They should be "chuckable," resilient and lightweight. Plastic is perfect for this.
It's no surprise that overall, the biggest area of complaint from users over Apple's iOS devices has always been durability and this very "preciousness."
Apple wants to own this market and dominate it, but they act like they are still aiming for the 10% of elite users at the top in terms of their product design.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gazoobee
It's just so much of a dodge from the actually cheap Nexus, to make a sort of "fake cheap" iPad. It's $50 more (for less), and in reality 8GB is just not enough for a lot of folks so the $350 dollar one is the "real" entry point for a lot of people.
This is the same game Amazon played when the Fire first came out. They could boast that they had a 7" tablet for $199 and that was enough to win a lot of people over. If Apple does end up making an 8GB variant and sells it for $249, they will likewise generate a lot of sales simple on that fact. Unlike the case of Amazon and the Fire however, Apple has an already established brand in the iPad and people will be willing to pay up for that despite the unit potentially having only 8GB of storage (as has been established by the iPad's domination). For me and what I would like an iPad Mini for, 16GB will be way more than adequate (so I guess that kinda supports your point).
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaNorse
The iPad 3 is the perfect size. When you read magazines (People, Time, etc.) you get the full page and you can not enlarge it. It will be too tiny to read on the small screen.
Accurate and succinct Market Research sampling a broad set of potential buyers (n=1). Apple, I recommend you follow this guy, because obviously he speaks for all the rest of the 3Billion people on earth who buy smart phones or computers.... most of which have never read a magazine online. But the research doesn't lie.