Apple on pace to sell 4.8M Macs in holiday quarter, down 7% year over year

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  • Reply 21 of 119
    tbell wrote: »

    As somebody else said, the issue is timing. September is the big back to school season. Further, people are likely spending money on gifts for others because of the holidays. These purchases will be things like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. 

    Can't be timing because the comparison is based on the same quarter as last year. This estimate is a real decline. The reasons will have to be analyzed. The drop in Apples stock may have made their products seem less attractive.
  • Reply 22 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!


     


    I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?



    Because you can't actually buy half the stuff they refreshed.

  • Reply 23 of 119


    No need to make any excuse, let's face it iPad and iPad mini are going to make fewer people buy Macs and PCs in general, plus there's also this low end segments filled by tablets by Google and Amazon. Expensive computers are hard sell these days especially when consumers are mostly just using them to browse the web or watch movies. It's not a AAPL issue, although since AAPL sells the highest end computers they'd actually be the most impacted because the price diff is so big people would think twice before buying a $2.5k retina macbook pro instead of a $329 iPad mini that can do 80% of the things and is lighter and thinner.

  • Reply 24 of 119
    If this report predicting slowing Mac sales proves to be accurate, it is only a reflection of the broader displacement of desk and laptop computers. AAPL is the big winner in the transition to the tablet and smartphone. It stands to reason that with the increasing capabilities of the iPad and iPhone, its legacy (albeit beautifully refreshed) products will also see moderating sales.
  • Reply 25 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by peter236 View Post


    They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points so that their market share can be increased.





    Bingo. I've been saying that for 27 years.

  • Reply 26 of 119
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,144member
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    I just would like to remind people that last quarter, IDC estimated that Apple's Mac sales would be down by 6%, and Gartner estimated 9%. But sales were actually up 1%.

    So keep this in mind for now.
  • Reply 27 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!


     


    I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?



    Maybe because some of the refresh has still yet to show up!  21.5" iMacs in November...  November 30th?!


     


    27" iMacs in December...  After Christmas?  


     


    Sure you got the new 13" Retina Macbook Pro and the other Macbooks but not all of us are waiting for that...  So I can see why sales are expected to be lower regarding Mac numbers.


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  • Reply 28 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post





    Can't be timing because the comparison is based on the same quarter as last year. This estimate is a real decline. The reasons will have to be analyzed. The drop in Apples stock may have made their products seem less attractive.


    the comparison is made on a guess of this year and last year's whole numbers.  and it's an Estimate based on an Estimate (It's not even Gene's numbers, but his interpretations of NPD's numbers).


     


    It's not a real decline until apple posts numbers.


     


    What sort of bizarre logic is apple stock price have to do with consumer purchase?   I've heard that in the past by the corporate sales Microsoft/IBM FUDdie duddies  ('Don't buy that, they'll be out of business next year'), but really?


     


    The reasons for not a buying a mac now are pretty obvious.


     


    We are still in a consumer recession.   if there are 12Million people out of work... they sure as sh*t aren't buying a new $1000 device.  They may buy a phone, but a $1000 mac?  hardly.  Remember, we're 4 years into it now... Mac sales have grown in real numbers through out this mess, and just now are starting to taper off, probably because most people are 'making do' (My last Mac purchase was 2.5 years ago, and I'm in Tech... See next).


     


    The negative impact of Quality:  Mac Products last longer than 3 years.  My Macbooks are 3 and 4 years old.  My Son in grad school is running on a 2003 G4 Titanium Powerbook (granted we cobbled it together with another when one motherboard died and the other's screen died in 2008).  My other son in med school replaced a 2005 MacBookPro. with a new MBA in August.  


     


    Osborne Effect:  Why buy a Mac in October when Apple announced new products on Oct 23rd, and didn't ship until November (or december)  


     


    Win8 and Surface Release:  I think a lot of potential MBA buyers held off until the new crop of Microsoft stuff came to market.  Give them 6 months;-), and 25% will be craigslist fodder and they'll buy a MBA or an iPad.


     


    Self Competition: I wouldn't be surprised if the new iPad and Mini cannibalizes the MBA/iMac. How many people NEED a brand new desktop mac?  your old mac works just fine when you are wandering through the house with absolutely beautiful iPad 4 or light as a feather iPadMini connected via icloud.


     


    (my iPad does a better job with mp4s than my mac, and it's brutally easy to AirPlay them to my TVs... I've got one long HDMI cable for sale because of this).


     


    So in short, let's wait till Jan 2xth for the real numbers, and understand we are post desktop... and a lot of jobs done by a Mac are now being done by a computer 1/2 the price in the iPad.

  • Reply 29 of 119
    gwmacgwmac Posts: 1,799member
    What is the margin on the Mac Mini? The cheapest model is $599 but you only get 4GB Ram, 500GB HD, and a Core i5 @2.5GHz. I have to believe that Apple could make a computer with those specs or better for $499 and still make a really nice fat margin. The reason the mini is so expensive is because they choose to basically make it from laptop parts which are more expensive. Apple is obsessed with thin and light even for their desktop line where it really is not very important since you probably never move it ever.

  • Reply 30 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post

    The drop in Apples stock may have made their products seem less attractive.


    Hmmm..... I think there's a causality problem in your statement.

  • Reply 31 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Hmmm..... I think there's a causality problem in your statement.





    C'mon, Anan... you know damn well that at least 95% of buyers of computers watch the price of AAPL!  image

  • Reply 32 of 119


    The recent releases havent been good exactly.



    ive returned two macbook pro retinas due serious issues. the screens are faulty as hell. both had ghosting /IR issues.



    Now ive left the mac after 17 years of being a macuser. will order my samsung laptop soon.

     

  • Reply 33 of 119
    gwmacgwmac Posts: 1,799member


    As others already pointed out the late iMac refresh has to figure into any drop. Hope they get that sorted out soon.

  • Reply 34 of 119


    all wrong answers.


     


    iMacs are used for playing World of Warcraft (Mist of Pandaria). Period.


     


    Sarah.

  • Reply 35 of 119
    nikon133nikon133 Posts: 2,600member
    quadra 610 wrote: »

    Can't. If Apple wants to maintain quality, margins, and [SIZE=16px]continue to dominate in PC consumer satisfaction (for many years now)[/SIZE], they need to forego market share in favour of simply being the best, but with barriers to consumer entry that are naturally occurring with the necessary increase in price. 

    I really don't think Apple minds that situation.

    Where the Mac can't go in retail, however, the iPad will. 

    It's a win-win for Apple. 

    You should try bigger font. This one still doesn't look convincing enough.
  • Reply 36 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by nikon133 View Post





    You should try bigger font. This one still doesn't look convincing enough.


     


    Trolls lack vision. 

  • Reply 37 of 119
    dcj001dcj001 Posts: 301member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by peter236 View Post


    They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points so that their market share can be increased.



     


    No.

  • Reply 38 of 119
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!

    I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?

    It was, and I'm sure it has something to do with it but the bigger reason is that we are in a Post PC world. If Apple loses a Mac sale to another PC OEM or other tablet OEM then it truly is a loss for Apple but we need to prepare ourselves that modern tablets are more than adequate for most people for most of their tasks.

    One thing I've seen from Mac users isn't so much that they are giving up their Macs but that they aren't replacing them as often as they use to. It's affects the sales numbers. I used to buy a new 13" MBP with each revision but stopped doing that in 2010. I assume the I Pad had something to do with that. I will be buying a 27" iMac (moving away from notebooks, again because of the iPad) ASAP. I figure this will be my last Mac purchase for many years.

    I do wonder what those not want Win8 will do moving forward. I will be a slow burn but Apple could easily reap the rewards. To me, the only important metric isn't the growth of the PC market but the growth of the PC sans Macs that will tell us the health of Macs in the market. Fir example, if we look at the PMP market the iPod is still king despite the drop in sales
  • Reply 39 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!


     


    I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?



     


    IMacs are not available.  When they do next quarter, they will sell like hotcakes.


     


    13" rMBPs are too expensive. $1,699 for 128GB SSD?  Not many buyers at these prices, I'm guessing.


     


    Mac Pro's will be refreshed next quarter/year.  Who would buy now?


     


    Mac mini's are probably selling at the same rate as before.  The Fusion Drive is a major attractive feature.


     


    That leaves Macbook Airs (very attractive price/feature combinations), 15" rMBP (somewhat well-priced - at least better than 13" rMBP) and regular Macbook Pro's.


     


    I am guessing there will be a significant drop in sales this quarter.

  • Reply 40 of 119
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 2,504member


    As a few other apparently overly perceptive people have posted...


     


    There is a lull in sales-so-far, because people were and still are waiting for newer models to be released. How an analyst can project current sales for the rest of the quarter is remarkably naive. New iMacs were released before the 1st fiscal quarter (fourth, calendar) began last year so it was easier to predict then.

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