Apple's iPad projected to control 50% of tablet shipments through 2016

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  • Reply 21 of 50
    What I'm curious about is where the analysts are going to group the Win 8 Pro devices like the ATIV, Lenovo Yoga, Dell Brick...um... forgot.

    Are they tablets? Laptops? Ultra touchbooks? A new category all together?

    Win RT aka WART is 100% DOA and will cease to exist com February/March 2013. That you can take to the bank!
  • Reply 22 of 50
    This article should be titled- IDC PROJECTS - 141 MILLION IPADS SOLD ANNUALLY BY 2016

    How this gets twisted around to be a PROBLEM is both remarkable and lame.


  • Reply 23 of 50
    jmgregory1 wrote: »
    MS does indeed own the enterprise market, but even they understand that change is happening.  The shift with businesses allowing their employees to use their own devices is something I'm sure MS never thought would happen - not when said devices have been iPhones, iPads and MacBook's.  As much as IT professionals loathe this change as much as MS does, the savings companies realize when this occurs can be substantial and something you have to expect will continue, and in all likelihood accelerate.  The user experience Apple has fostered should be embarrassing to MS when you look at the direction they're going now.  I understand that they (MS) have to support the sub-set of businesses created to fix MS's own issues, but the reality is people, both consumers and business employees, want things to be simple to use and to work without tweaking settings or needing an IT person to make things right.

    I'm sure there is a group of people out there that actually like MS and their OS and programs, but I just don't see a majority of windows users saying they wish they could have the same windows experience on their phones and tablets - because that would mean they'd get to experience all the frustrations of working with MS that they commonly get while at work.

    The only way I see them getting any meaningful market share is if they can convince enough IT heads and corporations to force Surface tablets down the throats of their employees.  Otherwise common sense tells me they're going to have to work hard just to maintain niche status of the Surface, let alone see any kind of broad implementation.

    Really great post!

    Just one note though: you talking about WinRT (WART) Surface or Pro?

    I watched this morning the review of the ATIV Surface Pro on YouTube. It has a certain compelling look and use-case scenarios to it for some(!) people I know. The current pricing puts it out of the picture for now, but come April-May when all of the OEMs start to go south bottom-feeding at around 500-600.-... yeah... compelling is the right word.
  • Reply 24 of 50
    [QUOTE name="ThePixelDoc" url="/t/154806/apples-ipad-projected-to-control-50-of-tablet-shipments-through-2016#post_2241748"]
    Really great post!

    Just one note though: you talking about WinRT (WART) Surface or Pro?

    I watched this morning the review of the ATIV Surface Pro on YouTube. It has a certain compelling look and use-case scenarios to it [B]for some(!) people[/B] I know. The current pricing puts it out of the picture for now, but come April-May when all of the OEMs start to go south bottom-feeding at around 500-600.-... yeah... compelling is the right word.[/QUOTE]
    I guess what I'm talking about is the dual OS tablet cum ultra ultra book, the surface and it's like, not to mention the touch screen laptop and desktops they're trying to promote now (again) too.  In regards to the MS 8 tablets, whether they're RT or Pro doesn't really matter.  The excitement I hear from people who want a Pro speaks only to the fact that they can run it as if it were their desktop/laptop - which is great if what you're really looking for is simply a smaller form factor laptop, but I dare anyone to use some if not all legacy windows desktop programs on a touchscreen tablet without adding in a keyboard and mouse.  And once you do that, so you can operate said program, then you're not using the tablet as a tablet - you're using it as a laptop.  

    And in a more general sense, I was talking about the issues many people face on a regular basis using windows based systems at work.  I know I was one of those people that was windows at work, Mac at home, mostly because I didn't want to keep dealing with the hardware and software issues I faced using my company laptop and system.  At the point where I could make the decisions regarding hardware and software, guess which way I went?

    Off topic, sort of, is MS's idea of making the desktop/laptop OS touch based.  I just don't see how it can physically work that way in the same way trying to make non-touch based programs work in a touch based hardware application.  MS isn't trying to create something new, they're trying to skimp on creating os's that work based upon the form factor of the hardware.  Without some drastic innovations in hardware, and even then I'm not sure it will work, trying to go from typing on a horizontal keyboard and using either a mouse or trackpad to seamlessly touching the screen on a desktop or laptop makes zero sense.  At least as far as traditional use goes.  

    Sure, there are situations like graphic design, where keyboard use could be all but eliminated and replaced with a touch screen interface, but that is NOT MS's bread and butter business.  Show me how this could make sense running excel or even word - and I'm talking using a desktop or laptop.  How does it make sense to move your hand from the flat plane in front of you to a position where you have to hold your arm and hand up, being careful not to push too hard on the screen for fear of knocking it over or changing the angle of view?  How does that make sense in the real world?  I'm not a human mechanics engineer, but it doesn't take but a second of playing around to realize this is not the way forward.

    It will be a different story if we can get to the point of non-touch finger, hand or even eye movement control of our computers, ala Minority Report style computer interface, but we're not there yet.
  • Reply 25 of 50
    only a few years ago the same was said about android phones..... and the same arrogant disbelief was shown. Apple should be so lucky to hold onto a lead till 2016
  • Reply 26 of 50


    Originally Posted by petrosy View Post

    only a few years ago the same was said about android phones..... and the same arrogant disbelief was shown. Apple should be so lucky to hold onto a lead till 2016


     


    What? How is this… right?

  • Reply 27 of 50
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    W
    jd_in_sb wrote: »
    What garbage. Android market share has never been anywhere near 40%. Single digits at best.

    mjtomlin wrote: »
    They're talking about shipments, not necessarily sales. As more and more tablets enter the market there is no place for anyone else to go but down.

    Apple's numbers are driven by demand, everyone else so far is nothing more than desire - They hope to sell what they're shipping.
    When RIM and HP shipped tablets that couldn't sell, they were forced to write down the inventory and orchestrate fire sales. But in each case, the numbers were around 1-2M units. The Android volume cited here is more like 10-20M units. Do you seriously believe companies are shipping and not selling that many? Shouldn't we be seeing write downs?

    Lest we forget, B&N and Amazon are selling Android machines (and not just shipping).

    I do agree that it's premature to assume MS will have a notable presence in the tablet market.
  • Reply 28 of 50
    nhtnht Posts: 4,522member


    IF I primarily play on the tablet by surfing the web, checking facebook, watching netflix and playing games AND


    IF I didn't mind a keyboard case on my tablet AND


    IF I primarily work using a keyboard and mouse on Windows apps THEN


    I could see buying a Surface Pro.


     


    I don't mind the sharp change between legacy and "modern" modes because I'm also mentally switching modes when I switch from work to play.  Laptop mode = work.  Tablet mode = play.


     


    I've always wished that the MBA could turn into an iPad by undocking the screen so I only had to have one machine.  I like OSX to much to switch but if I was Windows only then I'd seriously it.

  • Reply 29 of 50
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    petrosy wrote: »
    only a few years ago the same was said about android phones..... and the same arrogant disbelief was shown. Apple should be so lucky to hold onto a lead till 2016

    I don't know if it has to do with arrogance. But you're right. There once was contempt about genuine number of Android activations. Even Apple got into the gamesmanship a bit. The tide started to turn in Amdroid's favor even before Galaxy became a best seller. But once it did, the data became irrefutable. So what barrier is there to prevent a repeat of history?
  • Reply 30 of 50


    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

    …activations. …But once it did, the data became irrefutable.




    Right, like how the number of sold phones stated was exposed as a lie when the actual numbers were uncovered. And how they report shipped (or don't report at all) instead of sold. And in this irrefutable data, do they ever explain what an 'activation' is? image

  • Reply 31 of 50
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member

    Right, like how the number of sold phones stated was exposed as a lie when the actual numbers were uncovered. And how they report shipped (or don't report at all) instead of sold. And in this irrefutable data, do they ever explain what an 'activation' is? :lol:

    Are you refuting the fact that Android phones are outselling IPhones?
  • Reply 32 of 50
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member

    Right, like how the number of sold phones stated was exposed as a lie when the actual numbers were uncovered. And how they report shipped (or don't report at all) instead of sold. And in this irrefutable data, do they ever explain what an 'activation' is? :lol:

    Are you refuting the fact that Android phones are outselling IPhones?

    We are so past the silly argument over defining activation. It's not Android v. iOS anymore on the phone front. It's Samsung v Apple.
  • Reply 33 of 50

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post





    Are you refuting the fact that Android phones are outselling IPhones?



     


     


    Quote:


    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post





    Are you refuting the fact that Android phones are outselling IPhones?




    I don't think anyone is refuting that. So no need to make your point twice.

  • Reply 34 of 50


    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

    Are you refuting the fact that Android phones are outselling IPhones?


     


    I'm refuting your belief that activated = shipped = sold = used.

  • Reply 35 of 50
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    I'm refuting your belief that activated = shipped = sold = used.

    That ship has sailed, my tall friend.
  • Reply 36 of 50

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post



    We are so past the silly argument over defining activation. It's not Android v. iOS anymore on the phone front. It's Samsung v Apple.


    That is true ... for the moment.

  • Reply 37 of 50
    Well I'm guessing this not calculating things like the IPad mini I'd be surprised if not just 5% is gained just do to that not including future Models.
  • Reply 38 of 50


    This difference with Android is that it's achieving volume by selling at price points that vary from zero dollars to Apple-comparable prices on any number of brand manufacturers at retailer outlets that run the gamut from telco stores to mass market grocery stores.  I never really made the argument one would "win" over the other because it became clear that Android was going to end up on a bunch of crap products from no-name manufacturers sold at just about every outlet willing to bring them in hoping to cash in on the "tablet" wave.  When you see Android tablets at Dollar Tree and Dollar General, it doesn't suggest quality product to me.


     


    Apple doesn't need or even care to go after the price only market.  It's a race to the bottom where no one wins, not even the consumer, because they end up getting a product that offers a sub-par user experience.  Retailers get fooled into thinking that a $49 tablet that they paid $30 for will fly off the shelf, because, well because it's $49 and the next closest competitor is selling a similar Android tablet for $79 and both, when compared to the iPad at $499+ makes the Android tablets such a better deal.


     


    I say, let Android take the crown of being on the most handsets and even tablets, because that really doesn't matter to anyone, especially given where they're generating numbers.  I'll take a quality product with great user experience over price any day.

  • Reply 39 of 50

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jmgregory1 View Post


    This difference with Android is that it's achieving volume by selling at price points that vary from zero dollars to Apple-comparable prices on any number of brand manufacturers at retailer outlets that run the gamut from telco stores to mass market grocery stores.  I never really made the argument one would "win" over the other because it became clear that Android was going to end up on a bunch of crap products from no-name manufacturers sold at just about every outlet willing to bring them in hoping to cash in on the "tablet" wave.  When you see Android tablets at Dollar Tree and Dollar General, it doesn't suggest quality product to me.


     


    Apple doesn't need or even care to go after the price only market.  It's a race to the bottom where no one wins, not even the consumer, because they end up getting a product that offers a sub-par user experience.  Retailers get fooled into thinking that a $49 tablet that they paid $30 for will fly off the shelf, because, well because it's $49 and the next closest competitor is selling a similar Android tablet for $79 and both, when compared to the iPad at $499+ makes the Android tablets such a better deal.


     


    I say, let Android take the crown of being on the most handsets and even tablets, because that really doesn't matter to anyone, especially given where they're generating numbers.  I'll take a quality product with great user experience over price any day.





    There is an Android exception that invalidates your argument - Samsung. They are unquestionably making a very good profit from their Galaxy line, which is also the gorilla in Android land.

  • Reply 40 of 50
    rfhjrrfhjr Posts: 44member
    Wow, IDC is able to 'see' the market in 2016! This is just amazing. Oh, I remember that they predicted RIM's demise back in 2008. Hmm, come to think of it, they missed that one. How about Intel and MS sucking wind? Nope, missed those, too.

    But now, we can be confident that the IDC crystal ball has de-fogged, and has the inside track on the next four or five iPad generations. Comforting!
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